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View Full Version : When will Fed lose #1?


jamesblakefan#1
04-04-2008, 10:00 AM
OK, with all the Fed doomsday sayers, put your $ where your mouth is. When exactly will Fed use the #1 spot?

Moose Malloy
04-04-2008, 10:09 AM
I'm not exactly a numbers cruncher, but if Fed loses early in Monte Carlo & Hamburg, & Nadal wins both, wouldn't he pass Fed?

jamesblakefan#1
04-04-2008, 10:10 AM
I'm not exactly a numbers cruncher, but if Fed loses early in Monte Carlo & Rome, & Nadal wins both, wouldn't he pass Fed?

I wasn't sure about the #'s and stuff, as far as before the French. Some help?

PROTENNIS63
04-04-2008, 10:28 AM
I'm not exactly a numbers cruncher, but if Fed loses early in Monte Carlo & Hamburg, & Nadal wins both, wouldn't he pass Fed?

Not exactly. Nadal won every tournament in the clay season except Hamburg. There, he got the finals. So he has a lot of points to defend. But Fed also has a lot of points to defend.

dima
04-04-2008, 10:36 AM
Well Federer is playing in Estoril so he'll gain some points from that.

jamesblakefan#1
04-04-2008, 10:45 AM
Well Federer is playing in Estoril so he'll gain some points from that.

Yeah, but not nearly as much as he'd lose if he stays in the slump. Estoril is only 200 for a win. Hamburg win was 500. The main tourneys for him are FO and Wimby. He can't go out early at either of those.

Gerry
04-04-2008, 10:49 AM
Not exactly. Nadal won every tournament in the clay season except Hamburg. There, he got the finals. So he has a lot of points to defend. But Fed also has a lot of points to defend.

Well, if my numbers are correct, Nadal could clinch #1 spot if he wins Miami, Monte Carlo and Hamburg and Federer loses in SF in both clay tournaments (unless he wins Estoril).

In my personal opinion i don't think Nadal can win all 3... but math says he can reach the top before FO.

G.

jlan
04-04-2008, 11:08 AM
Federer isn't gonna lose his #1 ranking any time soon.

Nadal has 2650 points to defend in the upcoming clay court season. He will gain no points if he successfully defends his titles. He'll only gain 150 points if he wins Hamburg.

fastdunn
04-04-2008, 11:12 AM
I'm not exactly a numbers cruncher, but if Fed loses early in Monte Carlo & Hamburg, & Nadal wins both, wouldn't he pass Fed?

that's about 700 points. maybe not quite enough. maybe if nadal wins miami. if you include FO, it was about 1700 points, when I checked last time.

if federer has horrible clay season (including FO) and nadal defends everything, this could happen in about 2 months.

Gerry
04-04-2008, 11:19 AM
Federer isn't gonna lose his #1 ranking any time soon.

Nadal has 2650 points to defend in the upcoming clay court season. He will gain no points if he successfully defends his titles. He'll only gain 150 points if he wins Hamburg.

Right now Nadal is 845 points behind Federer, but that will change next monday and, if Nadal wins Miami, the difference will be 520. So it would be possible for Nadal to claim #1 spot if Federer fails to defend the MC final points (350) and Hamburg win points (500).

The way Federer has been playing makes possible for him to lose #1 before FO... but again, i don't think Nadal will win al 3 tournaments.

G.

fantom
04-04-2008, 11:20 AM
Federer just won a bunch of points from his performances in IW and Miami, right?

Gerry
04-04-2008, 11:35 AM
Federer just won a bunch of points from his performances in IW and Miami, right?

I believe he won 270 points total (220 IW, 50 MIA).

G.

Rickson
04-04-2008, 11:38 AM
2011......

fastdunn
04-04-2008, 11:39 AM
2011......

that will be when US housing market will hit the bottom.

asintu
04-04-2008, 11:46 AM
OK, with all the Fed doomsday sayers, put your $ where your mouth is. When exactly will Fed use the #1 spot?

after Rome

gerikoh
04-04-2008, 11:46 AM
roddick will beat fed in clay lol

ksbh
04-04-2008, 11:49 AM
Earlier, the better!

OK, with all the Fed doomsday sayers, put your $ where your mouth is. When exactly will Fed use the #1 spot?

johnny ballgame
04-04-2008, 11:52 AM
He'll lose it the week of Hamburg.

Ryoma Kun
04-04-2008, 11:55 AM
i personally think it is when djokovich becomes #1, nadal will never be able to do it

WhiskeyEE
04-04-2008, 11:58 AM
I'll guess that he loses it after the French.

fastdunn
04-04-2008, 11:59 AM
fed played only 16 tournaments. if the race gets tight, he can play a few more tournaments after us open.

Blade0324
04-04-2008, 12:09 PM
I have to agree with one of the other posters it will be just after Nadal wins the French. Roger will regain after wimby and depending on how well Djoker plays the clay court season, and wimby he could take #1 sometime during the US open series. I think we could see 3 mens hold the #1 spot this year. Not sure who I see ending the year at #1 yet though.

iriraz
04-04-2008, 12:10 PM
roddick will beat fed in clay lol

I wouldn`t go that far.Roddick doesn`t usually compete in the masters events like Monte Carlo or Rome and even Hamburg.
For Roddick on clay means:Houston,Poertschach and in best case scenario round 3 at Roland Garros

Rob_C
04-04-2008, 12:40 PM
U guys are forgetting that Nadal won Rome also, another 500 pts. Fed lost early there to Volandri last year.

daddy
04-04-2008, 02:48 PM
This is the deal. After the Miami he heads back to europe and plays in this order :

Estoril - no points to defend
Monte Carlo - final to defend 350 pts
Rome - quarters to defend 75 pts
Hamburg - defender of the throne 500pts
Roland Garros - final to defend, 700pts

Nadal on the other hand defends :

Monte Carlo - win to defend 500pts
Barcelona - win to defend 300pts
Rome - win to defend 500pts
Hamburg - final to defend 350pts
Roland Garros - win to defend 1000 pts

Clearly Fedrer will have at least 520 points in hand before the clay ( if Nadal wins in Miami ). He will play Estoril to gain a bit more points - whatever he gets is good for him. Then what is working for him is his bad result in Rome and that alone makes me think he will not lose his ranking soon, he will gain in Estoril and Rome just enough so that he can not lose the spot in Monte Carlo and Hamburg. He could possibly lose it after the RG if he is knocked out early, which is hard to believe at this point. Nadals wins in last year does not suit him now, since he has to replicate the performance, Barcelona most notably one tourney he must enter and win if he wants to take a shot at being nr1 before RG.

Conclusion - IMO Federer stays nr1 into the clay season and unless he is knocked out in RG in the first week, he stays nr1 after, surely until the Canada and Cincinatti or more likely until the USO.