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View Full Version : Chances Nadal drop to #3 by the US Open?


Andy G
08-09-2009, 02:38 AM
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

maximo
08-09-2009, 02:40 AM
If Murray goes one round further than Nadal in Montreal, he will be #2.

mandy01
08-09-2009, 02:41 AM
I dont think so..Nadal has been closer than that to no 3 before..I dont think he will go there too soon.

dragonfire
08-09-2009, 02:43 AM
lol, murray getting to number 2 without a slam, i say fair play.

Spider
08-09-2009, 02:46 AM
lol, murray getting to number 2 without a slam, i say fair play.

It is not Murray's fault that Nadal can't keep his knees in tact.

dragonfire
08-09-2009, 02:52 AM
It is not Murray's fault that Nadal can't keep his knees in tact.

i didn't say it wasn't, i admire murray for getting so high in the rankings without winning a slam. Call in the murray phenomenon

Spider
08-09-2009, 02:53 AM
Anyway US open is a long time ahead, in fact, Murray will displace Nadal next week itself and become your new world number two. :)

settolove
08-09-2009, 02:54 AM
OMG the UK Media is going to be unbearable, maybe I should book my holidays.

Andy G
08-09-2009, 02:56 AM
i didn't say it wasn't, i admire murray for getting so high in the rankings without winning a slam. Call in the murray phenomenon

the Murray Phenomenon? Thats funny, since Lendl made it all the way to #1 without a slam. As a matter of fact he was #1 from Feb '83 all the way until FO '84 for his 1st slam win. So maybe its not so much a murray thing.

batz
08-09-2009, 02:56 AM
If Murray goes one round further than Nadal in Montreal, he will be #2.

If only. The points gap between and R2 exit and an R3 exit is not 240 (the number of points more than Nadal that Murray needs to make at Montreal to be number 2 on 17th August).

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 02:59 AM
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250
How much will Federer lose? Cant be that much..?

Spider
08-09-2009, 03:00 AM
Boy! I hope it's Ferrer who is Rafa's first round opponent, then Nadal will be packing his bags for Cincinatti and Murray can take over the position more comfortably. :)

batz
08-09-2009, 03:00 AM
the Murray Phenomenon? Thats funny, since Lendl made it all the way to #1 without a slam. As a matter of fact he was #1 from Feb '83 all the way until FO '84 for his 1st slam win. So maybe its not so much a murray thing.

Not to mention Rios making number 1 without winning a slam, or Haas making number 2 without even making a slam final.

batz
08-09-2009, 03:01 AM
How much will Federer lose? Cant be that much..?

I think it's 200 points.

mandy01
08-09-2009, 03:01 AM
How much will Federer lose? Cant be that much..?

I think its
10 from Montreal.
30 from Cincy
200 from Olympics and
2000 from USO.

mandy01
08-09-2009, 03:02 AM
The USO will be the major factor in determining who stands where in the rankings..

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 03:03 AM
the Murray Phenomenon? Thats funny, since Lendl made it all the way to #1 without a slam. As a matter of fact he was #1 from Feb '83 all the way until FO '84 for his 1st slam win. So maybe its not so much a murray thing.
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

Spider
08-09-2009, 03:06 AM
What is with the "who deserves the ranking" argument? Like I said, Murray has been a really consistent player for almost one year now and the rankings clearly reflect what is happening.

And besides Murray has performed better than Nadal in the last two slams (for those who think Murray doesn't deserve his new number two position, when he gets it).

Andy G
08-09-2009, 03:06 AM
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

I wasn't trying to compare them, just making the point that slams don't need to be won to advance up in the rankings.

batz
08-09-2009, 03:08 AM
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

Who is comparing Murray to Lendl? Using Lendl as an example of a player who made the upper echelons of the rankings without winning a slam is not the same thing as saying 'Murray is as good as Lendl'. It's not even close.

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 03:10 AM
I wasn't trying to compare them, just making the point that slams don't need to be won to advance up in the rankings.
No, it looks better if u have won a slam but if you are making SF and F consistently then you can desrve to be no1. However if we quickly look at the womens side i do not think Safina deserves to be the no1.

P_Agony
08-09-2009, 03:14 AM
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

Yeah, but don't forget Murray has to defend Cincy too, so he might lose points as well as Rafa who has to defend the Rogers Cup.

The one who has the most points to gain until the US Open is Federer, who did squat last year both in Canada and Cincy.

Andy G
08-09-2009, 03:15 AM
No, it looks better if u have won a slam but if you are making SF and F consistently then you can desrve to be no1. However if we quickly look at the womens side i do not think Safina deserves to be the no1.

Why not. She has consistently advanced far enough in tourneys to earn a lot of points and defend them. More than any other current player, therefore she deserves the #1 spot. Should someone else get the top spot just because a lot of people "feel" that person belongs there? Or should we follow the rules and agree she deserves the spot because she earned it.

batz
08-09-2009, 03:22 AM
Yeah, but don't forget Murray has to defend Cincy too, so he might lose points as well as Rafa who has to defend the Rogers Cup.

The one who has the most points to gain until the US Open is Federer, who did squat last year both in Canada and Cincy.

Nope. last year's Cincy points are already off. The numbers the OP used are inclusive of this.

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 03:31 AM
Why not. She has consistently advanced far enough in tourneys to earn a lot of points and defend them. More than any other current player, therefore she deserves the #1 spot. Should someone else get the top spot just because a lot of people "feel" that person belongs there? Or should we follow the rules and agree she deserves the spot because she earned it.
yeah i know how the system works, she is the computer no1 but level-wise id say she is 3-4. What happened in Wimbledon is just not OK.

rafan
08-09-2009, 03:32 AM
Well I think we have to be prepared for anything. Nadal has always surprised people. Who would have thought he would lose the FO and then who would have thougth he could win the AO.

Roland
08-09-2009, 04:01 AM
I'm almost sure Murray takes the #2 before the open.
Will probably keep it til' the Master's Cup (at least) too.

Andy G
08-09-2009, 04:02 AM
yeah i know how the system works, she is the computer no1 but level-wise id say she is 3-4. What happened in Wimbledon is just not OK.

What you're saying doesn't make any sense. The 'computer' #1? This isn't college football. Thats how the BCS works, by assuming who is better. If the #2, 3, & 4 would advance and defend the way she does, then they wouldn't be 2, 3 &4. Each person is where they should be. Saying people didn't play this or that person or such, doesn't give them the credit for their performance. She is #1 for a reason, she advances and defends her points the best, she is the best overall.

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 04:08 AM
What you're saying doesn't make any sense. The 'computer' #1? This isn't college football. Thats how the BCS works, by assuming who is better. If the #2, 3, & 4 would advance and defend the way she does, then they wouldn't be 2, 3 &4. Each person is where they should be. Saying people didn't play this or that person or such, doesn't give them the credit for their performance. She is #1 for a reason, she advances and defends her points the best, she is the best overall.
I understand you, but lets take the Williams`s sisters, at this stage of their careers the are only interested in the GS, they are the best players around but will probably never become no1 again since they dont grind week in and week out. Safina is no1 because she plays a lot, even smaller tournaments,does it well, and have been able to defend her points this far.

Peters
08-09-2009, 04:10 AM
Yet again, some people are using the word 'deserving' of ranking positions. It's pointless.

Every player knows which tournaments provide certain quantities of ranking points and it's up to them how they collect those points. Whether it's all year round consistency, or a couple of GS wins and a few other decent finishes. It doesn't matter.

Everyone deserves their position in the rankings since their position can't be argued with. It's just simple maths.

If a player feels hard done by that another player is ahead of them despite a worse record in slams, it's up to them to rectify that by playing more tournaments.

It's a simple system.

CountryHillbilly
08-09-2009, 04:20 AM
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

So the bolded points are with Montreal, Cinci and Olympics dropped off?

Basically they are almost equal and Murray can easily overtake Nadal.

batz
08-09-2009, 04:30 AM
So the bolded points are with Montreal, Cinci and Olympics dropped off?

Basically they are almost equal and Murray can easily overtake Nadal.

That is correct. If Murray gets 240 points more than Rafa during Montreal and Cincy, then he takes the number 2 slot. But I'm sure Rafa will have plenty to say about it.

wyutani
08-09-2009, 04:31 AM
i think he will...cos of his knee, maybe jump down to 4th mate'..

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 04:41 AM
Well, Lendl deserved that he was so consistent week in week out. And REALLY, we should NOT compare Murray to Lendl

And what has Murray been? Inconsistent? The dude has been the very definition of consistency since last year's Wimbledon.

rafan
08-09-2009, 04:53 AM
I didn't realise he was playing in the doubles as well

dropserve
08-09-2009, 04:53 AM
Murray will be No2 if:

-Murray wins canada

-Murray finalist, Nadal in semis (in that case he overtakes nadal by 5 points)

-Murray in semis, Nadal in 3rd round

rafan
08-09-2009, 04:57 AM
And what has Murray been? Inconsistent? The dude has been the very definition of consistency since last year's Wimbledon.

Trouble is he is so frustrating. I don't know if it is all the hype and expectation that the press give him here in the UK but you feel he could deliver to the very end. When he is playing well he is there amongst the top but then something happens. If only he could carry his game through and win one slam it would give him the confidence he needs

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:01 AM
Trouble is he is so frustrating. I don't know if it is all the hype and expectation that the press give him here in the UK but you feel he could deliver to the very end. When he is playing well he is there amongst the top but then something happens. If only he could carry his game through and win one slam it would give him the confidence he needs

That's what I feel, too. I think it's all about getting the first one and relieving the pressure. It would free him up to play how he wants at the business end of the slams.

maximo
08-09-2009, 05:05 AM
Trouble is he is so frustrating. I don't know if it is all the hype and expectation that the press give him here in the UK but you feel he could deliver to the very end. When he is playing well he is there amongst the top but then something happens. If only he could carry his game through and win one slam it would give him the confidence he needs

I thought the hype only comes during Wimbledon and then goes away till next year. I thought Murray did well at the USO last year because no one expected much. You could see that he was anything but pushing in the tournament. I think that this year he's more confident and in my eyes easily one of the favorites to win.

thejoe
08-09-2009, 05:15 AM
I thought the hype only comes during Wimbledon and then goes away till next year. I thought Murray did well at the USO last year because no one expected much. You could see that he was anything but pushing in the tournament. I think that this year he's more confident and in my eyes easily one of the favorites to win.

I don't see how anyone can deny this. Murray has the game to win the US Open, no doubt. No one will want to play him, but to me, he still seems liable to being upset.

batz
08-09-2009, 05:24 AM
I don't see how anyone can deny this. Murray has the game to win the US Open, no doubt. No one will want to play him, but to me, he still seems liable to being upset.

Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.

All-rounder
08-09-2009, 05:29 AM
Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.
I think this year is his best chance to win it

maximo
08-09-2009, 05:31 AM
Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.

I pretty much think it's now or never regarding the USO.

All-rounder
08-09-2009, 05:32 AM
I pretty much think it's now or never regarding the USO.
Not now or never but this year is his best chance to win it

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:36 AM
I think this year is his best chance to win it

My hope is that he'll get Federer in the semi-final. I think he'll find it easier to beat Fed in a slam for the first time if it's in the semis, rather than the final. The thought of facing Federer in a slam final adds a lot of psychological baggage.

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:37 AM
I pretty much think it's now or never regarding the USO.

Nah, it's not even close to being at that stage. He's only 22, after all. He'll get there eventually. I'm certain of that. I just think the earlier he wins one, the more he'll win in future.

batz
08-09-2009, 05:38 AM
My hope is that he'll get Federer in the semi-final. I think he'll find it easier to beat Fed in a slam for the first time if it's in the semis, rather than the final. The thought of facing Federer in a slam final adds a lot of psychological baggage.

I agree with this, but if he makes number 2 before USO then it can't happen!

Maybe we should cheer for Rafa at Montreal and Cincy?:)

Spider
08-09-2009, 05:40 AM
Hahaha it's now or never regaring Murray winning the US open?

Come on guys, he is just 22 and has a long career ahead of him. If he doesn't win it this year, it only means our expectations from him need to be adjusted. I think he can dominate the sport and that will change on how the US open turns out this year.

I am very happy when Murray takes over as the new world number two in a couple of weeks. However, the only problem I see about that is he might have to face Federer at a slam final (should both make it) and that's one of the biggest challenges in sports today (beating Fed in a slam final), and doing that for winning your first slam, gets even more tougher. :(

But it could also mean Nadal facing Federer at the semi's and doing the dirty work for Murray. :twisted:. I am not sure what to expect out of Nadal but he seems to be the best person to derail the Fed express.

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:42 AM
I agree with this, but if he makes number 2 before USO then it can't happen!

Maybe we should cheer for Rafa at Montreal and Cincy?:)

Even better would be if Rafa took Fed out in the semis of the US Open!

Then again, maybe Murray will do to Fed what he has done to him in 3 set matches. :twisted:

All-rounder
08-09-2009, 05:44 AM
I agree with this, but if he makes number 2 before USO then it can't happen!

Maybe we should cheer for Rafa at Montreal and Cincy?:)
But think of it this way Federer and nadal may meetin in the semi final instead

batz
08-09-2009, 05:48 AM
Even better would be if Rafa took Fed out in the semis of the US Open!

Then again, maybe Murray will do to Fed what he has done to him in 3 set matches. :twisted:

I'm warming to this.

I'd really like it if Roger and Rafa had taken out Roddick and Verdasco in their respective quarters.:):twisted:

maximo
08-09-2009, 05:48 AM
Nah, it's not even close to being at that stage. He's only 22, after all. He'll get there eventually. I'm certain of that. I just think the earlier he wins one, the more he'll win in future.

I meant it more like it's the best time to win it with an injured Nadal and a Federer who he knows how to beat. :D

BTW, Murray becoming #2 would avoid getting to play Federer in the Semis. But if Nadal takes him out in the Semis that would be excellent!

Spider
08-09-2009, 05:48 AM
Even better would be if Rafa took Fed out in the semis of the US Open!

Then again, maybe Murray will do to Fed what he has done to him in 3 set matches. :twisted:

The only problem is Murray is too good on hard courts and he will take over the number two spot next week itself. So it will be Fed-Murray final (and not semi final):evil:

:wink:

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:50 AM
I'm warming to this.

I'd really like it if Roger and Rafa had taken out Roddick and Verdasco in their respective quarters.:):twisted:

Actually, I hope Murray gets matched with Roddick again. Some sweet revenge would be on the cards. On Roddick's home turf, no less. Murray would be fired up for that match.

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:52 AM
I meant it more like it's the best time to win it with an injured Nadal and a Federer who he knows how to beat. :D

BTW, Murray becoming #2 would avoid getting to play Federer in the Semis. But if Nadal takes him out in the Semis that would be excellent!

Murray might end up winning a slam once everyone has written him off. I thought this year was an incredible opportunity to win Wimbledon. As far as Wimbledon goes, this year may have been his best chance. I think he'll always be up there as a favourite for the USO, though.

Cyan
08-09-2009, 05:52 AM
My hope is that he'll get Federer in the semi-final. I think he'll find it easier to beat Fed in a slam for the first time if it's in the semis, rather than the final. The thought of facing Federer in a slam final adds a lot of psychological baggage.

That is the big problem... If Rafa drops to 3rd then it is impossible for Murray to play Fed before the final. And I agree it would be easier for Murray to beat Fed in the SF but in the final only one man can do it... Fed is a different animal in slam finals only another special player can have the fortitude to beat him in finals. So Murray becoming number 2 is actually a disadvantage for him since he won't be beating Fed in slam finals anytime soon... Actually Murray has never beaten Fed in a final not even in a mm final... All of Murray's wins came before the finals...

Andy G
08-09-2009, 05:53 AM
i see murray taking over nadal after rogers cup. then the us open will be a repeat of last year. murray and fed final, fed wins.

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:55 AM
That is the big problem... If Rafa drops to 3rd then it is impossible for Murray to play Fed before the final. And I agree it would be easier for Murray or other players to beat Fed in the SF but in the final only one man can do it... Fed is a different animal in slam finals only another special player can have the fortitude to beat him in final. So Murray becoming numbr is ac tually a disadvantage since he won't be beating Fed in slam final anytime soon...

I'm only voicing my own doubts. The reality is that Murray has Fed's number on HCs. If it becomes a trend that Federer beats Murray in the slams, I'll revise my opinion. I think people are reading a lot into one match, though. I include myself in that, since last year's final planted a few doubts.

Spider
08-09-2009, 05:57 AM
That is the big problem... If Rafa drops to 3rd then it is impossible for Murray to play Fed before the final. And I agree it would be easier for Murray or other players to beat Fed in the SF but in the final only one man can do it... Fed is a different animal in slam finals only another special player can have the fortitude to beat him in finals. So Murray becoming number 2 is actually a disadvantage for him since he won't be beating Fed in slam finals anytime soon... Actually Murray has never beaten Fed in a final not even in a mm final...

What you say is absolutely true but if Murray (or anyone for that matter) has to win a slam, he has to go through to Federer (that guy has been in what 22 consecutive semi's?). So there doesn't seem to be any option to him.

But I like the idea of Nadal facing Federer in the semi's on a more regular basis :twisted:

Clydey2times
08-09-2009, 05:57 AM
That is the big problem... If Rafa drops to 3rd then it is impossible for Murray to play Fed before the final. And I agree it would be easier for Murray to beat Fed in the SF but in the final only one man can do it... Fed is a different animal in slam finals only another special player can have the fortitude to beat him in finals. So Murray becoming number 2 is actually a disadvantage for him since he won't be beating Fed in slam finals anytime soon... Actually Murray has never beaten Fed in a final not even in a mm final... All of Murray's wins came before the finals...

They have only played in 2 finals. The first one was in 2005, about 4 months after Murray turned pro. I don't think anything can be read into that.

Murray has beaten him in much bigger matches than the Bangkok final. He's beaten him in 2 MS semis, the Doha semi, and he knocked him out of TMC. He was also 1 of only 2 players to beat Fed in 2006. Rafa was the other one, obviously.

Cyan
08-09-2009, 06:00 AM
I meant it more like it's the best time to win it with an injured Nadal and a Federer who he knows how to beat. :D

BTW, Murray becoming #2 would avoid getting to play Federer in the Semis. But if Nadal takes him out in the Semis that would be excellent!

It' been a long time since a player beat Fed at a slam but didn't win that slam(Guga FO 2004). If you want to win a slam in this era you have to be able to beat Fed whether that is in the SF or F. Since AO 2005 whoever beats Fed at a slam wins it. It's been a streak of more than 4 yrs...

Cyan
08-09-2009, 06:04 AM
What you say is absolutely true but if Murray (or anyone for that matter) has to win a slam, he has to go through to Federer (that guy has been in what 22 consecutive semi's?). So there doesn't seem to be any option to him.

But I like the idea of Nadal facing Federer in the semi's on a more regular basis :twisted:

For Nadal to reach the SF of a slam he has to be playing great tennis and be very fit and like I said in my previous post if you are good enough to beat Fed at a slam, you win that slam. Has been happening for more than 4 yrs. and I don't see that streak changing anytime soon.

Cyan
08-09-2009, 06:09 AM
Not just to you mate. As long as that 1st slam eludes him, that's something that will stick.

As Clydey and Rafan say above, that first slam is the unlocking key. I think Murray has maybe 4 - 6 slams in him. But the longer he goes without one, the harder it will get to win one.

I can see Murray winning like 4 slams. He will definetely win more slams than Nole.

jonnythan
08-09-2009, 06:17 AM
i didn't say it wasn't, i admire murray for getting so high in the rankings without winning a slam. Call in the murray phenomenon

Who was the last guy not named Federer or Nadal to win a slam?

So if one of those guys stops playing for a while, it makes sense for someone who hasn't won a slam to move to #2.

FredMurray
08-09-2009, 06:39 AM
It is very likely, that Murray and Nadal will both not be in federer's half of the draw, regardless of what happens.

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 06:48 AM
I can see Murray winning like 4 slams. He will definetely win more slams than Nole.
I have to say, your opinions and thoughts about the top-players are very very reasonable coming from a Nadal-fan, props to u!:)

GPG
08-09-2009, 06:50 AM
I've predicted Nadal to lose to JM Del Potro in QF and Murray to lose in SF, so yes, my guess is that Nadal WILL drop to number 3. Right now their point diference is just reduced to 25 points (Canada and Cincy points from last year already dropped)

maximo
08-09-2009, 06:53 AM
I have to say, your opinions and thoughts about the top-players are very very reasonable coming from a Nadal-fan, props to u!:)

Since when were Nadal fans bad???

They have always been good posters.

NamRanger
08-09-2009, 06:59 AM
Since when were Nadal fans bad???

They have always been good posters.



Um, not trying to criticize you or anything, but...




http://raoworld.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/double-facepalm.jpg

maximo
08-09-2009, 07:05 AM
Um, not trying to criticize you or anything, but...

Whatever you say. :roll:

Still haven't posted the evidence to prove Drak wrong i see...

cknobman
08-09-2009, 07:06 AM
Id say chances are pretty good. Murray is in a great position right now. Points dropping big time for Nadal plus hes been on the bench for over 2 months so a serious lack of match time. I really hope Nadal gets back into it by the USO but I fully expect Montreal to be a warmup for both Nadal and Fed so it wouldnt surprise me to see either/both of them to go out before/in the quarters.

TheMagicianOfPrecision
08-09-2009, 07:07 AM
Since when were Nadal fans bad???

They have always been good posters.
Based on my own experience with Nadal-fans, Cyan is a good poster, very objective. Something lots of Nadal-fans fail at.

NamRanger
08-09-2009, 07:10 AM
Whatever you say. :roll:

Still haven't posted the evidence to prove Drak wrong i see...



What, common sense doesn't suffice?

Aabye
08-09-2009, 07:12 AM
I wouldn't be surprised if Rafa drops to #3 before the USO, which means the USO will have one of the most interesting draws in at least half a decade. Their site will probably crash during the live draw.

maximo
08-09-2009, 07:13 AM
What, common sense doesn't suffice?

Hey, you're the one who acted all cocky and just laughed at people who disagreed with Drakulie.

I guess you prefer not to say anything as you would simply upset poor Drak...

Blinkism
08-09-2009, 07:14 AM
Chances of Nadal getting to #3 are pretty big, but when he gets back to his form it shouldn't be too long before he's #2 or #1 again.

#3 just isn't the right spot for Nadal and we all know it.

Spider
08-09-2009, 07:17 AM
For Nadal to reach the SF of a slam he has to be playing great tennis and be very fit and like I said in my previous post if you are good enough to beat Fed at a slam, you win that slam. Has been happening for more than 4 yrs. and I don't see that streak changing anytime soon.

I know, that's what's happening for many years now and that proves how tough it is to beat Federer (and how great Nadal is to be the only player capable of doing so).

Now lets take this hypothetical scenario of Nadal beating Federer in the semi final, if that were to happen, it would take Nadal 5 sets (and nothing less than that) and considering US open has a saturday semi final, I would definitely give Murray the tag as the favorite the next day (assuming Murray makes the final).

So finally there could be a possibility that a player wins a slam without beating Federer (however less likely that seems). :)

NamRanger
08-09-2009, 07:17 AM
Hey, you're the one who acted all cocky and just laughed at people who disagreed with Drakulie.

I guess you prefer not to say anything as you would simply upset poor Drak...




Absolutely true, because Drak can't take any criticism at all :rolleyes:

Aabye
08-09-2009, 07:19 AM
Chances of Nadal getting to #3 are pretty big, but when he gets back to his form it shouldn't be too long before he's #2 or #1 again.

#3 just isn't the right spot for Nadal and we all know it.

That's why, whereever he lands in the draw, he has to do really well at the USO

Spider
08-09-2009, 07:20 AM
Chances of Nadal getting to #3 are pretty big, but when he gets back to his form it shouldn't be too long before he's #2 or #1 again.

#3 just isn't the right spot for Nadal and we all know it.

If Nadal gets the number 3 spot, thats exactly what he deserves. That means Murray and Federer were good enough to maintain their fitness level which is the most important thing in sports, and if you can't do that, you don't deserve anything. :)

Blinkism
08-09-2009, 07:23 AM
If Nadal gets the number 3 spot, thats exactly what he deserves. That means Murray and Federer were good enough to maintain their fitness level which is the most important thing in sports, and if you can't do that, you don't deserve anything. :)

I get that. Nadal only deserves his #2 and/or #1 spot back if he can get back to his good form and stay healthy.

It's just going to be strange to see him at #3 when it's been what seems like ages since he's not been in the top 2

Spider
08-09-2009, 07:32 AM
I get that. Nadal only deserves his #2 and/or #1 spot back if he can get back to his good form and stay healthy.

It's just going to be strange to see him at #3 when it's been what seems like ages since he's not been in the top 2

Yeah, thats true. It just proves how much competition exists today that within 2 months a player can go from being the best player (with lots of points ahead of the field) to being the third best player.

Nadalfan89
08-09-2009, 08:34 AM
Yeah, thats true. It just proves how much competition exists today that within 2 months a player can go from being the best player (with lots of points ahead of the field) to being the third best player.

...That has nothing to do with the competition. Federer might be better than Nadal (debatable) but Murray doesn't even have a slam.

Nadal lost 2000 points be default for not showing up to Wimbledon. Let's not chalk that up as a victory for Murray:rolleyes:

wangs78
08-09-2009, 08:42 AM
i didn't say it wasn't, i admire murray for getting so high in the rankings without winning a slam. Call in the murray phenomenon

Actually, it should be called the Safina phenomenon.

bolo
08-09-2009, 08:51 AM
Nadal will lose 800 points from last years olympics on August 17th. Murray will only lose 10. That will put Nadal only 235 points ahead of Murray. Depending on their performaces between now and the US Open. Nadal could be the #3 seed. I think there is a good chance for this, perhaps not a likely chance, but a good chance. Anyone else?

Current points, Nadal:9285, Murray:8260

After drop, Nadal: 8485, Murray:8250

Murray will make the SF at least, at which point it looks like a 50/50 versus federer. A 50/50 shot at the Final round, a round imo that basically guarantees him the #2 ranking because at that point he jumps from geting 340 points to 600 points. I see nadal having decent chances of losing to ferrrer, querrey or delpo, which means his MAX. points is 180 (one round less and it's down to 90 points)

Nadal's been an animal when challenged for his no. 2 ranking (hamburg 08 versus Djokovic, one of the greatest matches that I have seen). But he's usually only had to defend his position during the clay court season and it's a very different state of the union now.

If what you are saying is correct (235 point gap), say hello to the #3 ranking Tennis Player Nadal.

Aabye
08-09-2009, 09:39 AM
Murray will make the SF at least, at which point it looks like a 50/50 versus federer. A 50/50 shot at the Final round, a round imo that basically guarantees him the #2 ranking because at that point he jumps from geting 340 points to 600 points. I see nadal having decent chances of losing to ferrrer, querrey or delpo, which means his MAX. points is 180 (one round less and it's down to 90 points)

Nadal's been an animal when challenged for his no. 2 ranking (hamburg 08 versus Djokovic, one of the greatest matches that I have seen). But he's usually only had to defend his position during the clay court season and it's a very different state of the union now.

If what you are saying is correct (235 point gap), say hello to the #3 ranking Tennis Player Nadal.

My only questions is why are you so confident Murray will do so well? (I like the Scot and I do hope he does alright, just curious)

batz
08-09-2009, 09:45 AM
My only questions is why are you so confident Murray will do so well? (I like the Scot and I do hope he does alright, just curious)

If I may give you my tuppence worth:

He's won 3, and made final in 4 of the last 5 hardcourt MS and he's 23-1 in hardcourt 3 set matches this season. He has the by far the best 3 set hardcourt record of any player over the last 12 months. He is 5-1 v the top 5 this season and 10 -1 over the last 12 months.

I'd say that is some pretty legitimate grounds for confidence.

Aabye
08-09-2009, 09:50 AM
If I may give you my tuppence worth:

He's won 3, and made final in 4 of the last 5 hardcourt MS and he's 23-1 in hardcourt 3 set matches this season. He has the by far the best 3 set hardcourt record of any player over the last 12 months.

I'd say that is some pretty legitimate grounds for confidence.

But like Federer, he hasn't played since Wimbledon. And we know that he was (or at least should have been) confident going into both Wimbledon and the AO this year, but for whatever reason he didn't perform as well as he perhaps should have.

weallwegot
08-09-2009, 09:52 AM
Murray won't do well this week :)

maximo
08-09-2009, 09:53 AM
Murray won't do well this week :)

Federer won't do well this week.

batz
08-09-2009, 09:54 AM
But like Federer, he hasn't played since Wimbledon. And we know that he was (or at least should have been) confident going into both Wimbledon and the AO this year, but for whatever reason he didn't perform as well as he perhaps should have.

I accept all of that. But Murray had a similar amount of time off before IW and Miami and had a virus to boot - but he still made back to back finals and won one of them.

I'm not saying it's guaranteed that Murray will do well in the next 2 MS, but the record suggests he might.

weallwegot
08-09-2009, 09:55 AM
Federer has nothing to lose now, hes just going to be cruising through the ATP now, win or lose, it won't effect him as much.

zagor
08-09-2009, 10:26 AM
Actually, it should be called the Safina phenomenon.

Yeah but Safina is #1,Murray is #3 with a good chance to get #2.It's hardly anything out of the ordinary for a #2 or #3 to not have a slam title that year(or even a slam final),#1 without a slam is just an entirely different matter.

Michael Stich for example was #2 in 1993 with SF at AO and QF at Wimbledon but with 1st round exit at USO and 4th round exit at FO.

Gugafan
08-09-2009, 04:26 PM
But like Federer, he hasn't played since Wimbledon. And we know that he was (or at least should have been) confident going into both Wimbledon and the AO this year, but for whatever reason he didn't perform as well as he perhaps should have.

Murray is known to put in alot of hard work during practice. I doubt he will be rusty, despite the break after Wimbledon. Considering Nadal is coming back from injury, and Murray has been a beast in the HC masters series events, one would expect Murray to gain the no 2 spot (quite possibly before the US Open).