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View Full Version : Race to Year End No.1 (Spoilers)


DragonBlaze
11-11-2009, 02:04 PM
Well, since Federer lost in the 2nd round in Paris, things get more interesting don't they?

Nadal can gain a lot of points in Paris and WTF. Same with Federer in the WTF I guess (he only won 1 match last year right?).

So can anyone play out the scenarios that could pan out. Is it possible for the No.1 ranking to be decided at the WTF, maybe it going down to a match between the 2 giants themselves (even though both are playing pretty un-giant like tennis for their standards at the moment).

Serendipitous
11-11-2009, 02:14 PM
Well, since Federer lost in the 2nd round in Paris, things get more interesting don't they?

Nadal can gain a lot of points in Paris and WTF. Same with Federer in the WTF I guess (he only won 1 match last year right?).

So can anyone play out the scenarios that could pan out. Is it possible for the No.1 ranking to be decided at the WTF, maybe it going down to a match between the 2 giants themselves (even though both are playing pretty un-giant like tennis for their standards at the moment).

Lol, wtf?!?!? :D

MrBen
11-11-2009, 02:29 PM
I doubt it considering that Nadal will probably be out early at Paris

OddJack
11-11-2009, 02:48 PM
Rodge barely lost any points since he was injured last year.

GustafsonFanatic
11-11-2009, 04:20 PM
Here is it for you:

1) Nadal can pick up 2500 points in Paris and YEC

2) Federer already has 200 from 2008 TMC and he can get 1100 more.

3) Federer is 1500 points ahead of Nadal, but after his points from TMC drop, he will be 1300 points ahead.

Nadal must reach at least the final of Paris and go past the group stage at WTF. He must do even more if Federer goes past the group stage... you work it out.

bladepdb
11-11-2009, 04:21 PM
WTF points go exclusively to the winner, 1500 points.

So in theory Nadal could end #1, yes, but he would have to win the whole thing. Judging by his match today, I'm sad that that's a distant possibility right now.

Blinkism
11-11-2009, 08:18 PM
delete post

roysid
11-11-2009, 08:53 PM
Here's the math, worked out;
__________________________________________________ ________________________________
Scenarios for Nadal to make #1 in the world in London based on results in Paris

Federer race points going into London: 10,150 (-0)


Nadal race points R16 in Paris : 8935 (-1215)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 1 Round Robin match


Nadal race points QF in Paris : 9025 (-1125)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 1 Round Robin match or Nadal makes final but Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points SF in Paris : 9205 (-945)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 2 Round Robin matches or Nadal makes final but Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points F in Paris : 9745 (-405)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer goes no further than semifinals, or Nadal makes finals in London and Federer doesn’t make semifinals, or Nadal makes semifinals and Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points W in Paris : 10,145 (-5)
Scenario: Nadal wins London and Federer makes final, Nadal makes final and Federer goes no further than semifinals, Nadal makes semifinals and Federer doesn’t make semifinals, Nadal and Federer both make semifinals but Nadal wins 1 more round robin match, neither Nadal nor Federer make the semifinals but Nadal wins 1 more round robin match


Also, if Nadal ends the season with only 5 points less than Federer (it's possible), then his first opportunity to overtake Federer in the rankings will be in 2010- in Doha; where Fed's defending 90 points and Rafa defending 45.
__________________________________________________ _______________

Comments: I don't think it's likely at all that Nadal will overtake Federer as #1 this year.

I'd say Nadal has a 15% chance of ending 2009 as #1, at the moment.

The only way we'd see a "battle for #1" in London would be if Nadal makes the final or wins in Paris.

Then it'd be possible that a matchup in the semifinals or finals of London between Nadal and Federer would determine who would end up #1 at the end of the season.
Blinkism,
I'm afraid you did mistakes in your math.

Only this years points going to London
Fed is 10140 before Paris and now 10150.

Nadal was 8845 before start of Paris. A win (1000 points) gets him to 9845. Still 305 points behind.

Similarly if he makes finals(600 pts), semis (360), QF(180). Points are different.

Blinkism
11-11-2009, 08:58 PM
Thanks for the heads-up roysid, a typo in the semifinals score messed it up. It's a little late so I didn't realize the mistake

This should be right?
__________________________________________________ ________________________________
Scenarios for Nadal to make #1 in the world in London based on results in Paris

Federer race points going into London: 10,150 (-0)


Nadal race points R16 in Paris : 8935 (-1215)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 1 Round Robin match


Nadal race points QF in Paris : 9025 (-1125)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 1 Round Robin match or Nadal makes final but Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points SF in Paris : 9205 (-945)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 2 Round Robin matches or Nadal makes final but Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points F in Paris : 9445 (-705)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer goes no further than semifinals (while losing atleast 1 match in round robin), or Nadal makes finals in London and Federer only wins 1 round robin match


Nadal race points W in Paris : 9845 (-305)
Scenario: Nadal wins London undefeated, regardless of Federer's results - he becomes #1 or Nadal beats Federer in the final but Federer lost 1 round robin match or Nadal makes final undefeated and Roger doesn't make final or Nadal makes final losing 1 match in round robin and Federer doesn't make semi's.

__________________________________________________ _______________

Comments: I don't think it's likely at all that Nadal will overtake Federer as #1 this year.

tudwell
11-11-2009, 09:25 PM
So they can't duke it out in the final for the number one spot?

:(

akv89
11-11-2009, 09:31 PM
So they can't duke it out in the final for the number one spot?

:(

It's still possible. Let's say Nadal wins Paris and narrows the gap to 305 pts. If both of them make it to the finals with Nadal having had as good if not a better record than Federer in the RR stage, then the gap will be less than or equal to 305 pts. Since they are playing for 500 pts in the final, the winner will end up ranked #1 for the year.

Baikalic
11-11-2009, 09:55 PM
the likelihood of nadal winning Paris is ... low. I'm not holding my breath for Nadal #1.

robin7
11-11-2009, 11:29 PM
Yeah, the most likely scenario for Nadal to be year-end #1 is to win both Paris & London.

roysid
11-11-2009, 11:43 PM
Thanks for the heads-up roysid, a typo in the semifinals score messed it up. It's a little late so I didn't realize the mistake

This should be right?
__________________________________________________ ________________________________
Scenarios for Nadal to make #1 in the world in London based on results in Paris

Federer race points going into London: 10,150 (-0)


Nadal race points R16 in Paris : 8935 (-1215)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 1 Round Robin match


Nadal race points QF in Paris : 9025 (-1125)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 1 Round Robin match or Nadal makes final but Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points SF in Paris : 9205 (-945)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer win no more than 2 Round Robin matches or Nadal makes final but Federer wins no matches in London


Nadal race points F in Paris : 9445 (-705)
Scenario: Nadal must win London and Federer goes no further than semifinals (while losing atleast 1 match in round robin), or Nadal makes finals in London and Federer only wins 1 round robin match


Nadal race points W in Paris : 9845 (-305)
Scenario: Nadal wins London and all round robin matches and Federer makes semifinals, Nadal makes final and Federer doesn’t make semifinals

__________________________________________________ _______________

Comments: I don't think it's likely at all that Nadal will overtake Federer as #1 this year.
Thanks for correcting it up. Yeah it's very difficult for Nadal to gain #1 because in London Fed has 3 matches to play. He'll have enough chance to bounse back.

Blinkism
11-13-2009, 06:51 PM
Spider, in another thread, pointed out something we've all forgotten to mention

Davis Cup

if Nadal plays the Davis Cup final, that's more points up for grabs after the World Tour Final...

That would change things a little more, giving Nadal just a bit more space.

tudwell
11-13-2009, 07:19 PM
I think that's really stupid. Nadal benefits from having a fantastic Davis Cup team while Federer has to make do with Wawrinka. And now it could cost him the number one ranking? Ugh.

Davis Cup should've remained pointless (lol).

kOaMaster
11-14-2009, 08:24 AM
so whats the score now before the wtf starts? how much's the difference?

is 10150 federer and 9665 nadal correct? means that federer is 485 points in front of nadal and basically if both would win all matches (or nadal more than federer) there would be a possibility of a "grand final" in london?

Blinkism
11-14-2009, 08:44 AM
so whats the score now before the wtf starts? how much's the difference?

is 10150 federer and 9665 nadal correct? means that federer is 485 points in front of nadal and basically if both would win all matches (or nadal more than federer) there would be a possibility of a "grand final" in london?

Federer is currently 945 points ahead of Nadal so a final wouldn't decide the ranking, as Federer would have already ensure his #1 spot in the final.

They can duke it out in a "semifinal for #1", though.

kOaMaster
11-14-2009, 08:53 AM
Federer is currently 945 points ahead of Nadal so a final wouldn't decide the ranking, as Federer would have already ensure his #1 spot in the final.

They can duke it out in a "semifinal for #1", though.

how would that be possible?
federer would need at least one win for the semis, nadal can do maximum three finals -> +400. a semifinal gives another 400. so federer would still be ahead if nadal loses the final.

(I don't think this whole scenario is likely to happen, but you never know)

Blinkism
11-14-2009, 08:57 AM
how would that be possible?
federer would need at least one win for the semis, nadal can do maximum three finals -> +400. a semifinal gives another 400. so federer would still be ahead if nadal loses the final.

(I don't think this whole scenario is likely to happen, but you never know)

It would be possible if Nadal wins all 3 round robin matches or if Federer makes it to the semi's with only 1 round robin match won (it's a possible, but very unlikely scenario).

Should they both win 2 round robin matches and meet in the semi's, and Nadal goes on to beat Federer and win in the final- then Nadal would be 45 points behind Federer.

In this case, he has a maximum of 50 points he can win at the Davis Cup final.

So he could end 2009 as #1.

If Fed doesn't make it past the group stage in London (which he didn't last year) and Nadal finds good enough form to make the final (Nadal's only 2 appearances at YEC, he made it out of group stage), the #1 spot would be as good as gone- Davis Cup or not.

kOaMaster
11-14-2009, 09:04 AM
how many points can one win in london?
I thought it's 200 for group stage wins each, 400 semi, 500 final?

mandy01
11-14-2009, 09:06 AM
So basically Fed has to win atleast 2 RRs and Nadal has to win London undefeated.
If Nadal loses a match along the way then its fine for Roger to win just 1 RR..
I think....

Blinkism
11-14-2009, 09:12 AM
So basically Fed has to win atleast 2 RRs and Nadal has to win London undefeated.
If Nadal loses a match along the way then its fine for Roger to win just 1 RR..
I think....

Nadal has to gain 950 more points than Federer does until the end of the year to end 2009 as #1. Nadal is participating in London (where he can add a maximum 1500 points to his ranking tally) AND the Davis Cup (where he can add 50 points to his ranking tally)

Davis Cup complicates things a bit. I'll spare the details, but Nadal has to win 2 singles rubbers at the Davis Cup to earn 50 points. He is scheduled for DC action, so as long as he is scheduled for 2 singles rubbers and wins them both, he will get 50 points added after everyone else in the Top 8 has already stopped playing for the season.

Nadal can become #1 in London
a) if Federer wins no matches in London and Nadal makes it to the final undefeated or wins the title in any way.

b)if Federer wins just 1 RR, Nadal must win the title whilst losing a maximum of 1 match in RR.

c)if Federer wins 2 RR matches but loses in the semifinals, Nadal must win London undefeated.

d)if Federer gets out of the RR stage undefeated, Fed is the year-end #1.

Davis Cup, however, changes the dynamic a bit!!

In situation a) Nadal can afford to lose 1 round robin match provided he wins both Davis Cup rubbers in December - he'll be year end #1

In situation b) Nadal can afford to lose 1 more round robin match provided he wins both Davis Cup rubbers in December- he'll be year end #1

In situation c) Nadal can afford to lose 1 round robin match as long as he wins both Davis Cup rubbers in December- he'll be year end #1

In situation d) Nadal would have to win London undefeated and both Davis Cup rubbers AND Federer would have to lose in the semifinals- Nadal will be year end #1

So, it's possible Nadal doesn't overtake Federer as #1 in London, but does it, rather, at the Davis Cup.

In this scenario, Nadal would have a very slender lead over Federer and could lose it as soon as January- where he would be defending 45 points in Doha along with Federer defending 90 points.

----------------------------------------
It would be a funny situation, however, if somehow Nadal ends up 45 points behind Federer at the end of 2009.

In that case, the usually not-important Doha tournament would become the center of a battle for #1 where the order of the Top 2 seeds at the AO will be decided.

TMF
11-14-2009, 09:28 AM
Federer is currently 945 points ahead of Nadal so a final wouldn't decide the ranking, as Federer would have already ensure his #1 spot in the final.

They can duke it out in a "semifinal for #1", though.

Blinkism, according to the http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Singles.aspx

Federer = 10,340
Nadal = 8,845
Nole = 8,300

After Paris and assuming Nole will beat Monfils tomorrow:
Nole earned 1000 pts
Federer earned 45 pts(2nd round)
Nadal earned 360 pts(semifinalist)

To add up the points:
Federer....10,340 + 45 = 10,385
Nadal.......8,845 + 360 = 9,205
Nole.........8,300 + 1,000 = 9,300

Isn't that correct?

Blinkism
11-14-2009, 09:36 AM
^^ no, those are ranking points. They include last year's YEC points which will drop 1 week before the 2009 YEC, the same day the Paris points are added (on monday)

For this reason, the race points are more useful at this point in the year (and they will coincide with the ranking points on Monday).

Look at the atp's front page for current (daily updates) race points chart.

Going into London

Federer has 10,150 points
Nadal has 9,205 points

And Djokovic's point total is still to be determined but it's either 7,510 with a loss or 7,910 with a win.

If Djokovic wins Paris then 2 RR wins in London guarantee Nadal atleast the #2 spot at the end of the year (1 RR win and 2 Davis Cup wins guarantees it, also). If Djokovic loses in the Paris final, he can not overtake Nadal as #2 in 2009.

If Djokovic wins Paris than 2 RR wins in London guarantees him atleast the #3 spot at the end of the year. If Djokovic loses in the Paris final then Murray would have to gain 900 more points than Djokovic in London.

If Del Potro can gain atleast 700 more points than Murray in London, he's the new #4 in the world. He can not crack the Top 3, though, even with an undefeated win.

GustafsonFanatic
11-14-2009, 03:40 PM
Spider, in another thread, pointed out something we've all forgotten to mention

Davis Cup

if Nadal plays the Davis Cup final, that's more points up for grabs after the World Tour Final...



Now that Rafa is out of Paris and in need of more points, should he play in Fed Cup as well Davis Cup, to maximize his chances?

FlamEnemY
11-14-2009, 04:13 PM
....

I couldn't help but chime in, so...

I just have to say that I love how our prediction about the year end rankings comes true. About Djoko and his No3 spot and so on.

sorry. no more offtopic.

TMF
11-14-2009, 09:45 PM
Now that Rafa is out of Paris and in need of more points, should he play in Fed Cup as well Davis Cup, to maximize his chances?

How many points Rafa can get if he decided to play Davis Cup in December?

GustafsonFanatic
11-14-2009, 11:12 PM
^
Correct answer: 150 (75 for each win).

vive le beau jeu !
11-15-2009, 01:40 AM
^
Correct answer: 150 (75 for each win).
are you sure of this ?...
i thought it was working differently (see post below).

anyway, this situation is absolutely ridiculous: a player could clinch the #1 spot depending on if his davis cup single partner is bad enough to let him the opportunity to play (and win) 2 live rubbers !
seriously... davis cup points for the rankings was a bad idea since the beginning, and they managed to make it even worse than it could have been ! :mad:
Originally Posted by Cosmic Charlie
Doesn't Nadal stand to gain additional race points in the Davis Cup Final? Which implies the #1 could be decided after the Year End Masters!

Just doesn't sit well with what I'm used to. The Masters Cup on a few ocasions offered a climactic platform with a load of possibilities/permutations given the RR format.one of the reasons why i don't like this idea of awarding davis cup points... and it can be even worse if we had to wait for points from the davis cup final of the previous year to drop off, to know the year-end #1 ! :?
http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?p=2090885&highlight=davis+cup+final+able#post2090885

but as regards nadal, how many points could he earn if we consider the (extremely unpleasant, i know) hypothesis where he wins two live single rubbers in the final ?

c) Players who miss a round of ties (i.e not among the four nominated players at the draw) will be awarded points based on the immediately preceding round.(For example, a player who doesn’t play the first round but plays the second round will earn 40 points for each singles match won in that second round).from: http://www.daviscup.com/ranking/atp.asp

so... if i understand that point of the rules well, as he didn't play since the 1st round against serbia, he would get 65 points (according to the table) for any live single win in the final, and his davis cup points total would be:
40*2 (1st round) +65*2 (final) = 210 points

then... this can count as a "ATP World Tour 500 category" result.
in his "ATP World Tour 500 category" list of results, he already has:
1000 (monte-carlo)
500 (barcelona)
300 (rotterdam)
180 (pekin)
as only his 4 best "ATP World Tour 500 category" (http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/Rankings-FAQ.aspx) results can be count, it means that pekin points would be replaced by davis cup points... and he would gain a maximum of 210-180 = 30 points (in the worse case, or "best case" from his own selfish perspective).

but maybe i missed something ?

anyway, hopefully he will lose all of his upcoming matches so that we don't have to bother with all these maths ! ;)

namelessone
11-15-2009, 01:56 AM
Actually awarding points for DC is a great idea and it's not like only Nadal can participate. The fact that you can,at most,get points that reach the level of a 500 event shows that it is balanced enough. DC is a competition steeped in tradition(founded in 1900),are you telling me it isn't as important as a 500 event in the ATP? This discussion started because Nadal has a minor chance of getting to nr.1 by virtue of his DC points should Spain win DC again,but that won't happen because Nadal has to win or reach the final of TMC and Federer has to fail early on.

IMO players should be encouraged to play DC.

vive le beau jeu !
11-15-2009, 02:43 AM
Actually awarding points for DC is a great idea and it's not like only Nadal can participate. The fact that you can,at most,get points that reach the level of a 500 event shows that it is balanced enough. DC is a competition steeped in tradition(founded in 1900),are you telling me it isn't as important as a 500 event in the ATP? This discussion started because Nadal has a minor chance of getting to nr.1 by virtue of his DC points should Spain win DC again,but that won't happen because Nadal has to win or reach the final of TMC and Federer has to fail early on.

IMO players should be encouraged to play DC.
they should, i agree.

but due to the particular format of the competition, it seems to me impossible to implement a fair system for awarding ATP points (cf. players from very -tennistically- small countries, such as baghdatis for instance, players from countries with many top players, such as spain for instance, that can't have the opportunity to play DC, etc.). and it opens the door to too many ankward scenarios (see above).