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View Full Version : Which has a better chance of happening?

imalil2gangsta4u
05-23-2009, 09:48 AM
Not saying either one will happen. Just wondering, which do you think is more likely to happen and why.

joeri888
05-23-2009, 09:58 AM
Uhh this is easy, there's actually a mathematically correct answer. For Fed winning RG, Nadal has to lose, but for Nadal losing Fed doesn't have to win. Therefore, Nadal losing of course!

federerdomination
05-23-2009, 10:01 AM
Uhh this is easy, there's actually a mathematically correct answer. For Fed winning RG, Nadal has to lose, but for Nadal losing Fed doesn't have to win. Therefore, Nadal losing of course!

CORRECT!!!!

BreakPoint
05-23-2009, 10:57 AM
I voted for Federer winning RG because Nadal's shirts are so tight I don't think there's any chance of him "loosing" at RG. :lol:

05-23-2009, 10:58 AM
Obviously statistically it would be easier for Nadal to lose RG. Anyone with a brain would know that.

Joseph L. Barrow
05-23-2009, 11:17 AM
Well, since Federer winning would virtually require Nadal losing (I suppose he could default pre-match, but it's a negligible probability), clearly Nadal losing is more likely.

slicekick95
05-23-2009, 11:30 AM
LOL, I deserve a slap because I actually thought about the question and still picked Nadal loosing.

05-23-2009, 11:32 AM
Wow 4 people picked Fed winning as a better chance. Some people need to learn statistics and probability here.

manny pacquiao P4P king
05-23-2009, 11:41 AM
Wow 4 people picked Fed winning as a better chance. Some people need to learn statistics and probability here.

the probability of both is 0. nadal won't lose, fed wont win

manny pacquiao P4P king
05-23-2009, 11:43 AM

jaggy
05-23-2009, 12:51 PM
Its lose not loose, ah that drives me insane.

BreakPoint
05-23-2009, 01:00 PM
Wow 4 people picked Fed winning as a better chance. Some people need to learn statistics and probability here.
What's more likely: Federer winning the US Open or Nadal losing the US Open?

:oops:

joeri888
05-23-2009, 01:35 PM
Its lose not loose, ah that drives me insane.

Some people here don't have English (or no capital E?) as their native language. I think most of us are trying or best really..

volleynets
05-23-2009, 01:39 PM
Wow 4 people picked Fed winning as a better chance. Some people need to learn statistics and probability here.

YOU FOOL DUDE!!!! If Federer won than that would mean automatically Nadal lost. Basically if you pick either option in the poll you are picking the same choice. There is no option that Nadal would win so if you pick Fed to win that is no different than picking Nadal to lose. Some people need to learn how to read here.

oneguy20
05-23-2009, 01:53 PM
Wow 4 people picked Fed winning as a better chance. Some people need to learn statistics and probability here.

Both choices mean a Nadal loss.

oneguy20
05-23-2009, 01:56 PM

What is more likely:

Federer winning and thus Nadal losing.
OR
Nadal losing, but Federer not necessarily winning.

Obviously it's the latter option because it allows for a wider range of possible outcomes.

P_Agony
05-23-2009, 01:57 PM
YOU FOOL DUDE!!!! If Federer won than that would mean automatically Nadal lost. Basically if you pick either option in the poll you are picking the same choice. There is no option that Nadal would win so if you pick Fed to win that is no different than picking Nadal to lose. Some people need to learn how to read here.

However there is a (slim) possibilty that both Nadal and Federer losses, so the poll choices are not exactly the same.

However, if Nadal somehow finds a way to lose early, I bet Federer will do just about everything to win it. He'll know it's a chance of a lifetime. He won't let Murray or Djokovic stop him.

gj011
05-23-2009, 01:59 PM
YOU FOOL DUDE!!!! If Federer won than that would mean automatically Nadal lost. Basically if you pick either option in the poll you are picking the same choice. There is no option that Nadal would win so if you pick Fed to win that is no different than picking Nadal to lose. Some people need to learn how to read here.

What are you talking about. Nadal losing and Federer winning is not the same thing. They both can lose.

This being said, the poll is logically flawed indeed.

05-23-2009, 02:04 PM
YOU FOOL DUDE!!!! If Federer won than that would mean automatically Nadal lost. Basically if you pick either option in the poll you are picking the same choice. There is no option that Nadal would win so if you pick Fed to win that is no different than picking Nadal to lose. Some people need to learn how to read here.
Um heard of the word Djokovic or the whole field. I heard they got chances to. *******s once again don't understand this concept.

Dutch-Guy
05-23-2009, 02:31 PM
Neither will happen.What a poll!!!

rubberduckies
05-23-2009, 02:47 PM
YOU FOOL DUDE!!!! If Federer won than that would mean automatically Nadal lost. Basically if you pick either option in the poll you are picking the same choice. There is no option that Nadal would win so if you pick Fed to win that is no different than picking Nadal to lose. Some people need to learn how to read here.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a286/scooters61/EpicFail.jpg

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:15 PM
Um heard of the word Djokovic or the whole field. I heard they got chances to. *******s once again don't understand this concept.

Are you calling me a ******* you idiot? Get out of here you don't even play tennis. I have stated in my posts that I am a fan of Nadal, Federer, and most of the young upcoming players such as Murray, Simon, Tsonga, Monfils and etc.
Now how about you get a life and enjoy Tennis rather than one player of it.

KEY LESSON: You are a Nadal **** and think that anyone who disagrees with you is a Fed ****.

TRUTH: This is a forum where many will disagree and just because someone does not see the same lines as you does not make them a Fed ****.

05-23-2009, 03:18 PM
Are you calling me a ******* you idiot? Get out of here you don't even play tennis. I have stated in my posts that I am a fan of Nadal, Federer, and most of the young upcoming players such as Murray, Simon, Tsonga, Monfils and etc.
Now how about you get a life and enjoy Tennis rather than one player of it.

KEY LESSON: You are a Nadal **** and think that anyone who disagrees with you is a Fed ****.

TRUTH: This is a forum where many will disagree and just because someone does not see the same lines as you does not make them a Fed ****.
Explain to me how Fed has a better chance winning than Nadal losing. I'd love to hear this.

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:19 PM
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA.

http://i13.photobucket.com/albums/a286/scooters61/EpicFail.jpg

Nadal Freak meant to say that he couldnt believe more people picked option 2.

Picking option two would mean that option 2 is also true while picking option 1 would not imply option 2. I should have been more specific.

Option 2 of Fed winning = Option 1 of Nadal losing.
Option 1 of Nadal losing does NOT= Option 2 of Fed winning.

so Nadal Freak said that option two is less likely which is not true.
If Nadal loses Fed has the highest chance of taking French Open.

Rubber duckies learn to read the polls too.

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:19 PM
Explain to me how Fed has a better chance winning than Nadal losing. I'd love to hear this.

I mean that if Nadal loses, Fed or Djoko will win. but if Fed Wins that means Nadal also lost. This is where the poll crosses over.

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:21 PM
Explain to me how Fed has a better chance winning than Nadal losing. I'd love to hear this.

So in turn NF I agree with you that not only Fed can win if Rafa loses but that makes this poll cross over in ways. Don't go calling me a ******* for no reason I simply wanted to state that the poll is more of a trick question than start a war my apologies.

05-23-2009, 03:21 PM
I mean that if Nadal loses, Fed or Djoko will win. but if Fed Wins that means Nadal also lost. This is where the poll crosses over.
Yes and if Nadal lost, Fed could still lose. That is where it is obvious choice would be. Nadal losing is way more likely than Fed winning.

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:24 PM
What are you talking about. Nadal losing and Federer winning is not the same thing. They both can lose.

This being said, the poll is logically flawed indeed.

Yes I was not specific in what I meant sorry. I meant they both can lose but there is only one option of Fed winning and no option in the poll for Nadal to win so this poll does not even add up to 100% of what could happen.

Example: Nadal wins 2009 FO would make both options invalid.

gj011
05-23-2009, 03:24 PM
Nadal Freak meant to say that he couldnt believe more people picked option 2.

Picking option two would mean that option 2 is also true while picking option 1 would not imply option 2. I should have been more specific.

Option 2 of Fed winning = Option 1 of Nadal losing.
Option 1 of Nadal losing does NOT= Option 2 of Fed winning.

so Nadal Freak said that option two is less likely which is not true.
If Nadal loses Fed has the highest chance of taking French Open.

Rubber duckies learn to read the polls too.

I am not going into flaws in your explanation.

Just to say that bold sentence is not true.

tennis-hero
05-23-2009, 03:27 PM
I voted for Federer winning RG because Nadal's shirts are so tight I don't think there's any chance of him "loosing" at RG. :lol:

LOL

agreed

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:27 PM
Yes and if Nadal lost, Fed could still lose. That is where it is obvious choice would be. Nadal losing is way more likely than Fed winning.

True but if you pick fed winning you also picked Nadal losing. However picking Nadal to lose doesn't pick Fed winning which makes the poll in a way invalid.
One choice means to pick both and the other picks only itself.

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:28 PM
I am not going into flaws in your explanation.

Just to say that bold sentence is not true.

gj that sentence is true or not SOLELY based on your opinion whether Djokovic could take Fed out or not. So you are right that sentence is NOT true if you believe Djoko could it but if you believe Fed would take Djoko out than it could well be true.

tennis-hero
05-23-2009, 03:29 PM
Yes and if Nadal lost, Fed could still lose. That is where it is obvious choice would be. Nadal losing is way more likely than Fed winning.

What i think the poll is saying is

EVEN IF FEDERER WINS

will it be because he outplayed Nadal

or will it be because Nadal played sub-par? and handed Rog the win

now excuse me for sounding like a ******* for a moment:shock: but i do believe the Roger's only real chance to win RG is for Rafa to turn up at 70-80% and then not convert the chances he gets, and for Roger to play the best match of his life

05-23-2009, 03:29 PM
True but if you pick fed winning you also picked Nadal losing. However picking Nadal to lose doesn't pick Fed winning which makes the poll in a way invalid.
One choice means to pick both and the other picks only itself.
You thought they were equal at first. My idea was right from the start and some dared to argue against logic. haha.

volleynets
05-23-2009, 03:31 PM
You thought they were equal at first. My idea was right from the start and some dared to argue against logic. haha.

As I said I was not being clear but it is incorrect to think one is more probable than the other because one involves both happening and the option of Nadal winning is missing.

tacou
05-23-2009, 04:08 PM
If Nadal loses Fed doesn't win.

So...yeah.

sh@de
05-23-2009, 06:21 PM
Oops why did I click Fed winning? Well I dno. To be honest, I don't see Nadal losing to anyone at RG except against Fed or Djoker. And I think Fed will beat Djoker and meet Nadal in the finals and.... lose again.

Actually, I think the chances of Nadal losing + Federer winning is so damn small, probably 0.01% cos Nadal win = 99.9% that this poll isn't worth it.

Bundey
05-23-2009, 07:09 PM
This is more of an SAT or IQ test question than a tennis question. What a failure the OP is. lol

05-23-2009, 07:48 PM
This is more of an SAT or IQ test question than a tennis question. What a failure the OP is. lol

Not at all. What a failure this poster is. lol

oneguy20
05-23-2009, 07:52 PM
Sir Probability claims the latter option is more likely.

05-24-2009, 03:56 AM
Oops why did I click Fed winning? Well I dno. To be honest, I don't see Nadal losing to anyone at RG except against Fed or Djoker. And I think Fed will beat Djoker and meet Nadal in the finals and.... lose again.

Actually, I think the chances of Nadal losing + Federer winning is so damn small, probably 0.01% cos Nadal win = 99.9% that this poll isn't worth it.

The chances aren't nearly that bad for Fed. Not to say they are good, though..

sh@de
05-24-2009, 04:05 AM
The chances aren't nearly that bad for Fed. Not to say they are good, though..

haha yeah ok, I was exaggerating, but, you get the idea. I wish Fed could win though...

joeri888
05-24-2009, 04:22 AM