PDA

View Full Version : NTRP ratings and holding serve.


tennisfreak
08-29-2004, 07:12 PM
Generally, what percentage of service games should a player win against a similarly NTRP rated player for the range of NTRP ratings? For example, I'm guessing a 7.0 world class player probably holds service about 90% of the time against another 7.0 . How should a 4.0 be able to do against another 4.0, a 5.0 against another 5.0, etc.?

Mikael
08-29-2004, 07:50 PM
I'm guessing it would be (well) under 50% for 1-2.0 players since they lose many points by hitting doublefaults and don't get any free service points. The 50% mark may come at about 3.5, and after that, depending on the player and the surface, the percentage keeps going up... Just guessing here, but it is a very interesting topic.

perfmode
08-29-2004, 07:55 PM
Generally, what percentage of service games should a player win against a similarly NTRP rated player for the range of NTRP ratings? For example, I'm guessing a 7.0 world class player probably holds service about 90% of the time against another 7.0 . How should a 4.0 be able to do against another 4.0, a 5.0 against another 5.0, etc.?

Pro men hold serve around 80% of the time. Sampras held serve 90% of the time.

The average recreational player holds serve about 50-50 according to "winning ugly".

kevhen
08-30-2004, 08:52 AM
My guess for men would be around:
3.5 50%
4.0 55%
4.5 60%
5.0 65%
6.0 70%
7.0 75%

I agree that at 3.5 it's about 50% and goes up from there. The top pros hold from 80-90% depeding on the surface but the average pro would be less than that more like 70-75%.

The women's game has many more breaks in it with better returners than servers, maybe due to less height and strength and focusing more on groundstrokes than the serve as a weapon. Average pro woman probably holds about 60% of the time.

perfmode
08-30-2004, 02:31 PM
My guess for men would be around:
3.5 50%
4.0 55%
4.5 60%
5.0 65%
6.0 70%
7.0 75%

I agree that at 3.5 it's about 50% and goes up from there. The top pros hold from 80-90% depeding on the surface but the average pro would be less than that more like 70-75%.

The women's game has many more breaks in it with better returners than servers, maybe due to less height and strength and focusing more on groundstrokes than the serve as a weapon. Average pro woman probably holds about 60% of the time.

^^ Very accurate. Did you read winning ugly?

kevhen
08-30-2004, 02:46 PM
Yes, a couple of years ago, but no those are just guesses from matches I have seen and played at those levels. I tend to hold serve more than the average 4.0 but that is my big strength, but most 4.0s just get there serve in and start the rally from there with maybe a couple of doubles per set but offset by more than that in missed returns. 3.5s usually double once or twice per game which offset their one or two nice serves per game and puts them at 50% against other 3.5s. 4.5s know how hard and where to hit their serves to be effective and efficient to setup the rest of the point despite not usually having huge serves. 5.0s start having big serves and with lots of spin and good placement too.

TwistServe
08-30-2004, 02:49 PM
I'm guessing it would be (well) under 50% for 1-2.0 players since they lose many points by hitting doublefaults and don't get any free service points. The 50% mark may come at about 3.5, and after that, depending on the player and the surface, the percentage keeps going up... Just guessing here, but it is a very interesting topic.

I think this is an incorrect statement... Most 3.5 and lower players lose service games because their serve sux, not because they double fault.... Most players at that rating "dink" the second serve and sometimes the first serve. Since they don't have the technical skills to do a topspin or kick serve, they play it safe with a "dink"... Hense no double fault

kevhen
08-30-2004, 02:56 PM
Well they can either double fault it away or dink it away that is true, but it's still about 50% on holds of serve over the long run against other 3.5s. Usually it's the 3.0s around here that dink their second serves since the other 3.0s don't take advantage of that. 3.5s can take advantage of dinky seconds most of the time so the 3.5s around here don't hit them too much and either try to spin them in or hit low flat serves but not too many pure dinks of serve.

3.0 45% holds of serve
2.5 35%
2.0 25%

Mikael
08-30-2004, 05:28 PM
Some may dink them, especially older players... But I see many, many, many younger sub 3.0 players that try to blast the ball on the serve and they end up doublefaulting more often in one set than Dementieva in a match. They try to serve like the pros they see on TV but they don't have the technique and the control.

kevhen
08-31-2004, 06:28 AM
That's pretty true of many young boys all the way up to the 3.5 level. Women (and old men) seem a bit smarter in trying to get their serves in and making the opponent actually beat them than just beating themselves, but the young guys have too much adrenaline pumping to know any better.

jun
08-31-2004, 10:25 AM
well the thing is players who are 3.0~3.5 may have bad serve, but they don't return as well either.

In other words, 3.0 could dink in their serves, and the other guy could hit it over the fence. We can see that it happens by looking at posts such as "how do i return weak serves?" I am sure there are some correlation between NTRP rating and holding serves. But it has also got to do with how each person backs their serve up.

Looking at the description 4.5 will play percentage and stand upto the pressure. And we can interpret that as 4.5 person will make first serve at a crucial point and set their shots up. However 4.0 player might play low percentage and miss their 1st serve. With that saying I think there would be a big difference in serve holding percetage between 4.5 and 4.0s

kevhen
08-31-2004, 01:34 PM
But returners get better too as you move up so the percentage of holds just creeps up gradually. Now 2 babies playing at the 1.0 level will never get the ball over the net so they would hold 0% so it goes up from there to about 50% at the 3.5 level. Now at the very top of the game it's almost 100% with matches like the last Sampras and Agassi match pointing that possibility out.

thehustler
09-11-2004, 12:39 AM
I almost find it hard to agree with these stats. I guess I could see on average a lot of players at 3.5 or 4.0 might hold 50-55% based on how the stats are taken. Personally in the last few days I've been keeping track of my hold % and break %, which of course this thread inspired me to do. I'm playing at the 3.5-4.0 level and I just did a tournament where I held 87% of the time and broke 73% of my opponents serves. Now take their hold and break % against me and it all evens out to whatever %. I don't have any stats for my friends, but will keep track if they ask, just to get a good idea of what the average player holds and breaks. I think it is hard to put a % on the average player, but I can see how it can all balance out with the extreme #'s, my high % and my opponents low % and so on. I think a good 3.5-4.0 player needs to hold at about 65% and probably break around 60% as well to really be near the top of their skill level and be able to go deep in tournaments. I think anything lower than that and you might get a few quality wins here and there, but more often than not you'll be beaten time and time again. JMHO.

jediknightdan
09-17-2004, 01:21 PM
1

kevhen
09-17-2004, 01:42 PM
You have a 14% discrepancy between holds and breaks 87/73. That would put you in 4.0 territory. Since you are going deep in 3.5 tournaments, you may actually be 4.0 but haven't gotten bumped up yet.

I tend to hold/break about 60/40 against other strong 4.0s. Against weak 4.0s it's like 75/55 and against strong 3.5s it's like 95/75 for a 20% discrepancy against all levels.

The higher you go, the higher the discrepancy, like the Sampras-Agassi match where the discrepancy was a full 100% with no breaks but typically it's 80/20 for pros for about a 60% discrepancy.

thehustler
09-18-2004, 12:15 AM
I kind of figured I'm in 4.0 territory. I will be trying it out starting in October doing WTT. I'm just trying to make sure that when I look at my stats it will be good enough for a higher level. I figure there are 3 types of people at every level. Those who are just barely and still need work, but can beat anyone below their level, but not many above them. There are those who can handle people below them with ease and have success with those above them, but aren't ready yet for that next step. Then there are those who are at the top of their level and are ready for the next skill level. These people can handle anyone at their level and below and have had some success against people above them. My goal at least before I move up a level is to at least be that middle player, so I can at least have something to look forward to and feel good when I play at a higher level, instead of just walking right in and getting killed time and time again. My goal is to keep those 2 numbers as close as possible, with the serve hold % being higher. How would you say you do against the strong 4.0's? Win a lot of easy matches, or lots of close ones? Just trying to get an idea to see what the level difference really is. TIA.