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Rhino
06-09-2008, 07:14 AM
People say he's lost a lot of ground to Rafa on clay.
Actually if you look at the rankings, he's gained a lot of ground...

In 2007 Roger earned 1625 points from the clay season.
In 2007 Nadal earned 2650 points from the clay season.

In 2008 Roger earned 1700 points from the clay season.
In 2008 Nadal earned 2305 points from the clay season.

So you see, he's catching up!
(Clay season beginning 14th April and ending after the RG final).

I know, I know, he was badly beaten at RG, but I thought Fed fans might need some cheering up. :)

daddy
06-09-2008, 07:21 AM
Bad news is he has 4175 points to defend till the end of the year while Djokovic has 2175 and Nadal has 2060, both more than 2000pts less to their name in 2nd part of 2007. This way we can see why did people predict latter part of the season to be crucial to his ranking.

I also think that packed claycourt schedule had a lot to do with Rafael's defeat to JCF and consequent loss of almost 500pts.

Rhino
06-09-2008, 07:55 AM
Well sure but Nadal went on a 10 month streak without a title following Stuttgart (a rogue clay event that he tacked on to the end of Wimbledon).
Federer can start by adding free points from Halle, and then Wimbledon could yeald any combination of results. My guess is that Federer will at least make the semifinals - and is still probably the favorite to win.
Nadal could come unstuck at Wimbledon by meeting any number of dangerous players that could topple him. He often has extremely difficult matches (Kendrick, Soderling) and needs bouts of good luck (Youzhny's back, Djokovic's court time) to make the final, so one false move and we could see him slip to #3.
I have the feeling that Djokovic could win Queens, which would put him close to Nadal even before Wimbledon starts.

montx
06-09-2008, 07:56 AM
One thing to remember for Federer is he's got to keep fighting through this storm if he hopes to go for glory.

Go Federer!

daddy
06-09-2008, 07:58 AM
I was just mixing up the post with additional info. I feel that Rafa will not extend his points tally that much to catch up Federer as Federer will ( probably ) drop. Let's just say that at this point of the season it's hard to predict Federer will win Wimbledon, Us Open and Year End Masters. He could but at this point, you'd give him 50% chance correct ? Well any drop here and he may find himself in a race for the top - regardless if its going to be with Djokovic or Nadal and I sincerly doubt that both of them will fail to defend their points.

zagor
06-09-2008, 07:59 AM
Good news for Fed fans will be if Roger takes Wimbledon again.At this point of career it's not that much about the number one ranking for Fed IMO,it's all about slams and chasing Pete's record.

daddy
06-09-2008, 08:00 AM
Good news for Fed fans will be if Roger takes Wimbledon again.At this point of career it's not that much about the number one ranking for Fed IMO,it's all about slams and chasing Pete's record.

Which part of the career ? Would you say as a fan its a latter stage or mid ?

zagor
06-09-2008, 08:02 AM
Which part of the career ? Would you say as a fan its a latter stage or mid ?

Latter stage,he'll turn 27 this year and today's slower surfaced baseline oriented game which includes a lot of defense and running favours younger players.

flyer
06-09-2008, 08:05 AM
People say he's lost a lot of ground to Rafa on clay.
Actually if you look at the rankings, he's gained a lot of ground...

In 2007 Roger earned 1625 points from the clay season.
In 2007 Nadal earned 2650 points from the clay season.

In 2008 Roger earned 1700 points from the clay season.
In 2008 Nadal earned 2305 points from the clay season.

So you see, he's catching up!
(Clay season beginning 14th April and ending after the RG final).

I know, I know, he was badly beaten at RG, but I thought Fed fans might need some cheering up. :)

Sorry but thats unrealistic, they are just numbers you have to look beyond the numbers....consider this:

1. Federer played Estoril, which he did not last year, so he picked up some free and easy points there

2. The condensed season wore out Nadal and forced an early exit in Rome

3. This year Nadal beat Federer in Hamburg, in conditions favorable for Federer

4. The difference between 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4 and 6-1 6-3 6-0

All you really ahve to do is scratch the surface and the truth is quite evident

Rhino
06-09-2008, 08:05 AM
Good news for Fed fans will be if Roger takes Wimbledon again.

Yeah, 6 Wimbledons in a row - that would silence a lot of critics and totally rescue his year.

Fedace
06-09-2008, 08:07 AM
Bad news is he has 4175 points to defend till the end of the year while Djokovic has 2175 and Nadal has 2060, both more than 2000pts less to their name in 2nd part of 2007. This way we can see why did people predict latter part of the season to be crucial to his ranking.

I also think that packed claycourt schedule had a lot to do with Rafael's defeat to JCF and consequent loss of almost 500pts.

Very intellingent post. thank you.

Fedace
06-09-2008, 08:08 AM
People say he's lost a lot of ground to Rafa on clay.
Actually if you look at the rankings, he's gained a lot of ground...

In 2007 Roger earned 1625 points from the clay season.
In 2007 Nadal earned 2650 points from the clay season.

In 2008 Roger earned 1700 points from the clay season.
In 2008 Nadal earned 2305 points from the clay season.

So you see, he's catching up!
(Clay season beginning 14th April and ending after the RG final).

I know, I know, he was badly beaten at RG, but I thought Fed fans might need some cheering up. :)

Only problem with this is that Roger won Estoril early in the season. The field in Estoril was not very strong. so it gives off false impression.

Rhino
06-09-2008, 08:08 AM
Sorry but thats unrealistic, they are just numbers you have to look beyond the numbers....consider this:

1. Federer played Estoril, which he did not last year, so he picked up some free and easy points there

2. The condensed season wore out Nadal and forced an early exit in Rome

3. This year Nadal beat Federer in Hamburg, in conditions favorable for Federer

4. The difference between 6-3 4-6 6-3 6-4 and 6-1 6-3 6-0

All you really ahve to do is scratch the surface and the truth is quite evident

Yes, I know all this, as do all of the Federer fans, which is precisely why it's a nice consolation prize to point out that these things have not translated into negative ranking points - quite the opposite.

I always look on the bright side!!

daddy
06-09-2008, 08:11 AM
Latter stage,he'll turn 27 this year and today's slower surfaced baseline oriented game which includes a lot of defense and running favours younger players.

I was thinking the same. I dont think he can last like Agassi or even like Sampras who relied more on short points and played almost a different era ( equipment, surface ) certanly stylewise. Then I did not want to state something like that because he is in good condition and phisically looks great, but I just dont see such a guy hanging around for years for a few more titles unles he is short a slam for 14.

Lotto
06-09-2008, 08:16 AM
If Roger wins at Wimbledon and Halle it will get his confidence back going into the Hard Court season.

And after the grass season don't think of the points he has to defend. Think of the ones he has to win that he didn't last year and think of the ones that he has to win again like he did last year.

If he wins all four:

Toronto - Final last year
Cincinatti - Winner
Beijing - Doesn't get ranking points I don't think but a gold medal would send his confidence through the roof before the US Open
US Open - Winner
Stockholm - Didn't play, points to be picken up
Madrid - Final, points to win
Swiss Indoors - Winner
Paris - Points to win
Shanghai- Winner

So, a great grass court season could pick Roger up out of his mental slump.

Like I mean, there's nothing wrong phyiscally or technically with him it's just that he's lost his Self-Belief. He needs to reignite that deep down self-belief that he had during 2006. It's the only reason he loses to Nadal on clay. Without consciously realising it, he subconsciously believes he can't win and will lose. If he can change that subconscious belief he is unbeatable virtually anywhere except maybe clay against Nadal.

That's all he needs and we'll have our Roger back.

flyer
06-09-2008, 08:16 AM
Yes, I know all this, as do all of the Federer fans, which is precisely why it's a nice consolation prize to point out that these things have not translated into negative ranking points - quite the opposite.

I always look on the bright side!!

ok if that helps you sleep at night, but if you have to look for the bright side, that means theres another not so bright side you choose to ignore...

David L
06-09-2008, 08:31 AM
If a grinder like Moya can play into his 30s, it will be a cinch for Federer, who has way more talent and game than him. Agassi also had a more taxing game than Federer, who can win cheap points on his serve and with his forehand on the quicker surfaces. At 26, he has plenty of time to still achieve a lot in the game. He should have no physical problems in his late 20s, it's just a question of still being hungry. For all we know, we could see his best form at 27-28 and further.

Secondly, I think people misread Federer. Federer's pride, to me, does not appear to be so big that he will lose interest in the game the moment he is not ranked No.1. That's what people imagine about themselves if they were in his position. He has already said many times he is mentally prepared for the moment he ceases to win every other tournament. As it stands, he is still the best player in the world and will be kicking some *** later in the season

zagor
06-09-2008, 08:36 AM
If a grinder like Moya can play into his 30s, it will be a cinch for Federer, who has way more talent and game than him. Agassi also had a more taxing game than Federer, who can win cheap points on his serve and with his forehand on the quicker surfaces. At 26, he has plenty of time to still achieve a lot in the game. He should have no physical problems in his late 20s, it's just a question of still being hungry. For all we know, we could see his best form at 27-28 and further.

Secondly, I think people misread Federer. Federer's pride, to me, does not appear to be so big that he will lose interest in the game the moment he is not ranked No.1. That's what people imagine about themselves if they were in his position. He has already said many times he is mentally prepared for the moment he ceases to win every other tournament. As it stands, he is still the best player in the world and will be kicking some *** later in the season

I appreciate this post of yours and hope you're right.I would like to see him win as many slams and play as long as possible.I hope Fed pulls off Wimbledon-USO double this year and proves he's still the King.

Rhino
06-09-2008, 08:55 AM
ok if that helps you sleep at night, but if you have to look for the bright side, that means theres another not so bright side you choose to ignore...

I haven't chosen to ignore the obvious result of the final, that would be impossible; but some people are all doom-and-gloom, and this bright side is also built on hard ranking-point facts.
i.e. it is a fact that Roger extended his lead during the clay court season, but Nadal has narrowed his lead over the #3 position to just 360 points.

It's interesting to note that after the final of RG last year, Rafa was 2185 points clear of the #3 player.

malakas
06-09-2008, 08:58 AM
I think also Beijing Olympics will award ranking points!

sureshs
06-09-2008, 09:03 AM
Don't forget that another good news for Federer is he has made some more money by reaching the finals of clay court tournaments.

malakas
06-09-2008, 10:48 AM
Don't forget that another good news for Federer is he has made some more money by reaching the finals of clay court tournaments.

It's supposed to be Good news about Federer fans not himself.