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View Full Version : Predict the Wimbledon draw


Joseph L. Barrow
06-18-2009, 03:19 PM
Well, there are folk around these forums who claim that Grand Slam draws are not actually created randomly, but rather are crafted by organizers conspiring in favor of or against some particular player or nationality. In order to test this hypothesis, I'd like for some of these people herein to set down predictions according to their own perceptions of these organizers' agendas. They can then be compared with the actual released draw tomorrow, with an eye for better-than-chance accuracy.

Thus, let anyone who has a prediction or set of predictions with regards to the draw (eg. which players will be on opposite ends of the draw, which will be placed in the same quarter with one another, etc.) post them here.

gj011
06-18-2009, 03:36 PM
Organizers will be more than happy if Federer and Murray are on opposite sides of the draw. That is quite clear.

Will it happen, I don't know. We will see, but if I have to bet for or against it I would bet that this will be the case.

I also expect yet another easy draw for Federer, although I might be wrong here as well, since Murray is in the spotlight here.

Also just to make it clear, I never claimed that any draw is rigged. I don't know if they are or not, I just present my observations about them.

Favorable schedules and court assignments are another story.

JeMar
06-18-2009, 03:39 PM
I'm not one of those people that thinks that draws are rigged in any way, but I have this hunch that Roddick will end up in Nadal's quarter, Murray and Federer will be on the same half, Djokovic will draw a difficult third round match, and Karlovic will have a pretty easy first round encounter.

jamesblakefan#1
06-18-2009, 04:20 PM
The chances are highly likely that Fed's gonna get an "easy" draw in some's eyes, no matter what.

Just looking at potential QF opponents, #5 DelPotro "hasn't done anything on grass", #6 Roddick he owns, and #8 Simon is in a slump. That leaves Verdasco as the only "suitable" opponent.

I expect a lot of ripping of Montanes, Hanescu, and Troicki in the next 24 hrs, as those are potential 3rd round opponents. This leaves Andreev as the only "suitable" 3rd round opponent.

To sum it up, tommorow's more than likely gonna be another Federer has an easy draw s-storm like we saw before the FO started.

zagor
06-18-2009, 04:23 PM
One thing htat is sure is that Fed is getting a cakewalk(as always),other than that it's hard to predict how the draw will go.

gj011
06-18-2009, 04:27 PM
The chances are highly likely that Fed's gonna get an "easy" draw in some's eyes, no matter what.

Just looking at potential QF opponents, #5 DelPotro "hasn't done anything on grass", #6 Roddick he owns, and #8 Simon is in a slump. That leaves Verdasco as the only "suitable" opponent.

I expect a lot of ripping of Montanes, Hanescu, and Troicki in the next 24 hrs, as those are potential 3rd round opponents. This leaves Andreev as the only "suitable" 3rd round opponent.

To sum it up, tommorow's more than likely gonna be another Federer has an easy draw s-storm like we saw before the FO started.

But Federer indeed had an easy cakewalk draw for RG. Are you denying that?

grafrules
06-18-2009, 04:31 PM
But Federer indeed had an easy cakewalk draw for RG. Are you denying that?

Obviously he didnt when he went to the brink of defeat so often. The great players always seem to have easy draws. Graf, Seles, Federer, Nadal, even Serena never have what seems like a "hard" draw since nearly everyone is their personal beetch anyway.

JennyS
06-18-2009, 04:33 PM
Well, there are folk around these forums who claim that Grand Slam draws are not actually created randomly, but rather are crafted by organizers conspiring in favor of or against some particular player or nationality. In order to test this hypothesis, I'd like for some of these people herein to set down predictions according to their own perceptions of these organizers' agendas. They can then be compared with the actual released draw tomorrow, with an eye for better-than-chance accuracy.

Thus, let anyone who has a prediction or set of predictions with regards to the draw (eg. which players will be on opposite ends of the draw, which will be placed in the same quarter with one another, etc.) post them here.

Roddick will be in Federer's quarter or half. When was the last time they were on the opposite side of the draw in a GS?

egn
06-18-2009, 04:35 PM
Obviously he didnt when he went to the brink of defeat so often. The great players always seem to have easy draws. Graf, Seles, Federer, Nadal, even Serena never have what seems like a "hard" draw since nearly everyone is their personal beetch anyway.

Yea seriously...I mean come on Federer should have to play Nadal every round of a slam. Graf needs to beat Seles in every slam final and Serena needs to play men.

Obviously Federer at the French Open would have been much better tougher draw playing DJokovic in the semifinals who lost to Kohl who lost to Robredo who lost to Del Potro...

RCizzle65
06-18-2009, 05:14 PM
Federer has the easy draw, Nadal has the hard draw, if Nadal pulls out before the draw is done, Federer still has an easy draw, even though he just took the opponents Nadal was going to face.

gj011
06-18-2009, 05:20 PM
Federer has the easy draw, Nadal has the hard draw, if Nadal pulls out before the draw is done, Federer still has an easy draw, even though he just took the opponents Nadal was going to face.

Go and check the rules. Del Potro would get Nadal's opponents if Nadal withdraws after the draw, not Federer.

gj011
06-18-2009, 05:22 PM
Obviously he didnt when he went to the brink of defeat so often. The great players always seem to have easy draws. Graf, Seles, Federer, Nadal, even Serena never have what seems like a "hard" draw since nearly everyone is their personal beetch anyway.

He went to the brink of defeat so often because he was playing like crap, not because he had hard draw or tough opponents on clay.

egn
06-18-2009, 05:24 PM
He went to the brink of defeat so often because he was playing like crap, not because he had hard draw or tough opponents on clay.

So what was Djokovic's reason for defeat and Nadal's? And than would it be fair to say they all had crap draws but since Fed was the only one to survive him it deserves recognition.

Serve_Ace
06-18-2009, 05:27 PM
Well I know Federer's draw is gonna be super easy

norbac
06-18-2009, 05:29 PM
I REALLY hope Federer/Murray happens. Cause it's gonna be freaking epic if it does.

JennyS
06-18-2009, 05:34 PM
What if Roger had won the FO playing Soderling in the QF, Monfils in the SF and Del Potro in the F, I bet fewer would call it a crap draw.

Serve_Ace
06-18-2009, 05:38 PM
What if Roger had won the FO playing Soderling in the QF, Monfils in the SF and Del Potro in the F, I bet fewer would call it a crap draw.

Nah still a crap draw

jamesblakefan#1
06-18-2009, 05:52 PM
The thing I don't get is, everbody said Nadal's draw was tough b/c he had to face Ferrer in the 4th. Then Ferrer lost, theoretically Nadal's draw got easier, right? No, he lost to Soderling, and Soderling became the reason for the tough draw, when he hadn't even been mentioned before the tourney.

Same with Djokovic. His draw was tough b/c of Ferrero or Ljubicic in the 3rd. They both lost, and he got Kohlschreiber instead. Easier, right? No, he lost, and Kohlschreiber became the reason for the supposedly tough draw.

People were complaining that Fed had Roddick and Blake in his section. But they didn't even make it far enough to face Federer, and he got an on point Haas, Monfils, who'd taken a set off him the year before, and DelPotro playing the tennis of his life, with Rafa killer Sod in the finals.

My point is, the draw is unpredictable. You can't predict who's an "easy" opponent and who's not. It's about form and matchups.

oy vey
06-18-2009, 06:02 PM
Nadal Djok Haas Tsonga Simon Verdasco Gonzo
----------------------------------------
Fed Murray Roddick Delpo Cilic Davy Karlovic

CountryHillbilly
06-18-2009, 06:03 PM
No one is saying Federer's draw at FO was rigged, just that it was easy, which is true.

CountryHillbilly
06-18-2009, 06:04 PM
If Roddick is injured, can we agree that whoever of top 4 gets DelPo has an easy draw?

Joseph L. Barrow
06-18-2009, 07:45 PM
Nadal Djok Haas Tsonga Simon Verdasco Gonzo
----------------------------------------
Fed Murray Roddick Delpo Cilic Davy Karlovic
This is the sort of thing I'm looking for. If all or nearly all of these were to come true, it would lend credence to the belief that you're onto something.

Joseph L. Barrow
06-18-2009, 07:54 PM
No one is saying Federer's draw at FO was rigged, just that it was easy, which is true.
I wasn't making any specific claim or reference towards Federer at the French. If you were to ask me, I'd say his opposition did prove unusually weak by the standard of what one would typically expect to face in order to win a Grand Slam title, but this was more the result of the unusual string of upsets which saw Nadal (especially Nadal), Djokovic and Murray all fall before they could go up against Federer.

Rather, I was speaking in general terms of the concept that the draws are in some way drafted with an agenda- "rigged," as some would put it- which tends to float around on these forums before and during the early stages of most every Grand Slam. Frequently, one will see fans of a given player complaining that their player was deliberately given a difficult draw, or else detractors of a player who are upset that said object of dislike has (in their perception) been deliberately gifted with a cakewalk draw as a result of an agenda on the part of the organizers. More or less, I want some proponents of this theory (that the draws are not random) to lay out some specific predictions (the more specific, the better) in advance to see if any of their hypotheses might hold water.

Commando Tennis Shorts
06-18-2009, 08:24 PM
Potential Quarterfinal based on rigged draw---Roddick vs. Federer, of this I am sure :)

Commando Tennis Shorts
06-18-2009, 08:27 PM
Also, of safin, hewitt and baghdatis, two of them will play each other in the 3rd round...let's see

RCizzle65
06-18-2009, 08:37 PM
Also, of safin, hewitt and baghdatis, two of them will play each other in the 3rd round...let's see

Isn't Baggy out from injury?

gj011
06-19-2009, 04:19 AM
Well as I predicted. Murray is not in Federer's half and have by far easiest draw.

Cesc Fabregas
06-19-2009, 04:26 AM
Hopefully we get a Nadal Djokovic final.

TheTruth
06-19-2009, 04:34 AM
Hopefully we get a Nadal Djokovic final.

That would be awesome.

I didn't see this thread in time, but the one thing I felt I could predict with a certainty was that Murray would be on Nadal's half and only able to meet Fed in a final.

thalivest
06-19-2009, 04:35 AM
Hopefully we get a Nadal Djokovic final.

Djokovic wont even get to the semis and if he does he will be spanked easily by Federer. His two wins in smaller events means nothing when- 1)those were not grass, 2)they were not slams, 3)Federer will no doubt have a big surge of confidence after his last 2 wins from what he had back then, 4)Djokovic looks in crap form again and to have taken a confidence hit based on his weak Halle performance.

On the other side I hope Rafa makes the final but with his current health situation unfortunately it will probably be a Murray-Federer final.

Cesc Fabregas
06-19-2009, 04:36 AM
That would be awesome.

I didn't see this thread in time, but the one thing I felt I could predict with a certainty was that Murray would be on Nadal's half and only able to meet Fed in a final.

Unfortantley I don't see it with Nadal's injury and Djoker's struggling form and confidence. :(

Cesc Fabregas
06-19-2009, 04:37 AM
Djokovic wont even get to the semis and if he does he will be spanked easily by Federer. His two wins in smaller events means nothing when- 1)those were not grass, 2)they were not slams, 3)Federer will no doubt have a big surge of confidence after his last 2 wins from what he had back then, 4)Djokovic looks in crap form again.

On the other side I hope Rafa makes the final but with his current health situation unfortunately it will probably be a Murray-Federer final.

Agreed I don't see either of them making the final. :(

thalivest
06-19-2009, 04:40 AM
Agreed I don't see either of them making the final. :(

Who would you cheer for if it does turn out to be the unfortuante Federer- Murray final (which I hope I am wrong on BTW). I know you dont really like either player but as a Brit I am sure you are exposed to the Murray hype machine more than a NA could realize.

Cesc Fabregas
06-19-2009, 04:48 AM
Who would you cheer for if it does turn out to be the unfortuante Federer- Murray final (which I hope I am wrong on BTW). I know you dont really like either player but as a Brit I am sure you are exposed to the Murray hype machine more than a NA could realize.

I honestly don't know who I would support probably Federer if had too, who would support?

JeMar
06-19-2009, 05:32 AM
Well, I was half right.

TheTruth
06-19-2009, 05:34 AM
Unfortantley I don't see it with Nadal's injury and Djoker's struggling form and confidence. :(

I don't see it either, but it would be awesome.

I'm still hoping Rafa doesn't play. His health and overall career trumps another title and holding onto a ranking for me.