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View Full Version : Why does the AO always produce one surprise finalist?


svijk
01-17-2009, 09:43 AM
The AO has a history of having one 'out of the blue ' finalist in recent times. Tsonga, Gonzo, Baghdatis, Clement surely became more famous after their improbable runs.It may have something to do with the surface, time of year, weather??? Any more theories?

This year the draw has 2 solid players on either sides but you never know if history will repeat itself. Whose AO will it be this time....Del Potro, Simon , Nalbandian???

thejoe
01-17-2009, 09:49 AM
The Aussie crowd love getting behind an underdog. Thats what I think anyway. They gave Tsonga ridiculous support last year.

matchmaker
01-17-2009, 10:06 AM
Nalby would not be so much of a surprise finalist, he has already played the Wimbledon final.

Maybe a Monfils would make a good surprise finalist.

R_Federer
01-17-2009, 10:24 AM
You guys are not thinking too hard in giving the guesses on the surprise. Usually it is someone out of the blue. Tsonga, Del Potro, Simon are already known of. Usually it is someone completely unknown.

dantespark33
01-17-2009, 10:26 AM
nishikori would be pretty out of the blue

Alexio92
01-17-2009, 10:31 AM
Oscar Hernandez or Janko Tipsarevic whoever wins the first round match.

jmverdugo
01-17-2009, 10:33 AM
Davydenko in the final would be and extreme surprise, it could be even spooky! ;)

jamesblakefan#1
01-17-2009, 10:34 AM
Davydenko in the final would be and extreme surprise, it could be even spooky! ;)

too bad he's hurt tho.

veroniquem
01-17-2009, 10:48 AM
nishikori would be pretty out of the blue
If you're already thinking about him, he wouldn't be out of the blue! Out of the blue means you would never quote his name before the tournament starts... IMO there are more surprises at AO because players are less prepared there than at other tournaments (not much time to get ready for it).

thejoe
01-17-2009, 10:50 AM
If you're already thinking about him, he wouldn't be out of the blue! Out of the blue means you would never quote his name before the tournament starts... IMO there are more surprises at AO because players are less prepared there than at other tournaments (not much time to get ready for it).

Thats a pretty good point. I'd never thought of that.

J-man
01-17-2009, 10:52 AM
Its the first GS of the year everyone comes rested and excited and a clean slate. The crowd always gets behind the underdog, and the player can feed off of this. Its a great atmosphere.

Breaker
01-17-2009, 11:10 AM
This year it will be the Gooch!

If by some miracle he gets by Hewitt in the quarters :)

alienhamster
01-17-2009, 11:35 AM
Its the first GS of the year everyone comes rested and excited and a clean slate. The crowd always gets behind the underdog, and the player can feed off of this. Its a great atmosphere. I do think the fact that it's the first GS is a factor, but it has more to do with the lack of preparedness/rhythm in some of the top players that allows for some of the "streaky" players to break through them and get to the finals. The rest helps, for sure, but most players are coming in only having played 1 or 0 tournaments on similar surfaces or in similar climates in the weeks preceding the open.

S H O W S T O P P E R !
01-17-2009, 11:44 AM
Nalby would not be so much of a surprise finalist, he has already played the Wimbledon final.

Maybe a Monfils would make a good surprise finalist.

Yeah, I'm putting money on Monfils to make some noise.

380pistol
01-17-2009, 11:50 AM
I don't know why, but keep an eye on Marin Cilic.

Ocean Drive
01-17-2009, 12:22 PM
too bad he's hurt tho.

hes injured

edmondsm
01-17-2009, 12:52 PM
Simple. The Australian Open happens right after the off-season and there is no telling who is going to come out of the lay-off on fire. As the season progresses the stronger players start to hit their stride.

vbranis
01-17-2009, 01:00 PM
This year might be Gulbis.

thejoe
01-17-2009, 01:03 PM
This year might be Gulbis.

That isn't a bad shout.

oneguy21
01-17-2009, 01:05 PM
This year might be Gulbis.

I 2nd that. His hitting can be ridiculously hard.

kelz
01-18-2009, 02:07 AM
You guys are not thinking too hard in giving the guesses on the surprise. Usually it is someone out of the blue. Tsonga, Del Potro, Simon are already known of. Usually it is someone completely unknown.

Those are some goals.

Winners or Errors
01-18-2009, 06:12 AM
This year might be Gulbis.

After watching him play last year, I'm rooting for him. Unfortunately, since he can't string together more than 1.5 sets of good tennis against the best players, I expect disappointment. Who knows? Perhaps he's matured in the off-season.

Sentinel
01-18-2009, 06:41 AM
If you're already thinking about him, he wouldn't be out of the blue! Out of the blue means you would never quote his name before the tournament starts... IMO there are more surprises at AO because players are less prepared there than at other tournaments (not much time to get ready for it).

Does less prepared suggest more talent ?

Does a fast court have any bearing on someone being able to pull an upset - although we are talking about reaching all the way to a final.

btw, this is NOT a thread on who the surprise finalist will be - thats another thread -- this is WHY ?

raiden031
01-18-2009, 06:48 AM
In the thread about moving the AO to februrary, Nadal is quoted in the article to say that the AO is most unpredictable because they are not prepared for it like the other slams. While Nadal (and perhaps Fed) think this is bad for the AO, I think it is good. Every slam should have something unique about it to make it more interesting. It would be boring if every slam had the same set of players challenging for the championship.

Teamtomo
01-18-2009, 06:57 AM
Gulbis or Cilic.

musicalmedic81
01-18-2009, 07:33 AM
Ok, if we're talking true out of the blue finalists, how bout the likes of: Potito Starace or Ivo Minar. Or, we can get real crazy with guys like Michael Berrer, Florian Mayer, and of course, Bjorn Phau!


LOL imagine that, 2009 AO final M. Berrer def. R. Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0

Ocean Drive
01-18-2009, 08:59 AM
Since 2000, their has always been a surprise finalist pretty much, except Hewitt in 05, clement, johansson (winning), schuettler, safin (coming back from injury), baghdatis, gonzalez, tsonga...........i would like to see the trend continue, but i have my doubts this time round