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View Full Version : Is "Project 2010" Dead On Arrival?


Cindysphinx
12-01-2009, 11:33 AM
Just came back from my clinic. We have five women in the group, all 3.5s.

None of us were bumped up, but all of us would like to reach 4.0 and are working hard on our tennis. We have launched "Project 2010": All of us hope to be bumped up in Nov. 2010. We have set that as a goal, and our pro is enthusiastic about the idea of getting all five of us squared away.

One of the ladies said this was very unlikely. She has played USTA for many years and says that USTA adjusts the ratings periodically. When this happens, a whole bunch of people get moved up en masse, like what just happened. In the next year, hardly anyone is moved up. That means the chances of us getting bumped in 2010 are slim to none.

Is there any truth to this? Does the recent ratings adjustment mean I will remain 3.5 unless I destroy pretty much everyone I play? I kind of figured the bar for making 4.0 had been lowered, and she is saying it has been raised.

cak
12-01-2009, 11:40 AM
I'm with you. I think this major bump is like adding .1 to everyone's rating. So before, if you were a 3.39 you are now a 3.49, just a sliver away from 3.51 (4.0!!!) And, everyone you play against is also higher. So those 3.01 ladies you beat 1 and 1 last year, this year they are 3.11s, so when you beat them 1 and 1 this year your NTRP will move more.

Kostas
12-01-2009, 11:48 AM
I kind of figured the bar for making 4.0 had been lowered, and she is saying it has been raised.

I figured this as well as the vast majority of my area has been bumped up. I am lucky that I was able to secure commitments from most of the remaining "old" 3.5s to play on my team because 90%+ of the "new" 3.5s in my area are the "old" 3.0s and I have better talent than they will be able to put together.

I think that anyone that survived in their old rating will likely be at the top of the skill curve within that rating due to the influx of previously lower rated players.

As for 2010? Who the heck knows...

kylebarendrick
12-01-2009, 01:13 PM
My hope is that we will see a large number of bumps again next year. As Kostas pointed out, those of you that kept your rating should be able to do very well, leading to another round of bumps.

OrangePower
12-01-2009, 02:15 PM
I'm with you. I think this major bump is like adding .1 to everyone's rating. So before, if you were a 3.39 you are now a 3.49, just a sliver away from 3.51 (4.0!!!)

I think that's a great way to look at it - basically they have added an extra fraction to everyone.

And, everyone you play against is also higher. So those 3.01 ladies you beat 1 and 1 last year, this year they are 3.11s, so when you beat them 1 and 1 this year your NTRP will move more.

Unfortunately this part I think is incorrect. Yes, the 3.01 you beat last year is now a 3.11... but your are now a 3.49 rather than a 3.39. So the difference between you and the opponent is still the same, and so you are expected to still beat them by the same margin.

If anything, your chances of improving your rating are slightly worsened by the fact that the overall quality of your opposition is going to be lower. You're no longer going to be able to have good performances against the top players (they are all now at the higher level). So you really need to make sure you beat up on the weaker competition!!

JavierLW
12-01-2009, 02:16 PM
Just came back from my clinic. We have five women in the group, all 3.5s.

None of us were bumped up, but all of us would like to reach 4.0 and are working hard on our tennis. We have launched "Project 2010": All of us hope to be bumped up in Nov. 2010. We have set that as a goal, and our pro is enthusiastic about the idea of getting all five of us squared away.

One of the ladies said this was very unlikely. She has played USTA for many years and says that USTA adjusts the ratings periodically. When this happens, a whole bunch of people get moved up en masse, like what just happened. In the next year, hardly anyone is moved up. That means the chances of us getting bumped in 2010 are slim to none.

Is there any truth to this? Does the recent ratings adjustment mean I will remain 3.5 unless I destroy pretty much everyone I play? I kind of figured the bar for making 4.0 had been lowered, and she is saying it has been raised.

I hope they are right.

What they've done and what they explained they have done is tryed to make a "correction" in what the ratings really stand for.

It's not really meant by design that you shove 35% of all the players at one level into a whole new level.

That would get really old after awhile just because of the pure logistics involved with it.

Not every area is like your's where there is an active system helping to design and create and run teams.

In most cases it's left up the captains to want to run a team, and for them to find players. If they are losing too large of a segment of their players every year that creates a lot of questions of how they are going to continue the function for the next year.

Like in my example, I had 9 guys moved up to 4.0 and 6 guys are stuck at 3.5. I could:

1) Say heck with it all together and play in a Renegade League
2) Just run 3.5 and maybe if the 9 other guys are lucky some captain will take them at 4.0
3) Just run 4.0 and maybe if the other 6 guys are lucky some captain will take them on their 3.5 team.
4) Run two teams (my current plan)

In our 3.0 men's league there were already only 5 teams, and now 50% of those got moved to 3.5. So if you stare at you'd think that there is enough players for 2 3.0 teams. But when you think of logistics it may not happen because who is to say that two captains are going to dig around and find those players.

(which is where the local league taking a better step in trying to find new players and help create teams would come into play)

There is no way they should do that every year.

But in your case it sounds like you're playing 4.0 so even if they wouldnt of made this massive overhaul this year, you might of made it to 4.0 anyway, now maybe the line is just a little closer.

OrangePower
12-01-2009, 02:21 PM
Like in my example, I had 9 guys moved up to 4.0 and 6 guys are stuck at 3.5. I could:

1) Say heck with it all together and play in a Renegade League
2) Just run 3.5 and maybe if the 9 other guys are lucky some captain will take them at 4.0
3) Just run 4.0 and maybe if the other 6 guys are lucky some captain will take them on their 3.5 team.
4) Run two teams (my current plan)



Or... Have one of the 9 that got moved up take the initiative and captain a 4.0 team. He could then fill that team out with a few new recruits (maybe other new 4.0s), plus have some 3.5s play up. And then you captain the 3.5 team, and recruit some more 3.5s to make up your numbers. There are going to be a bunch of newly minted 3.5s looking for a home so this would be your chance to snap up some new talent at a bargain price!

MrTennis
12-01-2009, 02:23 PM
1) Say heck with it all together and play in a Renegade League
2) Just run 3.5 and maybe if the 9 other guys are lucky some captain will take them at 4.0
3) Just run 4.0 and maybe if the other 6 guys are lucky some captain will take them on their 3.5 team.
4) Run two teams (my current plan)


There is one more option for your list:

5) the 9 could form their own team, assign a Captain, maybe recruit some more players, and compete as a new team at 4.0 level.

jmjmkim
12-01-2009, 02:30 PM
Probably not dead so far

Jim A
12-01-2009, 02:46 PM
why worry about what some career 3.5 player has told you?? If you put the hours in, you'll have the best chance to make your goal.

cak
12-01-2009, 03:02 PM
Yeah, I'm in charge of USTA teams for our small club. Of the folks interested in playing 6.0 mixed, only 2 3.0 ladies and one 3.0 man remains. The other 7 were bumped up. So we are going to have to punt on that team.

JavierLW
12-01-2009, 03:52 PM
Or... Have one of the 9 that got moved up take the initiative and captain a 4.0 team. He could then fill that team out with a few new recruits (maybe other new 4.0s), plus have some 3.5s play up. And then you captain the 3.5 team, and recruit some more 3.5s to make up your numbers. There are going to be a bunch of newly minted 3.5s looking for a home so this would be your chance to snap up some new talent at a bargain price!

Right those are options as well. Im running the 4.0 team so that's not really an issue for me.

But it's not always going to be the case that captains will take the initiative to do all of that. Or just because you find a bunch of names on a rating list that everyone knows where to contact them or that they'll magically end up on a team.

In 2004 I ran a 3.0 and a 3.5 team at the same time. In 2005 I decided that after 3 years, I wasnt interested in captaining the 3.0 team any longer, so I asked around to see if anyone was interested in taking the reins and running it.

Nobody wanted to do that, so their was no team. Some guys found other 3.0 teams (I helped a couple find a team out of people I knew), but some other guys never played USTA tennis again.

What was funny was the team was created by the local USTA. In the last year of the ratings clinics they wanted to round out a division and add a 4th team so they recruited for it from the ratings clinics and we ended up with this team full of hodge podge players.

But now with nothing like ratings clinics there is sort of a gap there locally as far as how these things get started, or how random assortments of players who are interested find a team.

Anyways my point was that it's enough of a hassle that you wouldnt want every year to be like this.

Certainly in the past few years there have been a lot of minor changes but unless you've been deep in the playoffs it hasnt affected more then a few players here and there.

Ive been playing now consistently from 2002-2009 and I ran a team in 1999, and I dont remember anything like this. (although the league's been around way before 1999, I have no idea what that was like)

OrangePower
12-01-2009, 04:18 PM
Right those are options as well. Im running the 4.0 team so that's not really an issue for me.

But it's not always going to be the case that captains will take the initiative to do all of that. Or just because you find a bunch of names on a rating list that everyone knows where to contact them or that they'll magically end up on a team.

In 2004 I ran a 3.0 and a 3.5 team at the same time. In 2005 I decided that after 3 years, I wasnt interested in captaining the 3.0 team any longer, so I asked around to see if anyone was interested in taking the reins and running it.

Nobody wanted to do that, so their was no team. Some guys found other 3.0 teams (I helped a couple find a team out of people I knew), but some other guys never played USTA tennis again.

What was funny was the team was created by the local USTA. In the last year of the ratings clinics they wanted to round out a division and add a 4th team so they recruited for it from the ratings clinics and we ended up with this team full of hodge podge players.

But now with nothing like ratings clinics there is sort of a gap there locally as far as how these things get started, or how random assortments of players who are interested find a team.

Anyways my point was that it's enough of a hassle that you wouldnt want every year to be like this.

Certainly in the past few years there have been a lot of minor changes but unless you've been deep in the playoffs it hasnt affected more then a few players here and there.

Ive been playing now consistently from 2002-2009 and I ran a team in 1999, and I dont remember anything like this. (although the league's been around way before 1999, I have no idea what that was like)

I hear you... definitely this creates some headaches for captains, especially those that thought they would have a pretty stable lineup for next season and now find out otherwise... (I'm in this same boat by the way)

My point was that there's a flipside, and that is that maybe this motivates more people to take some initiative and form / captain new teams. If this happens, it could result in more opportunities for eveyone, not less.

JavierLW
12-01-2009, 07:13 PM
My point was that there's a flipside, and that is that maybe this motivates more people to take some initiative and form / captain new teams. If this happens, it could result in more opportunities for eveyone, not less.

Id agree with that as well. It's a mystery how that will all shape up. It's like that anytime they make a huge major change.

I do think where they moved the lines too do seem to make more sense. I can actually stick 3.5 players on the 3.5 team, where in the past I would usually just lose guys that definately could of played 4.0, and I felt I had to replace them with similar guys that could of played 4.0. (just to maintain our winning record, stay in 3rd place or better, win the division, whatever....)

raiden031
12-01-2009, 07:38 PM
One of the ladies said this was very unlikely. She has played USTA for many years and says that USTA adjusts the ratings periodically. When this happens, a whole bunch of people get moved up en masse, like what just happened. In the next year, hardly anyone is moved up. That means the chances of us getting bumped in 2010 are slim to none.


Why would this affect what happens to you at the end of next year? If you want to get moved up, its solely up to you to outplay your opponents. The power is in your hands.

10sguy
12-01-2009, 10:43 PM
Certainly in the past few years there have been a lot of minor changes but unless you've been deep in the playoffs it hasnt affected more then a few players here and there.

Ive been playing now consistently from 2002-2009 and I ran a team in 1999, and I dont remember anything like this. (although the league's been around way before 1999, I have no idea what that was like)

I've involved in USTA Leagues tennis virtually since its inception (early 80's) and this is, by far, the most significant ratings groupings adjustment. It was long overdue too!

Nellie
12-02-2009, 06:15 AM
I would think that if you were a 3.5 last year, your chances of getting bumped up based on your play is really good, since many of your opponents would have been 3.0's last year. You should beat people at 3.5, and if you play at 4.0, you should be competitive.

Per comments above, I think that your chances of getting bumped up systematically is likely low, since I would expect the USTA to move up 30% of people again next year.

JavierLW
12-02-2009, 06:32 AM
I've involved in USTA Leagues tennis virtually since its inception (early 80's) and this is, by far, the most significant ratings groupings adjustment. It was long overdue too!

Right, and wouldnt you agree that if they did something like this EVERY year that would get really old?

Nellie
12-02-2009, 07:42 AM
I agree because there was no place for new players in leagues, unless you wanted to spend time and money to get smacked around.