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View Full Version : Who will be the next player not named Nadal or Federer to win the French Open?


JennyS
10-19-2009, 07:35 PM
Since 2005 only two players other than Nadal and Federer have been in the French Open final. Who do you think will be the next player to win this event?

Vermillion
10-19-2009, 07:37 PM
ponyboy might

Agassifan
10-19-2009, 07:38 PM
Either Djokovic or Del Potro. I voted Del potro. It could happen within a couple of years IF RG uses the same surface as last year.

boredone3456
10-19-2009, 07:39 PM
Tough choice..I don't think it will be Novak or Murray, as of now I would say Delpo.

SourStraws
10-19-2009, 07:43 PM
DP or Davy

S.S.

Cup8489
10-19-2009, 07:49 PM
Either Djokovic or Del Potro. I voted Del potro. It could happen within a couple of years IF RG uses the same surface as last year.

what do you mean 'same surface as last year'

as far as i know, clay has been the same as clay forever, not just the last year.

jamesblakefan#1
10-19-2009, 07:53 PM
what do you mean 'same surface as last year'

as far as i know, clay has been the same as clay forever, not just the last year.

He probably means if conditions are as fast/dry as they were this year.

[d]ragon
10-19-2009, 07:58 PM
I vote Djoko because he's the next best player on clay after Nadal and Fed. He matches up pretty well against Nadal (the current king of clay); their match at Madrid this year was a great match. Plus he defeated Fed in Rome. Even though he lost in the 3rd round of FO, he made the Monte Carlo and Rome finals and semifinals in Madrid so I'd pick him if Fed and Nadal don't win

PCXL-Fan
10-19-2009, 08:01 PM
Man this is a tough one. I might guess Djokovic, Delpo, Davy or some other player not on our radar.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 08:08 PM
It will be Djokovic or Del Potro, or someone we dont know alot about now. Of the players we are aware of right now it would have to be Del Potro or Djokovic if anyone is going to do it among who we now know. It wont be Davydenko. He isnt the clay courter that he was from 2005-2007 anymore. If Davydenko wins any slams it will have to be on a hard court.

Feņa14
10-19-2009, 08:09 PM
I remember a thread from quite a while ago where the question was asked, who would be the first to beat Nadal in Paris?

I said del Potro at the time and he's improved considerably since then, so he would be the next one to win it for me.

8pNADAL
10-19-2009, 08:12 PM
no player on the tour today will win roland garros apart from nadal

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 08:13 PM
I remember a thread from quite a while ago where the question was asked, who would be the first to beat Nadal in Paris?

I said del Potro at the time and he's improved considerably since then, so he would be the next one to win it for me.

Del Potro has to prove:

1. He can handle the increased expectations after his first slam title. Too early to draw conclusions but still he has done really badly in his first 2 tournaments as a slam champion.

2. He is fit enough to handle 7 rounds at either the Australian Open or French Open in order to win. The U.S Open is the most physically taxing for some but things like the heat are not what they are at those other two venues which is more of a problem for him since he is so big unless he is great shape.

3. There are still some top players he hasnt proven himself sufficiently against. He has only beaten Murray once, only beaten Federer once, not yet beaten Djokovic. Granted Murray probably wont be much of a factor at the French in the near future if ever.

President of Serve/Volley
10-19-2009, 08:17 PM
Davydenko if he's not facing Federer...

jamesblakefan#1
10-19-2009, 08:36 PM
What's with the Davydenko hype so lately? He's good, but he's still yet to reach a slam final and hasn't been in a slam SF since 2007. I don't see this great resurgence for Davydenko that everyone else is seeing.

PCXL-Fan
10-19-2009, 08:37 PM
It will be Djokovic or Del Potro, or someone we dont know alot about now. Of the players we are aware of right now it would have to be Del Potro or Djokovic if anyone is going to do it among who we now know. It wont be Davydenko. He isnt the clay courter that he was from 2005-2007 anymore. If Davydenko wins any slams it will have to be on a hard court.

If the certain players go down or they are having a bad day and he's on a roll i could see him doing it.

quest01
10-19-2009, 08:39 PM
I got to go with Del Potro, he just came off winning the US Open beating Nadal and Federer back to back. Hes the next player to win the French if its not Fed Or Nadal.

Carsomyr
10-19-2009, 08:40 PM
no player on the tour today will win roland garros apart from nadal

Yep, because Nadal will never retire.

Feņa14
10-19-2009, 08:41 PM
Del Potro has to prove:

1. He can handle the increased expectations after his first slam title. Too early to draw conclusions but still he has done really badly in his first 2 tournaments as a slam champion.

2. He is fit enough to handle 7 rounds at either the Australian Open or French Open in order to win. The U.S Open is the most physically taxing for some but things like the heat are not what they are at those other two venues which is more of a problem for him since he is so big unless he is great shape.

3. There are still some top players he hasnt proven himself sufficiently against. He has only beaten Murray once, only beaten Federer once, not yet beaten Djokovic. Granted Murray probably wont be much of a factor at the French in the near future if ever.

All good points, it's hard to see anyone really grabbing the title instead of Federer or Nadal in Paris but I think del Potro has the best chance at the moment. There are players out there who have the weapons to do it (Soderling for instance) but I think del Potro's consistency is something that will help him alot, if he's in the right state of mind and doesn't have too many long matches, as you say.

Let's face it, if someone is to wrestle the title from Federer or Nadal then they will need a bit of luck along the way.

PCXL-Fan
10-19-2009, 08:42 PM
What's with the Davydenko hype so lately? He's good, but he's still yet to reach a slam final and hasn't been in a slam SF since 2007. I don't see this great resurgence for Davydenko that everyone else is seeing.

Its not really about him being great. This is if Nadal and Federer are out. Who is left who is decent...

Djokovic and Delpo are reasonable choices. So are Monfils, Cilic and Davydonko too.

AJK1
10-19-2009, 08:57 PM
What about Soderling?

Ripster
10-19-2009, 09:06 PM
It will be Djokovic or Del Potro, or someone we dont know alot about now. Of the players we are aware of right now it would have to be Del Potro or Djokovic if anyone is going to do it among who we now know. It wont be Davydenko. He isnt the clay courter that he was from 2005-2007 anymore. If Davydenko wins any slams it will have to be on a hard court.

I agree Novak or Del Potro. I'm going with Del Potro and I'm basing that on this years French where he ALMOST beat Federer in the semis and, had he won that match, I think would have won the tournament.

Novak had a disappointing French. He needs to skip one of Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid or his hometown tournament in Belgrade. Four warm-up clay court tournaments in that time span is too much.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 09:28 PM
If the certain players go down or they are having a bad day and he's on a roll i could see him doing it.

Like I said Davydenko is not the same clay courter he was in 2005-2007. On hard courts he is still as good or better than ever, but on clay he has regressed. Based on his performances on clay these last couple years he isnt likely to be there at the end even if certain players go down or have a bad day. His last 2 French Opens he has lost to a past his prime Ljubicic and was slaughtered by Soderling this year (even Gonzo gave Soderling a much tougher time).

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 09:31 PM
I agree Novak or Del Potro. I'm going with Del Potro and I'm basing that on this years French where he ALMOST beat Federer in the semis and, had he won that match, I think would have won the tournament.

Novak had a disappointing French. He needs to skip one of Monte Carlo, Rome, Madrid or his hometown tournament in Belgrade. Four warm-up clay court tournaments in that time span is too much.

I agree with all you said. I definitely agree Novak needs to skip atleast 1 tournament on his current clay court schedule to maximize his chances at the French. I actually think Nadal might even have to do the same from now on.

Novak's French Open this year had to be a major heartbreaker for him. I am sure he came in with huge expectations after nearly beating Nadal in both Monte Carlo and Madrid, and then as it turns out with Nadal going out he could have won the title since he had Federer's number a bit early in the year. To be spanked by Kohlschreiber was a shocking dissapointment.

Del Potro definitely would have won this years French had he won that match with Federer. He would straight setted Soderling in the final most likely.

Cesc Fabregas
10-19-2009, 09:36 PM
Novak Djokovic.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 09:39 PM
Novak Djokovic.

I hope you are right. I actually think the guy is underrated on this forum. Not just because he is one of my favorite current players but people talk about him having a bad year and put him down constantly, yet the guy is still #3 in the World ahead of Murray and Del Potro! The funny thing is the haters are even right to a certain degree, he isnt playing as well often times as he could/should and yet he is still ranked ahead of Murray and Del Potro both who are often hyped to the skies on this forum. Just imagine what he is capable of playing to his potential then.

Cesc Fabregas
10-19-2009, 09:42 PM
I hope you are right. I actually think the guy is underrated on this forum. Not just because he is one of my favorite current players but people talk about him having a bad year and put him down constantly, yet the guy is still #3 in the World ahead of Murray and Del Potro! The funny thing is the haters are even right to a certain degree, he isnt playing as well often times as he could/should and yet he is still ranked ahead of Murray and Del Potro both who are often hyped to the skies on this forum. Just imagine what he is capable of playing to his potential then.

He has the most upside imo, he has more firepower than Murray and is a better athlete than Del Potro.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 09:44 PM
He has the most upside imo, he has more firepower than Murray and is a better athlete than Del Potro.

I agree with that. In many ways he is the prototypical modern day champion player. Great serve, great return, powerful and consistent off both forehand and backhand, moves excellent, and can play great offense or defense. The things he doesnt do so well are not even all that important in todays one dimensional baseliners field. So really it is all about putting it together mentally and being fit enough for him.

DarthMaul
10-19-2009, 10:01 PM
Novak Djokovic

prattle128
10-19-2009, 10:11 PM
Verdasco! Can't wait.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 10:13 PM
Verdasco! Can't wait.

Mental midget Verdasco will never win a slam. I guess he has the weapons he could maybe eke out 1 or 2 game wise, but mentally he is the biggest cheesehead in the top 20 right now (and that is saying alot looking over all the names). Wanting him choke away all his opportunities each time he plays a top player has become embarassing viewing.

jamesblakefan#1
10-19-2009, 10:34 PM
Mental midget Verdasco will never win a slam. I guess he has the weapons he could maybe eke out 1 or 2 game wise, but mentally he is the biggest cheesehead in the top 20 right now (and that is saying alot looking over all the names). Wanting him choke away all his opportunities each time he plays a top player has become embarassing viewing.

Djokovic may be 2nd on that list. It takes mental toughness to win a slam, something Djokovic hasn't proven that he has. And no that's not a shot at the old retirement issue, he doesn't seem to have that killer instinct, that mental fortitude to want it in the big matches. The USO SF could have been a big match for him, but he seemed to gift it to Fed and was too complacent out there. Performances like that are why it's hard for me to see Novak winning a slam, especially one as mentally taxing as the French tends to be.

PCXL-Fan
10-19-2009, 10:40 PM
Now that his name has been mentioned (but NOT in the context of a potential alternative winner to Nad/Fed) I am very surprised nobody remembered to suggest Robin Solderling.

Final against Federer in 09 RO, and lost semi of 09 USO due to a bad start and an on fire Federer.

Solderling must be mentioned in this group along with Djokovic, Del Potro, Monfils, Cilic and the rest!

PCXL-Fan
10-19-2009, 10:49 PM
Djokovic may be 2nd on that list. It takes mental toughness to win a slam, something Djokovic hasn't proven that he has. And no that's not a shot at the old retirement issue, he doesn't seem to have that killer instinct, that mental fortitude to want it in the big matches. The USO SF could have been a big match for him, but he seemed to gift it to Fed and was too complacent out there. Performances like that are why it's hard for me to see Novak winning a slam, especially one as mentally taxing as the French tends to be.

IIRC In 2007 Djokovic was #1 oe #2 in tiebreak record. He seemed to fall off the charts. I remember before the 07 USO where he earned his Chokovich name he was considered one of the strongest mentally.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 11:28 PM
Soderling isnt even a clay courter by nature. His game is built for fast surfaces, and even on those he hasnt beaten any top player other than Davydenko at the U.S Open since the French. I think his FO run was a bit of an out of the blue thing and definitely wont happen again.

dropshot winner
10-19-2009, 11:34 PM
Djokovic.

I think he'd beat Del Potro 4 out of 5 times on clay.

grafselesfan
10-19-2009, 11:36 PM
Djokovic may be 2nd on that list. It takes mental toughness to win a slam, something Djokovic hasn't proven that he has. And no that's not a shot at the old retirement issue, he doesn't seem to have that killer instinct, that mental fortitude to want it in the big matches. The USO SF could have been a big match for him, but he seemed to gift it to Fed and was too complacent out there. Performances like that are why it's hard for me to see Novak winning a slam, especially one as mentally taxing as the French tends to be.

First off Djokovic was in very subpar form for his standards at the U.S Open and did extremely well to even make the semis, aided by some choking from Verdasco in an ugly quarterfinal match. He even struggled to beat an obscure American journeyman in the 3rd round. I dont recall hardly anyone thinking he had a chance vs Federer who seemed to be in blazing form and playing his best hard court tennis in a couple years atleast. Federer had also beaten Djokovic pretty easily in the Cincinnati final where Djokovic was playing much better than he was at the U.S Open. If Djokovic was playing better at the time or Federer less well I could see your point but on form that was the outcome to be expected barring a major surprise. Cesc and I are both Djokovic fans who dislike Federer and even we both said before that semifinal Djokovic didnt have a prayer of winning pretty much. In fact IMO Djokovic raised his game significantly up from prior to the semis to even make it fairly competitive with Federer, which in a tournament he was never in form to have a real shot of winning is one minor positive.

I do agree Djokovic isnt the mentally toughest player and he has confidence issues. However when he is on his game he is very capable of beating anyone on a given day on hard courts and clay. He has proven that quite a bit the last couple years, he is the only guy that really can even scare Nadal at his best on clay, Federer hasnt shown he can for a couple years atleast. He has had some extremely close tough losses which could have gone either way and would have given him a big boost. That Madrid semifinal vs Nadal this year, the Queens final vs Nadal last year, the Monte Carlo vs Nadal this year. Winning even 1 of those probably would have made a big difference for him.

The main thing to remember about the guy though is this. His critics say he is off form, he is playing too passively, he doesnt have his confidence fully right now. All this is actually true. Yet despite all that he is still ranked THIRD in the World. He is in many ways having a subpar year compared to 2007 and 2008, he is visibly not on his game, and mentally he isnt all there right now, yet despite this he is ranked ahead of Murray and Del Potro who are getting so much praise and talking up of their prospects. What does that tell you about the kind of force Djokovic is, and how you have to take him seriously, that arguably in a slump he is still ranked ahead of 2 of the main contenders amongst the current field.

jamesblakefan#1
10-20-2009, 05:01 AM
I think this year was Djokovic's best shot at winning the French, with Nadal going out early and Fed being very beatable the whole tournament. If he had somehow made the final to face Fed he would've been possibly the favorite. But he ran out of gas ultimately due to poor scheduling and lost. He had good form coming into the FO, but ran out of gas mentally and physically after that heartbreaking loss to Nadal in Madrid.

Moving forward I don't see Novak being able to make RG SF as easily as he has in past years. The clay court field seems to be improved as we move forward. And the fact that he can't seem to get past Fed or Nadal in slam matches is something that will continue to be a handicap for him mentally.

Again, getting back to the root of why I can't see Djokovic winning the French, he does not seem to have what it takes mentally at all. That's not something you can just gloss over and say oh well, especially when you're talking about a slam that can be as mentally taxing as the French. Mentally, I just don't see him having what it takes to beat Fed or Rafa at the FO.

And TBH, Nole's done well to reach #3, but still hasn't won a MS event this year, and his rise to #3 has been aided by Murray missing time due to injury. So I wouldn't use his rank to prove he's still the same Novak we saw win AO last year. He's definitely not showing the same form we saw from him the 1st half of last season and 2nd half of 2007. IMO he has to take his game back to that level or maybe even higher if he wants to win any slam again, let alone the French.

valiant
10-20-2009, 05:56 AM
Djokovic I think. May be a new kid we haven't seen yet.

egn
10-20-2009, 07:06 AM
I think this year was Djokovic's best shot at winning the French, with Nadal going out early and Fed being very beatable the whole tournament. If he had somehow made the final to face Fed he would've been possibly the favorite. But he ran out of gas ultimately due to poor scheduling and lost. He had good form coming into the FO, but ran out of gas mentally and physically after that heartbreaking loss to Nadal in Madrid.


You don't think his chances get better in two years per say. When Fed is most likely a non factor and Nadal is past his best. Djokovic should think positive his chance might have not even come yet, that was more or less Fed's chance then his chance. He has better chances next year honestly. Nadal is not defending anymore. Nadal is not going to be tagged the invincible man at RG anymore. Nadal has immense pressure to produce. Where is Novak's pressure? Not really there. Nobody is expecting much from Novak after his performance last year. Most people have written him off all ready. So what does he have to do but go up? Novak can definitely shock the world next year and win a French Open. I give it to him over Del Po just because Novak is naturally better on clay.

wyutani
10-20-2009, 07:11 AM
marat safin.

jamesblakefan#1
10-20-2009, 08:31 AM
You don't think his chances get better in two years per say. When Fed is most likely a non factor and Nadal is past his best. Djokovic should think positive his chance might have not even come yet, that was more or less Fed's chance then his chance. He has better chances next year honestly. Nadal is not defending anymore. Nadal is not going to be tagged the invincible man at RG anymore. Nadal has immense pressure to produce. Where is Novak's pressure? Not really there. Nobody is expecting much from Novak after his performance last year. Most people have written him off all ready. So what does he have to do but go up? Novak can definitely shock the world next year and win a French Open. I give it to him over Del Po just because Novak is naturally better on clay.

I don't see Novak progressing as of late, I see him regressing. No reason to think he'll even be in the top 5 in 2 years. I don't see the aggression in Djokovic's game anymore, I see him regressing. He's too passive out there, and I don't see him turning this around.

FedSampras1
10-20-2009, 06:52 PM
Wawrinka :)

President
10-20-2009, 06:57 PM
Del Potro; I think he can do to Nadal the same thing Soderling did, except even more effectively (taller and stronger with better movement on clay). He has already shown he can own Nadal on hardcourts, and as his SF shows he is quite a good clay-courter.

He already showed he has the potential to beat Federer on clay, and really probably should have won that SF.