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View Full Version : Will Murray overtake the #2 ranking from Fed by years end?


GameSampras
04-05-2009, 06:08 PM
What do u guys think? Will Murray be able to pick that number 2 spot from Fed before the year is up. Hes right there with Djoker and I think will snatch it from him. Murray needs to gain some ground on clay. Not sure how that will play out but he can really gain some ground during grass and hardcourt season towards the middle to end of the year.

coyfish
04-05-2009, 06:16 PM
If he keeps his game up. Fed and Djok haven't been playing well. Hopefully there will be more competition in the next tourny. Lots of bad playing at the sony. Verdasco should be giving top guys some trouble.

Lsmkenpo
04-05-2009, 06:23 PM
Federer has a nearly 3000 pt lead on Murray, no chance at all.

tudwell
04-05-2009, 06:40 PM
What happened to 3? Was it removed from the number line?

clayman2000
04-05-2009, 07:00 PM
Federer has a nearly 3000 pt lead on Murray, no chance at all.

When will people learn that point leads mean nothing at the end of the year. The title says will Murray pass Federer by the end of the year. By the end of the year points from last year will mean nothing. Murray should pass Djokovic soon (i estimate by Wimbledon) and then Federer will loose points at the Olympics, and will have USO to defend.

I say its dooable

Joseph L. Barrow
04-05-2009, 07:12 PM
Murray has been the second best hardcourt player so far this season, but we'll have to wait and see how much he can improve on his clay results. If Roger makes the finals of the clay Masters tourneys and the French Open again, while Murray goes out in the early to middle rounds, it will be hard for Murray to surpass him without actually coming up with a Slam- Wimbledon being very a very unlikely goal for him this year, but he should be in with a big chance at the US Open.

rubberduckies
04-05-2009, 07:19 PM
Roger is returning to his best surface, clay, where he has been most consistent since 2006.

Clay benefits Roger's speed and backhand retrieving skills.

Clay will neutralize Murray's serve and doesn't bode well for his relatively flat groundstrokes.

clayman2000
04-05-2009, 07:23 PM
Roger is returning to his best surface, clay, where he has been most consistent since 2006.

Clay benefits Roger's speed and backhand retrieving skills.

Clay will neutralize Murray's serve and doesn't bode well for his relatively flat groundstrokes.

All true, but clay also:

benefits Murray's movement, and allows him to retrieve more balls

neutralize Federers serve which is a shot he relies a lot on now, more so than ever before

But your right about clay being Federer's most consistent surface

tudwell
04-05-2009, 07:28 PM
Not true. Grass is his most consistent surface.

[d]ragon
04-05-2009, 07:30 PM
I think if he keeps up his playing level, he definitely could.

I think Murray will do better than Federer on clay because Murray would benefit from the slower surface so his defensive and retrieving ability will get a little boost from it.

I think Federer won't do too well on clay because of the longer points. His backcourt game hasn't been too good lately. Also the high bouncing nature of the courts won't help his backhand at all.

I still think Nadal will pretty much dominate the clay season but we'll have to wait and see.

T1000
04-05-2009, 07:38 PM
No, Federer is to far ahead at this point. Murray can make up some points this year and hope to do better than Federer at next years AO

SaintClaires
04-05-2009, 08:26 PM
Hmmm.....Federer has to defend the French Open and Wimbledon finalist points, and the US Open title.


He has quite a lot of points to defend.....This year, I feel he may be upset earlier at one of these grand slams.

Bud
04-05-2009, 08:35 PM
Hmmm.....Federer has to defend the French Open and Wimbledon finalist points, and the US Open title.


He has quite a lot of points to defend.....This year, I feel he may be upset earlier at one of these grand slams.

I agree. I can see him making an earlier exit at the French (QF or SF). I think he'll make at least the SF at Wimbledon.

I can definitely see Murray as #2 by 2009... if he continues playing well and fixes the mental lapses he suffers from when he's ahead.

Murray should be knocking some of these guys out in two sets. Instead, he takes his foot off the accelerator and allows them back into the match.

Max G.
04-05-2009, 10:04 PM
He'll have to improve his play in Grand Slams though. Outside of a GS, I can certainly agree, but Federer's had an extra gear for the Slams. Hence his victory at the US Open, and his final at the AO when Murray lost to an inspired verdasco... in the Slams, Federer has, so far, been a lot less vulnerable. And unless that changes, he'll stay ahead.

batz
04-06-2009, 02:12 AM
Federer has a nearly 3000 pt lead on Murray, no chance at all.

I have no idea where you're getting 'nearly 3000 points' from.

As of this morning, Roger is 2180 points in front of Murray, but that's a bit of a skewed picture, as Roger isn't playing Monte Carlo and will lose a juicy 700 points there, making the 'virtual gap' 1480. If Murray plays to his seeding @ MC then the gap is down to 1270, with Murray having only 370 points to defend in the rest of the clay season compared to Roger's 2700.

Still think there's no chance at all?

caulcano
04-06-2009, 05:09 AM
What do u guys think? Will Murray be able to pick that number 2 spot from Fed before the year is up. Hes right there with Djoker and I think will snatch it from him. Murray needs to gain some ground on clay. Not sure how that will play out but he can really gain some ground during grass and hardcourt season towards the middle to end of the year.

I think Murray will be #2 at the end of the year. Federer has a lot of ranking pts to defend in the next few months and with the way he's playing, I fear he won't make the FO or Wimbledon final.

P_Agony
04-06-2009, 05:15 AM
Roger is returning to his best surface, clay, where he has been most consistent since 2006.

Clay benefits Roger's speed and backhand retrieving skills.

Clay will neutralize Murray's serve and doesn't bode well for his relatively flat groundstrokes.

I disagree, I think neither grass and clay are Federer's best surface. IMO hard courts are Fed's best surface, but for some reason he couldn't find his game on hard courts in the past year. Still, dominating for many years the US Open, AO, and the TMC, not to mention many MS titles like IW,Miami, and Cincy, is a proof that at his best, Federer is almost unbeatable on hard courts.

As for clay, last year at RG 08, even before the final, Fed was playing badly. It was still enough to get to the final, because he is the most talented player on earth, but still, he just didn't perform very well the whole tourny, and the outcome with Nadal was predictable.

gj011
04-06-2009, 08:19 AM
I disagree, I think neither grass and clay are Federer's best surface. IMO hard courts are Fed's best surface, but for some reason he couldn't find his game on hard courts in the past year. Still, dominating for many years the US Open, AO, and the TMC, not to mention many MS titles like IW,Miami, and Cincy, is a proof that at his best, Federer is almost unbeatable on hard courts.

As for clay, last year at RG 08, even before the final, Fed was playing badly. It was still enough to get to the final, because he is the most talented player on earth, but still, he just didn't perform very well the whole tourny, and the outcome with Nadal was predictable.

Are you serious. Federer unbeatable on HC? :shock: Where have you been for the last year and a half. We are not in 2006 any more.

Grass is Federer`s best surface.

080825
04-06-2009, 08:45 AM
Agree. If we take off the points on clay for both Roger and Andy, Roger has 7970 left and Andy 8320. It is almost even. Thus, Andy will take over No.2 spot, if he can collect as many points as Roger in the coming clay season, he will be the No.2. However, it will be tough because Roger has the advantage to avoid meeting with Rafa before finals. So, Andy needs some luck to be drawn to the same half of Roger. If Andy can improve his game on clay and meet with Roger in semi, we will get very exciting matches to watch. It will be like the matches played between Novak and Rafa last year. Whoever wins the duel will carry the momentum into the rest of the season.
I have no idea where you're getting 'nearly 3000 points' from.

As of this morning, Roger is 2180 points in front of Murray, but that's a bit of a skewed picture, as Roger isn't playing Monte Carlo and will lose a juicy 700 points there, making the 'virtual gap' 1480. If Murray plays to his seeding @ MC then the gap is down to 1270, with Murray having only 370 points to defend in the rest of the clay season compared to Roger's 2700.

Still think there's no chance at all?

080825
04-06-2009, 08:57 AM
Agree. As for Wimbledon, Roger still has his best shot to tie Pete's record there because he will be seeded as No.2, no matter what happens in the clay season. If he fails to do that, his ranking will most likely drop to No.3 before US open. Right now, Roger has less problem with Novak. If both Rafa and Andy play to their ranking, it will be a daunting task for Roger to beat them back to back.
I agree. I can see him making an earlier exit at the French (QF or SF). I think he'll make at least the SF at Wimbledon.

I can definitely see Murray as #2 by 2009... if he continues playing well and fixes the mental lapses he suffers from when he's ahead.

Murray should be knocking some of these guys out in two sets. Instead, he takes his foot off the accelerator and allows them back into the match.

oneguy21
04-06-2009, 08:59 AM
Are you serious. Federer unbeatable on HC? :shock: Where have you been for the last year and a half. We are not in 2006 any more.

Grass is Federer`s best surface.

He's saying at his best, Federer is unbeatable on hardcourts. And of course, he's not at his best currently.

robin7
04-06-2009, 09:15 AM
Yes. By US Open...

skiracer55
04-06-2009, 09:18 AM
Roger is returning to his best surface, clay, where he has been most consistent since 2006.

Clay benefits Roger's speed and backhand retrieving skills.

Clay will neutralize Murray's serve and doesn't bode well for his relatively flat groundstrokes.


His best surface? How many FOs has he won lately?

skiracer55
04-06-2009, 09:22 AM
...Andy's likely to be #1 by year's end, especially after the way he played last weekend. Everybody thinks he's nothing on clay; I dunno. Given his fitness and the variety in his game, I think he's got a decent shot at the French. And he's got a very good shot at both Wimby and the US Open...

Hope
04-06-2009, 11:25 AM
I recall this time last year there was an uproar about Djokovic being the best player on earth. Where is he now? And Nadal was struglling to hold on to No2. Now where is everybody? The only constant in men's tennis is Roger Federer. I expect Roger to reclaim No 1. As for Murray, he's doing well now, but he'll likely fade (just like Djokovic) before the French. His game will take too much out of him on clay.

rubberduckies
04-06-2009, 11:35 AM
His best surface? How many FOs has he won lately?

He can't win the French because that's where Nadal, a far superior player, is also at his best.
He won on the others because Nadal hadn't mastered those surfaces yet.

cknobman
04-06-2009, 11:48 AM
If Fed doesn't shape up then yes its a very good possibility.

veroniquem
04-06-2009, 03:32 PM
To me he's already #2 on hard courts. If he does well on other surfaces, he can certainly become the actual #2 at the end of the year, but his abilities on clay are still a question mark at this point.

jimbo333
04-06-2009, 09:56 PM
If Murray can stay fit and well (which lets face it he hasn't done consistently yet in his career), then he really should not be underrated. He should do well on clay this year:)

6rump
04-06-2009, 10:50 PM
why not? if murray keep playing like this, he can finish top 3, even surpass Federer......

WayneCM
04-07-2009, 02:51 AM
I hope not, i really don't like Murray... I don't like watching him, enjoy his style of play and i don't care 4 his attitude... For me he offers little to tennis in the form of entertainment and fire...

This is purely my opinion but if players like murray continue to flurish it will make the game even less palatable to the average observer... It's also impossible to watch him over here as the commentators will not shut up about his fantastic godlike abilities...:(

P_Agony
04-07-2009, 03:22 AM
Are you serious. Federer unbeatable on HC? :shock: Where have you been for the last year and a half. We are not in 2006 any more.

Grass is Federer`s best surface.

Read the freaking post! I wrote - "is a proof that at his best, Federer is almost unbeatable on hard courts." Of course he isn't unbeatable on HC now, as he's playing like crap. Even I would have a good chance to beat him on that Djokovic match. When Fed plays his A- game (US Open 2008), Nobody stands a chance.

Leublu tennis
04-07-2009, 04:24 AM
I have no idea where you're getting 'nearly 3000 points' from.

As of this morning, Roger is 2180 points in front of Murray, but that's a bit of a skewed picture, as Roger isn't playing Monte Carlo and will lose a juicy 700 points there, making the 'virtual gap' 1480. If Murray plays to his seeding @ MC then the gap is down to 1270, with Murray having only 370 points to defend in the rest of the clay season compared to Roger's 2700.

Still think there's no chance at all?Fed also loses 370 points from Estoril which he will skip.

Through Wimby, points to defend:

Nadal ......6060
Federer ...4550
Djokovic ..2730
Murray ......870

LT

veroniquem
04-07-2009, 04:40 AM
He's saying at his best, Federer is unbeatable on hardcourts. And of course, he's not at his best currently.
At his best, Federer was beaten by Safin at AO and by Nalbandian at Master Cup. You could say he is extremely hard to beat at his best but unbeatable is a little exaggerated.

Ian Stewart
04-07-2009, 04:43 AM
Read the freaking post! I wrote - "is a proof that at his best, Federer is almost unbeatable on hard courts." Of course he isn't unbeatable on HC now, as he's playing like crap. Even I would have a good chance to beat him on that Djokovic match. When Fed plays his A- game (US Open 2008), Nobody stands a chance.

Ignore him P_Agony. He is just a Retireovic troll.

veroniquem
04-07-2009, 04:49 AM
I hope not, i really don't like Murray... I don't like watching him, enjoy his style of play and i don't care 4 his attitude... For me he offers little to tennis in the form of entertainment and fire...

This is purely my opinion but if players like murray continue to flurish it will make the game even less palatable to the average observer... It's also impossible to watch him over here as the commentators will not shut up about his fantastic godlike abilities...:(
Murray is a very intelligent player in the sense that he doesn't go for the winner every time, he constructs his points, is patient and takes his opportunities when they come. His defense is phenomenal and a joy to watch. His serve can be a lethal weapon too. He's also very gracious in defeat, so I don't know why you resent his attitude so much.
There is no doubt Murray has a brilliant tennis future ahead of him.

veroniquem
04-07-2009, 04:55 AM
I recall this time last year there was an uproar about Djokovic being the best player on earth. Where is he now? And Nadal was struglling to hold on to No2. Now where is everybody? The only constant in men's tennis is Roger Federer. I expect Roger to reclaim No 1. As for Murray, he's doing well now, but he'll likely fade (just like Djokovic) before the French. His game will take too much out of him on clay.
What do you call "fade"? Djoko is still #3, he hasn't faded. I'm pretty sure Murray won't fade, he has been pretty consistent in his results for the last 9 months. He's only likely to improve.

caulcano
04-07-2009, 05:04 AM
Murray is a very intelligent player in the sense that he doesn't go for the winner every time, he constructs his points, is patient and takes his opportunities when they come. His defense is phenomenal and a joy to watch. His serve can be a lethal weapon too. He's also very gracious in defeat, so I don't know why you resent his attitude so much.
There is no doubt Murray has a brilliant tennis future ahead of him.

I don't thinks there's any doubt Murray is an intelligent player but I too, do not like his style of play (not saying it's bad).

His defense is phenomenal but definetely not a "joy to watch" for me.

veroniquem
04-07-2009, 05:14 AM
I don't thinks there's any doubt Murray is an intelligent player but I too, do not like his style of play (not saying it's bad).

His defense is phenomenal but definetely not a "joy to watch" for me.
It seems that for some people on this board, noone is a joy to watch except for their favorite, it's a real shame. I watched the Miami final and I enjoyed it tremendously. There was some fantastic netplay and the second set was very competitive, not boring in the least. Frankly, Nadal, Djoko and Murray are the best players in the new generation. If you're gonna snob the very best, then you may as well snob tennis as they're gonna be the top for the next few years.

dr325i
04-07-2009, 05:23 AM
Fed also loses 370 points from Estoril which he will skip.

Through Wimby, points to defend:

Nadal ......6060
Federer ...4550
Djokovic ..2730
Murray ......870

LT

hmmm, something is not right there...
According to the other sources, Djokovic has 2800 points to defend up till RG and Murray 520. How come through Wimby he has less to defend? And as I remember he played the finals at Queens and he got to the SF at RG...
Similarly, Murray should have more to defend since he got fairly far at Wimby (QF).
THe "other" source may be wrong, though...

Leublu tennis
04-07-2009, 03:59 PM
I hope not, i really don't like Murray... I don't like watching him, enjoy his style of play and i don't care 4 his attitude... For me he offers little to tennis in the form of entertainment and fire...

This is purely my opinion but if players like murray continue to flurish it will make the game even less palatable to the average observer... It's also impossible to watch him over here as the commentators will not shut up about his fantastic godlike abilities...:(Very, very good points. I agree with you completely. Am waiting for the inevitable decline by Murray so that he would just go away.

hoodjem
04-07-2009, 04:05 PM
If he keeps beating Fed and Djoker, he will.

I'm looking for a rejuvenated Federer. (Someone's gotta defend the 1HBH.)

cadillac303
04-07-2009, 05:51 PM
I don't think Murray has reached the level of winning consistently that Federer is at right now. Even if Murray beats Federer in a couple tournaments this year, overall, Federer will do better- and retain the #2 ranking.

clayman2000
04-07-2009, 07:03 PM
Agree. As for Wimbledon, Roger still has his best shot to tie Pete's record there because he will be seeded as No.2, no matter what happens in the clay season. If he fails to do that, his ranking will most likely drop to No.3 before US open. Right now, Roger has less problem with Novak. If both Rafa and Andy play to their ranking, it will be a daunting task for Roger to beat them back to back.

Exactly
I would say USO is still Federers best shot though as Nadal is stronger on grass (moves better, backhand stays low).

Federer is lucky that Murray went out early at AO becuase if Murray had won that match and beaten Tsonga (likely result) Murray would be only 500 points behind him post Monte Carlo

tudwell
04-07-2009, 07:09 PM
Murray won't even take number 3.

clayman2000
04-07-2009, 07:40 PM
Murray won't even take number 3.

You do understand that Murray is less than 200 points behind Djokovic

Djokovic will not defend Rome (realistically he has little chance)
So all Murray has to do is repeat his results (which wont be hard to do) and he is ahead of the Djoker in 1 month

tudwell
04-07-2009, 07:44 PM
You do understand that Murray is less than 200 points behind Djokovic

Djokovic will not defend Rome (realistically he has little chance)
So all Murray has to do is repeat his results (which wont be hard to do) and he is ahead of the Djoker in 1 month
Well, anything can happen. Djokovic can defend his title. Or maybe Murray gets to the match where he can finally take the number 3 ranking and chokes (Djokovic choked away several chances to get number 2 - once against Nieminen of all people).

cknobman
04-08-2009, 06:41 AM
I remember last year during the clay court season it was looking very favorable for Djoker to take over the #2 spot from Rafa.

We all know how that story played out.

Point is wait and see anything can happen.

dr325i
04-08-2009, 08:13 AM
Well, anything can happen. Djokovic can defend his title. Or maybe Murray gets to the match where he can finally take the number 3 ranking and chokes (Djokovic choked away several chances to get number 2 - once against Nieminen of all people).

I believe Murray WILL take #3 but also believe that Novak will regain #3 by the USO... Who will be #2 and #4 by then, remains to be seen...

madmanfool
04-08-2009, 09:49 AM
Points without clay season
1. Nadal 9860 (14470-4610)
2. Murray 8320 (8840-520)
3. Federer 7620 (11020-3400)
4. Djokovic 6210 (9010-2800)

Cyan
04-08-2009, 09:55 AM
Looks like he will... IF he continues winning tons of M1000 and MM titles.......

DunlopDood
04-08-2009, 10:13 AM
Federer still plays very well in the grand Slam events, Murray will have to have on e hell of a year.

Cyan
04-08-2009, 10:48 AM
Federer still plays very well in the grand Slam events, Murray will have to have on e hell of a year.

True, in the slams as well.

Blade0324
04-08-2009, 08:24 PM
Murray will take #2 this year. Not only that but I expect that in 2010 Fed will lose the #3 ranking an possibly even move out of the top 5.

FEDERER>buttpicker.
04-08-2009, 08:49 PM
yeah. only cos Federer will have taken no1.

carlos djackal
04-09-2009, 12:07 AM
I really think he can do it realistically......

Leublu tennis
04-09-2009, 02:03 AM
Points without clay season
1. Nadal 9860 (14470-4610)
2. Murray 8320 (8840-520)
3. Federer 7620 (11020-3400)
4. Djokovic 6210 (9010-2800)

Points during clay season:

1. Nadal 4610
2. Federer 3400
3. Djokovic 2800
4. Davydenko 1840
5. Del Potro 1190
6. Simon 900
7. ??
8. ??
?.
?.
?. Murray 520

I only did the additional figuring for players who won 2 clay court titles. How many others are better than Murray on clay, I just don't know.

The best Murray did last year was to reach R16 at Monte Carlo (lost to Djokovic 6-0, 6-4) and Hamburg (Nadal 6-2, 6-3). He was then ranked in top 20 so got knocked out by better players in the early rounds.

This year he will have better seeding as #4 so might do better since he will be meeting qualifiers and lower ranked players. In any case, I don't see him doing much during the clay season.

LT

batz
04-09-2009, 07:29 AM
The probability has reduced now that Roger has taken a wc @ monte carlo.

Cyan
04-09-2009, 07:35 AM
The probability has reduced now that Roger has taken a wc @ monte carlo.

Yup.....................

Leublu tennis
04-09-2009, 05:43 PM
hmmm, something is not right there...
According to the other sources, Djokovic has 2800 points to defend up till RG and Murray 520. How come through Wimby he has less to defend? And as I remember he played the finals at Queens and he got to the SF at RG...
Similarly, Murray should have more to defend since he got fairly far at Wimby (QF).
THe "other" source may be wrong, though...

Djokovic: MC 450, Rome 1000, FO 900, London 310, Wimby 70. Thats how I got 2730

Murray: MC 150, Rome 70, FO 150, Wimby 500. E.g. 870

As I understand it, Madrid points drop in October. Djokovic has 150 and Murray 1000.

LT

rhubarb
04-09-2009, 06:02 PM
Djokovic: MC 450, Rome 1000, FO 900, London 310, Wimby 70. Thats how I got 2730

Murray: MC 150, Rome 70, FO 150, Wimby 500. E.g. 870

As I understand it, Madrid points drop in October. Djokovic has 150 and Murray 1000.

LT


Sounds about right, though we need to add in 450 for Djokovic and 150 for Murray in Hamburg.

Leublu tennis
04-09-2009, 06:11 PM
Sounds about right, though we need to add in 450 for Djokovic and 150 for Murray in Hamburg.
I don't follow. Hamburg points are dropped on May 19, so Murray gains 300 on Djokovic. But I was listing only points that need to be defended.

LT

rhubarb
04-09-2009, 06:17 PM
I don't follow. Hamburg points are dropped on May 19, so Murray gains 300 on Djokovic. But I was listing only points that need to be defended.

LT

Surely it's the same thing: points that are dropping off are points that need to be defended. Sometimes of course it's impossible to defend points if there's not a tournament that week. In this case Hamburg points will be defended in Madrid.