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View Full Version : Who do you think has the toughest draw out of the top 4 players?


All-rounder
01-17-2009, 04:48 AM
I say Federer he plays seppi ranked 34 in the first round then carlose moya in the second and then safin in third :shock:

thejoe
01-17-2009, 05:24 AM
Sure, Federer's draw looks tough on paper, but he doesn't have Nadal or Murray in his side of the draw. Those are pretty much the only two players that have consistently troubled him over the past 6 months.

ttbrowne
01-17-2009, 06:12 AM
Federer by far has a tougher road.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 06:30 AM
Moya was beaten last week by Dewarman, 2nd round of Chennai ( before that he lost to Petzchner), Safin has lost in first or second round of every single tournament he's played in the last months (except Moscow). You guys totally crack me up. "My lord, I beseech you to grant Fed as much skills and talent as Dewarman, just for this once, pleaaaaaase". I rest my case :rolleyes:

thejoe
01-17-2009, 06:57 AM
Moya was beaten last week by Dewarman, 2nd round of Chennai ( before that he lost to Petzchner), Safin has lost in first or second round of every single tournament he's played in the last months (except Moscow). You guys totally crack me up. "My lord, I beseech you to grant Fed as much skills and talent as Dewarman, just for this once, pleaaaaaase". I rest my case :rolleyes:

Yes, and Nadal has it really tough against Rochus in the first round :roll: Sure, the strength of Federer's draw is overrated, but its still stronger than Nadal's section.

JankovicFan
01-17-2009, 07:03 AM
I thought Hewitt had it especially tough in his circumstances, going against Gonzalez in the first round. Actually, I could say it is Gonzalez who is in for a scrap.

I would add that if Tsonga is out, everything changes, certainly in Murray's favor, who may well be the favorite already.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 07:05 AM
Yes, and Nadal has it really tough against Rochus in the first round :roll: Sure, the strength of Federer's draw is overrated, but its still stronger than Nadal's section.
Ah you forgot to mention the guys AFTER Rochus: Tursunov, Gasquet, Gonzalez, Hewitt, Monfils, Karlovic, Simon: all out of the top 50 tools, qualif or claycourt specialists, yeah!

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 07:07 AM
I thought Hewitt had it especially tough in his circumstances, going against Gonzalez in the first round. Actually, I could say it is Gonzalez who is in for a scrap.

I would add that if Tsonga is out, everything changes, certainly in Murray's favor, who may well be the favorite already.
I think Tsonga retired in Sydney so as not to have to skip the AO. His ranking would plummet, I think he will play by hook or by crook, he'll be there.

TheMusicLover
01-17-2009, 07:10 AM
Why is there no option "it is a reasonably fair and equally difficult draw for all of them"?

chlsmo
01-17-2009, 07:18 AM
I say Federer is the favorite, so logic says that Djokovich will have the toughest draw.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 07:30 AM
Ah you forgot to mention the guys AFTER Rochus: Tursunov, Gasquet, Gonzalez, Hewitt, Monfils, Karlovic, Simon: all out of the top 50 tools, qualif or claycourt specialists, yeah!

You complain about Safin and yet you include Hewitt for Nadal? :shock::shock::shock:

matchmaker
01-17-2009, 07:40 AM
I really don't understand some posters who talk about the strength of Fed's draw. Every independent article I have read until now, and I mean in the media, not on a fanboyish tennis forum, agrees Nadal has an incredibly tough draw with Murray on his side and also Tsonga and Monfils, both of whom beat him on HC.

While Fed has a tentative Safin, and a not so in shape Djoko in his half. Surely he would have signed for that.

Nadal has the toughest draw, Murray the easiest.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 07:45 AM
Djokovic is 3rd and defending champion. Murray just has a bandwagon. Tsonga is injured. Monfils is only average on hard court in my opinion.

Holly
01-17-2009, 07:47 AM
Tennis.com has the same poll. Nadal is the winner over there.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 07:49 AM
Tennis.com has the same poll. Nadal is the winner over there.

Not anymore, Federer is also in the lead there :twisted::):oops:.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 07:54 AM
You complain about Safin and yet you include Hewitt for Nadal? :shock::shock::shock:
In Australia definitely, no easy match vs Hewitt at AO (he feels like he has to be a hero there, remember his 5 setter against Baghdatis last year?). I'm not saying Hewitt can win but no easy match for sure.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 07:55 AM
In Australia definitely, no easy match vs Hewitt at AO (he feels like he has to be a hero there, remember his 5 setter against Baghdatis last year?). I'm not saying Hewitt can win but no easy match for sure.

Remember Safin as the ACTUAL champion at the AO?

All-rounder
01-17-2009, 07:57 AM
I really don't understand some posters who talk about the strength of Fed's draw. Every independent article I have read until now, and I mean in the media, not on a fanboyish tennis forum, agrees Nadal has an incredibly tough draw with Murray on his side and also Tsonga and Monfils, both of whom beat him on HC.

While Fed has a tentative Safin, and a not so in shape Djoko in his half. Surely he would have signed for that.

Nadal has the toughest draw, Murray the easiest.
very true i have to agree there are players on nadal section that can beat him where as players for federer are players that have passed there prime and have very little chance to trouble Fed but my concern is novak as he has the easiest draw and is defending champion also murray has a easy draw

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 08:00 AM
Djokovic is 3rd and defending champion. Murray just has a bandwagon. Tsonga is injured. Monfils is only average on hard court in my opinion.
"a bandwagon"? since July 2008? Djokovic has been playing like crap recently, it would take a miracle for him to pull anything special at AO. (He can do it but I don't know how high the odds are...)

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 08:01 AM
Remember Safin as the ACTUAL champion at the AO?
Oh you mean 20 years ago? Please wake up from your dream. It's time for "back to the present".

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 08:06 AM
I really don't understand some posters who talk about the strength of Fed's draw. Every independent article I have read until now, and I mean in the media, not on a fanboyish tennis forum, agrees Nadal has an incredibly tough draw with Murray on his side and also Tsonga and Monfils, both of whom beat him on HC.

While Fed has a tentative Safin, and a not so in shape Djoko in his half. Surely he would have signed for that.

Nadal has the toughest draw, Murray the easiest.
Finally a sensible post, thank you for being so rational (hard to come across these days...), and don't forget Simon in your list of players that could do serious damage.

thejoe
01-17-2009, 08:23 AM
Finally a sensible post, thank you for being so rational (hard to come across these days...), and don't forget Simon in your list of players that could do serious damage.

He isn't being rational, and you're only saying he is because he is agreeing with you.

Oh you mean 20 years ago? Please wake up from your dream. It's time for "back to the present".

Judging by this comment, I can see you've been watching tennis for 5, maybe 10 minutes?

If you knew anything, then you would know that Safin can still beat anyone.

All-rounder
01-17-2009, 08:29 AM
"a bandwagon"? since July 2008? Djokovic has been playing like crap recently, it would take a miracle for him to pull anything special at AO. (He can do it but I don't know how high the odds are...)
i agree he has been playing terrible first blaming his new racket then blaming the weather?? (how can you blame the weather it isn't like it was raining in Australia) and as for his chances on defending his title its almost the same as sharapova's and remember she is injured and is not taking part I seriously doubt he can find his form in less than 48 hours

oneleggedcardinal
01-17-2009, 09:16 AM
Finally a sensible post, thank you for being so rational (hard to come across these days...), and don't forget Simon in your list of players that could do serious damage.

Sensible and rational= anything making Nadal look awesome?

oneleggedcardinal
01-17-2009, 09:26 AM
"a bandwagon"? since July 2008? Djokovic has been playing like crap recently, it would take a miracle for him to pull anything special at AO. (He can do it but I don't know how high the odds are...)

Do you honestly think Djokovic isn't going to fight incredibly hard for something as important as the defense of his title and points?

matchmaker
01-17-2009, 09:30 AM
Finally a sensible post, thank you for being so rational (hard to come across these days...), and don't forget Simon in your list of players that could do serious damage.

Yes, I forgot about Simon, thank you for reminding me.

This whole discussion looks like an attempt for Federer worshippers to convince people that Fed has a difficult draw, when he hasn't. It is as if they are looking for excuses beforehand.

Every single article I have read about the draw until now consideres Fed's draw a lot easier than Nadal's. Only certain posters seem to see things differently here. With all due respect for Federer, in his prime he would have just strolled through this draw.

Fed has a 9-2 H2H versus Safin, only wins for Safin being the famous AO victory and a home tournament in Moscow. Apart from that Fed has been all over him. And Safin is now way past his prime.

Against Djoko, Fed leads 7-2, only victories for Djoko being the AO victory and the Canadian Masters. Djokovic is in a slump since the beginning of the year. And Fed beat him at the USO last time.

Now against Murray he is 2-5 down (even six if you add the recent exhibition tournament). Murray is on a high and is the man to beat for the moment.

Against Gilles Simon he is 0-2 down.

So if I were Fed and could choose the draw myself, I would choose to have the first two in my draw and the last two on the other half, because of course it is a GS tournament and you are bound to run into some kind of good player, you can't have it all. Fed fans are maybe expecting Fed to get a draw without any top seeds in it before he gets to the final. Wake up, that is impossible.

The only little thing for Fed that could be worrying is the presence of Nalbandian on his side. They have quite a balance H2H: 10-8 for Fed. But he can only meet Nalby in the SF, according to the draw I checked. We all know that Nalby is not at his best in GS tournaments, so he will probably be eliminated by that time.

So, explain to me know what is so difficult about Fed's draw?

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 09:34 AM
Safin is past his prime but somehow Hewitt isn't. Makes so much sense.

veritech
01-17-2009, 09:42 AM
I really don't understand some posters who talk about the strength of Fed's draw. Every independent article I have read until now, and I mean in the media, not on a fanboyish tennis forum, agrees Nadal has an incredibly tough draw with Murray on his side and also Tsonga and Monfils, both of whom beat him on HC.

While Fed has a tentative Safin, and a not so in shape Djoko in his half. Surely he would have signed for that.

Nadal has the toughest draw, Murray the easiest.

keep in mind that tsonga is suffering from injuries and monfils has only been in 1 slam SF his whole career. and nadal is 3-1 with monfils.

David L
01-17-2009, 09:42 AM
Oh you mean 20 years ago? Please wake up from your dream. It's time for "back to the present".
Didn't he knock Djokovic out of Wimbledon last year?

Also, when one talks of a good or bad draw, the general idea is not to look at the complete road all the way to the final, otherwise everyone's draw is tough then. A good or bad draw usually refers to your quarter, not your semi-final and final opponent, both of whom will generally be about the same level if seeding goes to plan. In the early rounds, on the other, there's much more room for differences with the potential first couple of opponents ranging from top 40 to top 400.

veritech
01-17-2009, 09:42 AM
Safin is past his prime but somehow Hewitt isn't. Makes so much sense.

not just past his prime, but fresh out of hip surgery. if he was to meet nadal, it would be an easy straight setter.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 09:44 AM
Ah you forgot to mention the guys AFTER Rochus: Tursunov, Gasquet, Gonzalez, Hewitt, Monfils, Karlovic, Simon: all out of the top 50 tools, qualif or claycourt specialists, yeah!

Oh you forgot to throw in the world class Serra! I guess the AO must really like seeing Serra get his skull beat in as he beat Serra like a rented mule there last year. Nadal blitzed both Hewitt and Gonzalez at the Olympics. And Gasquet, surely you can't be serious Gasquet just packs up his gear and is ready to go after the first hard fought set which he inevitably loses. As for Karlovic and Simon, I'd be shocked if they even made past the 3rd round.

matchmaker
01-17-2009, 09:47 AM
Safin is past his prime but somehow Hewitt isn't. Makes so much sense.

But who says Hewitt is a major obstacle for Nadal? I don't really see Hewitt as a problem. One cannot expect anyone to have a draw at GS tournaments without any noteworty players in it. The difficulties for Nadal lie further on. Possible match ups with Simon, Tsonga, Monfils, Murray.

Truth be said thoug, Hewitt has a 4-4 H2H with Nadal, but the four victories were in Hewitt's prime and Nadal's first year on the circuit. From there on Nadal always won, except when he retired once at Queen's, probably because he did not really care.

If you look up Nadal's head-to-heads against all the other players, actually he has a winning record against virtually anyone:

The ones on Nadal's side
Murray: 5-1
Simon: 2-1
Tsonga: 2-1
Monfils: 3-1

The ones on Federer's side
Djokovic: 10-4
Safin: 1-0
Federer: 12-6
The only exception is Nalbandian, with whom he trails a 0-2 H2H

Now, it is Nadal's merit that his H2Hs look far more impressibe than Federer's. That does not mean he cannot get a difficult draw. You have to take into account that Nadal has proven to be vulnerable on HC, especially by the hands of Murray, Tsonga, Simon and Monfils, all of which he faces on his side of the draw. Granted, on HC Djoko and Nalby are also big obstacles for him, but you know that mathematically you can not have all the seeds on your side of the draw.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 09:47 AM
Safin is past his prime but somehow Hewitt isn't. Makes so much sense.
That is not at all what I said. I said AO is very special for Hewitt and lately Hewitt has been swinging -and not faring bad I must say- in the quarter-finals of an ATP tournament whereas Safin, remind me where Safin has been those last few weeks... on a tennis court? No?......Ah yes I remember now! In some bar brawl! Awesome preparation for AO if he intends to hit the ball with his fist or knock out the opponent before the end of the match...

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 09:49 AM
keep in mind that tsonga is suffering from injuries and monfils has only been in 1 slam SF his whole career. and nadal is 3-1 with monfils.
Yes but the one is very recent (the last match actually) and the semi was last year, Monfils is a young player on the rise, that's not something to ever take lightly.

oneleggedcardinal
01-17-2009, 09:49 AM
Finally a sensible post, thank you for being so rational (hard to come across these days...), and don't forget Simon in your list of players that could do serious damage.

No.

Yes, I forgot about Simon, thank you for reminding me.

This whole discussion looks like an attempt for Federer worshippers to convince people that Fed has a difficult draw, when he hasn't. It is as if they are looking for excuses beforehand.

Every single article I have read about the draw until now consideres Fed's draw a lot easier than Nadal's. Only certain posters seem to see things differently here. With all due respect for Federer, in his prime he would have just strolled through this draw.

Fed has a 9-2 H2H versus Safin, only wins for Safin being the famous AO victory and a home tournament in Moscow. Apart from that Fed has been all over him. And Safin is now way past his prime.

Against Djoko, Fed leads 7-2, only victories for Djoko being the AO victory and the Canadian Masters. Djokovic is in a slump since the beginning of the year. And Fed beat him at the USO last time.

Now against Murray he is 2-5 down (even six if you add the recent exhibition tournament). Murray is on a high and is the man to beat for the moment.

Against Gilles Simon he is 0-2 down.

So if I were Fed and could choose the draw myself, I would choose to have the first two in my draw and the last two on the other half, because of course it is a GS tournament and you are bound to run into some kind of good player, you can't have it all. Fed fans are maybe expecting Fed to get a draw without any top seeds in it before he gets to the final. Wake up, that is impossible.

The only little thing for Fed that could be worrying is the presence of Nalbandian on his side. They have quite a balance H2H: 10-8 for Fed. But he can only meet Nalby in the SF, according to the draw I checked. We all know that Nalby is not at his best in GS tournaments, so he will probably be eliminated by that time.

So, explain to me know what is so difficult about Fed's draw?

True, but don't forget veroniquem. She's doing the same for Nadal.

Oh you forgot to throw in the world class Serra! I guess the AO must really like seeing Serra get his skull beat in as he beat Serra like a rented mule there last year. Nadal blitzed both Hewitt and Gonzalez at the Olympics. And Gasquet, surely you can't be serious Gasquet just packs up his gear and is ready to go after the first hard fought set which he inevitably loses. As for Karlovic and Simon, I'd be shocked if they even made past the 3rd round.

I'm not sure about Gonzalez (he could possibly do some damage), but you're spot on about Gasquet (even though he's one of my favorite players...hopefully he gets his **** together) and you're definitely right about Karlovic and Simon.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 09:54 AM
Is Del Potro to be taken lightly though? Remember his run late last year, which was mostly on hard courts.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 09:55 AM
Oh you forgot to throw in the world class Serra! I guess the AO must really like seeing Serra get his skull beat in as he beat Serra like a rented mule there last year. Nadal blitzed both Hewitt and Gonzalez at the Olympics. And Gasquet, surely you can't be serious Gasquet just packs up his gear and is ready to go after the first hard fought set which he inevitably loses. As for Karlovic and Simon, I'd be shocked if they even made past the 3rd round.
Gasquet and Nadal's matches are always extremely commpetitive and obviously you didn't watch the Olympics final because the match was also ultra competitive with very long disputed games (especially in the first set). You can sneer as much as you like those are not easy opponents in the first week of a slam.

DarthFed
01-17-2009, 09:55 AM
If the Draws were switched.....Djoko would become Dangerous...Safin would become dangerous, basically everyone on feds side of the draw will immediately become giant killers

Those on Nadals side of the draw sans Murray will become scrubs

It goes both ways in this topic

There is no such thing as an easy draw....the players make the draws look easy

Not only that...but an upset could occur at any time...just use last wimbledon as example...the majority of the top seeds were out before the 4th round

Gasquet and Nadal's matches are always extremely commpetitive and obviously you didn't watch the Olympics final because the match was also ultra competitive with very long disputed games (especially in the first set). You can sneer as much as you like those are not easy opponents in the first week of a slam.

Had they been on feds side they would be scrubs no?

Hmm i've reached 666 posts...bad omen

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 09:56 AM
Upsets will definitely happen. They always do. The chances for Nadal, Federer, Djoker, and Murray all reaching the semis is very slim.

TheMusicLover
01-17-2009, 10:02 AM
Upsets will definitely happen. They always do. The chances for Nadal, Federer, Djoker, and Murray all reaching the semis is very slim.

Yep. People seem to think that the top 4 seeds always all make the semis. Well, eh - NO. Did anyone expect to see Tsonga there last year, let alone making the finals? Not too many, I'd say!
Even more: Nadal's draw at the AO 2008 was considered to be a rather easy one by most...

So for once and for all time: whining about initial draws is just stupid.

matchmaker
01-17-2009, 10:05 AM
If the Draws were switched.....Djoko would become Dangerous...Safin would become dangerous, basically everyone on feds side of the draw will immediately become giant killers

Those on Nadals side of the draw sans Murray will become scrubs

It goes both ways in this topic

There is no such thing as an easy draw....the players make the draws look easy

Not only that...but an upset could occur at any time...just use last wimbledon as example...the majority of the top seeds were out before the 4th round



Had they been on feds side they would be scrubs no?

Hmm i've reached 666 posts...bad omen

What you say is very true. Fans of the number 1 and 2 players will always try to convince people that their player has the worst draw, so it looks all the more admirable when he wins. The seeding and draw systems see to it that in every half of the draw there is the same amount of good players, so one should not complain about that.

In a way many Fed fans can always argue that Nadal has an easy draw now, because he has positive head to heads with virtually anyone except Nalbandian.

But the same amounts for Nadal fans.

In this case I feel Fed might be a bit lucky to avoid Murray before the final, but that is about it. To win the whole thing, you have to win all your matches, so you are bound to bump into good players you will have to overcome.

A more interesting question is who will be the surprise finalist we have usually been having at the AO over the past few years. It would be improbable for Nadal and Fed to see each other in the final, IMO.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 10:07 AM
Yep. People seem to think that the top 4 seeds always all make the semis. Well, eh - NO. Did anyone expect to see Tsonga there last year, let alone making the finals? Not too many, I'd say!
Even more: Nadal's draw at the AO 2008 was considered to be a rather easy one by most...

So for once and for all time: whining about initial draws is just stupid.

Completely agreed. There will probably be a big up setter here as well. That too not some upcommer that we are talking about: Monflis, Tsonga, Del Potro etc. but someone completely out of the blue.

So just sit back and watch the tournament. I guess there is just nothing else to talk about right now for the next day and half so people are getting on a debate about "who has an easy draw".

edmondsm
01-17-2009, 10:08 AM
"a bandwagon"? since July 2008? Djokovic has been playing like crap recently, it would take a miracle for him to pull anything special at AO. (He can do it but I don't know how high the odds are...)


You know, I am very suspiscious about that Niemenin match. I don't think Djokovic wanted to be in the final of a tourny the week before he defended a slam title. I have a feeling that he went into that match with Jarkko hmmm let's say he wasn't going to bust his rear to win it. I think Djokovic will be fine.

zagor
01-17-2009, 10:10 AM
I'd say Nadal has the toughest draw this time.I like Fed's draw,Safin can be dangerous early on but Fed certainly has enough experience playing against him and seems in good enough form and match tough to beat him without many problems(although one should never count Safin out but Fed knows that).Djokovic can be very tough in the semis but Fed has beaten him the last time they played on HC and let's face it,Djokovic is in worse form than Murray at the moment and has trouble finding his game right now.Although of course he'll be very motivated to defend his title here so I certainly wouldn't count him out,maybe he'll found last year's form as the tournament goes on.

This whole discussion looks like an attempt for Federer worshippers to convince people that Fed has a difficult draw, when he hasn't. It is as if they are looking for excuses beforehand.

Oh yes,those "evil" Fed worshippers who always whine about draws and make excuses,I'm sure no other group of fans in this forum displays similar behaviour.Fed is my favourite player but that makes me a Fed fan,not a worshipper.

With all due respect for Federer, in his prime he would have just strolled through this draw.

Prime Fed strolled through most draws.If we're talking 2005-2006 Fed,he barely lost matches at all.

Fed has a 9-2 H2H versus Safin, only wins for Safin being the famous AO victory and a home tournament in Moscow. Apart from that Fed has been all over him. And Safin is now way past his prime.

Mostly agree,but Safin can still be dangerous to face in early rounds.This is also presumably his last year on tour so he'll also be pretty motivated.

Against Djoko, Fed leads 7-2, only victories for Djoko being the AO victory and the Canadian Masters. Djokovic is in a slump since the beginning of the year. And Fed beat him at the USO last time.

H2H doesn't always tell the whole story.True Fed beat Novak last time they met at USO but it was a closer match than the final with Murray and Djokovic beat Fed in straights last year at AO so he proved he can beat Fed in a major,not a lot of current players can say that.

Now against Murray he is 2-5 down (even six if you add the recent exhibition tournament). Murray is on a high and is the man to beat for the moment.

Yes,Murray is current in-form/hot/high on confidence player and has a nice streak of wins against Fed at the moment so I agree.

Against Gilles Simon he is 0-2 down.

Simon is not a good best of 5 match player,he never got past the 3d round in any slam in his whole career.So far he proved he can upset the big guns in best of 3,best of 5 matches are a whole different animal.I don't like his chances of upsetting any of of top 4 in slams.

Fed fans are maybe expecting Fed to get a draw without any top seeds in it before he gets to the final.

Nope,don't expect that.Slams were always about beating the best of the best.

The only little thing for Fed that could be worrying is the presence of Nalbandian on his side. They have quite a balance H2H: 10-8 for Fed. But he can only meet Nalby in the SF, according to the draw I checked. We all know that Nalby is not at his best in GS tournaments, so he will probably be eliminated by that time.

I think people forget that Nalbandian was pretty consistent in slams aside from the last 2 years,he reached the semis of all 4 slams and was pretty much a lock for quarters or semis during 2003-2006 period.Although I have to agree that last 2 years his performances in slams were plain bad,especially last year.

However,Nalbo started the year very well winning Sidney(don't remember him ever winning AO warm-up aside from this year)and seems to be in good form so I expect him to go deep here.I think he'll get past Roddick but lose to either Djokovic in quarters or Fed in semis.His H2H against Fed is good but he hasn't beaten Fed in a slam since 2003 so I'd like Fed's chances against him if they meet in semis but he always poses a danger to Federer.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 10:11 AM
Gasquet and Nadal's matches are always extremely commpetitive and obviously you didn't watch the Olympics final because the match was also ultra competitive with very long disputed games (especially in the first set). You can sneer as much as you like those are not easy opponents in the first week of a slam.

Hahaha, that's just too funny. Do you think that Gasquet even has a remote chance at beating Nadal in a best of 5 set match? Yeah, it's competitive, for the first set, after that it's complete destruction. Tell you what, if Gasquet beats Nadal in the AO this year you can come back here and say I told you so. Hell, if he even get's a set I'd be flabbergasted. Sure I saw the Olympics and I didn't really think the 1st set was all that competitive. Now the 2nd set, which was a tiebreak, was more competitive.

DarthFed
01-17-2009, 10:12 AM
Djoko's last match was a chance to be # 2..he seems to lose every decisive match in regards to overtaking fed..(and last year nadal)

zagor
01-17-2009, 10:16 AM
Oh you forgot to throw in the world class Serra! I guess the AO must really like seeing Serra get his skull beat in as he beat Serra like a rented mule there last year. Nadal blitzed both Hewitt and Gonzalez at the Olympics. And Gasquet, surely you can't be serious Gasquet just packs up his gear and is ready to go after the first hard fought set which he inevitably loses. As for Karlovic and Simon, I'd be shocked if they even made past the 3rd round.

Unfortunately,have to agree.Still,really love his game though.That beauty of a BH,smooth movement,good hands at the net.When he's on,he's a joy to watch,like that match against Fed in Monte Carlo 2005.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:25 AM
Didn't he knock Djokovic out of Wimbledon last year?

Also, when one talks of a good or bad draw, the general idea is not to look at the complete road all the way to the final, otherwise everyone's draw is tough then. A good or bad draw usually refers to your quarter, not your semi-final and final opponent, both of whom will generally be about the same level if seeding goes to plan. In the early rounds, on the other, there's much more room for differences with the potential first couple of opponents ranging from top 40 to top 400.
Yes, the quarter, that's exactly what I was referring to.

TennezSport
01-17-2009, 10:25 AM
Fed fans are maybe expecting Fed to get a draw without any top seeds in it before he gets to the final.

Oh, you mean like Rafa did last year getting to the semis without facing any top players, I see :twisted:

Look the draw looks to be very balanced and difficult for both players, just at different times in the tourny. However, this time Rafa has to face some actual talent that can definitely hurt him on HC. Welcome to #1; Fed did it for 4.5 years let's see what the KoC can do. Very interesting 2K9.

Cheers, TennezSport :cool:

edberg505
01-17-2009, 10:28 AM
Unfortunately,have to agree.Still,really love his game though.That beauty of a BH,smooth movement,good hands at the net.When he's on,he's a joy to watch,like that match against Fed in Monte Carlo 2005.

He makes things harder than they have to be for himself. If he would just play closer to the baseline he'd make things alot easier for himself. I noticed he has been trying to come to the net more looking at his past few matches. Hopefully he'll keep that up.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:28 AM
You know, I am very suspiscious about that Niemenin match. I don't think Djokovic wanted to be in the final of a tourny the week before he defended a slam title. I have a feeling that he went into that match with Jarkko hmmm let's say he wasn't going to bust his rear to win it. I think Djokovic will be fine.
That's definitely a possibility but coupled with the first round loss the week before, I don't know, it' s still up in the air about Djoko IMO.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 10:29 AM
Oh, you mean like Rafa did last year getting to the semis without facing any top players, I see :twisted:

Look the draw looks to be very balanced and difficult for both players, just at different times in the tourny. However, this time Rafa has to face some actual talent that can definitely hurt him on HC. Welcome to #1; Fed did it for 4.5 years let's see what the KoC can do. Very interesting 2K9.

Cheers, TennezSport :cool:

LoL good post. :)

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:36 AM
Oh, you mean like Rafa did last year getting to the semis without facing any top players, I see :twisted:

Look the draw looks to be very balanced and difficult for both players, just at different times in the tourny. However, this time Rafa has to face some actual talent that can definitely hurt him on HC. Welcome to #1; Fed did it for 4.5 years let's see what the KoC can do. Very interesting 2K9.

Cheers, TennezSport :cool:
How is hard draws related to being #1? Fed got more than his share of cushy draws while he was #1. I certainly expect Rafa to to get a few of those too! Back when, Fed's fans argument was "it's normal Fed gets those draws, that's the privilege of being #1, he worked very hard to get into a position to get these draws , he deserves them". Great, I'm waiting for the opportunity to use that wonderful logic about Rafa.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 10:39 AM
How is hard draws related to being #1? Fed got more than his share of cushy draws while he was #1. I certainly expect Rafa to to get a few of those too! Back when, Fed's fans argument was "it's normal Fed gets those draws, that's the privilege of being #1, he worked very hard to get into a position to get these draws , he deserves them". Great, I'm waiting for the opportunity to use that wonderful logic about Rafa.

But the problem is it wouldn't have matted who they put in Federer's draw in the past 4.5 years. He made them look easy.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 10:44 AM
Federer used to have people like Hewitt on his half and he would make them cry. Same with Roddick. Not his fault he even dominated the best of the best. Thats what you do when you want to be GOAT, not complain about getting a harder draw.

DarthFed
01-17-2009, 10:45 AM
But the problem is it wouldn't have matted who they put in Federer's draw in the past 4.5 years. He made them look easy.

Pretty much sums everything up

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:48 AM
Hahaha, that's just too funny. Do you think that Gasquet even has a remote chance at beating Nadal in a best of 5 set match? Yeah, it's competitive, for the first set, after that it's complete destruction. Tell you what, if Gasquet beats Nadal in the AO this year you can come back here and say I told you so. Hell, if he even get's a set I'd be flabbergasted. Sure I saw the Olympics and I didn't really think the 1st set was all that competitive. Now the 2nd set, which was a tiebreak, was more competitive.
You are being completely disingenuous. Gasquet is a top player who has beaten Federer, Roddick and was very close to beating Murray at W last year. He may mentally go away most of the time but he has the game to create an upset on a given day. Do you actually watch his matches? Because I do and unlike you I know he took a set off Nadal almost every time they met and no it wasn't because Nadal was shanking, it's because Gasquet was playing amazing shots. Nadal will be the heavy favorite if they get to meet but Gasquet is a tough proposition. Your contempt of Richard's abilities is offensive and grossly misinformed.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:49 AM
But the problem is it wouldn't have matted who they put in Federer's draw in the past 4.5 years. He made them look easy.
Sometimes that was true but not always, he got his share of clownish draws too.

Ballinbob
01-17-2009, 10:50 AM
anyone know if del potro's playing in the AO? He's a good player and i'm surprised he hasnt even been mentioned. Surely he isnt to be taken lightly?

thejoe
01-17-2009, 10:52 AM
anyone know if del potro's playing in the AO? He's a good player and i'm surprised he hasnt even been mentioned. Surely he isnt to be taken lightly?

Yep, he is in Feds quarter of the draw. I get the impression he isn't a very popular player, which is why he isn't often talked about.

oneleggedcardinal
01-17-2009, 10:53 AM
You know, I am very suspiscious about that Niemenin match. I don't think Djokovic wanted to be in the final of a tourny the week before he defended a slam title. I have a feeling that he went into that match with Jarkko hmmm let's say he wasn't going to bust his rear to win it. I think Djokovic will be fine.

If he did that he would be stupid. All he had to do was beat Nieminen to get the #2 spot...why not do this and tank the final instead? Having said that, I think he'll be fine as well.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 10:55 AM
Sometimes that was true but not always, he got his share of clownish draws too.

For example?

Ballinbob
01-17-2009, 10:55 AM
Yep, he is in Feds quarter of the draw. I get the impression he isn't a very popular player, which is why he isn't often talked about.

He was playing great at the end of last year though. I hope he does good, he's one of my favorite players.

We'll just have to wait and see I guess

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:58 AM
I'd say Nadal has the toughest draw this time.I like Fed's draw,Safin can be dangerous early on but Fed certainly has enough experience playing against him and seems in good enough form and match tough to beat him without many problems(although one should never count Safin out but Fed knows that).Djokovic can be very tough in the semis but Fed has beaten him the last time they played on HC and let's face it,Djokovic is in worse form than Murray at the moment and has trouble finding his game right now.Although of course he'll be very motivated to defend his title here so I certainly wouldn't count him out,maybe he'll found last year's form as the tournament goes on.



Oh yes,those "evil" Fed worshippers who always whine about draws and make excuses,I'm sure no other group of fans in this forum displays similar behaviour.Fed is my favourite player but that makes me a Fed fan,not a worshipper.



Prime Fed strolled through most draws.If we're talking 2005-2006 Fed,he barely lost matches at all.



Mostly agree,but Safin can still be dangerous to face in early rounds.This is also presumably his last year on tour so he'll also be pretty motivated.



H2H doesn't always tell the whole story.True Fed beat Novak last time they met at USO but it was a closer match than the final with Murray and Djokovic beat Fed in straights last year at AO so he proved he can beat Fed in a major,not a lot of current players can say that.



Yes,Murray is current in-form/hot/high on confidence player and has a nice streak of wins against Fed at the moment so I agree.



Simon is not a good best of 5 match player,he never got past the 3d round in any slam in his whole career.So far he proved he can upset the big guns in best of 3,best of 5 matches are a whole different animal.I don't like his chances of upsetting any of of top 4 in slams.



Nope,don't expect that.Slams were always about beating the best of the best.



I think people forget that Nalbandian was pretty consistent in slams aside from the last 2 years,he reached the semis of all 4 slams and was pretty much a lock for quarters or semis during 2003-2006 period.Although I have to agree that last 2 years his performances in slams were plain bad,especially last year.

However,Nalbo started the year very well winning Sidney(don't remember him ever winning AO warm-up aside from this year)and seems to be in good form so I expect him to go deep here.I think he'll get past Roddick but lose to either Djokovic in quarters or Fed in semis.His H2H against Fed is good but he hasn't beaten Fed in a slam since 2003 so I'd like Fed's chances against him if they meet in semis but he always poses a danger to Federer.
Zagor, as always it's virtually impossible to disagree with anything you say. How did you manage to become such a wise person? (education or good genes :)?)

zagor
01-17-2009, 10:58 AM
He makes things harder than they have to be for himself. If he would just play closer to the baseline he'd make things alot easier for himself. I noticed he has been trying to come to the net more looking at his past few matches. Hopefully he'll keep that up.

Yeah,he stands too far behind baseline both during the rallies and when returning serve.I'd wish he stepped up and took the ball earlier so he wouldn't be forced to come up with amazing low percentage winners constantly to win a point(like against Nalbandian yesterday).I think Gasquet's good at the net,better than many players on tour,he can play all-court tennis so I hope to see that more from him in the future.

Sometimes that was true but not always, he got his share of clownish draws too.

Actually,almost always.During 2004-2007 period the only guy who could beat Fed with consistency is Nadal.

zagor
01-17-2009, 11:02 AM
Zagor, as always it's virtually impossible to disagree with anything you say. How did you manage to become such a wise person? (education or good genes :)?)

Lol,c'mon now I had my fair share of fanboy comments.There are a lot of people here who are way more knowledgable about tennis than me,who have been watching tennis much longer than I did.I'm not even that good of a player(my coach here in Serbia says I'm about 3.0)so I'm sure I cannot understand tennis as much as some guys here who played college tennis on a high level or are proffesional coaches.

seffina
01-17-2009, 11:03 AM
I don't think any of the top four should have any trouble until the quarters. Rafa's is maybe marginally harder because both Gonzalez and Hewitt have given trouble to him on hardcourts before. (He hadn't beaten either one on HC until last year when he beat both of them at the Olympics. He can do it again, but they're not great matchups for him.

Once there, if things go the way they are ranked: Murray(4) vs. Tsonga (5), Djokovic(3) vs. Roddick(7), Fed (2) vs. Del Potro(8 ), and Rafa(1) vs. Simon(6)

By ranking, Murray's quarter is the hardest. But I think the Roddick/Djokovic quarter has some great players that'll give both of them lots of trouble. Del Potro is good, but I don't think he's someone Fed would've a hard time beating. Simon (one of my favorite players) has beaten Rafa, but I think in a best of five, Rafa has an edge. I think the Roddick/Djokovic and Murray/Tsonga will be the most competitive if things work out that way.

So really, I think the draw is probably one of the best I've seen recently.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 11:33 AM
For example?
Wimbledon 2007: Gabashvili (who?), Del Potro (completely unknown in 2007, very, very young, no?), Safin (you know the guy who really really hated grass, who said it was for cows), Haas (for the first time he passed 3rd round at W- congrats mate!), Ferrero (too bad it wasn't clay, oh well), cushy cushy, no?

USO 2008: Gonzalez (Maximo!), Alves (??), Stepanek (3rd round best perf good for him), Andreev (hey has finally made it past the 2nd round woohoo) and Muller (no comment necessary).
I must say I like the USO one, would probably get the award for ultimate "free ticket to the semi" draw! But the W draw was savory too especially with Nadal battling it out with the big guys on the other side and Fed fans saying haughtily "it's Nadal 's fault, if he won his matches faster the way Roger does he wouldn't have to play every single day of the week". Now, looking at Fed's draw while reading this sentence tends to always put a smile on my face...

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 11:36 AM
Lol,c'mon now I had my fair share of fanboy comments.There are a lot of people here who are way more knowledgable about tennis than me,who have been watching tennis much longer than I did.I'm not even that good of a player(my coach here in Serbia says I'm about 3.0)so I'm sure I cannot understand tennis as much as some guys here who played college tennis on a high level or are proffesional coaches.
Aaaaah don't be modest on top or I'm gonna start liking you as much as Rafa (and you know what that does to me right ;-)?)

jmverdugo
01-17-2009, 11:39 AM
While i read trough this thread I just cant stop to wonder, (in general) does it hurt to have the head up the pros @ss? I mean take it out for a breath and some sun light for a while ... it will give some people some perspective.

TennezSport
01-17-2009, 11:47 AM
How is hard draws related to being #1?

It's not directly, it's just when you are #1 you are expected to take on all comers. It's called luck of the draw(LOTD) and the target is on your back.

Fed got more than his share of cushy draws while he was #1. I certainly expect Rafa to to get a few of those too!

Rafa already has on several occasions over the years, nothing new except the pressure is squarely on his shoulders now (whether he says so or not) as the #1.

Back when, Fed's fans argument was "it's normal Fed gets those draws, that's the privilege of being #1, he worked very hard to get into a position to get these draws , he deserves them". Great, I'm waiting for the opportunity to use that wonderful logic about Rafa.

Did you miss last years AO??? or Wimbly 2006 or...........
Fed never earned any easy or hard draws it's just LOTD. Believe it or not, I am not picking on Rafa but this time I believe the draw is finally balanced IMHO. Danger on both sides and if he wants to prove he is a HC player he has to get through a tough draw at #1 like Fed so many time before him; simple as that.

Cheers, TennezSport :cool:

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 11:52 AM
It's not directly, it's just when you are #1 you are expected to take on all comers. It's called luck of the draw(LOTD) and the target is on your back.



Rafa already has on several occasions over the years, nothing new except the pressure is squarely on his shoulders now (whether he says so or not) as the #1.



Did you miss last years AO??? or Wimbly 2006 or...........
Fed never earned any easy or hard draws it's just LOTD. Believe it or not, I am not picking on Rafa but this time I believe the draw is finally balanced IMHO. Danger on both sides and if he wants to prove he is a HC player he has to get through a tough draw at #1 like Fed so many time before him; simple as that.

Cheers, TennezSport :cool:
I agree that noone has a cupcake draw this time but I wouldn't go so far as to say it's evenly balanced. At least nobody has a free pass and that's good news.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 11:58 AM
Here are some of the picks from the people at tennis.com, interesting to read it through I thought:

http://tennis.com/tournaments/2009/australianopen/australianopen.aspx?id=155008

JohnS
01-17-2009, 11:58 AM
Just bc of this thread, I hope all 4 players lose first round and have Vince Spadia win the AO. I would laugh so hard. He would be rapping during his final speech. That would be hilarious.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 11:59 AM
It is 5 for Federer, 3 for Murray, 1 for Nadal, and 1 for Djoker.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 12:05 PM
Just bc of this thread, I hope all 4 players lose first round and have Vince Spadia win the AO. I would laugh so hard. He would be rapping during his final speech. That would be hilarious.

Hahaha, I would looooooooove to see that. Send all 4 packing and this board would get mysteriously quite.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 12:06 PM
It is 5 for Federer, 3 for Murray, 1 for Nadal, and 1 for Djoker.
Personally I would rather go with the professional betting places. No offense but when money is involved people tend to listen less to their emotions and more to their brain.
Nothing shocking about tennis.com's predictions though (especially considering the draw and recent results.)

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 12:11 PM
Personally I would rather go with the professional betting places. No offense but when money is involved people tend to listen less to their emotions and more to their brain.
Nothing shocking about tennis.com's predictions though (especially considering the draw and recent results.)

You mean by betting odds? Odds have 3.50 for the favorite as Federer to win it all. Murray 3.75, Nadal 4.75 and Djoker at 7.00. Thats at partybets. By the way, what site has like the best odds for tennis? Or are they all pretty much the same?

ESP#1
01-17-2009, 12:13 PM
Djoko is looking at Nalby in the quarters, if Nablys is catches fire we could be looking at an upset

TennezSport
01-17-2009, 12:14 PM
Just bc of this thread, I hope all 4 players lose first round and have Vince Spadia win the AO. I would laugh so hard. He would be rapping during his final speech. That would be hilarious.

That one made me laugh already. I am laughing with you :D

Cheers, TennezSport :cool:

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:15 PM
I really don't understand some posters who talk about the strength of Fed's draw. Every independent article I have read until now, and I mean in the media, not on a fanboyish tennis forum, agrees Nadal has an incredibly tough draw with Murray on his side and also Tsonga and Monfils, both of whom beat him on HC.

While Fed has a tentative Safin, and a not so in shape Djoko in his half. Surely he would have signed for that.

Nadal has the toughest draw, Murray the easiest.

Without a doubt!

edberg505
01-17-2009, 12:19 PM
Wimbledon 2007: Gabashvili (who?), Del Potro (completely unknown in 2007, very, very young, no?), Safin (you know the guy who really really hated grass, who said it was for cows), Haas (for the first time he passed 3rd round at W- congrats mate!), Ferrero (too bad it wasn't clay, oh well), cushy cushy, no?

USO 2008: Gonzalez (Maximo!), Alves (??), Stepanek (3rd round best perf good for him), Andreev (hey has finally made it past the 2nd round woohoo) and Muller (no comment necessary).
I must say I like the USO one, would probably get the award for ultimate "free ticket to the semi" draw! But the W draw was savory too especially with Nadal battling it out with the big guys on the other side and Fed fans saying haughtily "it's Nadal 's fault, if he won his matches faster the way Roger does he wouldn't have to play every single day of the week". Now, looking at Fed's draw while reading this sentence tends to always put a smile on my face...

First of all you can take any Wimby draw over the past 5 years and it won't even matter. The guy is a 5 time Wimby champ for a reason. Have a look at his 2006 draw and look at how he navigated through that one. The only way you can make a tougher draw for him at Wimby is to make him play these guys:

1st = Nadal
2nd = Ivanisevic
4th = Becker
quarters = Laver
Semis = Borg
Final = Sampras

And pretty much the same goes for the US Open. I love how you forgot to put Djokovic in this year's 2008 draw. I guess it doesn't matter because he waxed him too.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 12:20 PM
You mean by betting odds? Odds have 3.50 for the favorite as Federer to win it all. Murray 3.75, Nadal 4.75 and Djoker at 7.00. Thats at partybets. By the way, what site has like the best odds for tennis? Or are they all pretty much the same?
Have you tried betfair?

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:21 PM
Safin is past his prime but somehow Hewitt isn't. Makes so much sense.

Safin is so inconsistent he's considering retiring at the end of the year. He's talented, but seems to be a bit beaten down. Hewitt has always been one of the fiercest competitors on the tour. He's coming back from surgery, playing on his home turf, wants to win his native slam. There's no comparison between him and the mercurial Marat. They are both maybe past their primes, but Hewitt always plays for pride and gifts us with heroic efforts, even if he fails.

Frankauc
01-17-2009, 12:22 PM
its nadal because the best player at the moment (murray) is on his side

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:23 PM
Oh you forgot to throw in the world class Serra! I guess the AO must really like seeing Serra get his skull beat in as he beat Serra like a rented mule there last year. Nadal blitzed both Hewitt and Gonzalez at the Olympics. And Gasquet, surely you can't be serious Gasquet just packs up his gear and is ready to go after the first hard fought set which he inevitably loses. As for Karlovic and Simon, I'd be shocked if they even made past the 3rd round.

Are you serious? You don't think Simon poses a threat?

edberg505
01-17-2009, 12:23 PM
Safin is so inconsistent he's considering retiring at the end of the year. He's talented, but seems to be a bit beaten down. Hewitt has always been one of the fiercest competitors on the tour. He's coming back from surgery, playing on his home turf, wants to win his native slam. There's no comparison between him and the mercurial Marat. They are both maybe past their primes, but Hewitt always plays for pride and gifts us with heroic efforts, even if he fails.

Just like when Blake beat him like a rented mule last week.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 12:25 PM
Are you serious? You don't think Simon poses a threat?

I'm serious as untreated syphilis. So, tell me, how far has Simon made it in any of the previous slams?

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:25 PM
That is not at all what I said. I said AO is very special for Hewitt and lately Hewitt has been swinging -and not faring bad I must say- in the quarter-finals of an ATP tournament whereas Safin, remind me where Safin has been those last few weeks... on a tennis court? No?......Ah yes I remember now! In some bar brawl! Awesome preparation for AO if he intends to hit the ball with his fist or knock out the opponent before the end of the match...

Funny post!

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 12:27 PM
First of all you can take any Wimby draw over the past 5 years and it won't even matter. The guy is a 5 time Wimby champ for a reason. Have a look at his 2006 draw and look at how he navigated through that one. The only way you can make a tougher draw for him at Wimby is to make him play these guys:

1st = Nadal
2nd = Ivanisevic
4th = Becker
quarters = Laver
Semis = Borg
Final = Sampras

And pretty much the same goes for the US Open. I love how you forgot to put Djokovic in this year's 2008 draw. I guess it doesn't matter because he waxed him too.
I didn't put Djoko because I was analyzing quarters (like we're doing now for AO), that's why I said free pass to the semis (not final). I am not saying that Federer wouldn't have won anyway but there is such a thing as a cupcake draw, it happens (at least on paper!)

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 12:29 PM
Safin is so inconsistent he's considering retiring at the end of the year. He's talented, but seems to be a bit beaten down. Hewitt has always been one of the fiercest competitors on the tour. He's coming back from surgery, playing on his home turf, wants to win his native slam. There's no comparison between him and the mercurial Marat. They are both maybe past their primes, but Hewitt always plays for pride and gifts us with heroic efforts, even if he fails.
Very well put.

Alexio92
01-17-2009, 12:30 PM
The surprise finalist is usually someone who has done ok the previous year but either due to injury or inconsistancy that means they are not ranked so high but get in form at the AO.
Tipsarevic and Cilic are my picks.

On topic : Probably Djokovic

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:33 PM
How is hard draws related to being #1? Fed got more than his share of cushy draws while he was #1. I certainly expect Rafa to to get a few of those too! Back when, Fed's fans argument was "it's normal Fed gets those draws, that's the privilege of being #1, he worked very hard to get into a position to get these draws , he deserves them". Great, I'm waiting for the opportunity to use that wonderful logic about Rafa.

Spot on! I remember them saying that all the time.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 12:34 PM
Have you tried betfair?

Wow thanks, they have better odds. Federer at 3.7, Murray at 4, Nadal at 5.5, Djoker at 9.2

Will register there eventually, whenever my credit card arrives :(.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 12:36 PM
I'm serious as untreated syphilis. So, tell me, how far has Simon made it in any of the previous slams?
But Simon is not 30 years old, he just turned 24 and he had his best results in the last 6 months. He's an "in form" player who's been playing his best tennis recently (he won Indianapolis and made the final of Madrid master). IMO momentum is as dangerous as experience in slams can be (especially in a quarter, in a final, inexperience can be lethal)

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 12:39 PM
Wow thanks, they have better odds. Federer at 3.7, Murray at 4, Nadal at 5.5, Djoker at 9.2

Will register there eventually, whenever my credit card arrives :(.
Good luck with it. Hope you win something!

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:44 PM
Wimbledon 2007: Gabashvili (who?), Del Potro (completely unknown in 2007, very, very young, no?), Safin (you know the guy who really really hated grass, who said it was for cows), Haas (for the first time he passed 3rd round at W- congrats mate!), Ferrero (too bad it wasn't clay, oh well), cushy cushy, no?

USO 2008: Gonzalez (Maximo!), Alves (??), Stepanek (3rd round best perf good for him), Andreev (hey has finally made it past the 2nd round woohoo) and Muller (no comment necessary).
I must say I like the USO one, would probably get the award for ultimate "free ticket to the semi" draw! But the W draw was savory too especially with Nadal battling it out with the big guys on the other side and Fed fans saying haughtily "it's Nadal 's fault, if he won his matches faster the way Roger does he wouldn't have to play every single day of the week". Now, looking at Fed's draw while reading this sentence tends to always put a smile on my face...

You're on fire! 100% correct!

Jackie T. Stephens
01-17-2009, 12:45 PM
Federer has the toughest, look at who he plays next..

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:52 PM
Just like when Blake beat him like a rented mule last week.

Be fair. He just came off of hip surgery and had how many matches under his belt? No, I don't think that's a fair conclusion to come to. I'm sure he'll be better prepared going into a slam. Can't say the same for Blake though!

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 12:57 PM
I'm serious as untreated syphilis. So, tell me, how far has Simon made it in any of the previous slams?

So when did Simon begin his breakthrough? This summer right? Around the same time Murray started coming good. Since then he's beaten Fed twice, and Nadal once in a five-setter. He's a threat, whether you believe it or not! I think 2009 will prove it.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 01:01 PM
So when did Simon begin his breakthrough? This summer right? Around the same time Murray started coming good. Since then he's beaten Fed twice, and Nadal once in a five-setter. He's a threat, whether you believe it or not! I think 2009 will prove it.
I think the Nadal one was a 3 setter (in Madrid). Still I agree, Simon is a threat to any player right now.

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 01:09 PM
I think the Nadal one was a 3 setter (in Madrid). Still I agree, Simon is a threat to any player right now.

Glad to be wrong! I like Simon, and like you, I consider him a threat to many. Fed and Nadal namely. He seems to have trouble with Murray, and I'm not sure about Djokovic!

Ocean Drive
01-17-2009, 01:19 PM
Moya was beaten last week by Dewarman, 2nd round of Chennai ( before that he lost to Petzchner), Safin has lost in first or second round of every single tournament he's played in the last months (except Moscow). You guys totally crack me up. "My lord, I beseech you to grant Fed as much skills and talent as Dewarman, just for this once, pleaaaaaase". I rest my case :rolleyes:

get a life

welcome2petrkordaland
01-17-2009, 01:26 PM
Glad to be wrong! I like Simon, and like you, I consider him a threat to many. Fed and Nadal namely. He seems to have trouble with Murray, and I'm not sure about Djokovic!

to me, lately, on hard courts nadal and fed have trouble hurting simon, which is why giles is 3 for 3 against them on hard courts. simon's supermobile, superconsisent, and loves to counter. fed and nadal (oddly enough considering nadal's "known" as more of a grinder) eventually lose patience and miss. whether is not simon can do this in a 5-setter with his 7th grade girlish figure remains to be seen.

this impenetrable defense of simon is very much like what murray does (has done) to fed and nadal. the difference with murray is that he can rope-a-dope like simon but can also bring game; his slice is something else simon doesn't have. murray is the CLEAR favorite IMO.

the "never won a grandslam" doubters make me laugh.

djokovic was quite simply overrated last year after he beat an ailing, immobile federer.

sorry i got off topic. sue me.

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 01:49 PM
to me, lately, on hard courts nadal and fed have trouble hurting simon, which is why giles is 3 for 3 against them on hard courts. simon's supermobile, superconsisent, and loves to counter. fed and nadal (oddly enough considering nadal's "known" as more of a grinder) eventually lose patience and miss. whether is not simon can do this in a 5-setter with his 7th grade girlish figure remains to be seen.

this impenetrable defense of simon is very much like what murray does (has done) to fed and nadal. the difference with murray is that he can rope-a-dope like simon but can also bring game; his slice is something else simon doesn't have. murray is the CLEAR favorite IMO.

the "never won a grandslam" doubters make me laugh.

djokovic was quite simply overrated last year after he beat an ailing, immobile federer.

sorry i got off topic. sue me.

I think it's a great post. Very logical and well thought out!

edberg505
01-17-2009, 02:01 PM
Be fair. He just came off of hip surgery and had how many matches under his belt? No, I don't think that's a fair conclusion to come to. I'm sure he'll be better prepared going into a slam. Can't say the same for Blake though!

That match was last week. The AO is Monday, somehow I don't think he'll become a huge threat within a 1 week. You can't have it both ways. You can't say he'll be a threat at the AO and then turn around and say the hip surgery is the reason he got trashed by Blake last week. But you're right I guess we'll see. But don't bet your life savings on Hewitt doing any damage.

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 02:09 PM
That match was last week. The AO is Monday, somehow I don't think he'll become a huge threat within a 1 week. You can't have it both ways. You can't say he'll be a threat at the AO and then turn around and say the hip surgery is the reason he got trashed by Blake last week. But you're right I guess we'll see. But don't bet your life savings on Hewitt doing any damage.

I didn't say Hewitt was a threat to do anything. I said Hewitt gets the nod from me over Marat because of his fierce competitive spirit. He did have hip surgery. He doesn't have match toughness. But, he usually brings it in the slams. I'm not trying to twist anything. These are the statements I made.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 02:13 PM
So when did Simon begin his breakthrough? This summer right? Around the same time Murray started coming good. Since then he's beaten Fed twice, and Nadal once in a five-setter. He's a threat, whether you believe it or not! I think 2009 will prove it.

Murray has been good for a while now. He was seeded 9th in last Aussie Open. I'm not sold on him when it comes to him playing 5 setters. I actually have Ancic beating him in the 3rd round and I won't be the least bit surprised if that happens.

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 02:16 PM
Murray has been good for a while now. He was seeded 9th in last Aussie Open. I'm not sold on him when it comes to him playing 5 setters. I actually have Ancic beating him in the 3rd round and I won't be the least bit surprised if that happens.

Me either (I doubt Ancic though who to me is not a great player). But there's something troubling about Murray. To me, although he has a good h2h against Fed, he always looks extremely nervous when playing him. He can be winning easily and out of the blue go off the bubble for no reason. I'm not sold on Murray quite yet. Does he have the talent? Yes. Does he have the heart? I'm not sure.

edberg505
01-17-2009, 02:23 PM
Me either (I doubt Ancic though who to me is not a great player). But there's something troubling about Murray. To me, although he has a good h2h against Fed, he always looks extremely nervous when playing him. He can be winning easily and out of the blue go off the bubble for no reason. I'm not sold on Murray quite yet. Does he have the talent? Yes. Does he have the heart? I'm not sure.

Actually I was talking about Ancic vs. Simon. We'll see about Murray. I had Murray going to the semis at last year's AO. People forget he was dangerously close to losing to Melzer at the US Open. If he can make it past the early rounds he'll be hard to stop.

J-man
01-17-2009, 02:25 PM
I gotta go with Nadal (looking at draw right now). But expect to him to get through the early stages.

Saw Dent was playing. He's near Djokovic. Been years since he's been playing on the TV

JankovicFan
01-17-2009, 02:41 PM
I think Tsonga retired in Sydney so as not to have to skip the AO. His ranking would plummet, I think he will play by hook or by crook, he'll be there.


I'll bet the oddsmakers are watching that situation for any indication of Tsonga's injury status taking him out. If he sees little chance of defending, why make the injuries worse and the recovery longer, possibly involving surgery? Other players will be shedding undefended points too, either now or later. I know Tsonga has a lot at stake, but what can you do, if the legs aren't there?

I expect to see him retire after a match or two, before he meets Murray, assuming Gulbis doesn't decide to live up to the hype from his fans. They could meet in the QF, the way I read the draw. Gulbis has his own problems with Blake and Andreev, but I think he has a shot against guys on the decline or consistently vulnerable to some breakthrough character. But I ramble...

Turning Pro
01-17-2009, 08:53 PM
I didn't say Hewitt was a threat to do anything. I said Hewitt gets the nod from me over Marat because of his fierce competitive spirit. He did have hip surgery. He doesn't have match toughness. But, he usually brings it in the slams. I'm not trying to twist anything. These are the statements I made.

Exactly. Hewitt's consistently better than Safin at slams believe it or not. Much better in fact just solely based on the 04-05 run where he lost to the eventual champion for like 7-8 slams in a row. However, if Safin does bring his A-game to the table, then he's still a massive threat out of nowhere (08 Wimby).

davydenko_fan
01-17-2009, 09:12 PM
OMG MURRAY HAS THE MOST CUPCAKE, READY EASY BAKE OVEN, CAKEWALK, POWDER PUFF, CREAM CAKE DRAW EVER! his most intimidating match up until the qtrs is none other than the amazing and unstoppable....jurgen melzer....SERIOUSLY!? cmon i can beat jurgen melzer LMAO

davydenko_fan
01-17-2009, 09:17 PM
djokovic draw is also soft as cotton now that looking at the draw again. even though his draw is easy, i dont see him winning it again though. this new racket thing seems to be an excuse he is clinging to and i dont think he will be used to it by this tournament. maybe by the middle of 09, but certainly not now.

TheTruth
01-17-2009, 09:57 PM
Exactly. Hewitt's consitently better than Safin at slams believe it or not. Much better in fact just solely based on the 04-05 run where he lost to the eventual champion for like 7-8 slams in a row. However, if Safin does bring his A-gmae ot the table, then he's still a massive threat out of nowhere (08 Wimby).

All true! No argument from me!