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View Full Version : Will Nadal fall to #3?


フェデラー
06-21-2009, 02:30 PM
Is this possible?

Serendipitous
06-21-2009, 02:55 PM
Yes.....:cry::cry::cry::cry:

フェデラー
06-21-2009, 03:00 PM
Wow thats big. That mean Nadal and Federer will be in same half of the draw at US OPEN?!

pricey_aus
06-21-2009, 03:01 PM
Its not certain that they will be in the same half at the us, but yeah i guess its possible. wouldnt murray have to like...win the tournament however?

Serendipitous
06-21-2009, 03:02 PM
Wow thats big. That mean Nadal and Federer will be in same half of the draw at US OPEN?!


That would be awesome, though!

flying24
06-21-2009, 03:05 PM
Not possible right after Wimbledon. Even if Murray wins the title he will be just a fraction short despite gaining 3500 points on Nadal, and Federer has to win the tournament to pass Nadal anyway. However will probably happen this summer.

egn
06-21-2009, 03:12 PM
Not possible right after Wimbledon. Even if Murray wins the title he will be just a fraction short despite gaining 3500 points on Nadal, and Federer has to win the tournament to pass Nadal anyway. However will probably happen this summer.

Malakas did a post with all the calculations right after wimbledon it is impossible for Fed to be number 1 unless he wins though however Fed with a final and semifinal as long as Murray does not win or I think it is final even if Murray wins becomes number 1 by august when the olympic points drop. So as long as Fed has a strong showing at wimbledon he is pretty much guaranteed his number 1 I don't know I have to dig up the post but malakas did the calculations.

Badger
06-21-2009, 04:25 PM
Really depends on when he comes back.

フェデラー
06-21-2009, 04:34 PM
Well lets say Fed wins sw19, Murray gets to finals, Nadal could drop to no. 4 if Djoko gets to Semi's/

Fedgasm
06-21-2009, 04:36 PM
It really is a shame to see him drop in the rankings just because he isn't playing Wimbledon. It is just the demanding style of play he brings every match.

tennis_hand
06-21-2009, 05:42 PM
It really is a shame to see him drop in the rankings just because he isn't playing Wimbledon. It is just the demanding style of play he brings every match.

no. also because he lost in FO.

ChanceEncounter
06-21-2009, 05:45 PM
Yeah, back-to-back bad/no showings in grand slams did him in, especially when Nadal had so many points to defend. It's conceivable that Nadal would be the 3rd seed in the US Open.

Hrandyrko
06-21-2009, 06:28 PM
This is going to be great! Seeing Federer just haul *** while Nadal is gone!

Shaolin
06-21-2009, 06:30 PM
Gotta love that Fedgasm avatar.

Feņa14
06-21-2009, 06:43 PM
I think it's great that we can talk about this kind of thing happening. In the recent past the rankings haven't really been up for grabs at the top of the game, now we have a top 3 who are all really fighting for the number one ranking, with Djokovic not far behind either.

I remember the last time we had something similar was with Roddick, Federer and Ferrero at the end of 2003, it was pretty exciting to know that the number 3 player was only one big tournament away from getting to the top.

Fandango
06-21-2009, 06:44 PM
So fed just needs to get to the semis to get number 1 rank back?

Fedgasm
06-21-2009, 06:50 PM
no. also because he lost in FO.

Yes of course. Listen I'm a Federer fan so this is a nice thing for me, but I don't like to see a player not be able to defend 1400 points.

egn
06-21-2009, 06:55 PM
Here's an update of my "number 1 predictions" after Rafa's withdrawal.

As a summary :

If Federer wins Wimbledon, he will be number 1 on the day after Wimbledon.
Else Nadal will still be number 1 at that moment.
If Murray wins Wimbledon, he will be number 1 on the 20th of july
... but if Federer reaches the semifinal, Murray will lose his number 1 to Federer on the 3rd of august.
If Federer reaches the semifinal and Murray doesn't win Wimbledon, Federer will be number 1 on the 27th of july.

If Federer reaches the quarterfinal and Murray doesn't win Wimbledon, Federer will be number 1 on the 3rd of August.
The only way for Nadal to keep his number 1 until at least the 10th of august would be that Federer loses before the quarterfinal and Murray doesn't win Wimbledon. But even in that case, he would have to reach at least the final in Montreal to keep his number 1 on the 17th of august as he will lose his 800 points from the olympic games (Federer will lose 200 points from the olympics)

Djokovic cannot be number 1 before Montreal anyway



Here are some precisions and detailed calculations :

For the 6th of july right after Wimbledon the points so far (taking out last year's Wimbledon) are :

Nadal 10735
Federer 9220
Murray 8730
Djokovic 7790

Then it's impossible for Murray (or Djokovic) to be number 1 right after Wimbledon

Then on the 20th of july Murray will get his points from the Queens at last, as he will lose his zero-penalty for not taking part in Indianapolis last year (Murray ==> 8730 + 250 = 8980 points):

then if he wins Wimbledon, Murray will be number 1 on the 20th of july

Then on the 27th of july the points in Toronto last year will fall down : so far it would be :

Nadal 9735 (=10735-1000 ... +Davis Cup ?)
Federer 9210 (=9220-10 ... + Wimbledon)
Murray 8530 (=8980-450 ... + Wimbledon)
Djokovic 7630 (=7790-250+90 ... + Wimbledon)

Then on the 3rd of august the points in Cincinnatti last year will fall down : so far it would be :

Nadal 9285 (=10735-1000-450 ... +Davis Cup?)
Federer 9060 (=9220-10-150 ... + Wimbledon)
Murray 7530 (=8980-450-1000 ... + Wimbledon)
Djokovic 7020 (=7790-250-700+90+90... + Wimbledon)

At this moment both Federer and Murray could be number 1, Djokovic still couldn't,

but

to keep his number 1 on the 3rd of august, Murray would have to hope that Federer didn't reach the semifinal in Wimbledon

Next event would be Montreal (olympic games last year falling down).



Here is the info on stuff involving the rankings I am not sure but you can probably get if Nadal can fall to 3 but it won't be right after wimbledon looks like it will have to happen during summer hardcourts

blackfrido
06-21-2009, 06:58 PM
Is this possible?

I hope so!

T1000
06-21-2009, 07:00 PM
Nadal is out and Murray and Fed can gain a ton of points.

egn
06-21-2009, 07:05 PM
Well lets say Fed wins sw19, Murray gets to finals, Nadal could drop to no. 4 if Djoko gets to Semi's/

No that is actually quite out of the question.

If Fed wins, Murray finals and Djoko semis Nadal will still be number 2 this is how the points will trickle down the day after wimbledon

Fed 11220
Nadal 10745
Murray 9930
Djoker 8610

Than July 20th

Fed 11220
Nadal 10745
Murray 10180
Djoker 8610

Than the following week toronto falls off and it is

Fed 11210
Nadal 9745
Murray 9730
Djoker 8450

than the following week montreal falls off

Fed 11060
Nadal 9295
Murray 8730
Djoker 7840

Than the olympics fall as well but summer hardcourts begin so whatever they earn that week will be added to the rankings so basically
Fed 10860 + Montreal Result
Murray 8730 + Montreal Result
Nadal 8490 + Montreal Result
Djoker 7430 + Montreal Result

So it is impossible for Nadal to even be close to 4 by montreal...however I am not so sure about Djoker's I was using malakas guidelines and according to him the two semifinals he has at Mariselle and Sydney will go into his ranking if that is not the case he is 180 less but either way still number 4. Nadal is very safe until summer hardcourts begin if your scenario is to happen and is still in good striking range of Murray. This also shows how easy it is for Fed to put himself up in the rankings in the summer even if he does not win wimby and say only gets a semifinal he has so few points that a runner up/semi or a win and a decent showing could easily boost his ranking.

Fixed now those should be right.

フェデラー
06-21-2009, 08:52 PM
1000 points is kind of close. Thats one ATP 1000 tournament, or two 500's etc. But then again Djoko would have to win and he isnt accustomed to that

egn
06-21-2009, 08:54 PM
1000 points is kind of close. Thats one ATP 1000 tournament, or two 500's etc. But then again Djoko would have to win and he isnt accustomed to that

and Nadal would have to get 0 in those tournaments. Since they are both Master Series and we assume Nadal will be back by then that seems highly unlikely we will see though.

malakas
06-21-2009, 09:02 PM
1000 points is kind of close. Thats one ATP 1000 tournament, or two 500's etc. But then again Djoko would have to win and he isnt accustomed to that

no.Because their points from last years tournament will fall off,and also nadal will participate too.But it's pretty close.

just a clarification,these are NOT my calculations.Duong from mtf should get the credit.

joeri888
06-21-2009, 10:09 PM
Any calculations of how many points the top 4 have taken in 2009? Sort of 'race'-style?

boojay
06-21-2009, 11:09 PM
Nadal will fall to 3 this year, 4 and lower next year.

Lobber
06-22-2009, 12:07 AM
Any calculations of how many points the top 4 have taken in 2009? Sort of 'race'-style?

Nadal - 6885
Federer - 5460
Djokovic - 3870
Murray -3780

This includes all of their points this year, some of these are currently non-countable as last years points are better.

Lobber
06-22-2009, 12:11 AM
No that is actually quite out of the question.

If Fed wins, Murray finals and Djoko semis Nadal will still be number 2 this is how the points will trickle down the day after wimbledon

Fed 11220
Nadal 10745
Murray 10730
Djoker 8610


You've said Fed win, Murray final, but given them both 2000 points, need to take 800 off Murray's for this scenario and then follow it through. I think the biggest problem for Nadal would be Murray winning and Fed being the losing finalist, would make them all close.

This would definitely favor Fed, as he has the fewest points (by quite a way) to defend in the run-up to the US Open.

vive le beau jeu !
06-22-2009, 12:12 AM
Is this possible?
not straight after wimbledon, we will have to wait a bit for that...
http://i42.tinypic.com/68d468.jpg
from: http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2009/06/Shark-Bites-Battle-For-No-1.aspx

Leublu tennis
06-22-2009, 12:15 AM
Nadal - 6885
Federer - 5460
Djokovic - 3870
Murray -3780

This includes all of their points this year, some of these are currently non-countable as last years points are better.So this is simply a total of points won so far this year?

Lobber
06-22-2009, 12:21 AM
So this is simply a total of points won so far this year?

Yes, that's right

Leublu tennis
06-22-2009, 12:56 AM
Is this possible?
The answer is yes. The real question is when?

egn
06-22-2009, 05:59 AM
You've said Fed win, Murray final, but given them both 2000 points, need to take 800 off Murray's for this scenario and then follow it through. I think the biggest problem for Nadal would be Murray winning and Fed being the losing finalist, would make them all close.

This would definitely favor Fed, as he has the fewest points (by quite a way) to defend in the run-up to the US Open.

thank you i did not pay attention to that my bad.

egn
06-22-2009, 06:05 AM
The answer is yes. The real question is when?

If Murray wins and Fed finals I believe it can happen by as early as the end of july
Nadal 10745
Murray 10730
Fed 10420

those will be the points after wimbledon Murray passes him when gets his 250 and than Fed passes both when summer hardcourts drop off and I believe Murray than has the 2 spot. So it can happen within a month after wimbledon.

galactico
06-22-2009, 07:52 AM
im certainly no nadal fan, but i think that the rankings are ****ed up. Murray with 0 slams ahead of nadal with 6.

to get into the top 5, you really should have to win a slam, or they should change the rankings on the amount of slams won. that would be cool

egn
06-22-2009, 08:51 AM
im certainly no nadal fan, but i think that the rankings are ****ed up. Murray with 0 slams ahead of nadal with 6.

to get into the top 5, you really should have to win a slam, or they should change the rankings on the amount of slams won. that would be cool

So Federer could basically stay in pro tennis than for 50 years and be number 1. What the hell according to your system Rod Laver or Borg could come back and grab number 2, what do you do with Sampras if he decides to come backslap him tied for number 1. I agree top spots with no slam winners are rough but who the hell would be the top 5 right now, Fed, Nadal, Roddick, Hewitt and Safin when clearly Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro etc. are all playing better than Hewitt and Safin and on par or better than Roddick. I think slams need a bit of more weight but frankly if you only win a slam but play like crap all year (see Thomas Johansson 2002 or Marat Safin 2005) you don't deserve a top 5 spot and that is case and point.

galactico
06-22-2009, 08:56 AM
So Federer could basically stay in pro tennis than for 50 years and be number 1. What the hell according to your system Rod Laver or Borg could come back and grab number 2, what do you do with Sampras if he decides to come backslap him tied for number 1. I agree top spots with no slam winners are rough but who the hell would be the top 5 right now, Fed, Nadal, Roddick, Hewitt and Safin when clearly Djokovic, Murray, Tsonga, Del Potro etc. are all playing better than Hewitt and Safin and on par or better than Roddick. I think slams need a bit of more weight but frankly if you only win a slam but play like crap all year (see Thomas Johansson 2002 or Marat Safin 2005) you don't deserve a top 5 spot and that is case and point.

in tennis, slams mean everything, but you could say the amount of slams won in the last season, in this case, a season and a half