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View Full Version : Fed's #1 ranking is in threat


roysid
05-03-2007, 05:56 AM
In the ATP race (which takes points for only the current year), after Barcelona
Nadal - 365
Fed - 346
This is because Fed did poorly in IndianWells and Miami.

So, Nadal is already leading. And most probably would increase the lead as Rome, Hamburg and French Open is coming.

Fed then has grass and hard court seasons to recover. But if Nadal also manages good performances, he might just hang on to the lead. By the end of the year, Nadal could be #1.

Note: ATP rankings takes the points for past 12 months and it that system the points are 5 times the race points. There
Fed - 7290
Nadal - 4890

latinking
05-03-2007, 06:00 AM
Yeah but Fed would have to do bad at Rome and french but most likely he would be in both Finals, but It is a chance. Don't think it will happen but you never know.

Andres
05-03-2007, 06:01 AM
In the ATP race (which takes points for only the current year), after Barcelona
Nadal - 365
Fed - 346
This is because Fed did poorly in IndianWells and Miami.

Note: ATP rankings takes the points for past 12 months and it that system the points are 5 times the race points. There
Fed - 7290
Nadal - 4890


So, Nadal is already leading. And most probably would increase the lead as Rome, Hamburg and French Open is coming.

Fed then has grass and hard court seasons to recover. But if Nadal also manages good performances, he might just hang on to the lead. By the end of the year, Nadal could be #1.
In the Race, leading to the Masters Cup.

Even if he does get to #1, he still wouldn't be #1 in the entry, unless Roger loses early on Wimbledon and USO, and Nadal manages to at least, defend his points there.

illkhiboy
05-03-2007, 06:23 AM
In the Race, leading to the Masters Cup.

Even if he does get to #1, he still wouldn't be #1 in the entry, unless Roger loses early on Wimbledon and USO, and Nadal manages to at least, defend his points there.

What do you mean by "early?" Before the final? Or in the early rounds?
If they both play Rome, Hamburg and French Open and Nadal beats Federer in the final of all three (unlikley, as I think Nadal will skip Hamburg and Federer will win it) he will have 765 points in the race, while Federer would be 626.
Let's say, after that, Federer wins Halle and Wimbledon while Nadal makes the semi at Wimbledon and Queens. Then
Federer = 876
Nadal = 865

However if Nadal manages to win Queens or make the final of Wimbledon again he will be ahead of Federer. After that, Nadal has to outdo Federer by a little bit on the US hardcourts and European fall tournaments. It's not very likely, but possible considering that he did just that in March, albeit over a short period of time.
For now, the race is heating up!! This should be advertised more now. When did this last happen? 2003 when Agassi, Roddick, Federer and Ferrero were battling for the top spot.

Andres
05-03-2007, 07:00 AM
The thing is that you're only paying attention to the race, and the race only cares for the spots at the TMC.

Yeah, if Nadal manages to go through, and be the race's #1 at the end of the year, it means Nadal had a better year, but unless Fed loses early in those slams, and the faster MS left (and assuming Rafa will defend his points), Nadal won't be #1 in the Entry Ranking (the REAL ranking)

onkystomper
05-03-2007, 07:12 AM
There is a difference betwen the Race to Masters Cup and overall ranking points on the ATP tour. Even if Nadal wins the race by 100 points Federer will still be well ahead of him in the ATP rankings.

learn about it here www.atptennis.com

kingdaddy41788
05-03-2007, 07:30 AM
Nadal can't increase his lead (in the rankings, not the race because the race is insignificant) on clay because he already has pretty much the maximum amount of points he can obtain on clay. He has to use the grass and hard court seasons if he wants to gain on Fed. Fed is very safe, at least for now...

caulcano
05-03-2007, 08:12 AM
The thing is that you're only paying attention to the race, and the race only cares for the spots at the TMC.

Yeah, if Nadal manages to go through, and be the race's #1 at the end of the year, it means Nadal had a better year, but unless Fed loses early in those slams, and the faster MS left (and assuming Rafa will defend his points), Nadal won't be #1 in the Entry Ranking (the REAL ranking)

I'll drink to that.

pabloJD
05-03-2007, 08:18 AM
There is a difference betwen the Race to Masters Cup and overall ranking points on the ATP tour. Even if Nadal wins the race by 100 points Federer will still be well ahead of him in the ATP rankings.

learn about it here www.atptennis.com

what do you mean?
should we read "Nadal leads the race by..."?

JLyon
05-03-2007, 09:22 AM
Nadal only leads the current years points race so right now he is #1 in points race to TMS. He is far behind Federer for overall #1 ranking. Nadal will not pass Federer this year as he has a ton of points to defend in Rome, Paris, and Wimbledon. He could easily defend the clay but I would have hard time believing he can make another run to Wimby Finals. Nadal must have an outstanding Hard Court and Indoor run to make a dent in Fed's overall ranking lead.

caulcano
05-03-2007, 09:42 AM
Nadal only leads the current years points race so right now he is #1 in points race to TMS. He is far behind Federer for overall #1 ranking. Nadal will not pass Federer this year as he has a ton of points to defend in Rome, Paris, and Wimbledon. He could easily defend the clay but I would have hard time believing he can make another run to Wimby Finals. Nadal must have an outstanding Hard Court and Indoor run to make a dent in Fed's overall ranking lead.

Either that or Federer has a bad second half year....

kingdaddy41788
05-03-2007, 09:55 AM
Either that or Federer has a bad second half year....

Which is highly unlikely... And it'd have to be a really, REALLY bad second half year. Like, I think he might have to not play the two majors.

caulcano
05-03-2007, 10:07 AM
Which is highly unlikely... And it'd have to be a really, REALLY bad second half year. Like, I think he might have to not play the two majors.

Yeah, I was just trying to make a point that anything is possible in tennis.

fastdunn
05-03-2007, 11:50 AM
It depends on how much challenge these new generations of players
(Djokovic, Murray, Gasquet, Baghdatis) will give Federer on fast court.
(Oh maybe I should include "new old" generations player Canas).

In the 2nd half of 2007 and 2008, these will be key opponents that
Federer and Nadal should beat (not veterans like Lubjicic, Robredo,
Davydenko, Blake). I wouldn't count out Nalbandian because I believe
he is very talented and can come back any time.

Asumming Nadal will be unbeatable at clay all thru the season.

illkhiboy
05-03-2007, 02:17 PM
The thing is that you're only paying attention to the race, and the race only cares for the spots at the TMC.

Yeah, if Nadal manages to go through, and be the race's #1 at the end of the year, it means Nadal had a better year, but unless Fed loses early in those slams, and the faster MS left (and assuming Rafa will defend his points), Nadal won't be #1 in the Entry Ranking (the REAL ranking)

No Andres you seem to be misunderstanding the Race my friend. Race after the TMC equals = Entry Ranking. Thus Race becomes the "real" ranking.
Again I 'm unsure of what you mean by Federer losing early? Early as in early rounds? Or early as in not winning the tournament? Cause Federer could make finals and semis but as long as Nadal keeps doing better we will have a new World Number one by the end of the year (or sooner).

illkhiboy
05-03-2007, 02:20 PM
Which is highly unlikely... And it'd have to be a really, REALLY bad second half year. Like, I think he might have to not play the two majors.

No you're wrong. Federer could have a good (by ordinary standards) 2nd half of the year, let's say winning a TMS event and maybe a Slam but as long as Nadal maintains his lead in the race he will overtake Federer in the Entry Rankings. But the likelihood of that happening is unlikely, so you're right about that.

Mikael
05-03-2007, 05:27 PM
No Andres you seem to be misunderstanding the Race my friend. Race after the TMC equals = Entry Ranking. Thus Race becomes the "real" ranking.
Again I 'm unsure of what you mean by Federer losing early? Early as in early rounds? Or early as in not winning the tournament? Cause Federer could make finals and semis but as long as Nadal keeps doing better we will have a new World Number one by the end of the year (or sooner).

IIRC Race on Dec 31st =/= Entry ranking because there are minor differences in both systems, but of course barring a few points (or tens of points) here or there it is the same.

Nadal being no1 at the end of the year is unlikely but possible, I'd say there is a 30% chance more or less. It all rests on his hardcourt and indoor performance, because he can't really improve on his clay and grass points, only do worse. Federer OTOH I can see doing better on clay (like winning the French Open or Roma). Then Federer's problem is that he can't really do better than last year, except the loss to Murray in Cincy I believe he was undefeated after the French. So after the French Fed has basically no way to go but down, or duplicate his 2006 performance, which is highly unlikely in my opinion. However even more unlikely in my opinion would be a significant improvement for Nadal on hardcourts, he is just too vulnerable there. So I predict the gap will tighten between the two, but Fed will still be no1.

roysid
05-04-2007, 02:07 AM
IIRC Race on Dec 31st =/= Entry ranking because there are minor differences in both systems, but of course barring a few points (or tens of points) here or there it is the same.

Nadal being no1 at the end of the year is unlikely but possible, I'd say there is a 30% chance more or less. It all rests on his hardcourt and indoor performance, because he can't really improve on his clay and grass points, only do worse. Federer OTOH I can see doing better on clay (like winning the French Open or Roma). Then Federer's problem is that he can't really do better than last year, except the loss to Murray in Cincy I believe he was undefeated after the French. So after the French Fed has basically no way to go but down, or duplicate his 2006 performance, which is highly unlikely in my opinion. However even more unlikely in my opinion would be a significant improvement for Nadal on hardcourts, he is just too vulnerable there. So I predict the gap will tighten between the two, but Fed will still be no1.
I agree with you Mikael. Only that the last tournament in the year is TMC which is in November. After that ATP race and rankings list become same.

I feel that Nadal will do better than last year. He didn't reach a single semi-final after Wimbledon till Sanghai. But Federer is expected to perform better than Nadal and maintain the lead.

Baghdatis72
05-04-2007, 02:52 AM
You never know what could happen this year and huge surprises do happen once every few years so maybe this is the year for a huge surprise. Perhaps it's time for another player to manifest and stop Federer from winning the Wimbledon or the US Open. Maybe Nadal has bad draws in both events and goes out from the second round or maybe Canas ousts Federer in the US Open from the 3rd round and Roddick reached the final against Nadal.
Also Djokovic might take out Federer in the US Open or Wimbledon and deprive him of crucial points. After all this year Federer has the most competition for the last 4 years that he's been number 1 and several players start blossoming very fast (Canas, Nadal, Djokovic) and this will make things really hard for him compared to previous years where he won the Wimby and US Open quite easily.

GOD_BLESS_RAFA
05-04-2007, 05:12 AM
who knows? Djokovic may do well in the US Open and Murray in Wimbledon...to disturb Federer

illkhiboy
05-04-2007, 05:58 AM
IIRC Race on Dec 31st =/= Entry ranking because there are minor differences in both systems, but of course barring a few points (or tens of points) here or there it is the same.


No, there is no difference.

kingdaddy41788
05-04-2007, 06:05 AM
No you're wrong. Federer could have a good (by ordinary standards) 2nd half of the year, let's say winning a TMS event and maybe a Slam but as long as Nadal maintains his lead in the race he will overtake Federer in the Entry Rankings. But the likelihood of that happening is unlikely, so you're right about that.

If Federer wins a slam, Nadal would almost certainly have to win the other 2 for the year to beat him. But, as we've seen, Nadal always sucks it up quite nicely after the clay season (it carried over to grass a little last year). He will not overtake the #1 spot from Federer this year, barring some kind of extraordinary event. It just won't happen.

kingdaddy41788
05-04-2007, 06:08 AM
who knows? Djokovic may do well in the US Open and Murray in Wimbledon...to disturb Federer

Djokovic Scenario: Believable
Murray Scenario: Unlikely, IMO

Zaragoza
05-04-2007, 06:12 AM
If Federer wins a slam, Nadal would almost certainly have to win the other 2 for the year to beat him. But, as we've seen, Nadal always sucks it up quite nicely after the clay season (it carried over to grass a little last year). He will not overtake the #1 spot from Federer this year, barring some kind of extraordinary event. It just won't happen.

"Always" or in 2006? Because he won Montreal and Madrid in 2005. He will get better results after Wimbledon than last year. QF in the USO and SF in the Masters Cup (biggest events after July) were not horrible results. He is a better player now. I don´t understand why some people are surprised that he can improve his game at 20.

kingdaddy41788
05-04-2007, 06:15 AM
I suppose the word "always" is a bit extreme. I'm sure he is a better player this year, and I won't deny that. But we've seen him lose to players that Federer consistently beats (Blake, Berdych, and co.) and it's likely that he'll come across these players. It would appear that Federer's only real hurdles to jump over are Nadal and Cañas. Nadal has many more hurdles (except, of course, on clay).

Andres
05-04-2007, 06:20 AM
If Federer wins a slam, Nadal would almost certainly have to win the other 2 for the year to beat him. But, as we've seen, Nadal always sucks it up quite nicely after the clay season (it carried over to grass a little last year). He will not overtake the #1 spot from Federer this year, barring some kind of extraordinary event. It just won't happen.
If Fed wins a slam, it's around the same points Nadal has earned for the two MS shields he won and Fed didn't.

Nadal may not win Wimby or the USO, but he can make it up winning Montreal/Toronto and/or Madrid, as he has done it in the past.

If Nadal keeps this rate in hardcourts master series (played very well in Miami and Indian Wells), this race is going to be niiiice!

But I'm expecting Fed to remain #1 by the end of the year, with a 1000-1500 pts margin.

kimizz
05-04-2007, 06:25 AM
But, as we've seen, Nadal always sucks it up quite nicely after the clay season (it carried over to grass a little last year).

EDIT:I sayd something Zaragoza mentioned allready...

About the Fed losing nr1 spot. Everything can happen, never say never. There is approx 4000points for federer to defend after clay season.(WIMB,USO,Canada,Madrid and the masters cup+some atp events) If you think Nadal has it tough defending few clay titles look what Fed has to win...

kingbishop
05-04-2007, 06:26 AM
Well... it is plausible for Nadal to take the #1 spot, because he will win the rest of teh clay season, make it to the wimbledon finals(possibly win if he adjusts) , then make it to the US open finals, then also win many of teh masters series tournaments in between. Of course winning wimbledon and teh US open will be tough for Rafa, i believe that he can. Everybody talks about the Roger slam(hoping he will win all surfaces in one year), but by next year im pretty sure we need to start talking RAFA SLAM!

kingdaddy41788
05-04-2007, 06:32 AM
Well... it is plausible for Nadal to take the #1 spot, because he will win the rest of teh clay season, make it to the wimbledon finals(possibly win if he adjusts) , then make it to the US open finals, then also win many of teh masters series tournaments in between. Of course winning wimbledon and teh US open will be tough for Rafa, i believe that he can. Everybody talks about the Roger slam(hoping he will win all surfaces in one year), but by next year im pretty sure we need to start talking RAFA SLAM!

Really? It's one thing for people to assume Roger will be in the finals at wimbledon (he's won it 4 times in a row now) and the US Open (won it 3 times in a row). It's entirely another for people to assume Nadal will get to the Wimbledon final, as last year was a bit of an anomaly - as I've said before, a player who uses extreme spin like that shouldn't ever make it anywhere on grass. He's also not had a good result at the US Open. I'm sorry folks, but odds are he won't be surpassing Federer anytime this year, and it won't probably won't happen next year either.

Andres
05-04-2007, 06:43 AM
He's also not had a good result at the US Open.
Quarterfinals seems like a good result to me. Youzhny was on fire that day.

kingdaddy41788
05-04-2007, 07:09 AM
Quarterfinals seems like a good result to me. Youzhny was on fire that day.

Let me rephrase: He hasn't made the final yet, so there's no reason to expect that he will.

Andres
05-04-2007, 07:14 AM
Let me rephrase: He hasn't made the final yet, so there's no reason to expect that he will.
It's like saying Fed wasn't expected to win Wimby, cause he didn't make it to the final in his 4 previous attempts.

Nadal is steadily improving on hardcourts. A USO final, in my opinion, is not out of the question.

He's been playing impressively on hard this year, beating Roddick, Djokovic, Chela, Ferrero, Clement, Verdasco, Baghdatis, Andreev, Murray, Wawrinka (and neither of them are slouchs on hard).

I believe the best of Nadal is yet to come.

Hops
05-04-2007, 08:23 AM
No, there is no difference.


http://************.com/rankings/2006/s112006.htm

Safin #26

http://************.com/rankings/2006/r112006.txt

Safin #25

illkhiboy
05-04-2007, 08:55 AM
http://************.com/rankings/2006/s112006.htm

Safin #26

http://************.com/rankings/2006/r112006.txt

Safin #25

I see the difference but it seems very complicated to me to comprehend. May be the difference is due to the complications of the protected ranking? Otherwise, logically it makes sense that the points tally up to be the same in both the rankings.

Hops
05-04-2007, 09:02 AM
I see the difference but it seems very complicated to me to comprehend. May be the difference is due to the complications of the protected ranking? Otherwise, logically it makes sense that the points tally up to be the same in both the rankings.


http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showpost.php?p=1351602&postcount=51

caulcano
05-04-2007, 10:10 AM
I see the difference but it seems very complicated to me to comprehend. May be the difference is due to the complications of the protected ranking? Otherwise, logically it makes sense that the points tally up to be the same in both the rankings.

Current Race pts is calculated from tournaments beginning 01 Jan 07 until now.

Current Rankings pts is calculated from tournaments in the last 12 monts.

illkhiboy
05-04-2007, 10:12 AM
Current Race pts is calculated from tournaments beginning 01 Jan 07 until now.

Current Rankings pts is calculated from tournaments in the last 12 monts.

I know but you're taking my quote out of context.

edberg505
05-04-2007, 03:22 PM
I'm sorry, but I'm not buying into the whole, Nadal the all surface player just yet. What happend to his much anticipated '07 Aussie Open title? People had all but given him the trophy for the AO. Some people completely want to overlook the beatdown that he suffered at the hands of Gonzo at the AO and the fact that he barely got past Murrary. Yes, he did win the IW this year. I'm not taking that away from him, it was a great win. But the bottom line is certain players still have his number on hardcourts. And I'm willing to bet that those same players can have his number on grass as well if he would ever face them. I mean you can almost just pencil in Roger Federer into the final of any tournament he enters (not counting the IW and Miami anomalies this year). But can you say the same for Nadal when he isn't on clay? Let me put it this way, I wouldn't bet my life on it.

edmondsm
05-04-2007, 03:41 PM
Nadal can't increase his lead (in the rankings, not the race because the race is insignificant) on clay because he already has pretty much the maximum amount of points he can obtain on clay. He has to use the grass and hard court seasons if he wants to gain on Fed. Fed is very safe, at least for now...

Unless Fed goes out early in Rome and at the FO. Fed could lose a lot of points and the gap would narrow considerably. And since Rafa doesn't have a whole lot to defend on the summer hard-courts a good performance there could have him and Fed neck and neck.

Judging from past results though, I would say the more likely senario is Nadal losing a bunch of points by going out early at Wimbledon which would almost guarantee Fed another year end #1.

pabloJD
05-05-2007, 06:47 AM
http://************.com/rankings/2006/s112006.htm

Safin #26

http://************.com/rankings/2006/r112006.txt

Safin #25

The difference is that the race doesn't consider points from lesser tournaments (challenger, futures). Top players don't usually play those, but in this case Soderling is ahead of Safin in the rankings because of challenger points (that weren't considered in the race). That won't happen with Federer or Nadal.

iplaybetter
05-05-2007, 08:21 AM
Fed will not do that badly, he will keep his ranking

kimizz
05-05-2007, 08:39 AM
I'm sorry, but I'm not buying into the whole, Nadal the all surface player just yet. What happend to his much anticipated '07 Aussie Open title? People had all but given him the trophy for the AO. Some people completely want to overlook the beatdown that he suffered at the hands of Gonzo at the AO and the fact that he barely got past Murrary. Yes, he did win the IW this year. I'm not taking that away from him, it was a great win. But the bottom line is certain players still have his number on hardcourts. And I'm willing to bet that those same players can have his number on grass as well if he would ever face them. I mean you can almost just pencil in Roger Federer into the final of any tournament he enters (not counting the IW and Miami anomalies this year). But can you say the same for Nadal when he isn't on clay? Let me put it this way, I wouldn't bet my life on it.

I agree that the AO expectations were too high for Rafa, there was no sign that he could have won the tournament.

Then bout the certain players having numbers on Nadal. Seeing how much Nadal has improved this year on hard courts I think he might turn those numbers around soon. I mean why not? Hes talented, just because he hits with western FH doesnt mean he cant win at Hard courts.

So federer is always the favorite apart from the miami IW anomalies? Thats just it. Before the tournaments it was pretty obvious for most that Fed is going to win them. So why this cant happen in USO for example?

This topic is bout Federer losing nr1 place this year, yeah its unlikely to happen this year. Id say next 2-3 years are intresting and will tell who was right, the Nadal or the Fed fans. Too soon to tell if Nadal can or cannot win majors outside clay...

federerfanatic
05-05-2007, 11:29 AM
Nadal may not win Wimby or the USO, but he can make it up winning Montreal/Toronto and/or Madrid, as he has done it in the past.

The only reason Nadal won Madrid and Canadian Open that year was Federer did not play. So pretty much won by default. The 3 Masters events Federer chose to play that year he won.

illkhiboy
05-05-2007, 12:07 PM
The only reason Nadal won Madrid and Canadian Open that year was Federer did not play. So pretty much won by default. The 3 Masters events Federer chose to play that year he won.

Seeing that Nadal had a close 5-setter against Federer at Miami that year, and beat him at Dubai on a fast hardcourt in early 2006 I wouldn't say that Nadal's victories in the TMS events were only because Federer wasn't playing. But hey, you're free of using reason, so troll on..

fastdunn
05-05-2007, 04:39 PM
There are ever increasing number of signs that new generation of top players
(Djokovic, Murray, Gasquet, Badhdatis, Nadal) are taking over the tour.

Federer successfully defeated a generation of challege (Safin, Hewitt,
Roddick and Nalbandian) and dominated the tour for 3 years.

Let's see how Federer handles the next wave of challenge.
These new players are not the kind of players like Robredo, Davydenko,
Blake, Gonzales, Lubjcic et al.... These are much much better talents...

federerfanatic
05-05-2007, 05:42 PM
There are ever increasing number of signs that new generation of top players
(Djokovic, Murray, Gasquet, Badhdatis, Nadal) are taking over the tour.
...

In your own little fantasy world maybe. I live in the real world. Nadal is doing exactly what he did the last 2 years, dominating on clay, occasionaly winning an event on hard courts but usually losing in the quarters to a flat hitter, same old same old. He is the clear #2 like he has been for 2 years now, great but second fiddle to the king. Djokovic and Murray are progressing but still nowhere close to challenging Federer yet. Djokovic is closer then Murray right now though. Wait until Djokovic or Murray even got past the round of 16 of a grand slam before you suggest they are starting to take over the tour though. Murray has lost in the semis of his last 2 Masters events to Djokovic 6-2, 6-3 and 6-1, 6-0. If Djokovic is embarassing him like that in his biggest matches, he isnt even close to being part of a takeover of anything yet.

Gasquet and Baghdatis are particularly ridiculous to bring up as guys "taking over the tour" right now, just ridiculous. Gasquet is having pretty good results but he is coming up with no big wins either. He is showing he cant even beat Robredo in a round of 16 of a hard court slam, or beat Roddick in the round of 16 of a Masters event even though Fed and Nadal are humiliating Roddick when they play him in the same events, or beat a has been Ferrero in the quarters of a Masters event on clay. Baghdatis is the funniest of all, he has lost 4 straight 1st rounds, and he lost in the 2nd round of the Australian Open where he was defending his final result to Monfils of all people. Yet he is one of those starting to "take over the tour". Boy I would hate to see how he would be doing it he was actually sucking. Baghdatis's 2006 year was a fluke, plain and simple, he isnt anything more then a one-time top tenner like Schuetler and Lapentti.

federerfanatic
05-05-2007, 05:51 PM
Seeing that Nadal had a close 5-setter against Federer at Miami that year,

You dont win squat for getting close. Federer won, Nadal didnt, period. Which is exactly what the Nadal groupies like yourself would say if someone brought up the Rome match last year, and rightfully so.

and beat him at Dubai on a fast hardcourt in early 2006

Not a Masters event. Federer is harder to beat in Masters events then smaller touranments, and then harder again to beat in Slams then Masters. So your point is?

I wouldn't say that Nadal's victories in the TMS events were only because Federer wasn't playing. But hey, you're free of using reason, so troll on..

Federer played 3 Masters events on hard courts in 2005. He won all 3. Federer did not play 2 Masters events on hard courts in 2005 that Nadal played, Nadal ended up winning. In 2006 Federer played all the Masters events Nadal was in, Nadal ends up winning 0. Not rocket science.

tlm
05-05-2007, 06:29 PM
I would love to see rafa take over #1, but i dont think it will happen this year.I do think he has a chance of doing it in the next year or so.Nadal has got get better on the hardcourts it is that simple.

I dont think he will ever play very good on grass, but he doesnt need to.He will be the king of clay for quite a while, but he has to improve on the faster surfaces to really give fed a run!!

pow
05-05-2007, 07:41 PM
It is only in danger if he stops being Roger Federer.
... or gets a doping ban.

fastdunn
05-05-2007, 10:42 PM
In your own little fantasy world maybe. I live in the real world. Nadal is doing exactly what he did the last 2 years, dominating on clay, occasionaly winning an event on hard courts but usually losing in the quarters to a flat hitter, same old same old. He is the clear #2 like he has been for 2 years now, great but second fiddle to the king. Djokovic and Murray are progressing but still nowhere close to challenging Federer yet. Djokovic is closer then Murray right now though. Wait until Djokovic or Murray even got past the round of 16 of a grand slam before you suggest they are starting to take over the tour though. Murray has lost in the semis of his last 2 Masters events to Djokovic 6-2, 6-3 and 6-1, 6-0. If Djokovic is embarassing him like that in his biggest matches, he isnt even close to being part of a takeover of anything yet.

Gasquet and Baghdatis are particularly ridiculous to bring up as guys "taking over the tour" right now, just ridiculous. Gasquet is having pretty good results but he is coming up with no big wins either. He is showing he cant even beat Robredo in a round of 16 of a hard court slam, or beat Roddick in the round of 16 of a Masters event even though Fed and Nadal are humiliating Roddick when they play him in the same events, or beat a has been Ferrero in the quarters of a Masters event on clay. Baghdatis is the funniest of all, he has lost 4 straight 1st rounds, and he lost in the 2nd round of the Australian Open where he was defending his final result to Monfils of all people. Yet he is one of those starting to "take over the tour". Boy I would hate to see how he would be doing it he was actually sucking. Baghdatis's 2006 year was a fluke, plain and simple, he isnt anything more then a one-time top tenner like Schuetler and Lapentti.

federerfanatic, I just want to make it clear that when I say "taking over"
does not necessarily mean taking over Federer. I meant top players in general.
To be more specific, I meant those "other" top 10 players I mentioned in the post.

No offense but you seem to be very sensitive about any remote suggestion
that there is something threatening Federer's reign. So I want to make it
clear.

After I made it clear, I definitely think it's not such a "fantasy" world I'm living in.
It's a reality and already happening. Djokovic and Murray already in top 10.
I think Gasquet and Bagdhatis will join them pretty soon like within a year or so?
(Oh, I'm pretty sure Gasquet will be in top 10 bunting out "other" players
within 3 months). These guys will be more solid top 10 players sooner or later
and these will be the players Federer must beat. And these players are much
better talents than players like Robredo,Davydenko,Lubjcic,Blake,Gonzalez etc..



P.S.

I already know you have different opinion on Gasquet and Baghdatis.
IMHO, Gasquet and Baghdatis are much bigger talent than Djokovic.

I know it's a eye of a beholder thing. "Talent" I mean.
What can I say, you see something different from what I see.

Anyway, let's enjoy our bet...

federerfanatic
05-05-2007, 11:53 PM
federerfanatic, I just want to make it clear that when I say "taking over"
does not necessarily mean taking over Federer. I meant top players in general.
To be more specific, I meant those "other" top 10 players I mentioned in the post.

OK sorry I misinterpreted you. Yes I suppose I could see all 5 of those possibly being mainstays in the top 10, although I disagree on Baghdatis. The other 4 should atleast be in the top 10 for a long time. Berdych might make it too, or might not.

No offense but you seem to be very sensitive about any remote suggestion that there is something threatening Federer's reign. So I want to make it clear.

Not really, but do defend when I see perspective that I strongly oppose-such as players like Baghdatis or Gasquet on the verge of taking over. Plus I have a very agressive posting style, I am much meaner to most posters then I am to you if you look at my posting history. People who annoy me I often insult and attack in a very hostile way. So compared to most I am nice to you.

After I made it clear, I definitely think it's not such a "fantasy" world I'm living in.
It's a reality and already happening. Djokovic and Murray already in top 10.
I think Gasquet and Bagdhatis will join them pretty soon like within a year or so?
(Oh, I'm pretty sure Gasquet will be in top 10 bunting out "other" players
within 3 months). These guys will be more solid top 10 players sooner or later
and these will be the players Federer must beat.

I already said I dont see Baghdatis back in the top 10, but I know we disagree I him. I think 2006 was a career year for him. Berdych might or might not make it as I said. I concede the other 3 you mention will be there awhile with Nadal. However being top 10 does not automaticaly you a chief opponent to Federer, being a perennial top 5 makes you are more direct person Federer has to beat to mantain dominance, as oppose to people who just make the lower half of the top 10 sometimes.

And these players are much better talents than players like Robredo,Davydenko,Lubjcic,Blake,Gonzalez etc..

I agree that Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Gasquet are bigger talents then those particular players. However remember those players were not Federer's biggest competition until last year when Roddick, Hewitt, Safin, and Nalbandian all went into decline. In 2003-2005 Roddick, Hewitt, Safin(except 2003), and Nalbandian(plus Ferrero in 2003) were his biggest competitors, and when those guys were still at their peak those few years it was a very strong group, much better then the group you just named.


P.S.

I already know you have different opinion on Gasquet and Baghdatis.
IMHO, Gasquet and Baghdatis are much bigger talent than Djokovic.

I know it's a eye of a beholder thing. "Talent" I mean.
What can I say, you see something different from what I see.

Anyway, let's enjoy our bet...

Fair enough.

Baghdatis72
05-06-2007, 02:46 AM
Federer's best years are over in my opinion but he will keep a good performance for the years to come despite losing the number 1 spot pretty soon :D
Federer reached a point where he was completely untouchable and no one could beat him on a hard court but that perfect point is gone now and he will very slowly decay in time until his retirement where he will lose consistently from top 10 players.
Right now the only players who can beat him are Canas, Nadal and Djokovic from the way they play but they are enough to cause Federer enough problems and endanger his number 1 spot and they ain't getting any worse as time progresses ;)

illkhiboy
05-06-2007, 03:21 AM
Federer's best years are over in my opinion but he will keep a good performance for the years to come despite losing the number 1 spot pretty soon :D
Federer reached a point where he was completely untouchable and no one could beat him on a hard court but that perfect point is gone now and he will very slowly decay in time until his retirement where he will lose consistently from top 10 players.
Right now the only players who can beat him are Canas, Nadal and Djokovic from the way they play but they are enough to cause Federer enough problems and endanger his number 1 spot and they ain't getting any worse as time progresses ;)

Djokovic has taken how many sets from Federer uptil now?

Baghdatis72
05-06-2007, 03:40 AM
Djokovic has taken how many sets from Federer uptil now?

2 sets and he will take much more in the years to come :D

illkhiboy
05-06-2007, 03:48 AM
2 sets and he will take much more in the years to come :D

He probably will. I will be rooting for him. But to claim that 'Right now the only players who can beat him are Canas, Nadal and Djokovic' is laughable. So far, Gasquet and Nalbandian have performed better against Federer than Djokovic.

federerfanatic
05-06-2007, 06:08 AM
Federer's best years are over in my opinion but he will keep a good performance for the years to come despite losing the number 1 spot pretty soon :D
Federer reached a point where he was completely untouchable and no one could beat him on a hard court but that perfect point is gone now and he will very slowly decay in time until his retirement where he will lose consistently from top 10 players.
Right now the only players who can beat him are Canas, Nadal and Djokovic from the way they play but they are enough to cause Federer enough problems and endanger his number 1 spot and they ain't getting any worse as time progresses ;)

Canas is a 29 old solid journeyman, not some up and coming star. To suggest it only goes uphill for him from here is ridiculous. Given the fact he beat Federer back to back matches, only further shows the higher reality is for a 29 year old second tier player(at best) is his career highlight has already taken place a couple months back. Djokovic has a long way to go to prove himself vs Federer, Federer mauled him in Australia, and Djokovic was soundly outplayed in their match in Dubai despite the fact he snuck out the 2nd set somehow. Nadal hasnt proven he can keep up with Federer on anything but clay. You pretty much dont know squat.

The real player whose best days is behind is not Federer, but your username Mr. Baghdatis. Boy was 2006 ever a huge fluke, a slam final, another slam semi, what a joke to think he will repeat that kind of year again. Back to reality now for Mr. Baghdatis, he will join the ranks of the "1 dream year" flashes in the pan of top 10 players like Schuettler and Lapentti. Federer will continue winning 2 or 3 slams every year, while Baghdatis will etch his name in the list of "1 year wonders" that were not all that much of a wonder even in that 1 year for each.

EasternRocks
05-06-2007, 07:10 AM
Federer needs to win a master series before roland garros ro secure his spot at n0.1 in the world...when he lost to canas in indian wells, meanwhile nadal won it! THere is lots of pressure on him, but i think he can do it!

Baghdatis72
05-06-2007, 07:55 AM
He probably will. I will be rooting for him. But to claim that 'Right now the only players who can beat him are Canas, Nadal and Djokovic' is laughable. So far, Gasquet and Nalbandian have performed better against Federer than Djokovic.


Well firstly Nalbandian prefers watching racing instead of playing tennis at the moment so he doesn't have a chance of beating Federer in this state and Gasquet is not mentally strong enough to beat Federer on any surface (although Rome might prove me wrong).

Canas has beat him twice on hard surfaces in their last 2 meetings so I won't comment any further.
Nadal beats Federer all the time on clay and is improving on hard surfaces too.
Djokovic is improving mentally and technically so fast on all surfaces that he will be able to threaten every player on every surface in a short time. The reason that he didn't beat Federer yet is that Federer plays a similar game to Djokovic in terms of style but Federer is better at it but as Federer gets older and Djokovic reaches his prime things will change a lot and pretty soon.


Canas is a 29 old solid journeyman, not some up and coming star. To suggest it only goes uphill for him from here is ridiculous. Given the fact he beat Federer back to back matches, only further shows the higher reality is for a 29 year old second tier player(at best) is his career highlight has already taken place a couple months back. Djokovic has a long way to go to prove himself vs Federer, Federer mauled him in Australia, and Djokovic was soundly outplayed in their match in Dubai despite the fact he snuck out the 2nd set somehow. Nadal hasnt proven he can keep up with Federer on anything but clay. You pretty much dont know squat.

The real player whose best days is behind is not Federer, but your username Mr. Baghdatis. Boy was 2006 ever a huge fluke, a slam final, another slam semi, what a joke to think he will repeat that kind of year again. Back to reality now for Mr. Baghdatis, he will join the ranks of the "1 dream year" flashes in the pan of top 10 players like Schuettler and Lapentti. Federer will continue winning 2 or 3 slams every year, while Baghdatis will etch his name in the list of "1 year wonders" that were not all that much of a wonder even in that 1 year for each.

Only the way you post shows what kind of person you are and it's an ugly sight.
Firstly Nadal and Djokovic will improve whether you like it or not and Federer will not go much further than he already has as many will agree. Canas has just returned from 15 months of ban and he beats Federer twice on hard courts that Federer was defending from last year. He is going to play better than now for at least one more year since he just returned so he won't get any worse for the near future.
Nadal is getting much better on hard surfaces and he reached Wimbledon last year and won IW in straight sets against very good opponents this year. You will say of course that if he played against Federer then Federer would beat him but Federer couldn't make it there unfortunately :D
If someone doesn't know squat it is you of course because you're so blind with Federer that you can't see anything past him and everyone else is crap for you. This doesn't make you a tennis fan but a Federer fan which is very different.

What does Baghdatis have to do with this debate? This isn't a Baghdatis vs Federer debate. If there is someone who said that Baghdatis is playing crap then that's me but the only thing that you care is to **** other people off and feel good about yourself for supporting the number 1 player on tour. Some people support players just because they like their style or craziness or for any other personal reasons and not because they believe that they are the best. Those who support the best because they became the best are not real fans but people who like supporting the winning sides to benefit their ego. Do us a favor and stop infesting the forum with crap.

HollerOne5
05-06-2007, 08:04 AM
There is a difference betwen the Race to Masters Cup and overall ranking points on the ATP tour. Even if Nadal wins the race by 100 points Federer will still be well ahead of him in the ATP rankings.

learn about it here www.atptennis.com

Wow, there is nothing correct about the statement

52 week race equals the entry system (in order but not points) at the end of the year!

federerfanatic
05-06-2007, 12:26 PM
Well firstly Nalbandian prefers watching racing instead of playing tennis at the moment so he doesn't have a chance of beating Federer in this state and Gasquet is not mentally strong enough to beat Federer on any surface (although Rome might prove me wrong).

Nalbandian has done much more vs Federer then Djokovic has so far, and is much more capable of being a real top player then Canas ever will be. Learn something about tennis, then comment. Not the other way around.

Canas has beat him twice on hard surfaces in their last 2 meetings so I won't comment any further.

Canas is a 29 year old journeyman. Hmmm, what is more likely, vast improvement of one of the kiddie corps on the way to taking over as one of the top guys, or back to back wins over the dominant player in the world being his career highlight. Gee, thats a tough one, LOL!

Nadal beats Federer all the time on clay and is improving on hard surfaces too.

Nadal is doing what he has done for 2 years. Winning everything on clay, and winning the occasional hard court tournament, while losing in the quarters of most of them. Yeah the ******** Nadal groupies like yourself are always saying how Nadal is taking his game on all surfaces to a new level, how he is about to dominant on other surfaces, blah blah blah. Same old same old.

Djokovic is improving mentally and technically so fast on all surfaces that he will be able to threaten every player on every surface in a short time. The reason that he didn't beat Federer yet is that Federer plays a similar game to Djokovic in terms of style but Federer is better at it but as Federer gets older and Djokovic reaches his prime things will change a lot and pretty soon.

Wait until Djokovic comes close to beating Federer. Until then your dumb assed logic is full of crap.

Only the way you post shows what kind of person you are and it's an ugly sight.

Oooh, that is a cutting comment. That really hurt, coming from you whose opinion I respect and admire so greatly. :p

Firstly Nadal and Djokovic will improve whether you like it or not and Federer will not go much further than he already has as many will agree.

As many will agree? Do you mean your puppets who you talk to at night?

Canas has just returned from 15 months of ban and he beats Federer twice on hard courts that Federer was defending from last year. He is going to play better than now for at least one more year since he just returned so he won't get any worse for the near future.

He is 29 years old. Beating Federer twice on hard courts will be his career highlight, period. A 29 year old journeyman is not some phenom on the verge to taking over at the top of the game, only in your deluded sense of reality. Oh yeah 29 year old journeyman Canas taking his game to a new level, but 25 year old all-time great Federer cant, ROTFL!

Nadal is getting much better on hard surfaces and he reached Wimbledon last year and won IW in straight sets against very good opponents this year. You will say of course that if he played against Federer then Federer would beat him but Federer couldn't make it there unfortunately :D

Nadal's won 2 Masters titles, and was in 3 Masters finals in 2005, and it took him another 19 months to win another one or even reach another final. Yep that is real fast hard court progress. He beat Federer in Dubai last year, and lost to him in straight sets of the year end Masters, so again real progress as you can see. ROTFL! As for the Wimbledon final this year, he has about as much chance of making it back there as Roddick does of winning the French Open.

If someone doesn't know squat it is you of course because you're so blind with Federer that you can't see anything past him and everyone else is crap for you. This doesn't make you a tennis fan but a Federer fan which is very different.

Baghdatis72 telling someone else they know squat. Ok now I have heard it all. I will escape from this now since arguing with Baghdatis or Morrisey is like making a visit to a pysch ward.

Do us a favor and stop infesting the forum with crap.

Actually it is ******** losers with crap filled brains like yourself and Morrisey who ruin what would otherwise be wonderful forums. Go crawl back under your rock loser.

fastdunn
05-06-2007, 02:16 PM
Baghdatis is a streaky player. He tends to lose lots of early rounds
and then suddenly string a series of wins in bigger tournament.

Both Gasquet and Bagdhatis have roughness that needs to be polished.
Djokovic has already polished game but I just think Gasquet and Baghatis
have better raw material, so to speak...

Note that I'm just talking about talents. There are so many talents who
vastly under-achieved....

Also note that Baghdatis reached a final of AO and semi-final at Wimbledon.
None of new generations except Nadal have achived this much yet....

In terms of pure skill levels, he only has Federer and Nadal to overcome, IMHO.
Coincidentally, he lost to Federer at AO and Nadal at Wimbledon.
In terms of skills, I view him already as top 5. No flame please, it's just
my personal views.....

federerfanatic
05-06-2007, 03:09 PM
Also note that Baghdatis reached a final of AO and semi-final at Wimbledon. None of new generations except Nadal have achived this much yet....

It depends what you consider as doing more. Reaching a slam semi and slam final(Baghdatis), or having a Masters final and Masters win(Djokovic). One difference I see though is Djokovic beat World #2 Nadal. Baghdatis beat neither Federer or Nadal to achieve his feat.

You are entitled your opinion on Baghdatis. I still think he will prove to be another Schuettler or Magnus Norman type. One great year-solid top 10 year, a slam final, lots of great results, career year, back down to earth, probably out of the top 10 and never to return.

tennisjunkiela
05-06-2007, 03:27 PM
Baghdatis is a streaky player. He tends to lose lots of early rounds
and then suddenly string a series of wins in bigger tournament.

Both Gasquet and Bagdhatis have roughness that needs to be polished.
Djokovic has already polished game but I just think Gasquet and Baghatis
have better raw material, so to speak...

Note that I'm just talking about talents. There are so many talents who
vastly under-achieved....

Also note that Baghdatis reached a final of AO and semi-final at Wimbledon.
None of new generations except Nadal have achived this much yet....

In terms of pure skill levels, he only has Federer and Nadal to overcome, IMHO.
Coincidentally, he lost to Federer at AO and Nadal at Wimbledon.
In terms of skills, I view him already as top 5. No flame please, it's just
my personal views.....

i too think bags is top 5 in terms of skills - definitely needs to ditch his entourage and focus!

welcome2petrkordaland
05-06-2007, 03:46 PM
okay lemme see how i can put this mildly . . . bags is fat. i saw him at indian wells-he's got a gut. yes, he's seemingly very talented but needs to get his @#! in shape. he also needs to get another coach besides that dude that always has the deer-in-the-headlights look to him and never says or does anything. how much is he paid anyway?

and the fact that he's always smiling and such a "showman" does very little for his results. can you imagine lendl (or nadal or sharapova or seles or anyone else with that killer instinct and focus on winning) f ing around all the time on the court during a match? lendl was probably more concerned about figuring out how he could blast a hole through his opponent's chest than pleasing the crowd.

bottom line is baghdatis needs to make some serious changes to get the most out of his talent.

mileslong
05-06-2007, 04:10 PM
Well... it is plausible for Nadal to take the #1 spot, because he will win the rest of teh clay season, make it to the wimbledon finals(possibly win if he adjusts)
no its not plausible, probably not even realistically possible but most definately not plausible...

Baghdatis72
05-06-2007, 06:12 PM
Nalbandian has done much more vs Federer then Djokovic has so far, and is much more capable of being a real top player then Canas ever will be. Learn something about tennis, then comment. Not the other way around.

Yeap that's right he has done in the past but not anymore. If you know everything about tennis then write a book and sell it and also write about the future results and upsets so we can win some money from your wisdom.

Canas is a 29 year old journeyman. Hmmm, what is more likely, vast improvement of one of the kiddie corps on the way to taking over as one of the top guys, or back to back wins over the dominant player in the world being his career highlight. Gee, thats a tough one, LOL!

Federer is not perfect and he will lose sometimes but Canas has proved that he can beat him consistently and if Djokovic improves even more then he will definitely pose a threat to him.

Also:

2007 ATP Masters Series Miami
R16
Canas vs Federer
7-6(2) 2-6 7-6(5)

2007 ATP Masters Series Indian Wells
R64
Canas vs Federer
7-5 6-2

No further comments.

Nadal is doing what he has done for 2 years. Winning everything on clay, and winning the occasional hard court tournament, while losing in the quarters of most of them. Yeah the ******** Nadal groupies like yourself are always saying how Nadal is taking his game on all surfaces to a new level, how he is about to dominant on other surfaces, blah blah blah. Same old same old.

I am not a Nadal groupie I am a tennis fan and cursing just makes you look ******** yourself actually.

Wait until Djokovic comes close to beating Federer. Until then your dumb assed logic is full of crap.

How old are you? 8?

Oooh, that is a cutting comment. That really hurt, coming from you whose opinion I respect and admire so greatly. :p

On the contrary your comments are very clever and responsible and need to be greatly respected :lol: Rofl lmao lol

As many will agree? Do you mean your puppets who you talk to at night?

I am not a federerfanatic so I don't have puppets like your Federer bear :lol:

He is 29 years old. Beating Federer twice on hard courts will be his career highlight, period. A 29 year old journeyman is not some phenom on the verge to taking over at the top of the game, only in your deluded sense of reality. Oh yeah 29 year old journeyman Canas taking his game to a new level, but 25 year old all-time great Federer cant, ROTFL!

He didn't have to take his game to a new level and he still beat Federer twice in a row on a hard court. In the second set of the IW match Federer looked like he saw a ghost or something from what was happening on court.

Nadal's won 2 Masters titles, and was in 3 Masters finals in 2005, and it took him another 19 months to win another one or even reach another final. Yep that is real fast hard court progress. He beat Federer in Dubai last year, and lost to him in straight sets of the year end Masters, so again real progress as you can see. ROTFL! As for the Wimbledon final this year, he has about as much chance of making it back there as Roddick does of winning the French Open.

That's in the past what matters now is the future and what we have seen up to now this year is promising for others too.

Baghdatis72 telling someone else they know squat. Ok now I have heard it all. I will escape from this now since arguing with Baghdatis or Morrisey is like making a visit to a pysch ward.

1) You don't have a clue about who I am and what I know.
2) Escape and go hide in your safe closet and fantasize about Federer dominating everything forever.

Actually it is ******** losers with crap filled brains like yourself and Morrisey who ruin what would otherwise be wonderful forums. Go crawl back under your rock loser.

I am glad to see you go mad and you deserve it for your flaming replies. When other people post their opinions a confident and clever person responds calmly and democratically with good arguments and if he/she has a point then fair enough. Flaming the way you do shows that you are insecure and immature and arguing with you is just not worth the trouble. Learn to respect others if you ever want to earn respect and be heard. If you were a bit more rational and calm you would realize that other people don't hate Federer as you imagine but just say their opinions about the future and what might change in the years to come. Federer is number 1 since 2004 for a good reason and he doesn't need people like you to defend him as you disgrace Federer fans and Federer himself and they don't deserve it.

Baghdatis72
05-06-2007, 06:21 PM
okay lemme see how i can put this mildly . . . bags is fat. i saw him at indian wells-he's got a gut. yes, he's seemingly very talented but needs to get his @#! in shape. he also needs to get another coach besides that dude that always has the deer-in-the-headlights look to him and never says or does anything. how much is he paid anyway?

and the fact that he's always smiling and such a "showman" does very little for his results. can you imagine lendl (or nadal or sharapova or seles or anyone else with that killer instinct and focus on winning) f ing around all the time on the court during a match? lendl was probably more concerned about figuring out how he could blast a hole through his opponent's chest than pleasing the crowd.

bottom line is baghdatis needs to make some serious changes to get the most out of his talent.

Bags doesn't seem to be a good professional of any sort for some reason :(
He is way too fat for a tennis player and his professional decisions are a bit unorthodox to say the least. Unfortunately I can't see him changing any time soon as he is greatly affected from what other tell him and doesn't take professional advice often. Also he seems to be romantic about his decisions as he has chosen a coach who used to train him when he was a little child just because he knows him personally and they have fun together.
Even more he insists in playing to have fun on court and smiling all the time but that takes the mental aggressiveness away from him and gives the opponent a mental edge.

I think his stronger ties with Cyprus and people there after he reached the Wimbledon SF have helped greatly to destroy his career for a long time. Most people there in the tennis federation, family and sports association pretend to know everything and want a piece of the cake and that's not good for Baghdatis.