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nn
04-20-2005, 12:04 PM
wow..from nowhere you see Nadal is second to Roger on ATP list www.atptennis.com If he can win French (Roger lost in early round) and Nadal show good performance in last two major he has chance to be number 1 but long shot at this time..

counterpunch
04-20-2005, 12:13 PM
So what if he is no. 2 in the champions race in april, there is a long way to go. Its not like he is no. 2 in the entry rankings.

nn
04-20-2005, 12:19 PM
Roger has 475 and Nadal 313. not very close but it can be if Nadal win French

splink779
04-20-2005, 12:27 PM
Even if Nadal wins the French, Federer will have to lose in the last two slams in order for it to be close. As much as I would like to see it not happen, Federer will most likely win one slam this year.

antontd
04-20-2005, 12:28 PM
yeah, and if he wins 15 slams he would surpass Sampras.

gugafanatic
04-20-2005, 03:07 PM
If fed gets knocked out early at the FO, hes confidence will be quite low esp considering hes knock-back at the AO. Who knows, he may begin to feel the pressure of players now able to compete with him and this may lead to a surprise defeat at wimby???

unlikely but certainly possible if Fed has a poor run at FO

Chadwixx
04-20-2005, 03:47 PM
http://www.atptennis.com/en/players/entrysystem/

he is #11

DashaandSafin
04-20-2005, 04:07 PM
The difference between no.2, 3, 4 to # 11 is quite large...

gugafanatic
04-20-2005, 04:22 PM
DUMBASSES HE IS NO 11 IN THE ENTRY AND NO 2 IN THE RACE. The race ranking is a better representation of Nadals ability, as Nadal has come of age this yr and playing at a considerably higher level. I think he has a possibilty to get a good draw at Wimbledon due to hes ranking and possibilty of FO champ and will thus maintian hes No 2 position post-Wimbledon. We certainly know he can do damage on hardcourts (NORTH AMERICAN SWING SEASON) soo who knows?? are we looking at the end of yr World no 1. Certainly a possiblity, infact Fed best get hes act together for the forthcoming Clay masters.

Chadwixx
04-20-2005, 04:38 PM
the entry ranking system is 52 week avg. ur saying the results of 16 weeks is more accurate than the results of 52?

2ndly federer has lost two matches all year, both matches he played very close up to the end. when's the last time he was beaten is straight sets?

gugafanatic
04-20-2005, 04:45 PM
FO BY GUGA 6-4, 6-4, 6-4. Nadal has also beaten him in strights sets last yr in Maimi and Hrbaty gunned him down too. Trust me based on my assumptions above, Nadal has got a shot at no 1 in the race. Nadals race ranking is more accurate, as he missed the entire clay court season last yr and also wimbledon. In addition Nadal is a complete match-player now hes proved that on both hard courts and clay. Remember he almost toppled Hewitt at AO (4th Rd), and I am pretty sure he would have done had he played with the same self belief he had at miami against Fed.

Chadwixx
04-20-2005, 05:08 PM
i misunderstood what u were saying, i thought u were talking about the players ranking not their champions race ranking.

i agree with u though that he has a shot at #1 in champions race for the next few months. federer is no slouch on clay, dont let all the sampras/fed comparisons make u think he is equally weak on the dirt.

gugafanatic
04-20-2005, 05:24 PM
Yeah Fed is a contender at the FO no doubt.

spinbalz
04-20-2005, 06:06 PM
Anyway, even if Fed doesn't win the French open, I bet that in 2 monthes when the spring red clay season will be over, we will state that as usual Federer will have found his way to win many points by going far in the handful of clay tournaments played before the French open, already one 1/2 final in the first red clay master serie, he will continue to go far in the future clay tournaments and will perhaps win 1 or 2 of them (he already won 2 master series on clay if I'm right) like in the 2 or 3 past years. So even if Nadal finish the season as the best clay courter, it won't be possible for him win enough points to take the N1 spot to Federer, who will easely do much much better than Nadal on fast courts (grass and indoor courts in particular).

couch
04-20-2005, 06:27 PM
DUMBASSES HE IS NO 11 IN THE ENTRY AND NO 2 IN THE RACE. The race ranking is a better representation of Nadals ability, as Nadal has come of age this yr and playing at a considerably higher level. I think he has a possibilty to get a good draw at Wimbledon due to hes ranking and possibilty of FO champ and will thus maintian hes No 2 position post-Wimbledon. We certainly know he can do damage on hardcourts (NORTH AMERICAN SWING SEASON) soo who knows?? are we looking at the end of yr World no 1. Certainly a possiblity, infact Fed best get hes act together for the forthcoming Clay masters.

Nice Language. Sorry, not everyone is as smart as you. No need to get all huffy puffy.

syntex1
04-20-2005, 10:55 PM
he seems to suffer in long drawn out matches more than others lets hope he dosent get to tired before the french where its all best of 5 i think right now that could be his only weakness

SydW
04-20-2005, 11:08 PM
Nadals race ranking is more accurate, as he missed the entire clay court season last yr and also wimbledon. In addition Nadal is a complete match-player now hes proved that on both hard courts and clay. Remember he almost toppled Hewitt at AO (4th Rd), and I am pretty sure he would have done had he played with the same self belief he had at miami against Fed.

and you're sure that if he toppled Hewitt, he could have beaten Andy or Federer or Safin in AO? Nadal was bagelled by Andy in USO last year too, I supposed you didn't remember that. I am surprised most of you didn't see his problem in that Miami final, he ran out of gas and who would have thought the man still standing at the 5 set would be Roger instead of Nadal, that is the problem of his playing style, especially in a slam when you need to play best of 5 every match. He needs to lean to pace himself during matches.

He is a better player this year, definitely but let's not get too far ahead of with that No.1 talk here just yet.

VamosRafa
04-20-2005, 11:59 PM
and you're sure that if he toppled Hewitt, he could have beaten Andy or Federer or Safin in AO? Nadal was bagelled by Andy in USO last year too, I supposed you didn't remember that. I am surprised most of you didn't see his problem in that Miami final, he ran out of gas and who would have thought the man still standing at the 5 set would be Roger instead of Nadal, that is the problem of his playing style, especially in a slam when you need to play best of 5 every match. He needs to lean to pace himself during matches.

He is a better player this year, definitely but let's not get too far ahead of with that No.1 talk here just yet.

And where have you been since Miami, Syd????

Rafa did win TMS Monte Carlo, and he paced himself in that.

Talked about it at length. And how he learned from Miami and put that experience to use.

Do you want me to post interviews and articles on this? Happy to do so. :D

jonas-the-ball-basher
04-21-2005, 01:32 AM
Hmm strange, how could Gaudio, Coria and Nalbandian ranked so much higher than Agassi?

rhubarb
04-21-2005, 02:05 AM
Hmm strange, how could Gaudio, Coria and Nalbandian ranked so much higher than Agassi?

Because they've earned more points than him in the last 12 months. They haven't got much more, just enough.

SydW
04-21-2005, 03:44 AM
And where have you been since Miami, Syd????

Rafa did win TMS Monte Carlo, and he paced himself in that.

Talked about it at length. And how he learned from Miami and put that experience to use.

Do you want me to post interviews and articles on this? Happy to do so. :D

Gee, I freaking knew he won Monte Carlo. Seriously, you need to chill before replying. I said "especially in a slam when you need to play best of 5 every match. He needs to lean to pace himself during matches"

How is winning Monte Carlo (only best of 5 is the final) proving any of what I said is not relevant?

Relax, there's one guy who think Nadal is going to be the no.1 now and I just offered my opinion why that is still premature at this moment.

splink779
04-21-2005, 04:46 AM
Nadal is working with his coach to pace himself during matches. His coach says one of his weaknesses(in his eyes) is his hyper attitude on the court. If he can work it out, hopefully he will be ready for the FO.

nn
04-21-2005, 09:10 AM
Yeah most important point he should have enought energy left before FO because he is playing non-stop (almost) starting mami...

YEMntFtb
04-21-2005, 09:41 AM
Nadal doesn't have a chance on grass, he uses to much of a western grip it will be hard for him to hit the low slicing balls, I would not expect him to make a dent there but at the US Open he has a chance to do well.

rhubarb
04-21-2005, 09:45 AM
Nadal doesn't have a chance on grass, he uses to much of a western grip it will be hard for him to hit the low slicing balls, I would not expect him to make a dent there but at the US Open he has a chance to do well.

I think he'll be ok. He managed to take out Ancic last time he played Wimbledon.

TwistServe
04-21-2005, 10:05 AM
Nadal has a very good chance at #1... all he has to do is win FO and roger not take the other two slams.. lets not forget Nadal should continue to perform well the rest of the year except maybe grass.. he did very good in miami and I'd say Nadal has a good chance to make it deep in all the hard court tornaments this summer.. he'll be a #1 contender for sure!

VamosRafa
04-21-2005, 11:19 AM
If he wins his quarterfinal match against Calleri in Barcelona, he will move into the Top 10.

rhubarb
04-21-2005, 11:39 AM
Yep, and it should mean he'll be seeded 8 in Rome (with Hewitt not playing).

VamosRafa
04-21-2005, 01:19 PM
Yep, and it should mean he'll be seeded 8 in Rome (with Hewitt not playing).

He should also get a good seeding for RG, too. His goal at the beginning of the year was simply to be seeded for RG.

daniel_rst
04-21-2005, 01:27 PM
For a slightly different perspective, I've got Nadal at #5 overall based on quality of play on all surfaces. I'm sure on clay only he would be even higher, but I dont' have that info readily available. He has been climbing steadily through the ranks.

1 Federer, R. (SUI ) 2449
2 Hewitt, L. (AUS ) 2288
3 Agassi, A. (USA ) 2214
4 Roddick, A. (USA ) 2185
5 Nadal, R. (ESP ) 2171
6 Safin, M. (RUS ) 2165
7 Ljubicic, I. (CRO ) 2082
8 Henman, T. (GBR ) 2057
9 Coria, G. (ARG ) 2050
10 Gaudio, G. (ARG ) 2042

The rest of the top 50 can be found here: http://www.setratings.com/component/option,com_ratingsummary/Itemid,52/

I'll try to get the clay-only ratings out of the database this weekend some time and post them here.

ezdude1970
04-21-2005, 01:33 PM
if nadal makes to # 1 at the end of the year, i will stop watching tennis all together, obviously somebody is obsessed with nadal here, and any reasonable argument is met with some sort of angry reply.

Having said that I am willing to bet anybody on this board $100 that no way in Hell, Nadal will be number # 1 this year.

counterpunch
04-21-2005, 01:35 PM
yeah nadal has a good chance at no. 1 if, well, federer has a serious injury and hewitt and roddick suck it up the rest of the year. doesnt sound so likely does it?

DashaandSafin
04-21-2005, 03:55 PM
Ill bet 1,000 that Nadal isnt going to be no.1 this year. Only if Federer has an injury, Hewitt gets shot, and Roddick gets stabbed along with the other top 10 players. I really think Hewitt can crush Nadal. Nadal dosent have the power to overwhelm the counter punching Hewitt and topspin probably dosent bother Hewitt all that much.

VamosRafa
04-21-2005, 05:43 PM
I don't think Rafa will finish No. 1 either; I think Top 5 is do-able if he remains healthy. But there's no guarantee. I hope now that he qualifies for Shanghai.

At the beginning of the year, I didn't think he had a shot at the Top 5. Jon Wertheim said that he did, which surprised me. My my co-manager at the Nadal site sent this letter to Jon W. Here's her letter and his response.

I'm a bit shocked you've picked Rafael Nadal to finish in the top five this year. I know his potential, but I'm surprised. His game is improving mightily, but is it well rounded enough for him to make such a leap? I'd give him another year. Unless you think he'll win the French Open and a bunch of other clay tourneys with only decent results on other surfaces.
-- Serene Chen, Vernon Hills, Ill.

Every time I see Nadal play, I'm more and more impressed -- not just by his precocious game but also for his taste for combat. The guy relishes the big matches and feels comfortable on the bigger stages. This, ultimately, counts for more than a perfectly rounded game or a 130 mph serve. Realistically, Nadal is probably a year or two away from winning the French, but I could see him making the semis at Roland Garros, winning one of the clay TMS events and then maybe one or two lesser events. If he does that and plays relatively injury-free -- what do we make of last week's chest pains? --- for the rest of the year, who knows?

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/jon_wertheim/01/17/mailbag/index.html


He had more faith in Rafa than we did.

I think Rafa could contend for No. 1 at some time in his career, but that's down the road.

And some of the Spanish-speaking players in Barca were asked about this, and they talked about him in a televised segment in Spain. This info was translated and provided by a Spanish fan. Thought some of you may find it interesting:

* Gaston Gaudio: " Hes in an incredible and spectacular form. Surely he will be French open champion . I like a lot the way he plays "

* Juan Monaco: " Hes a genius and will be No. 1 . Im happy watching what is happening to him "

* Albert Costa : " Hes from another planet."

* Felix Mantilla : " Out of courts he is still a boy, but on courts he seems to be a 30 year old person."

* Feliciano Lopez : " Hes the No. 1 on clay . Hes very strong mentally and his game is improving every day."

* Carlos Moya :" He has shown hes a great player and one of the favourites for Roland Garros. "

SydW
04-22-2005, 04:01 AM
obviously somebody is obsessed with nadal here, and any reasonable argument is met with some sort of angry reply.


Tell me about it.

VamosRafa
04-22-2005, 10:59 AM
Some statistics that are relevant to this thread. They just came out, because Rafa just moved into the Top 10 -- we think he's No. 9:

Nadal will enter the top 10 for the first time in his career

- He is the first left-hander to rank in the Top 10
in more than five years since Chilean Marcelo Rios was No. 8 on April 17, 2000.

He is also the first teenager to break into the Top 10 since Andy Roddick (at 19 years, 11 months) on Aug. 5, 2002 and the youngest to break in the Top 10 since Andrei Medvedev (at 18 years, 9 months) on June 7, 1993. Nadal is 18 years, 10 months.

- He is the 16th left-handed player (and youngest) and 121st player overall to break into the Top 10 in the history of the ATP Rankings (since 1973). He will also be the 13th Spaniard (and youngest) to break into the Top 10.

- His 33 match wins this season (33-6) has already surpassed his total of last year (30-17) and is second on the ATP circuit in 2005 behind Roger Federer (35-2). His three ATP titles is also second to Federer's five.


And one more thing, Carlos Moya said this in Hamburg 2003 -- almost exactly two years ago.

"I've known Rafael since he was 10 and day after day he keeps impressing me more and more. He's the best 16-year-old I have ever seen. I believe Nadal will be a top-10 player inside the next two years." - Carlos Moya (ATP player and Rafael's mentor)

VamosRafa
04-22-2005, 11:29 AM
And to balance things a bit, here's a quote from Marat Safin:

"Well Nadal is a good player and so what? All people is talking and talking about him now and then they will forget as they did with Moy, Ferrero and Costa. There are a lot of good Spaniard players. But it is always the same: talk, talk, talk about someone and then forget."

Kevin Patrick
04-22-2005, 11:35 AM
thanks for the stats, susan. it's interesting to see how often medvedev's name comes up in relation to nadal recently(youngest to win monte carlo since, etc) hope he can stay healthy & motivated unlike medvedev.

121 players have been in the top 10 since '73? interesting, & only 16 lefties..

federerhoogenbandfan
04-22-2005, 01:06 PM
I think it is highly unlikely he could reach #1 this year. He would need to get a huge lead over Roger Federer coming out of the French. Roger will probably have some success on clay, 150 points is alot, he would have to somewhat dominant I believe to even come out tied after the clay court season. On grass and indoors Roger will post much better results, he almost gauranteedly will win Wimbledon and the year-end again. Nadal's performance at Nasdaq shows he is a contender on hard courts, even if he matched Roger's results on hard courts this summer though, which I doubt, he would still be well behind due to Roger's superiority grass and indoors, Roger is still the favorite to win both Wimbledon and the U.S open we should remember as well.

Hops
04-22-2005, 07:56 PM
[QUOTE=VamosRafa]Some statistics that are relevant to this thread. They just came out, because Rafa just moved into the Top 10 -- we think he's No. 9:

Yes. If he wins Barcelona - #7.


[QUOTE=VamosRafa]He is also the first teenager to break into the Top 10 since Andy Roddick (at 19 years, 11 months) on Aug. 5, 2002 and the youngest to break in the Top 10 since Andrei Medvedev (at 18 years, 9 months) on June 7, 1993. Nadal is 18 years, 10 months.


You might find this list interesting:

http://www.tennis28.com/rankings/RM_Top10.html


menu at top gives other ranking milestones. Career high by age/date has all top ten players since rankings began. Nadal will be added next week.

gugafanatic
04-22-2005, 07:58 PM
Based on the above Nadal will be at No 3 in the all time lists of youngest players to break the top 10, Amazing!

Hops
04-22-2005, 08:13 PM
Based on the above Nadal will be at No 3 in the all time lists of youngest players to break the top 10, Amazing!


no, this chart only has players that were in top ten sometime between Aug 1994 - present. Read 'Milestone Help' from the pulldown menu. Don't have complete ranking lists before 8/94 (i.e. SteveG site) - so for Agassi, Becker, e.g. made estimates that are likely correct if not off by one week or so.

Borg, e.g. was surely top ten when rankings debuted in Aug 1974, when he was 18y 2m.

not to take anything away from Nadal, who is making a name for himself on many 'youngest ever' lists.

DashaandSafin
04-23-2005, 06:17 PM
Whose Medeve? did he burn out or something?