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View Full Version : Can Nadal be no. 1?


Mark Vessels
05-14-2007, 01:31 PM
8-) It's hard to picture him and his game as the best player in the world but it is very possicle for him gain the number one ranking.

drakulie
05-14-2007, 01:31 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? I doubt it.

zampano
05-14-2007, 01:40 PM
Can he? Yes. Will he? I doubt it.

can he? i doubt it. will he? YES

WayneCM
05-14-2007, 01:42 PM
i think he might at the end of this year possibly, to be honest i think nadal has done to fed waht fed did to roddick, fed looks like a mere mortal compared to his usual flawless self and at the rate he's droppping points its not inconcievable(spelling?) that he could make no. 1...

illkhiboy
05-14-2007, 01:46 PM
Lol it's not that bad Wayne. Federer is still a couple THOUSAND points clear of Nadal. And he's only lost 4 matches this year, one of them being a final in Monte Carlo to Nadal. It's ok. I am quite sure he will find a way to get to the final of th French. And who knows, Nadal gets fatigued by then, and Federer has a great day and he's the holder of all 4 Slams then. Would be funny. Next thing you know everyone on TW jumps on the 'Federer is GOAT' bandwagon.

edmondsm
05-14-2007, 01:46 PM
i think he might at the end of this year possibly, to be honest i think nadal has done to fed waht fed did to roddick, fed looks like a mere mortal compared to his usual flawless self and at the rate he's droppping points its not inconcievable(spelling?) that he could make no. 1...

I agree. If the current trend continues Rafa will be #1 at the end of the year. But I think it is more likely that he will cool off after the FO and Fed will start defending his points again.

WayneCM
05-14-2007, 01:49 PM
Lol it's not that bad Wayne. Federer is still a couple THOUSAND points clear of Nadal. And he's only lost 4 matches this year, one of them being a final in Monte Carlo to Nadal. It's ok. I am quite sure he will find a way to get to the final of th French. And who knows, Nadal gets fatigued by then, and Federer has a great day and he's the holder of all 4 Slams then. Would be funny. Next thing you know everyone on TW jumps on the 'Federer is GOAT' bandwagon.

haha true, i just seen a look in fed i havn't seen since his early career, not the air of confidence and i wanna see that back and i hope he takes nadal by the scruff of the neck even if he looses he's gotta stay cool, apply the davydenko approach and use those weapons he has on top of that...

Baghdatis72
05-14-2007, 01:50 PM
He will definitely get closer to the number 1 spot by the end of this year compared to the last year but he needs to beat Federer at Wimbledon and the US Open in order to get the #1 spot and that's not an easy task.
Of course someone else could beat Federer there but then Nadal would have to beat him ;)

ACE of Hearts
05-14-2007, 01:51 PM
Here is the thing that worries me right now, that Roger needs to defend those points at the french open but i can also say that Nadal has to defend those grass points at wimbledon.Should be interesting.

kimizz
05-14-2007, 01:51 PM
The rome flop was a bit suprisising...maybe this is the year when Roger falls. I know he leads with 2000points but hes allready lost 1300 during the season. He has more to defend in the end of the season.

kimizz
05-14-2007, 01:59 PM
and to add to my previos post. It seems to be a general assumption that if Nadal wants to be nr.1 he needs to beat Federer at Wimb and USO finals. Its a BIG assumption that Federer can reach the finals in both of them. If federer fails in the early rounds like in miami,IW and rome, Nadal doenst need to win Wimb or USO...

edmondsm
05-14-2007, 02:05 PM
and to add to my previos post. It seems to be a general assumption that if Nadal wants to be nr.1 he needs to beat Federer at Wimb and USO finals. Its a BIG assumption that Federer can reach the finals in both of them. If federer fails in the early rounds like in miami,IW and rome, Nadal doenst need to win Wimb or USO...

At this point is it really that big an assumption that Fed will win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He's won them 3 years in a row. Even if he does somehow lose early in those tourneys Nadal has to get to the Wimby final and the USO quarters to not lose points.

Heavy Metal Tennis Star
05-14-2007, 04:19 PM
ofcourse he can, rios and roddick got to number 1, nadal is far much more talented than those 2.

pow
05-14-2007, 05:07 PM
I think Rafa had a hot beginning half of the year last year too. :)

vince916
05-14-2007, 05:16 PM
IF fed keeps playing real bad then anythings possible.

tennis_hand
05-14-2007, 06:02 PM
I think Rafa had a hot beginning half of the year last year too. :)

exactly.

clay success will keep him from falling under No 2, but not enough to put him at No 1.

tennis_hand
05-14-2007, 06:03 PM
ofcourse he can, rios and roddick got to number 1, nadal is far much more talented than those 2.

they got to No 1 with the absence of a potential GOAT.

vkartikv
05-14-2007, 06:04 PM
Well to all the fed-bashers and people who say his dominance is boring this can only be good news. Fed will bounce back and (re)confirm his place in history just like Pete did when Courier, Becker and Edberg briefly took away the #1 ranking from him...

Wingshellphelp
05-14-2007, 06:05 PM
exactly.

clay success will keep him from falling under No 2, but not enough to put him at No 1.

exactly.So So right

kimizz
05-14-2007, 11:49 PM
At this point is it really that big an assumption that Fed will win Wimbledon and the U.S. Open. He's won them 3 years in a row. Even if he does somehow lose early in those tourneys Nadal has to get to the Wimby final and the USO quarters to not lose points.

So often I try to defend Nadal and talk about hes potential. Some might think of me as a Federer hater. But its not true. I like both of them. I say this so you understand my perspective, im not predicting fall for federer cause I hate him.

Last year it was obvious to me that Federer will win USO for example. Call it guts, intuition whatever, I just dont see Federer playing that well atm. Thats why I think its a big achievment for Roger if he can defend hes titles in WIMB and USO.

PrinceO3TourOS
05-15-2007, 12:02 AM
Yes, I think he'll be the next No.1 next year :D

pow
05-15-2007, 12:56 AM
I don't really see it because he has too many people that can take him down when he's not on clay. Right now, it's clay season and he's in great form but come hard courts the next half of the year and we see Blake, Berdych, and Youzhny among other big flat hitters to give him an upset.

onkystomper
05-15-2007, 01:07 AM
I agree. If the current trend continues Rafa will be #1 at the end of the year. But I think it is more likely that he will cool off after the FO and Fed will start defending his points again.

The people who kep saying Nadal will be #1 at end of year clearly have no idea how the atp ranking system works. For Nadal to be #1 at year end Fed will have to pretty much lose in the first or second round of all slams and MS foe rest of year

Baghdatis72
05-15-2007, 01:40 AM
Nadal has to cover 2140 ranking points to become the number 1 since he has 4875 points and Federer has 7015 points.

For that to happen the following must take place for example:
1) Nadal has to retain the RG and Federer to reach only the QF (loses 450 points).
2) Nadal to reach the final of Wimbledon again and Federer to lose in the SF (loses 300 points).
3) Nadal to win Canada MS against Federer in the final (Nadal gains 425 and Federer loses 150 points).
4) Nadal to reach SF in Cincinatti and Federer to lose in R16 (Nadal gains 125 points and Federer gains 40 points).

So up to now we have Federer losing 860 points and Nadal gaining 550 points and their ranking points are 6155 for Federer and 5425 for Nadal with a difference of 730 points.
Now for those 730 points to diminish there are many scenarios so we can assume a very possible one.
If Federer wins the US Open again he gets no more points and if Nadal reaches the SF he gains 200 points (530 points difference).
Nadal plays Stockholm like last year and wins so he gets 205 points (325 points difference).
Federer wins Tokyo and Madrid MS again and Nadal reaches final of Madrid (225 points for Nadal that brings the difference to 100 points).
Federer wins Basel (0 points).

Now we have Federer with 6155 points still and Nadal with 6055 and a difference of 100 points and the only remaining event is the Tennis Masters Cup in China so if Nadal wins that or even does better than Federer he will be number 1 with this scenario.

Well from what we can see in order for all this to happen Nadal has to improve drastically on the hard courts and steal many points of other players in the top 10. Federer can have a good year but still lose his number 1 spot with this scenario so most of it depends on Nadal and his hard court and Grand Slam appearances imo and also how fast Federer recovers from this slump.

ckthegreek
05-15-2007, 03:08 AM
He will be No.1. No doubt about it.

Let me put it this way, who will be No.1 when Federer gets to 30? Robredo, Roddick or Davydenko?

Obvious isn't it?

In response to the above post there's an outside chance that he'll be No.1 end of this year. A much better chance end of next year.

thu_huong
05-15-2007, 03:14 AM
He will be No.1. No doubt about it.

Let me put it this way, who will be No.1 when Federer gets to 30? Robredo, Roddick or Davydenko?

Obvious isn't it?

In response to the above post there's an outside chance that he'll be No.1 end of this year. A much better chance end of next year.

none among Robredo, Roddick, davy
why don't you think of some guys like Djokovic or Nadal or Murry or Gasquet?

Zaragoza
05-15-2007, 03:15 AM
8-) It's hard to picture him and his game as the best player in the world but it is very possicle for him gain the number one ranking.

Its easy to picture him and his game as the best in the world and Brad Gilbert seems to agree with me.

GOD_BLESS_RAFA
05-15-2007, 03:24 AM
none among Robredo, Roddick, davy
why don't you think of some guys like Djokovic or Nadal or Murry or Gasquet?

It is more possible for Djokovic to be n3 and dethrone Roddick at the end of the year than to be n1 or n2...

Only Nadal can be n1 if God blesses him with 3rd FO and finals on fast surfaces against someone else than Federer :p

thu_huong
05-15-2007, 03:49 AM
It is more possible for Djokovic to be n3 and dethrone Roddick at the end of the year than to be n1 or n2...

Only Nadal can be n1 if God blesses him with 3rd FO and finals on fast surfaces against someone else than Federer :p

actually I don't want Nadal to be world number one until 2009:sad:
sorry to say so

ckthegreek
05-15-2007, 04:12 AM
none among Robredo, Roddick, davy
why don't you think of some guys like Djokovic or Nadal or Murry or Gasquet?

Who do you think I'm talking about? :roll:

Baghdatis72
05-15-2007, 04:13 AM
actually I don't want Nadal to be world number one until 2009:sad:
sorry to say so

2009? Hmmm if Federer wakes up and Djokovic, Murray and Gasquet remain on the same level for 1.5 more years then it's possible but if these don't happen then Nadal will be number 1 sooner than that since the 3 youngsters will take points from Federer on the hard courts and that will push Nadal with his clay court points to the number 1 (especially if he wins Hamburg and RG this year).

kimizz
05-15-2007, 05:34 AM
Lets clear one fact. Nadal isnt chasing Federer, its the otherway around. Nadal leads the race and Federer needs to perform well in the rest of the season to catch him. If roger doesnt catch Nadal, He wont be the nr1! Last year results dont mean anything in the end of this season!

Baghdatis72
05-15-2007, 05:38 AM
Lets clear one fact. Nadal isnt chasing Federer, its the otherway around. Nadal leads the race and Federer needs to perform well in the rest of the season to catch him. If roger doesnt catch Nadal, He wont be the nr1! Last year results dont mean anything in the end of this season!

Yeah because the most points that Federer has right now are from the second half of 2006 after May and if he does badly for the rest of 2007 then he will end up number 2 or 3 in the race and consequently lose his number 1 spot.

Andres
05-15-2007, 05:48 AM
Nadal has to cover 2140 ranking points to become the number 1 since he has 4875 points and Federer has 7015 points.

For that to happen the following must take place for example:
1) Nadal has to retain the RG and Federer to reach only the QF (loses 450 points).
2) Nadal to reach the final of Wimbledon again and Federer to lose in the SF (loses 300 points).
3) Nadal to win Canada MS against Federer in the final (Nadal gains 425 and Federer loses 150 points).
4) Nadal to reach SF in Cincinatti and Federer to lose in R16 (Nadal gains 125 points and Federer gains 40 points).

So up to now we have Federer losing 860 points and Nadal gaining 550 points and their ranking points are 6155 for Federer and 5425 for Nadal with a difference of 730 points.
Now for those 730 points to diminish there are many scenarios so we can assume a very possible one.
If Federer wins the US Open again he gets no more points and if Nadal reaches the SF he gains 200 points (530 points difference).
Nadal plays Stockholm like last year and wins so he gets 205 points (325 points difference).
Federer wins Tokyo and Madrid MS again and Nadal reaches final of Madrid (225 points for Nadal that brings the difference to 100 points).
Federer wins Basel (0 points).

Now we have Federer with 6155 points still and Nadal with 6055 and a difference of 100 points and the only remaining event is the Tennis Masters Cup in China so if Nadal wins that or even does better than Federer he will be number 1 with this scenario.

Well from what we can see in order for all this to happen Nadal has to improve drastically on the hard courts and steal many points of other players in the top 10. Federer can have a good year but still lose his number 1 spot with this scenario so most of it depends on Nadal and his hard court and Grand Slam appearances imo and also how fast Federer recovers from this slump.
Federer breaks his neck in June 2007, and can't play any MS, Wimbledon and USO. Loses 3,000 points. Nadal gets injured too, loses 1,000 points.
Right before Wimbledon, a nuclear bomb drops in Europe, and a meteor collapses central, north and southamerica, killing every player there. INCLUDING Fed and Nadal

Since Bracciali and Karlovic were having a Foster's beer in Aussieland, they become the new #1 and #2. Hewitt wants to claim those spots, but he gets into a big fight with Chris Guccione, and Chris kicks his ***, sending him to the hospital. He sufferers a severe stroke right after. Guccione gets to the SF of Wimbledon, with 5 previous byes. Meets Bracciali, and after 300 aces in that 5 setter, he loses.

Year end:

#1 Bracciali
#2 Karlovic
#3 Guccione
#4 Srichaphan
#5 Udomchoke

#15 Cañas
#18 Federer
#21 Nadal

Marius_Hancu
05-15-2007, 05:49 AM
Doesn't bother me, as long as Fed continues at at 1-2 GS's a year:-)

Ztalin
05-15-2007, 08:37 AM
I think Nadal will do worse this year at wimbledon and too many people can beat him on hard courts. So he doesn't become #1, not this year.

Andres
05-15-2007, 11:04 AM
I'm sticking with my Bracciali and Karlovic theory, thank you very much :mrgreen:

Baghdatis72
05-15-2007, 11:31 AM
Federer breaks his neck in June 2007, and can't play any MS, Wimbledon and USO. Loses 3,000 points. Nadal gets injured too, loses 1,000 points.
Right before Wimbledon, a nuclear bomb drops in Europe, and a meteor collapses central, north and southamerica, killing every player there. INCLUDING Fed and Nadal

Since Bracciali and Karlovic were having a Foster's beer in Aussieland, they become the new #1 and #2. Hewitt wants to claim those spots, but he gets into a big fight with Chris Guccione, and Chris kicks his ***, sending him to the hospital. He sufferers a severe stroke right after. Guccione gets to the SF of Wimbledon, with 5 previous byes. Meets Bracciali, and after 300 aces in that 5 setter, he loses.

Year end:

#1 Bracciali
#2 Karlovic
#3 Guccione
#4 Srichaphan
#5 Udomchoke

#15 Caas
#18 Federer
#21 Nadal

Nice theory ;)
The only difference between your theory and mine are the nuclear bombs killing everyone :lol:

If you think that what I posted is very lame and impossible then just say it clearly, it's no secret or shame. After all that was 1 possible scenario out of hundreds of possible scenarios and its main point was that it will take many upsets to bring Nadal to the number 1 spot before the end of the year.

Andres
05-15-2007, 11:38 AM
No, I just got dizzy with all the numbers, and wanted to post my own!
Don't worry, if I think something is lame, I'll say: YOU'RE LAME.

And by the way, both theories are VERY different. It's not JUST the nuclear bombs ;)