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View Full Version : Will Nadal Tie Sampras?


lordmanji
04-19-2009, 12:15 PM
he has 6 grand slams, will have 7 by the end of this year when he wins another french, and possibly 8 but ill only give him a 50 percent chance to win wimbledon again. then i think his chances are the us open are not significant enough to factor in. he's 22 right now and he likely has 4 years left before his type of physical game burns him out. so lets do the math. also he has a .5 chance to win the AO again since he has not made it to finals any previous year. plus as the years go by it will be harder for him to do well at AO and Wimbledon. this is all arguable give and take but roughly my measurement units.


2009 - 1 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 7.5 grand slams
2010 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 9.5 slams
2011 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 11.5 slams
2012 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 13.5 slams

so if nadal's career is done in four years and he keeps up even half the pace of this year, he should end up with 13.5 slams.

helloworld
04-19-2009, 12:20 PM
13.5 slams??? Didn't know you can win half a slam as well. :lol:

paulorenzo
04-19-2009, 12:33 PM
he has 6 grand slams, will have 7 by the end of this year when he wins another french, and possibly 8 but ill only give him a 50 percent chance to win wimbledon again. then i think his chances are the us open are not significant enough to factor in. he's 22 right now and he likely has 4 years left before his type of physical game burns him out. so lets do the math. also he has a .5 chance to win the AO again since he has not made it to finals any previous year. plus as the years go by it will be harder for him to do well at AO and Wimbledon. this is all arguable give and take but roughly my measurement units.


2009 - 1 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 7.5 grand slams
2010 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 9.5 slams
2011 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 11.5 slams
2012 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 13.5 slams

so if nadal's career is done in four years and he keeps up even half the pace of this year, he should end up with 13.5 slams.
your statistic predictions are pretty clever. there is actually a decent chance for nadal to tie pete, given he stays healthy for 4 years.
the only difference to me would be like so:
2009 - 1 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, .25 USO = 7.75 slams
2010 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, .25 USO = 10 slams
2011 - .25 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, .25 USO = 12 slams
2012 - 0 AO, 1 FO, .25Wimbledon, 0 USO = 13.25 slams

reasoning, i have a feeling this year and next year will be his dominant years. he will definitely be a HUGE favorite at the FO, and will be a big contender at all other slams, granted he stays healthy and is not fatigued by the end of season.

i believe however that he will have a faster decline form the top than say, pete or roger because of his play. if one looks at players like courier, a great player he was in top form. but career longevity wise, he didnt out last pete. he was dominant in his consecutive weeks as number one, but once he hit the downfall, he never regained top form. both rafa and courier have the same "i'm running every ball down and hitting them back," style of play. this will probably help rafa get a number of slams in the beginning, but will probably hinder his chances at slams greatly in the end of his career. younger players will come through and challenge him, players like murray and djokovic will probably still be in the picture, etc etc. quite a few logical aspects point out that rafa won't be as successful by years 2011-2012

GameSampras
04-19-2009, 01:10 PM
11-12 slams is pretty realistic for Nadal IMO. I dont think he will break Sampras' record however. Since I dont think he will maintain a high level long enough to do so. He needs to grab every slam possible now if he wants a shot. He has the luxury of youth on his side which helps him recover quicker, and helps him with speed. He wont have this luxury in another few years

helloworld
04-19-2009, 01:13 PM
he has 6 grand slams, will have 7 by the end of this year when he wins another french, and possibly 8 but ill only give him a 50 percent chance to win wimbledon again. then i think his chances are the us open are not significant enough to factor in. he's 22 right now and he likely has 4 years left before his type of physical game burns him out. so lets do the math. also he has a .5 chance to win the AO again since he has not made it to finals any previous year. plus as the years go by it will be harder for him to do well at AO and Wimbledon. this is all arguable give and take but roughly my measurement units.


2009 - 1 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 7.5 grand slams
2010 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 9.5 slams
2011 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 11.5 slams
2012 - .5 AO, 1 FO, .5 Wimbledon, 0 USO = 13.5 slams

so if nadal's career is done in four years and he keeps up even half the pace of this year, he should end up with 13.5 slams.
You are misusing expected value approach to make a naive forecast.... but nice try. ;)

Richie Rich
04-19-2009, 02:40 PM
along with the physical pounding his body takes what about all the mental energy he uses. he almost wills himself to win some points. that has to take a toll too. you can't keep going at 110% forever.

without any statistical analysis, i say he gets 10. but then again i never thought he'd win wimbledon or the AO.

saram
04-19-2009, 02:45 PM
I think it is a little premature...

All-rounder
04-19-2009, 02:46 PM
i can see him with 9-12 slams once nadal hits federer's age his body will take its toll no chasing the ball for each point no entering every tournament each year making sure he remains injury free which will be his hardest challenge

VivalaVida
04-19-2009, 02:47 PM
I think it is a little premature...
Yes you are right. Rafa is sitting at 6 slams while Pete is all the way there at 14. Way to early.

saram
04-19-2009, 02:49 PM
Yes you are right. Rafa is sitting at 6 slams while Pete is all the way there at 14. Way to early.

I tell you what though, if he stays healthy all year, keep the tape off the knees, and stays in the top three for another four years--I'd say he is highly capable of having the most slams when he's done playing top-tier tennis.

I'll put nothing past Rafa--his desire and heart are sublime.

All-rounder
04-19-2009, 02:51 PM
Yes you are right. Rafa is sitting at 6 slams while Pete is all the way there at 14. Way to early.
how to early nadal is ahead of the schedule at 22 with 6 slams?? Has plenty of years ahead of him but this is tennis and anything can happen I remember when federer won 12 in 2007 and everyone was like yeah there's no way he can't pass sampras record

VivalaVida
04-19-2009, 03:09 PM
how to early nadal is ahead of the schedule at 22 with 6 slams?? Has plenty of years ahead of him but this is tennis and anything can happen I remember when federer won 12 in 2007 and everyone was like yeah there's no way he can't pass sampras record
sheesh man calm down. I know anything can happen and I never said that Nadal wont reach the target. Sampras fans can start crapping in their pants when Rafa gets to 9 or 10. And when you say anything can happen, that means that things can change for the better or the worse.

All-rounder
04-19-2009, 03:19 PM
sheesh man calm down. I know anything can happen and I never said that Nadal wont reach the target. Sampras fans can start crapping in their pants when Rafa gets to 9 or 10. And when you say anything can happen, that means that things can change for the better or the worse.
So are suggesting that Federer won't pass sampras by the time nadal gets to 9 or 10 slams?

VivalaVida
04-19-2009, 04:18 PM
So are suggesting that Federer won't pass sampras by the time nadal gets to 9 or 10 slams?
I think Federer will be tied or ahead of sampras by the time nadal gets to 9 or 10. I dont think sampras fans would like 2 guys tied or ahead of sampras though :D