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View Full Version : RG 'll lose its credibility if Nole is on Rafa's side of the draw 4 time in a row


Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 01:24 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?

edberg505
05-16-2009, 01:29 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?

You know what would be really funny is if Novak does end up on Federer's side and Federer kicks his teeth in, now that would be funny!

Giggs The Red Devil
05-16-2009, 01:32 PM
Chelsea met Liverpool 3 times in a row in the Champions League. What’s your point?

tudwell
05-16-2009, 01:32 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?

There you go. Which means that the probability of Djokovic ending up 4 times on Nadal's side is exactly the same as the probability of any other possible configuration of draws in 4 years.

weallwegot
05-16-2009, 01:33 PM
Big deal, either way its going to be Nadal vs Federer in finals. :twisted:

CocaCola
05-16-2009, 01:34 PM
I have a felling that its gonna be the 4th time...then Fed will have a walkover to the final...again.

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 01:35 PM
You know what would be really funny is if Novak does end up on Federer's side and Federer kicks his teeth in, now that would be funny!

It depends on which you're talking about: The Djoko that played against Rafa today or the one that can't stand the heat in Australia?

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 01:37 PM
There you go. Which means that the probability of Djokovic ending up 4 times on Nadal's side is exactly the same as the probability of any other possible configuration of draws in 4 years.

4 times in a row can't be "random" anymore.Come on!!!

Serendipitous
05-16-2009, 01:40 PM
Djokovic better not be on Nadal's side this year or else we'll have something similar to the situation today - it felt like a final but it wasn't a final.

Djokovic deserves not to have Nadal on his side. He's been playing too well lately.

Regardless of what happens tomorrow, Djokovic is definitely the second best clay-courter.

tudwell
05-16-2009, 01:41 PM
4 times in a row can't be "random" anymore.Come on!!!

It can be and it is. Do you know anything about probability? Go flip a coin 100 times and tell me how often it's heads 4 times in a row.

All-rounder
05-16-2009, 01:45 PM
if you guys want djokovic to be on federer's side of the draw then he should have capitalised back in january when he had a chance to take no 2 off of him

The Pure One
05-16-2009, 01:46 PM
Agree! To me the Madrid final was today, like the past weeks. Let's admit it, Djoker and Nadal in the FO final can be a better match and be more interesting than Nadal-Fed final.

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 01:48 PM
It can be and it is. Do you know anything about probability? Go flip a coin 100 times and tell me how often it's heads 4 times in a row.

I know as much as you about probabilty.My point stands that if Nole lands on Rafa's side of the draw for the 4th time then that draw is rigged.

Giggs The Red Devil
05-16-2009, 01:50 PM
Every good conspiracy theory needs a motive. Why? Why are those frenchies fix the draw so Djokovic will be in Nadal’s half?

tudwell
05-16-2009, 01:52 PM
I know as much as you about probabilty.My point stands that if Nole lands on Rafa's side of the draw for the 4th time then that draw is rigged.

I'm not following you. So something that's perfectly normal and has a fifty percent chance of happening proves that the French Open hates Djokovic and will do everything they can to keep him from making the final?

gj011
05-16-2009, 01:52 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?

Agree completely. If Djokovic is in Nadals half of the draw in RG for the 4th time in a row it would be quite fishy.

gj011
05-16-2009, 01:54 PM
Every good conspiracy theory needs a motive. Why? Why are those frenchies fix the draw so Djokovic will be in Nadal’s half?

Because they want Federer in the final. Even if he does not deserve it.

tudwell
05-16-2009, 01:56 PM
Agree completely. If Djokovic is in Nadals half of the draw in RG for the 4th time in a row it would be quite fishy.

I disagree. He's been in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It's about time they put him in the top half!

Kozak
05-16-2009, 01:56 PM
It can be and it is. Do you know anything about probability? Go flip a coin 100 times and tell me how often it's heads 4 times in a row.

First of all, I dont believe that the draw is fixed, but I am very good at my math, especially probability and statistics, and the chances are for Novak to be on Federer side of the draw four times in a row are 6.25%.



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All-rounder
05-16-2009, 01:57 PM
I know as much as you about probabilty.My point stands that if Nole lands on Rafa's side of the draw for the 4th time then that draw is rigged.
I don't undertstand why people are getting worked up about this its just one slam where djokovic is on the same side as nadal he wasn't on the same side at AO or US open or even wimbledon (from last year if he progressed)

If its fixed theres nothing that can be done

gj011
05-16-2009, 01:59 PM
I disagree. He's been in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It's about time they put him in the top half!

I disagree. #3 seed was in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It is time to put #3 seed in the top half.

Giggs The Red Devil
05-16-2009, 02:00 PM
Because they want Federer in the final. Even if he does not deserve it.

You have to go through six rounds to get to the final. I doubt the organisers have so much faith in Federer. Maybe Djokovic will have "luck" this year.

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 02:02 PM
I'm not following you. So something that's perfectly normally and has a fifty percent chance of happening proves that the French Open hates Djokovic and will do everything they can to keep him from making the final?

They don't hate Djokovic,they kinda want Fed to be in the finals.

Hot Sauce
05-16-2009, 02:03 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?

RG really cares that you think it is not credible.

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 02:04 PM
I don't undertstand why people are getting worked up about this its just one slam where djokovic is on the same side as nadal he wasn't on the same side at AO or US open or even wimbledon (from last year if he progressed)

If its fixed theres nothing that can be done

So it's good for you coz it's the "only" slam where they always meet in the semis?

rubberduckies
05-16-2009, 02:04 PM
Given that they've been on the same side the last 3 times, the probability it happens a 4th time is 1/2.

Draw isn't rigged. Flip 4 coins, and you have a 1/16 chance of it landing with 4 heads. Stranger things happen.

Now scheduling on the other hand .........

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 02:05 PM
RG really cares that you think it is not credible.

Care or not i'm just voicing my opinion,which i'm entitled to.

nhat8121
05-16-2009, 02:05 PM
if he's good enough to beat nadal in the semi, then he's good enough to win the final...so who cares

Dave M
05-16-2009, 02:05 PM
Surely it's just a 50 50 chance each time it happens that he'll be top or bottom half of the draw?Maybe he'll be in the same half of the draw again but Nadal might nt be as he's no.1 this year?

All-rounder
05-16-2009, 02:10 PM
So it's good for you coz it's the "only" slam where they always meet in the semis?
whether they meet or not there will always be nadal awaiting them if not in the semi's then the finals

skip1969
05-16-2009, 02:10 PM
tourney's been around since 1891. somehow, i think it's (officially) bigger than nadal, nole, or any other player that gets randomly drawn in the same half . . . for however many years in a row.

what is UP today?? i mean, i know nadal had a close match, but why is everyone pressing the friggin' PANIC button?

Jimmyk459
05-16-2009, 02:11 PM
this thread is really dumb

Dutch-Guy
05-16-2009, 02:14 PM
this thread is really dumb

Then why react on a "dumb" thread?

bruce38
05-16-2009, 02:22 PM
4 times in a row is just as probable as any other specific configuration. If he he had flipped from in the 1st and 3rd years it would have just seemed more random, but it isn't.

skip1969
05-16-2009, 02:27 PM
http://www.duvet-dayz.com/assets/post_img/w20061030/PanicButton.JPG

rod99
05-16-2009, 02:35 PM
conspiracy theory posts are beyond ridiculous. there is no such thing as a "rigged draw" at any tournament. posts like this make the original poster look foolish.

autumn_leaf
05-16-2009, 02:42 PM
well since each time it's independent then it's 50%. 4 times in a row though is .5*.5*.5*.5 = .0625. so around 6%

but this is like going to a roulette table and seeing red came up 3 times in a row and thinking the chances of a 4th red is going to be 6% so black is a ~90% chance of coming up.

bruce38
05-16-2009, 02:55 PM
1st year - Rafa's half, 2nd year - Fed's half, 3rd year - Rafa's half, 4th year - Fed's half .... IS also equal to 6% chance!

oscar_2424
05-16-2009, 02:58 PM
Gaudio will take eithr FEderer or Djokovic out in the second round. mark my words

tudwell
05-16-2009, 03:09 PM
I disagree. #3 seed was in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It is time to put #3 seed in the top half.

LOL. Touché.

maddogz32
05-16-2009, 03:22 PM
it doesnt matter, because everyone knows its gonna be nadal vs. federer or djokovic in the final

Nadal_Freak
05-16-2009, 03:41 PM
I really think the 3 and 4 should alternate by slams. The rest can be random though but those 2 positions are very crucial and need to be evened out.

bruce38
05-16-2009, 04:05 PM
It should be done how most other major sports do it - make it 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 every time and leave it like that so it's up to the players with rankings to decide. No surprises that way.

Nadal_Freak
05-16-2009, 04:10 PM
It should be done how most other major sports do it - make it 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 every time and leave it like that so it's up to the players with rankings to decide. No surprises that way.
The matchups get boring that way. We need more matchups to keep tennis interesting. There are way more tournaments in tennis than other major sports.

clayman2000
05-16-2009, 04:45 PM
I disagree. #3 seed was in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It is time to put #3 seed in the top half.

In that case, Novak will be in Nadal's half for the 4th straight year. Why? Djokovic will be the fourth seed as he is currently the no 4 player in the world

bruce38
05-16-2009, 04:47 PM
The matchups get boring that way. We need more matchups to keep tennis interesting. There are way more tournaments in tennis than other major sports.

The majority of the grand slams in the last few years have been Fed-Nadal finals, hasn't gotten boring yet, at least not for me. 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 will always be exciting when you have 4 such greats consistently at the top. Plus with #3 and #4 flip-flopping recently and possibly also #2 in the future, you'll get the variety that you crave. The rankings should decide who plays who, not random chance. The rankings are there to give the top seeds the advantage in tournaments. Hence it is only fair that #1 get to play #4.

Chadwixx
05-16-2009, 04:48 PM
Ya because the same players play every tournament, never get injured, rankings never change and always make it to where they are supposed to in the draw.

There are alot of variables that would keep the draws fresh every week.

Its silly to go against the mathmatical equally the draw (tournament format) was made to preform.

Chadwixx
05-16-2009, 04:50 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?

Hewitt was in feds side of the draw for 16 straight tourneys after he sued the atp a few years ago :)

lidoazndiabloboi
05-16-2009, 05:12 PM
It should be done how most other major sports do it - make it 1 vs. 4 and 2 vs. 3 every time and leave it like that so it's up to the players with rankings to decide. No surprises that way.

I completely agree with this idea.
If you wanna say this is boring, then just accept the fact that the draws are completely random and there's no such thing as a "rigged" draw.

Djokovic vs Federer FO final anyone????

bdawg
05-16-2009, 05:31 PM
assuming each draw is an independent event. the probability of Djokovic ending up on Nadal's half is 1/2.

1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2 = (1/2)^4= 0.0625 = 6.25%

The-Champ
05-16-2009, 05:38 PM
He will have to play Nadal to get that clay slam anyway. Who cares which draw he lands on.

WhiskeyEE
05-16-2009, 05:59 PM
This thread is dumb. 3 years ago Joker was seeing 1st/2nd round exits at every clay tournament. 2 years ago he still wasn't a threat to either player and there was no reason that the ATP would've rigged his position. Last year he would've been a threat to Fed, but there was a 50% chance where he'd end up, just like any other year, including this year.

There's a 1/8 chance that he'd end up on either player's draw 3 times in a row and there are more than 8 tournaments. You guys are looking for things that aren't there.

ChanceEncounter
05-16-2009, 07:17 PM
I know as much as you about probabilty.My point stands that if Nole lands on Rafa's side of the draw for the 4th time then that draw is rigged.

Obviously you don't. (.5)^4 = .0625. There's a 6.25% chance that it happens simply by chance. That's not even below the 5% confidence threshold for a basic confidence interval. Furthermore, given that it's already happened 3 times, the fourth is completely independent, so it's still a 50% chance that Djokovic lands in Nadal's draw.

That doesn't prove the "draw is rigged."

And I agree with the 1-4, 2-3 format. Tennis is really the only sport that doesn't do that. So by "random" chance, the #1 seed could be penalized if the #3 seed winds up in their draw, particularly if there is a dropoff between the 3 and 4.

WhiskeyEE
05-16-2009, 07:23 PM
Obviously you don't. (.5)^4 = .0625. There's a 6.25% chance that it happens simply by chance. That's not even below the 5% confidence threshold for a basic confidence interval. Furthermore, given that it's already happened 3 times, the fourth is completely independent, so it's still a 50% chance that Djokovic lands in Nadal's draw.

That doesn't prove the "draw is rigged."

And I agree with the 1-4, 2-3 format. Tennis is really the only sport that doesn't do that. So by "random" chance, the #1 seed could be penalized if the #3 seed winds up in their draw, particularly if there is a dropoff between the 3 and 4.

1-4 and 2-3 doesn't work. There is a good reason that it isn't in place.

Imagine a hypothetical ranking with Sampras at #3 and Kuerten at #4. The #1 seed would actually be penalized at the FO by having to play the #4 seed instead of the #3, even if the #3 is the better player overall.

gj011
05-16-2009, 07:34 PM
In that case, Novak will be in Nadal's half for the 4th straight year. Why? Djokovic will be the fourth seed as he is currently the no 4 player in the world

Read again. #3 should be in the top half (Nadal's). That was my point.

tennisdad65
05-16-2009, 07:41 PM
lol.. Novak may not make the semi's. bring up this thread in 3+ weeks if he does make it :)

bluetrain4
05-16-2009, 07:42 PM
I think RG's credibility will be just fine no matter the draw.

TheNatural
05-16-2009, 07:56 PM
We all know that every draw is an independent event,which means that there is 50% probability that Djokovic may land in Rafa's side of the draw.
But the probability that Nole lands on the same side of Rafa's draw 4 times in a row is just***.I mean "randomly"4 times in a row!!! We need something different this year.
Are these draws really random?


There is a 6% chance of Joker landing in Fed's half 4 times in row. So people can make their own minds up. 6%!!!!!

gj011
05-16-2009, 08:07 PM
lol.. Novak may not make the semi's. bring up this thread in 3+ weeks if he does make it :)

LOL. What a tool.
Novak will make it to the RG SF. There is no doubt about it. He made to the at least SF of EACH clay tournament he played last two years.

RoddickAce
05-16-2009, 08:08 PM
And people complain when Roddick complains about being in Federer's quarter all the time.

bruce38
05-16-2009, 09:02 PM
1-4 and 2-3 doesn't work. There is a good reason that it isn't in place.

Imagine a hypothetical ranking with Sampras at #3 and Kuerten at #4. The #1 seed would actually be penalized at the FO by having to play the #4 seed instead of the #3, even if the #3 is the better player overall.

Sampras would never have made it to the semis at the FO...:):-P

jamesblakefan#1
05-16-2009, 10:49 PM
Djokovic has only been top 4 the past 2 times. He was out of top 10 in 06, and they met in the QF, not SF

jms007
05-16-2009, 11:18 PM
Um, some of you really need work on your math. Draws are independent of the previous years draws, so each time the chances 50/50, not 5% or 6% or whatever the hell number you came up with. If you flip a coin, it's enitrely possible for get "heads" 5,10,15 times in a row, but each time you flip it its 50/50. You flip it a 100 times, it might be 60% heads. But the more you flip the more negligible the difference becomes and you closer and closer to 50%.

thejoe
05-17-2009, 01:36 AM
I disagree. #3 seed was in the bottom half of the draw for three years running. It is time to put #3 seed in the top half.

Counteracting the random draw by rigging it would make RG lose credibility. Luckily, you have none left, so nobody really pays attention to your bile stream posts anyway.

batz
05-17-2009, 02:00 AM
[QUOTE=ChanceEncounter;3430160]Obviously you don't. (.5)^4 = .0625. There's a 6.25% chance that it happens simply by chance. That's not even below the 5% confidence threshold for a basic confidence interval. Furthermore, given that it's already happened 3 times, the fourth is completely independent, so it's still a 50% chance that Djokovic lands in Nadal's draw.

That doesn't prove the "draw is rigged."

QUOTE]

This post has nailed it. There is no conspiracy.

vtmike
05-17-2009, 02:13 AM
Counteracting the random draw by rigging it would make RG lose credibility. Luckily, you have none left, so nobody really pays attention to your bile stream posts anyway.

I Agree! +1

Anyways lets break it down,

1) In 2005 Djokovic lost to Guillermo Coria in the second round of RG (he retired after three sets). So it did not matter if he was in Fed's or Nadal's half anyways...

2) In 2006 Djokovic lost to Nadal in the QF after two sets (he retired after playing two sets!). So he would have retired against any other player. Thus it did not matter if he was in Nadal's of Fed's half again...

3) In 2007 Djokovic lost to Nadal in three straight sets...and Fed took Nadal to four sets (more than what Djokovic was able to achieve). So how can you say Djokovic would have defeated Fed in the semis had they met based on their performances against Nadal? :-?

4) 2008 is the only year where it might have made a difference as Djokovic performed better against Nadal than Fed...But then again who's to say Fed would not have been able to beat Djokovic? I mean he did beat Djokovic in the semis of the USO the same year didn't he? So that is just speculation!

So apart from 2008, it did not matter who's half Djokovic was in because he would not have got to the finals anyways!