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View Full Version : 2010: the year the old guard changes


KenC
11-27-2009, 08:50 AM
Seeing Nadal play is just depressing, my grandmother hits forehands harder than him now. Seeing Federer struggle against JMDP and Djokovic has me worried that he can't keep keep winning like he has been. Federer hasn't really improved in the last two years and parts of his game are starting to falter, like net play. I don't see Nadal winning a major, and maybe Roger could get Wimbledon in 2010.

I suspect the #1 and #2 positions are fair game for Murray, Del Potro and Djokovic by the end of 2010. Murray has to get more aggressive, Djokovic has to get more consistent, and Del Potro just has to keep improving.

Chadwixx
11-27-2009, 08:53 AM
What did fed do this year that makes you think he is on the decline?

Nadal is pretty obvious

TheMagicianOfPrecision
11-27-2009, 08:53 AM
Federer will be no1 for the most parts of 2010 imo. Soderling might break into top 5, DelPo will break into top 3.

GasquetGOAT
11-27-2009, 08:55 AM
Del Potro definitely has the goods. He always seems to get better deeper in slams same can't be said for Murray.

I see the Del Potro wagon in full force coming AO. No one would want him in his quarter.

AM95
11-27-2009, 09:02 AM
fail thread...

if a 28 year old who has been in all slam finals winning two, and has two masters titles and decent results in masters tournaments this year is in decline then what does that make you?

just because he lost to JMDP doesn't mean he is done, finished, washed up..

same with Nadal, its the end of the season, he always plays bad this time of year. affected by a injury,clearly he isn't training as hard as he was in the beginning of the year (evident by his muscle loss) in order to rest his body

give Federer and Nadal break..they've been at the top for so long and when they lose a match everyone cries out "retire"

if murray becomes number 1 without winning a slam then he will be the male dinara safina. IMO, he'll never will win a slam until he stops his defensive/neutral play (notice how i dont say pushing)

JMDP is too young and unworthy of being number 1... by september next year you will see that his win at the USO was a fluke, he had a cakewalk draw and the only to matches that were actually difficult were against a comeback/abdominal injured nadal, and against an out of form, distracted federer (the crowd that sounded that it was at a davis cup match, and the crappy umpire clearly played a role in JMDP final win)

Tsonga#1fan
11-27-2009, 09:25 AM
I agree Federer is showing signs that a slight decline has begun. Although he had a great year last year winning his French and Wimbledon, I saw him struggle more last year and quite frankly loose matches that two or three years ago would have been unthinkable (the Tsonga match). The competition below him is intense and they are gunning for the top. I believe Roger will remain a legitimate contender for at least a few more years, especially at Wimbledon, but don't be surprised when he starts not automatically making the semi's and finals of majors that Federer fans have so arrogantly become accustom to.

skip1969
11-27-2009, 09:28 AM
and these conclusions are drawn from . . . what? the last three months of the season where every player is either physically beat/injured, mentally exhausted/over it, bored, distracted, longing for a holiday, etc. . .

after the uso, the season pretty much peters out, imo. the top players try to peak for the slams. after the uso, there's a nice long gap til australia. most of that time, most of the top guys probably don't even want to keep slogging to the remaining events. the only big event is the paris indoor. the year-end is a big payday for the guys who qualify . . . but in terms of prestige, how much does it make or break your year, really? not much. i think any of them would gladly take his slam title/titles for the year and be on his merry way.

i know the reign of fed and rafa hoarding the four majors is bound to end sooner rather than later, but to say that next year is it for them, and basing that assumption on their recent form is a bit of a stretch. how many years have we been hearing about the "new" guard taking over?? sure, there are guys taking steps, getting closer and closer . . . but that last step to being no. 1 and 2 is a big one.

Blinkism
11-27-2009, 09:32 AM
how many years have we been hearing about the "new" guard taking over?? sure, there are guys taking steps, getting closer and closer . . . but that last step to being no. 1 and 2 is a big one.

Since 2007, IIRC.

Tsonga#1fan
11-27-2009, 09:52 AM
I like Roger Federer alot, love watching him play. I draw my conclusions about his decline based on his poor showing at the 2008 Olympics where he himself has put such an emphasis on. His early spring hard court season was a disaster, even resulting in the usually unflappable Federer resorting to smashing racquets. Even in his French and Wimbledon runs, there were times of inconsistent play and challenges from more than just the usual couple of players and stunning losses throughout the second half of the season that were once unheard of in the Federer of old. It really doesn't matter to me if it is next year or a year or two down the road, because I will miss the day when Roger Federer is not a force in the game. Thankfully, it appears he will be around for quite a while longer and will be a serious threat at slam events, at least through the 2012 Olympics, according to Roger himself. I just don't believe a continued run of tour and slam consistency and titles is possible even for the great Roger Federer. I hope he isn't going to be too disappointed when he has no success at the '12 Olympics, his time will be up well before then. I know Fed fans, denial is a hard thing, but don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.

AM95
11-27-2009, 10:05 AM
I like Roger Federer alot, love watching him play. I draw my conclusions about his decline based on his poor showing at the 2008 Olympics where he himself has put such an emphasis on. His early spring hard court season was a disaster, even resulting in the usually unflappable Federer resorting to smashing racquets. Even in his French and Wimbledon runs, there were times of inconsistent play and challenges from more than just the usual couple of players and stunning losses throughout the second half of the season that were once unheard of in the Federer of old. It really doesn't matter to me if it is next year or a year or two down the road, because I will miss the day when Roger Federer is not a force in the game. Thankfully, it appears he will be around for quite a while longer and will be a serious threat at slam events, at least through the 2012 Olympics, according to Roger himself. I just don't believe a continued run of tour and slam consistency and titles is possible even for the great Roger Federer. I hope he isn't going to be too disappointed when he has no success at the '12 Olympics, his time will be up well before then. I know Fed fans, denial is a hard thing, but don't shoot me, I'm just the messenger.

well written. and i agree, but i think its ludicrous to say that Federer is in free-fall decline based on his results in the final quarter of the season.

Federer has been so remarkably consistent, and that can be seen in his numerous records, above which is his 22 consecutive grand slam semifinal or better achievement. His results in small tournaments is no indication to his form in the Slams.

Tsonga#1fan
11-27-2009, 10:12 AM
well written. and i agree, but i think its ludicrous to say that Federer is in free-fall decline based on his results in the final quarter of the season.

Federer has been so remarkably consistent, and that can be seen in his numerous records, above which is his 22 consecutive grand slam semifinal or better achievement. His results in small tournaments is no indication to his form in the Slams.

He has been squeeking by in more and more matches the last year/year and a half, even at the slams where he has indeed had an outstanding run of consistency. There appear to be some signs of a slight decline, not a free-fall. It is inevitable though, there is no avoiding it, it happens to even the very best and Roger Federer will be no exception. There can be no mistake about his achievements and there will still be a few more good runs and titles, but the losses shouldn't be too surprising or unexpected either.

flying24
11-27-2009, 10:15 AM
I think we will see Federer stay at #1 next year. With Nadal seemingly on decline I dont see who else could take it. Del Potro, Murray, and Djokovic are all quality players but I doubt their ability to consistently perform at a level for an entire year to overtake Roger, even Roger past his very best. As for Roger I dont think he will ever dominate again but I think he will win atleast 1 slam next year, quite possibly more, and stay at #1. Nadal wont win any slams other than maybe the French, but that is far from a certainty. Del Potro or Djokovic I could see winning a slam next year also, and could see 1 of those 2 especialy become the #2 ranked player.

scotus
11-27-2009, 10:26 AM
I suspect the #1 and #2 positions are fair game for Murray, Del Potro and Djokovic by the end of 2010. Murray has to get more aggressive, Djokovic has to get more consistent, and Del Potro just has to keep improving.

Murray will continue to choke at slams.
Djokovic will continue to struggle with his fitness especially in the best-of-5 matches.
Del Potro will need a long time off due to his tennis elbow, or forearm tendinitis, or whatever it is that he has.

Looks like Federer and Nadal will still be quite the force to be reckoned with.

joeri888
11-27-2009, 10:33 AM
Who knows, maybe Delpo will win 16 Slams, and the US Open turns out to have been the changing of the guard. I don't think so though. Federer is Federer. He eats Grand Slams for breakfast. He has Wimbledon for dinner, with christmas he eats French food. He lives best of 5. I don't see him not winning a Slam in 2010. He's not his magic consistent best. But his highest level is only matched by Rafael Nadal who doesn't look too good. I think Fed will win at least one Slam next year.

TheTruth
11-27-2009, 10:33 AM
and these conclusions are drawn from . . . what? the last three months of the season where every player is either physically beat/injured, mentally exhausted/over it, bored, distracted, longing for a holiday, etc. . .

after the uso, the season pretty much peters out, imo. the top players try to peak for the slams. after the uso, there's a nice long gap til australia. most of that time, most of the top guys probably don't even want to keep slogging to the remaining events. the only big event is the paris indoor. the year-end is a big payday for the guys who qualify . . . but in terms of prestige, how much does it make or break your year, really? not much. i think any of them would gladly take his slam title/titles for the year and be on his merry way.

i know the reign of fed and rafa hoarding the four majors is bound to end sooner rather than later, but to say that next year is it for them, and basing that assumption on their recent form is a bit of a stretch. how many years have we been hearing about the "new" guard taking over?? sure, there are guys taking steps, getting closer and closer . . . but that last step to being no. 1 and 2 is a big one.

Great post. I agree, it's always this way after the USO.The matches are usually pretty lackluster except for the lower ranked guys who still have much to play for, but I think the other poster made some salient points as well. I agree with both sides.

TheTruth
11-27-2009, 10:40 AM
This is the first year in a long time where we're not expecting the same thing in the new season. It'll be interesting to see what we're saying this time next year.

Tsonga#1fan
11-27-2009, 10:43 AM
This is the first year in a long time where we're not expecting the same thing in the new season. It'll be interesting to see what we're saying this time next year.

I think the next year's season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting of any in a great long while.

jswinf
11-27-2009, 10:44 AM
[QUOTE=KenC;4150610]Seeing Nadal play is just depressing, my grandmother hits forehands harder than him now.QUOTE]

Maybe Rafa's a little puny these days, but I'm still wouldn't want to tangle with that grandmother.

TheTruth
11-27-2009, 10:53 AM
I think the next year's season is shaping up to be one of the most exciting of any in a great long while.


I do too. I think Del Potro has already proven he's a force to be reckoned with. He had that lull after winning the Open, but that's to be expected after such a momentous win. He seems to have settled back down and put his nose to the ground. I see him repeating the slam thing. And, I see people like Soderling, Tsonga, even Verdasco having more belief this year. It's going to be a great year. I'm excited!

joeri888
11-27-2009, 11:05 AM
This is the first year in a long time where we're not expecting the same thing in the new season. It'll be interesting to see what we're saying this time next year.

Most people didn't expect Federer to win the channel Slam this year I think. Most people didn't think Delpo would win a Slam either. Most people didn't think Roddick would come so close to winning another one. No one thought Soderling would make a Slamfinal.

Everyone thought Rafa would dominate, Roger was done, Roddick was done, Davydenko was done, Murray was due for a Slam.

Marty502
11-27-2009, 11:05 AM
I just hope Gonzalez can get in the Top 10 again. He played some great tennis this year, but had too many injuries. He's playing fewer tournaments too, so something's up.

Del Potro should have an amazing 2010.

Tsonga#1fan
11-27-2009, 11:06 AM
I do too. I think Del Potro has already proven he's a force to be reckoned with. He had that lull after winning the Open, but that's to be expected after such a momentous win. He seems to have settled back down and put his nose to the ground. I see him repeating the slam thing. And, I see people like Soderling, Tsonga, even Verdasco having more belief this year. It's going to be a great year. I'm excited!

The last time I can remember such a legitimate bunch of top five players having realistic chances at the slams was back in the late '80s with Lendl, Wilander, Edberg, Becker.......and IMO the whole top ten now is as solid and probably more so than ever.