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View Full Version : Can Federer still win Wimbledon?


Rhino
04-04-2008, 03:25 AM
If you look at Sampras in 1998 (Federer being exactly 10 years younger), he also started badly with the Majors and Masters:
Quarterfinals of AO (lost to Kucera)
R16 Indian Wells (lost to Muster)
R32 Miami (lost to Ferreira)
R16 Monte Carlo (lost to Santoro 61 61!!)
R16 Rome (lost to Chang)
R64 Roland Garros (lost to Delgado)
He even then went out to Mark Woodforde at Queens in the 3rd round.

But still he won Wimbledon and stayed at #1 in the world.

Federer is doing better than that, so I think he can at least win Wimbledon (and Halle) to keep the grass court streak going.

ninman
04-04-2008, 03:36 AM
The difference is that Sampras's success was more spread out, whereas Federer won 42 titles in 4 years. Everyone expected the dominance to just go on and on, but everything has to end sometime. He'll still be winning into his 30's, just not as much that's all.

I think he's long earned the right to play badly once in a while.

my_forehand
04-04-2008, 03:49 AM
Yeah...maybe.

caulcano
04-04-2008, 04:56 AM
I also think that Federer should consider adding more tournaments to his playing schedule, to help him retain his #1 ranking.

Nuke
04-04-2008, 05:25 AM
I agree, Fed should play more to keep himself in shape and retain the #1 ranking, but whenever these guys (and gals) reach the top, they always think the way to extend their reign is to cut back and only play the big tournaments. I know they're trying to avoid burnout, but the downside is that they come into the GS tournaments rusty.

TennezSport
04-04-2008, 06:13 AM
It's just my opinion but I stated last week that Fed would lose in the Q or S this week, based on Fed's statements on his priorities this year.

I think that he is still concerned about recovering from the mono completely and peaking at the right time. He said he wanted to get more match play in; done. He said he wanted to improve his ranking lead; done. He also stated that he wants to peak for the clay season heading into the French; on course.

Now I am not saying that he didn't want the W at Miami, I just think that he is focused on making a surge on the clay this year and pulling away for the second half of the year. No small feat. I would love to see Fed work with Gil Reyes on fitness and Jose Higeras or Darren Cahill as coach though.

TennezSport :cool:

daddy
04-04-2008, 06:17 AM
It's just my opinion but I stated last week that Fed would lose in the Q or S this week, based on Fed's statements on his priorities this year.

I think that he is still concerned about recovering from the mono completely and peaking at the right time. He said he wanted to get more match play in; done. He said he wanted to improve his ranking lead; done. He also stated that he wants to peak for the clay season heading into the French; on course.

Now I am not saying that he didn't want the W at Miami, I just think that he is focused on making a surge on the clay this year and pulling away for the second half of the year. No small feat. I would love to see Fed work with Gil Reyes on fitness and Jose Higeras or Darren Cahill as coach though.

TennezSport :cool:


I can not resest. If you seriously think this - you are in trrouble and I am not sure if there is something you should do to help yourself.

Darth Nihilus
04-04-2008, 06:23 AM
It's possible. We are in April and he could find form on grass in two months time. But I don't believe he will win on clay. He's making too many unforced errors on hardcourt, it will only be exacerbated on clay where errors are always higher than winners. Plus the Nadal factor. He's still at his peak. If anything probably better this time. Oh well. :-(

andfor
04-04-2008, 06:30 AM
At the risk of taking abuse I'll state my opinion. I believe that Fed at this stage in his career, much like Sampras at about the same age and stage, has not only pulled back on his tournaments but is not training as hard as he once was. I'm not there so itís only a guess. But the whole not playing as many tournaments and trying to peak at just the right time thing is difficult for anyone. I believe that Fed like Sampras at this stage is actually suffering from a touch of burn out. They just easily beat everyone, when they want to. They won all the big titles. Have to globe trot around the world to the little tournaments and all the while everyone they play is gunning for them with nothing to lose. Both Fed and Sampras have more money at this stage then they and their kids could spend. Worrying about continuing their tennis legacy has worn on them. They both have elevated to GOAT status and now have little to prove. Sure Fed is chasing Sampras GS record now. But the closer he gets, just as the closer Sampras got to Laver, the more difficult it becomes. When and if Fed get number 15 he's done.

Playing tennis at Fedís level day in and day out is not as easy as he makes it look. I feel sorry for him and will gladly fill in.

Duzza
04-04-2008, 06:49 AM
If you look at Sampras in 1998 (Federer being exactly 10 years younger), he also started badly with the Majors and Masters:
Quarterfinals of AO (lost to Kucera)
R16 Indian Wells (lost to Muster)
R32 Miami (lost to Ferreira)
R16 Monte Carlo (lost to Santoro 61 61!!)
R16 Rome (lost to Chang)
R64 Roland Garros (lost to Delgado)
He even then went out to Mark Woodforde at Queens in the 3rd round.

But still he won Wimbledon and stayed at #1 in the world.

Federer is doing better than that, so I think he can at least win Wimbledon (and Halle) to keep the grass court streak going.
Federer was born on the 8th of August, while Pete was on the 12th. How can you make such ridiculous claims about these two players! Sickening....

daddy
04-04-2008, 06:59 AM
At the risk of taking abuse I'll state my opinion. I believe that Fed at this stage in his career, much like Sampras at about the same age and stage, has not only pulled back on his tournaments but is not training as hard as he once was. I'm not there so itís only a guess. But the whole not playing as many tournaments and trying to peak at just the right time thing is difficult for anyone. I believe that Fed like Sampras at this stage is actually suffering from a touch of burn out. They just easily beat everyone, when they want to. They won all the big titles. Have to globe trot around the world to the little tournaments and all the while everyone they play is gunning for them with nothing to lose. Both Fed and Sampras have more money at this stage then they and their kids could spend. Worrying about continuing their tennis legacy has worn on them. They both have elevated to GOAT status and now have little to prove. Sure Fed is chasing Sampras GS record now. But the closer he gets, just as the closer Sampras got to Laver, the more difficult it becomes. When and if Fed get number 15 he's done.

Playing tennis at Fedís level day in and day out is not as easy as he makes it look. I feel sorry for him and will gladly fill in.

Excapt for the feel sorry for him part ( he is nr1 and one of the icons of the world sport, no need for pitty here ) - I agree with what you wrote. I do think this is a combination of factors like for example my guess would be he is a bit out of shape, finds it hard to motivate himself to train as much and as hard as he used to, looking forward to all the records and pressure of that and the nr1 spot, also maybe a bit of being out of form and a bit of illness and there you go - just enough reasons for this.

slice bh compliment
04-04-2008, 07:01 AM
Yeah, at the risk of being a ''fed fanboi'', I'm with you Rhino. I was thinking the same thing.

MichaelChang
04-04-2008, 07:02 AM
I disagree with the statement that Fed has not enough motivation. On the opposite I think to win FO and the break Sampras's 14 Slam record, is a very strong motivation.

daddy
04-04-2008, 07:05 AM
I disagree with the statement that Fed has not enough motivation. On the opposite I think to win FO and the break Sampras's 14 Slam record, is a very strong motivation.

Maybe it is too much for him, what was his motivation can become a big pressure for him in time ...

andfor
04-04-2008, 07:11 AM
Excapt for the feel sorry for him part ( he is nr1 and one of the icons of the world sport, no need for pitty here ) - I agree with what you wrote. I do think this is a combination of factors like for example my guess would be he is a bit out of shape, finds it hard to motivate himself to train as much and as hard as he used to, looking forward to all the records and pressure of that and the nr1 spot, also maybe a bit of being out of form and a bit of illness and there you go - just enough reasons for this.

Just kidding about the feeling sorry for him. I did miss mentioning the illness. That along with all the factors make it complicated. I'm sure, not being in his shoes, the whole motivation thing is much more complicated than we'll ever imagine.

The one thing I'll bet on is that when and if (I believe he'll make it) he gets to 15 he'll retire.

MichaelChang
04-04-2008, 07:11 AM
Pressure is definitely there, as he gets closer and closer to Sampras' record. With his current form, it is really hard to say how long the mono will stay on him. To me, it seems the mono is still there, if he really has mono. If that is true, I am not surprised if he gets no slam this year. Don't get me wrong, I am a big Fed fan and I really hope he breaks the records.

TennezSport
04-04-2008, 07:14 AM
I can not resest. If you seriously think this - you are in trrouble and I am not sure if there is something you should do to help yourself.

I think you meant to spell "resist" and "trouble", but I am not sure what you mean by "help yourself", it's just an opinion based on statements that Fed made earlier. Also Fed does not seem to be that upset about these losses and it just makes me think there is something in the works. So settle down, relax and watch history in the making :wink:

TennezSport :cool:

daddy
04-04-2008, 07:17 AM
Just kidding about the feeling sorry for him. I did miss mentioning the illness. That along with all the factors make it complicated. I'm sure, not being in his shoes, the whole motivation thing is much more complicated than we'll ever imagine.

The one thing I'll bet on is that when and if (I believe he'll make it) he gets to 15 he'll retire.

Speaking very objectivly, I do think he will reach 14 or 15 slams but I do think he has to notch up at least one if not a couple this year. French is probably done for him, I would ont say surely because I am not sure .. ;) But most probably he will not have a shot at RG as he did in last 3 years. So he has to get to the record on faster surfaces where he has fierce competition these days. Definitly he has to work hard to achieve this and definitly he has a shot being 27 in a couple of months. He has a couple of seasons if not 3 to play in pretty good shape. Though now people who wrote about him winning 20+ slams or 25 seem a bit silly, they always did to me but now I wonder if they got what a slam means ?

daddy
04-04-2008, 07:21 AM
I think you meant to spell "resist" and "trouble", but I am not sure what you mean by "help yourself", it's just an opinion based on statements that Fed made earlier. Also Fed does not seem to be that upset about these losses and it just makes me think there is something in the works. So settle down, relax and watch history in the making :wink:

TennezSport :cool:

Lol/ spelling was never my thing, especially having in mind that I've never been to english speaking environment. I think I am just about boarderline and people do understand me well.

As for what I ment, I ment that you should stop fooling yourself with this. There are no tennis pro's who will lose on purpose, not even the greatest of them all will not throw away a couple of master series shields when he is a couple of matches shy ..

leonardtay
04-04-2008, 07:25 AM
I think you meant to spell "resist" and "trouble", but I am not sure what you mean by "help yourself", it's just an opinion based on statements that Fed made earlier. Also Fed does not seem to be that upset about these losses and it just makes me think there is something in the works. So settle down, relax and watch history in the making :wink:

TennezSport :cool:

Here here.... or is it hear hear! In any case... I believe that Roger is capable of something special again this year.

bluescreen
04-04-2008, 07:27 AM
these r all very valid points. when comparing sampras to federer, federer was way more dominant than sampras at any one time, but, as others said, sampras' success was spread out over his entire career. even if federer only wins one slam a year, he's still on his way to beating pete's record.

he may not be playing as well as he has in previous years, but he's still playing well enough to maintain his #1 ranking.

daddy
04-04-2008, 07:28 AM
Also Fed does not seem to be that upset about these losses and it just makes me think there is something in the works.

It is four ?? Djokovic, Murray, Fish, Roddick ? Yes I know, hard to keep track of them all ..

leonardtay
04-04-2008, 07:29 AM
Lol/ spelling was never my thing, especially having in mind that I've never been to english speaking environment. I think I am just about boarderline and people do understand me well.

As for what I ment, I ment that you should stop fooling yourself with this. There are no tennis pro's who will lose on purpose, not even the greatest of them all will not throw away a couple of master series shields when he is a couple of matches shy ..

I do not think that Tennez meant that Roger lost on purpose... he meant that Roger's master plan taking into account the setback in fitness preparation at the beginning of the year is moving as per plan... hence if he could win IW or Miami, well all the better but realistically speaking, there was always going to be a good chance for other players to beat him. Hence he did not seem too upset about the loss to Roddick... and as such when Roger's plan comes to fruition, what we will see is another special year from him... no one is saying he tanked the match or purposely wanted to lose.

kingbishop
04-04-2008, 07:31 AM
All i have to say is rafa will take the french, take wimbledon, and lose in the finals of US OPen

daddy
04-04-2008, 07:43 AM
I do not think that Tennez meant that Roger lost on purpose... he meant that Roger's master plan taking into account the setback in fitness preparation at the beginning of the year is moving as per plan... hence if he could win IW or Miami, well all the better but realistically speaking, there was always going to be a good chance for other players to beat him. Hence he did not seem too upset about the loss to Roddick... and as such when Roger's plan comes to fruition, what we will see is another special year from him... no one is saying he tanked the match or purposely wanted to lose.

I am not buying the masterplan thing. We all play and we all know how hard is it to keep all the things in order and hit those perfect shots day in and day out. I am sure we all know that a few loses are usual thing if your name is not Federer but if it is ? Despite the illness and everything I am sure he would go full on. If he keeps himself from playing hard and tough finals in order to reach the very same in a month or two months time .. sounds strange ? Too many excuses in my mind, Ive heard them all and I dont buy them anymore.

I am sure he will regain some kind of form and play much better as time passes, I said he has around 15 - 20 trophys to win imo, few GS's also, but I am also sure he will never play at the level he did in 04-07 period of total dominance.

TennezSport
04-04-2008, 07:52 AM
I do not think that Tennez meant that Roger lost on purpose... he meant that Roger's master plan taking into account the setback in fitness preparation at the beginning of the year is moving as per plan... hence if he could win IW or Miami, well all the better but realistically speaking, there was always going to be a good chance for other players to beat him. Hence he did not seem too upset about the loss to Roddick... and as such when Roger's plan comes to fruition, what we will see is another special year from him... no one is saying he tanked the match or purposely wanted to lose.

Exactly, you understood my meaning. D, I did not mean to imply that Fed tanked. Remember he only lost the Roddick match by 4 points on his own errors.

Fed would never want to lose ever or would he ever do it on purpose. However, as he stated himself, I think he is looking at the bigger picture, while getting himself ready for the really tough clay season and second half of the year.

He is getting better and improving his fitness while trying to avoid a relaspe. You don't lose 6 pounds of muscle when sick and just put it back on and play again right away. So I think he is working his way to peaking at the French and Wimbly. If he makes that and stays healthy the rest of the year should fall into form for him. Peace

TennezSport :cool:

danb
04-04-2008, 09:08 AM
At the risk of taking abuse I'll state my opinion. I believe that Fed at this stage in his career, much like Sampras at about the same age and stage, has not only pulled back on his tournaments but is not training as hard as he once was. I'm not there so itís only a guess. But the whole not playing as many tournaments and trying to peak at just the right time thing is difficult for anyone. I believe that Fed like Sampras at this stage is actually suffering from a touch of burn out. They just easily beat everyone, when they want to. They won all the big titles. Have to globe trot around the world to the little tournaments and all the while everyone they play is gunning for them with nothing to lose. Both Fed and Sampras have more money at this stage then they and their kids could spend. Worrying about continuing their tennis legacy has worn on them. They both have elevated to GOAT status and now have little to prove. Sure Fed is chasing Sampras GS record now. But the closer he gets, just as the closer Sampras got to Laver, the more difficult it becomes. When and if Fed get number 15 he's done.

Playing tennis at Fedís level day in and day out is not as easy as he makes it look. I feel sorry for him and will gladly fill in.

Good points. Nicely put.

Djokovicfan4life
04-04-2008, 09:15 AM
This question is basically asking, "Can the number one player in the world win on his best surface?"

Of course he can.

Katlion
04-04-2008, 09:24 AM
I sure hope so... GOOD LUCK FED!! :D

Khale
04-04-2008, 09:42 AM
He must be in tip-top shape to win Wimbledon this year. The one thing I've seen in his matches this year is that his overall movement in strokes, footwork is a tad slower. Which we saw evident against Roddick and Fish. Quickness is of the essence at Wimbledon, and endurance at French.

If those two factors are still at plaguing Roger in the next few months....he may not win a Major this year!! This is not including the ever-increasing mental pressure from the media and history.

serve/and/volley
04-04-2008, 09:48 AM
Of course he can win it. But then again, so can Roddick, and even Nadal. The difference this year, is that it is not a foregone conclusion that he will win it.

veroniquem
04-04-2008, 09:48 AM
I am not buying the masterplan thing. We all play and we all know how hard is it to keep all the things in order and hit those perfect shots day in and day out. I am sure we all know that a few loses are usual thing if your name is not Federer but if it is ? Despite the illness and everything I am sure he would go full on. If he keeps himself from playing hard and tough finals in order to reach the very same in a month or two months time .. sounds strange ? Too many excuses in my mind, Ive heard them all and I dont buy them anymore.

I am sure he will regain some kind of form and play much better as time passes, I said he has around 15 - 20 trophys to win imo, few GS's also, but I am also sure he will never play at the level he did in 04-07 period of total dominance.
Amen!
10 char

NamRanger
04-04-2008, 09:58 AM
Roddick will win Wimbledon if he ever discovers how to rip forehands again like in Dubai.

danb
04-04-2008, 02:53 PM
If you look at Sampras in 1998 (Federer being exactly 10 years younger), he also started badly with the Majors and Masters:
Quarterfinals of AO (lost to Kucera)
R16 Indian Wells (lost to Muster)
R32 Miami (lost to Ferreira)
R16 Monte Carlo (lost to Santoro 61 61!!)
R16 Rome (lost to Chang)
R64 Roland Garros (lost to Delgado)
He even then went out to Mark Woodforde at Queens in the 3rd round.

But still he won Wimbledon and stayed at #1 in the world.

Federer is doing better than that, so I think he can at least win Wimbledon (and Halle) to keep the grass court streak going.

Not if he plays like in Miami...

Otherside
04-04-2008, 06:15 PM
something ix clearly wrong, the mono, mirka pregnant or whatever. The way he is playing right now is just said. The other guys has not caught up.
I'll say it again. He has a visible belly through the shirt and I can't see how that can happen to a super athlete like Fed. He has to fix his fitness before ha can comeback to his old game!
Going into the clayseason wit this condition is bound to fail!

fastdunn
04-04-2008, 06:25 PM
But still he won Wimbledon and stayed at #1 in the world.


The tennis at Wimbledon was so much different from outside world back then.
Wimbledon was being increasingly estranged from outside main stream tennis.

And ATP had pretty big indoor carpet season including season ending Master's.
If Sampras could win a slam, he could just dominate indoor season and finish off as #1. Everything else was just extra.

The tennis was very polarized and specialized on surfaces in 90's.

Now it is a bit different. If Federer is truely in decline on hard court, I don't think grass is safe as in 90's.
I think it's easier to dominate the tour but it's harder to extend it. That's tougher part for Federer in coming years.

crawl4
04-04-2008, 06:38 PM
of course he can but we dont no if he will

no one knows and this is pointless