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Wuornos
03-27-2008, 06:59 AM
Following the failure of the hybrid rating system due to the lack of sufficiently robust data for earlier periods, it seemed a waste to simply drop all the work that had already gone into the database.

I have therefore simplified the system greatly to produce current and peak ratings for all players since WWII using major results only. The system assumes a 0.5 probability of progressing to the next round of a major and therefore doubles the points awarded to a player with each successive win.

The weighting for each event are derived by a simple algorithm based on the rating of the players going into the event. This simple and transparent approach should have the necessary effect in devaluing boycotted majors and periods of weakness for individual majors.

The weighting system will also assist in reducing the number of points available following the retirement of top players and act as barometer of the current domination of various players and adjust their competitors ratings accordingly.

The system is simple but should be fit for purpose.

In order for people to see how things develop and how the ratings progress for various players and periods within the game, I shall post one year’s results per day beginning with 1946. Each post will contain the ratings after the US Chamionship for the year concerned, the peak ratings for the best players to date, the total points awarded to the elite group giving an indication to the standard within the sport, a list of the top players based on their peak ranking rather than rating using this system, and finally a career record showing number of majors won, finals lost, semi finals lost and quarter finals lost for the top players up to the point in time being analysed.

Each player has only a single name within the database for identification purposes irrespective of the name under which their original achievements were recorded.

I am not really interested about what people think about my systems anymore, but am instead posting these data to provoke discussion and hopefully bring into focus some of the achievements of the past greats for those who may not be familiar with the history of the game.

Even if you don't agree with the value of these ratings for individual players, at the very least the study will help in showing the relationship between peak standard, majors won and duration at #1 rank.

This thread relates to the women’s ratings. A subsequent thread will be started carrying out the same process for the men’s ratings when data are ready in about 4 weeks.

In the mean time I hope you all enjoy these posts and the thread provides plenty of discussion.

Regards

Tim

Wuornos
03-27-2008, 07:00 AM
Data correct up to and including US Championship 1950

Top 10 current women following US Championship

1 Louise Brough Clapp 848
2 Doris Hart 846
3 Margaret Osborne Dupont 672
4 Patricia Canning Todd 380
5 Barbara Scofield 213
6 Shirley Fry 161
7 Betty Rosenquist Pratt 98
8 Beverly Baker Fleitz 92
8 Nancy Chaffee Kiner 92
10 Betty Hilton Harrison 63
10 Gussie Moran 63

Total rating points available to elite group 3,820


Top rated women since WWII and year during which peak was achieved

1 Louise Brough Clapp 942 1950
2 Doris Hart 850 1950
3 Margaret Osborne Dupont 680 1950
4 Patricia Canning Todd 381 1950
5 Pauline Betz 376 1946
6 Nancye Bolton 286 1947
7 Barbara Scofield 214 1950
8 Nelly Landry 207 1948
9 Shirley Fry 161 1950
10 Betty Hilton Harrison 157 1950


Peak rank of women since WWII, number of majors the rank was held and year first achieving peak rank

1 Margaret Osborne Dupont 1 7 1947
2 Louise Brough Clapp 1 6 1948
3 Pauline Betz 1 4 1946
4 Doris Hart 1 1 1950
5 Patricia Canning Todd 2 1 1947
5 Nancye Bolton 2 1 1947
7 Dorothy Cheney 3 1 1946
8 Nelly Landry 4 2 1948
8 Betty Hilton Harrison 4 2 1949
10 Barbara Scofield 5 3 1950


Major career records to date
(Major wins, final losses, semi final losses and quarter final losses)

1 Margaret Osborne Dupont 6 3 3 2
2 Louise Brough Clapp 5 2 5 1
3 Nancye Bolton 3 1 2 1
4 Doris Hart 2 7 3 3
5 Pauline Betz 2 1 0 0
6 Patricia Canning Todd 1 1 6 4
7 Nelly Landry 1 0 0 2
8 Marie Toomey 0 1 1 2
9 Joyce Fitch 0 1 1 1
10 Shirley Fry 0 1 0 4


Comments
1 Margaret Osborne reclaims is overtaken in the current ratings with Louise Brough and Doris Hart pushing each other to establish dominance in the premier events.
2 Louis Brough retains the highest peak rating but pushes the record standard to a new high being the firts woman to exceed 900 points. Doris Hart has an outstanding years in the majors and despite finishing the year as the current #2 achieves the 2nd highest rating since WWII
3 Margaret Osborne reatins her place at the top of both the peak rankings and major count table, bu with Louise Brough closing in.
4 The overall standrad is markedly up on 1949 with 3,820 points being awarded to the elite group as opposed to th eprevious years 2,280, chiefly because of the three way competition during the year of Louise Brough, Doris Hart and Margaret Osborne and 7 of the top players since WWII achieving their peak performance during the 1950 year.
5 This point in time probably reflects the first point in time since the end of WWII when the womens' game be considered to have returned to it's full strength.
6 Four player since WWII now have strong cases to claim that they were at some point during this period the #1 player in the world.

Wuornos
03-28-2008, 02:49 AM
Data revised to now include 1946 to 1950.

hoodjem
03-29-2008, 07:45 PM
W,
I gotta say that this stuff really is the path untrod.

The paradigm of esoteric.

Wuornos
03-30-2008, 03:44 AM
Deleted as found unuseful by board members. :cry: