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gugafanatic
05-04-2005, 05:48 PM
Yes believe it or not, but if Nadal wins Rome he will be 10 points behind Roger Fed in the ATP RACE. One expects him to do better then Federer at RG, soo surely we are looking at a new number 1 in a matter of a few weeks. Amazing transformation in form by Nadal, no one expected him to playing at such a high level soo early is hes career.

Grinder
05-04-2005, 06:01 PM
I believe you mean the ATP Indesit 2005 Race, not the ATP Entry rankings, which are more important. All the Indesit 2005 Race does is determine who can play in the year ending Masters Cup.

VamosRafa
05-04-2005, 06:09 PM
No one is higher on than Nadal than me. I can safely say that. *lol* And I agree with you that no one, not even me, thought he would be posting these results this early in his career. Only Jon Wertheim thought that. And I thought Jon was off his rocker. *apologiestoJon*

But as Rafa says, he's never played RG before; that will be a real test for him, especially if he gets into the second the week. He's still in the learning mode when it comes to slams.

Having said that, I don't think Roger's No. 1 status is in serious jeopardy this year. He's proven that over the past two years he's the best, and the only issue, quite frankly, has to do with his feet. If that's not a serious issue, I suspect Roger will be back and in good form for grass, if not before then.

Rafa doesn't have much to defend from now on, even in the requireds. And he's pretty much maxed out his optional event items this year. So there's a good chance he will qualify for Shanghai if he stays healthy -- and to be frank, I didn't think he would get that high this year. But I don't see him challenging for No. 1 -- this year!

gugafanatic
05-04-2005, 06:10 PM
I believe you mean the ATP Indesit 2005 Race, not the ATP Entry rankings, which are more important. All the Indesit 2005 Race does is determine who can play in the year ending Masters Cup.

Not really it gives a true indication of current form, and being number one (Nadal) suggests he is the best player currenly during 2005.

gugafanatic
05-04-2005, 06:14 PM
No one is higher on than Nadal than me. I can safely say that. *lol* And I agree with you that no one, not even me, thought he would be posting these results this early in his career. Only Jon Wertheim thought that. And I thought Jon was off his rocker. *apologiestoJon*

But as Rafa says, he's never played RG before; that will be a real test for him, especially if he gets into the second the week. He's still in the learning mode when it comes to slams.

Having said that, I don't think Roger's No. 1 status is in serious jeopardy this year. He's proven that over the past two years he's the best, and the only issue, quite frankly, has to do with his feet. If that's not a serious issue, I suspect Roger will be back and in good form for grass, if not before then.

Rafa doesn't have much to defend from now on, even in the requireds. And he's pretty much maxed out his optional event items this year. So there's a good chance he will qualify for Shanghai if he stays healthy -- and to be frank, I didn't think he would get that high this year. But I don't see him challenging for No. 1 -- this year!

Just in case you are confused, he will be ten points behind Fed in the ATP CHAMPIONS RACE if he wins Rome. Soo effectively he has a great shot at overtaking Fed, if he does better then him at RG. Personally I think the chances of this happening are very high, soo Nadal will be world no 1 based on results this year. SUSAN I thought you would be excited and I really expected you to have more oil in your lamp then that.

VamosRafa
05-04-2005, 06:48 PM
Just in case you are confused, he will be ten points behind Fed in the ATP CHAMPIONS RACE if he wins Rome. Soo effectively he has a great shot at overtaking Fed, if he does better then him at RG. Personally I think the chances of this happening are very high, soo Nadal will be world no 1 based on results this year. SUSAN I thought you would be excited and I really expected you to have more oil in your lamp then that.

I'm not confused at all re the points situation, but Rafa is still a ways from winning Roma. Look at the others posts -- based on those, Henman is on his way to that title. *lol*

I've been following tennis for a long time, as you know. Players go on hot streaks, and they cool off, etc. Rafa has been on an incredible streak, and again, I think he could do well enough to put himself in a position for the year-end Masters Cup.

But he's 18, and I don't think he has the experience to get himself to the No. 1 spot, regardless of Federer, who will be the No. 1 this year, IMO, unless he does have an injury issue.

Believe me, I'm thrilled with Rafa's results, but I'm trying to be realistic here. I told you all he had potential, and I knew he'd be a great player some day -- otherwise I wouldn't have invested the time in the website. But he has a few things to improve, and when he does that, he will truly compete for No. 1. He's got the right attitude and mental ability, so that's not an issue.

That's my view. But perhaps you are right, and I'm overestimating Fed and the rest of the top players.

Chloe
05-04-2005, 07:50 PM
The race needs to die a swift, horrible death.

verdasco67
05-04-2005, 09:02 PM
Not really it gives a true indication of current form, and being number one (Nadal) suggests he is the best player currenly during 2005.

he may be the best player in 2005 but is not near being world number one

TwistServe
05-04-2005, 09:20 PM
Heman wishes he'll make it to the finals in Rome.. He probably has better chance than making it to the finals of wimbledon but still has no chance hahahahah

VictorS.
05-04-2005, 09:39 PM
I don't see any reason why Nadal can't contend for the #1 spot this year. He's dominating the clay court season with ease right now and he's proven he can post good results on the hard courts.

Although it'd be pretty surprising, it's not out of the realm of possibility for Federer to not win a slam this year. Obviously it will take a superhuman effort at wimbledon but I could see a guy like Ljubicic or Ancic possibly upsetting him on grass.

SydW
05-04-2005, 10:31 PM
Not really it gives a true indication of current form, and being number one (Nadal) suggests he is the best player currenly during 2005.

Come back and say that when it happens.

I believe Hrbaty was close to being the no.1 early last year as well.

Nero
05-04-2005, 10:45 PM
Speaking about Nadal,he can generate those nasty topspins that buzz like hornets and are a b*%ch to handle :mrgreen: As a commentator said, he could generate as much spin a those banned double strung rackets..

Rafa Nadal
05-05-2005, 12:02 AM
I dont think, that Rafa goes to No1 since Roger plays in the ATP, but the number 2 is realistic for me at the moment.

VictorS.
05-05-2005, 07:10 AM
At this point, I would be surprised if Nadal doesn't win the French Open. He's really playing well right now. He has an opportunity to rack up some points right now. The only way he'll be able to get the #1 spot is if he can post good results at the us open and/or the tms series tourneys such as toronto, cincinnati, madrid, paris, etc. In addition, Federer has to lose a few big matches here and there. If Federer wins wimbledon....it's gonna be tough.

splink779
05-05-2005, 08:00 AM
We saw how hot Nadal was in Miami on hard courts. The grass season is short (not so many points for Fed to collect), so if Nadal keeps it up, he will be a serious contender. By the way, Federer will not win the US Open this year.

Jack the Hack
05-05-2005, 03:27 PM
This thread is just proof that the stupid ATP Champions Race needs to be eliminated! The Race standings were supposed to generate excitement for tennis in the same way that NASCAR points work.

However, if a group of tennis fans that are die hard enough to post messages on a tennis message board are confused by the Race, then what hope does the general public have of understanding it?

The points race has nothing to do with RANKINGS. A player's world ranking is determined by the ATP Entry system, which is the same computer ranking system that has been in place since the 70s. Currently, Roger Federer is #1 by a huge margin, and Nadal is ranked #7. The full list can be found here: http://www.atptennis.com/en/players/entrysystem/

The stupid Race standings have led some non-tennis people to ask me how players like Ivan Ljubicic "became #1 in the world" when it was only due to them winning or playing well within the first couple weeks of the year. Earlier this year, there was even an unfortunate story distributed worldwide over the Associated Press that said "Federer hopes to regain the #1 ranking at the Pacific Life Open"! Federer is the clear #1 in the world, but the author had mistaken the Race standings as the world rankings, which had Safin at #1 and Federer at #4!!!

(This is a PR nightmare...)

West Coast Ace
05-05-2005, 04:17 PM
Jack, a) don't have a stroke over it; b) if 'non-tennis' people are asking you questions, that's a a good thing - even if it's over something that doesn't really matter. Those who know - and matter - know Nadal has to win a major or win a number of big events on hard/grass/carpets to be a real #1.

gugafanatic
05-05-2005, 04:22 PM
I diasgree with the above comments because the ATP RACE is a clear indication of current form, providing you ignore the first couple of months. It shows you who is the hottest player at the moment, and gives an indication of players that are having a good year and rapidly ascending the rankings. Nadal will be world no 1 in my eyes, if he is to win Rome and then further Fed at RG.

kv581
05-05-2005, 04:36 PM
I diasgree with the above comments because the ATP RACE is a clear indication of current form, providing you ignore the first couple of months. It shows you who is the hottest player at the moment, and gives an indication of players that are having a good year and rapidly ascending the rankings. Nadal will be world no 1 in my eyes, if he is to win Rome and then further Fed at RG.
Not really true. By October or so, the Race essentially equals the entry rankings. How would that show who's the "hottest" player at the moment? By that point, the Race would be showing the results of an entire calender year, which is what entry rankings try to do on a 52-week rolling basis. If you dismiss entry rankings now, then you must do the same for the Race later this year. Ultimately, the Race is too inconsistent to be of any real use.

On the other hand, if ATP has a 2-month rolling point system (ie. only include results from the past 60 days), then you can perhaps see who the hottest player is at the time.

Jack the Hack
05-05-2005, 05:42 PM
gugafanatic,

Let me ask something in a different way... who would you say is the #1 player in the world between these two players?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player A: 76-4 overall record and winner of 12 tournaments, including 2 Grand Slams and 4 Masters Series (on multiple surfaces).

Player B: 61-17 overall record and winner of 7 tournaments, including 1 Grand Slam and 2 Masters Series (all on clay).

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Player A would represent Federer's record from June of last year up until the end of the French Open this year, assuming he didn't play another match until then.

Player B would represent Nadal's record from June of last year up until the end of this year's French, assuming IF (and that's a big IF) he were to go undefeated in the next few weeks and win both Rome and the French.

In my opinion, Federer will easily be considered the best player in the world even if he didn't win another match in May or early June. If Nadal wins the French Open, he will be considered the 2005 "King of Clay" and will be the tour's hottest player, but will not have earned the title of world's best player or world #1. (In fact, his new found glory will be severely tested when the grass and hard court seasons roll around since all of his tournament wins have been on clay!)

The #1 ranking is not to be taken lightly. Since the computer ranking system was introduced in 1973, only about 16 or 17 players have ever reached #1... and this honor is a result of their hard work and accomplishments over a 12 month period, not a hot month or two.

I can agree that the Race standings can give some indication of a player's achievements at that moment, but hope that you can see that this points list should be taken in context with the whole record of a player over the past 12 months, which is what the Entry system correctly shows.

gugafanatic
05-05-2005, 06:48 PM
Okay lets assume Nadal achieves the number 1 spot in the ATP RACE over the 12 months but is no 2 behind Fed in the entry system.

Soo effectively he is the yr end world no 1, but not truely the world no 1 if you get what i mean. Wouldnt Nadal recieve the trophy for ending no 1 in the race?????

VamosRafa
05-05-2005, 07:02 PM
Sorry to interrupt, but I didn't want to start a new Nadal thread. *lol* But I thought this was funny. Juan Monaco may have been fed a double bagel, but Rafa will be buying all his dinners in Paris. This is an an article in an Argentine tennis site, by Juan (as translated to English). He seems to have quite a sense of humor:

Every time Rafa and I meet each other at a tournament, we play soccer on the Play Station like our lives depend on it. Who wins? Me, always. He didn’t say that he wins? He shouldn’t lie, because I’ll kill him.

Even when he plays with Real Madrid, which has the best players, he can’t beat me. I always choose Inter and he ends up being upset because I have a great defensive plan, a 4-4-2 like Mostaza Merlo.

Before, he used to play with Manchester, but he changed to Real Madrid to have more chances. The last time he beat me was in Monte Carlo, before he played against Rochus: 3-2 when I was already bored. But before that, I had beaten him, 4-0, 9-2, which was the biggest victory ever, haha. And in that last match he gave everything. He scored the 8-2 goal and he screamed like mad. Once, he even broke the control throwing it against a freezer… He was really upset.

I’m friends with Rafa since we began in pros. We used to meet in juniors, but he had his gang. I always talk with him and what he did in this last part of the tour doesn’t surprise me. I watched his matches against Hrbaty and Muller in Barcelona, and he really was awesome.

He’s unstoppable. I already told him this the first day in Monte Carlo. He hadn't even entered the court, and I bet him that he’d arrive as the 8th in the ranking to Roland Garros. He’s the 7th, so I’ve won all the dinners in Paris. I’ve saved 50€ per meal, *lol*. I sent him an sms as soon as the Godó final finished which said: “Come on, prepare the money”. He answered: “I wanna die!”

need2paint
05-05-2005, 07:05 PM
guga,
the points race is meaningless. as someone else said...... oh forget it!

i think your comments prove jacks's point that the points race is unnecessary and confusing. look at the yahoo sports tennis page and it lists nadal as the #2 player in the world. he is not. he is #7.

Max G.
05-05-2005, 09:22 PM
Okay lets assume Nadal achieves the number 1 spot in the ATP RACE over the 12 months but is no 2 behind Fed in the entry system.

Soo effectively he is the yr end world no 1, but not truely the world no 1 if you get what i mean. Wouldnt Nadal recieve the trophy for ending no 1 in the race?????

How is that possible? By the end of the year, the points race give the same results, basically. The only difference at the end of the year is that the entry system also takes into account lower-level tournaments like challengers - and I really can't envision a situation in which results in challenger tournaments would affect who ends the year at #1.

Jack the Hack
05-05-2005, 11:19 PM
gugafanatic,

As MaxG stated, if someone were #1 in the Race standings at the end of the year, they would almost certianly be #1 in the Entry system as well.

So, if your boy Nadal keeps up the winning ways for the remaider of the year, he would most certianly earn the #1 ranking and be considered the best player on the planet.

I like his game and want to see him do well... but I don't think he is ready yet. Once the grass and hard court seasons roll around, I think he will struggle.

Since the beginning of last year, Nadal's record on hard courts is 26-18 and he recorded 1st round losses at Chennai, Toronto, Cincinnati, Lyon, Basel, and Auckland. His best result away from clay was at this year's Miami Masters Series tourney where he lost to Federer in the final, but he got a pretty lucky draw and only had to face one seeded player one the way to the final.

In contrast, Roger Federer has compiled an overall record of 110-8 since the beginning of last year and has won 16 out of the last 24 tournaments he has entered! And while he is good on clay - two of his tournament wins were on clay last year - his game is best suited for grass and hard courts where he should easily outpace Nadal.

Nadal will have his time in the future, but right now, Roger Federer is the undisputed #1 player in the world.

activentures
05-06-2005, 01:22 AM
Heman wishes he'll make it to the finals in Rome.. He probably has better chance than making it to the finals of wimbledon but still has no chance hahahahah

No way, heman is playing tennis?? And there was me thinking he was a tv character. He's sick of conquering the Castle of Greyskull then???

activentures
05-06-2005, 01:52 AM
You always get a grinder doing well in the champions race at this time of year, and they normally rank highly on the entry system too. The challenge is trying to get some half decent form for the rest of the year. Think Coria in '04.

Rafa has played 4 more tournaments in the Champions race than Fed so far, and as you only take the GS's, masters series and 5 other results into consideration, come later in the year, its going to be quality not quantity. Fed did better at the AO, and Nadal will probably do better at RG. 1 each. All but die hard RN fans will expect better from Fed at Wimby and the open. So prob 3-1 to fed in GS's. As for the masters series, if Nadal wins Rome its 2-2 this year. Unfortunately for Nadal, only one of the remaining 5 are on clay.

http://www.atptennis.com/en/players/raceleaderboard/

This table illustrates how Fed must regret the missed match points against Gasquet and Safin, those cost him a lot of points.

Its actually quite interesting in a strange kinda way. The only advantage I can see of the Race is its easier to understand!!!

Jack the Hack
05-06-2005, 07:48 AM
"No way, heman is playing tennis?? And there was me thinking he was a tv character. He's sick of conquering the Castle of Greyskull then???"


It must be too early in the morning for me or something... but the image of He-Man running around a tennis court in his loin cloth made me laugh out loud! :) Does Skeletor have a one handed or two handed backhand?

(I'm old enough to have watched to old He-Man cartoons... the ones where the animation was so bad that when he ran, the top part of his body was still, but his legs moved!)

Free_Martha
05-06-2005, 11:54 AM
Federer's days as top dog are numbered.

nn
05-06-2005, 12:10 PM
sometime back it was said on this forum that he will be number 1 this year

@wright
05-06-2005, 12:14 PM
I'd say his days as top dog are numbered somewhere in the several thousand range.

The tennis guy
05-06-2005, 12:18 PM
We saw how hot Nadal was in Miami on hard courts. The grass season is short (not so many points for Fed to collect), so if Nadal keeps it up, he will be a serious contender. By the way, Federer will not win the US Open this year.

The slow speed of Miami hard court and fast speed of hard courts during the summer are night and day. Nadal hasn't proved what he can do on fast court at all.

The tennis guy
05-06-2005, 12:28 PM
I diasgree with the above comments because the ATP RACE is a clear indication of current form, providing you ignore the first couple of months. It shows you who is the hottest player at the moment, and gives an indication of players that are having a good year and rapidly ascending the rankings. Nadal will be world no 1 in my eyes, if he is to win Rome and then further Fed at RG.

Not necesarily when the season is not even half finished. The reason is very simple: they didn't play similar amount of events. Federer played 7 (4 slam + super 9, 3 other) while Nadal played 12 (4 slam + super 9, 8 others). The race counts all slam and super 9 plus best 5 of others (Nadal maxed out already but Federer is 2 short). So, from now on any other events Federer plays, it will add to his race points while Nadal has to drop existing points to replace with a new one if it is better result.

Unless Nadal can do better in remaining super 9 and slam events this year than Federer, he has no chance to be No. 1 this year. I highly doubt he can do better than Federer on grass, fast hardcourt and indoor than Federer right now.

Look at entry ranking, he is so far behind. Federer even didn't play indoor season last year.

Boy Wonder
05-06-2005, 12:45 PM
Nadal's having a great season, no doubt about that. I'm pretty sure if he continues to get these great results the rest of the clay court season, and do well on the grass and summer hard courts, he will likely finish within the top ten of the year end entry rankings and qualify for the year-end masters. Give him another year though to get that no 1 spot. Rafa is playing so well in this lead up to RG, he is well on his way to capturing another masters title!

spinbalz
05-06-2005, 04:03 PM
Like its name indicates, the ATP Race is just a race. And we have to take it like it is.

Gugafanatic, if I take for exemple the Olympic 100 meters running race, Would you say about a runner who is first after 40 meters because he is a great starter that he is the N°1 or the best in his discipline? And then your opinion about him would have to change only 1 second later because someone else passes him after 50 meters, and 1 second later your opinion change again because someone else is leader after 70 meters, and then your opinion have to change again 2 seconds later because again someone else passes everybody and finally wins the race? You see multiple leaders of the 100 meters race because different runners have different qualities/forces (great start, bestt accelaration after 20 meters untill 60 meters, best finish...) that help them to lead the race at one moment, but finally only one of them will win the race, and that one is the only one that we can say that he is/was the best.

For the ATP race it is exactly the same, some players have different forces/specialities, some are great on clay, some other are great on grass, some other are great indoor... and those specialities can help some players to reach a good position in the race for one moment, even if they will finally finish that race at a less good position, for exemple a player who is pretty good on slow hardcourts, and the best on red clay have strong chances to become the leader of the race in late May or early June, that is why Nadal can become the leader of the race soon (pretty good results on slow hardcourts, and the best on clay), but will it be right to call him the best or hottest tennis player? No of course, because before to call him the best or the hottest, he has to also obtain great results on other type of courts that will come later this year, I mean grasscourt, fast outdoor courts, and indoor, or he has to win so much more points than the other players on his favourite surface that nobody will be able to passes him in the race even if he has a weak "finish" (weak results on grass, indoor, fast outdoor). Will he be able to obtain good enough results after June to have a chance to win the race? With a player as talented as him, nobody can really know for sure, but I seriously doubt it, and if I had to bet my life on his ability to do it, i would bet that he won't be able to sustain his current ryhtm after june and won't win the ATP Race.

gugafanatic
05-07-2005, 06:32 AM
Your first analogy is weak, as how can you compare a sprint race to points accumulated over 4/5 months in the ATP Champions Race. The season is clearly underway and after the FO ,two of the slams woud have been decided. If Nadal is no 1, then it suggests he is the best player in the world in 2005. The race holds authenticity as its standings is a direct acceptance for players into the end of year masters. Furthermore I dont believe Nadals entry ranking is a true reflection of hes ability, as he is a vastly improved player this year and hes previous results were during the emergence of Nadal as a force on the ATP. The ATP Race is not just a Race, but it a Race to the world no 1 spot. Thank you

The tennis guy
05-07-2005, 07:44 AM
Your first analogy is weak, as how can you compare a sprint race to points accumulated over 4/5 months in the ATP Champions Race. The season is clearly underway and after the FO ,two of the slams woud have been decided. If Nadal is no 1, then it suggests he is the best player in the world in 2005. The race holds authenticity as its standings is a direct acceptance for players into the end of year masters. Furthermore I dont believe Nadals entry ranking is a true reflection of hes ability, as he is a vastly improved player this year and hes previous results were during the emergence of Nadal as a force on the ATP. The ATP Race is not just a Race, but it a Race to the world no 1 spot. Thank you

No, even if he is No. 1 in the race after French, it still doesn't mean he is No. 1 in 2005. The reason is what I said in previous posting: he has played the max 5 other tournaments while Federer hasn't. If everyone has played the max 5 other tournaments, if anyone is at No. 1 in the race, you can pretty much say he is No. 1 in 2005. Otherwise, it is a skewed result for the year, which is why so many people recommends ATP to abondon the race altogether because it causes more confusion. WTA has race point as well, it simply doesn't publicize it. ATP might do the same thing.

spinbalz
05-07-2005, 10:57 AM
Gugafanatic, I see that you don''t or can't or doesn't want to understand what I meant...

As you said the ATP Race is a race to the N°1 spot, and like in any other race it is only once that the race is over that you see who is the N°1 and it is never at the middle point of a race that we can define who is the best/N°1. A 100 meters race in 10 seconds or a race of 12 monthes is the same, the best is the one who win it, not the one who was just the leader for a short period at midpoint of the race. Currently the tennis players are almost at half of the race, they are at the same point as the runners of a 100 meters after 5 seconds. Can we say about a runner who is the best starter and alway the leader of the race after 50 meters that he is the N°1 one or the best even if he finishes only at the third position? Of course no, he was the leader after 50 meters because he benefited from his main force that is the best starter, and for Nadal it is the same thing, he may be the leader in june because the first half of the season is played on his favorite surfaces, but it doesn't make of him the best or N°1 player overall, because everybody knows (even Nadal himself) that he won't be able to win as much during the second half of the season because it will be played on surfaces where is his not yet quite as good as he is on clay and slow hardcourts. Can you understand that playing tennis on grass or indoor is not the same as on clay or slow hardcourts? I don't mean that you can't win on grass and clay (borg did it), but I mean that nadal has to prove that he can also win on grasscourts and fast indoor before we can call him the possible N°1/best player overall, and before he can hope to win the race one day....

If nadal is the first after six month, it doesn't suggest that he is the best player overall in 2005, it only suggest that he is the best specialist of slow harcourts and red clay... The best overall is defined by the sum of the results obtained on every types of surfaces, that is why we have to take a look at what have been done since 12 monthes ago we we want to see how really a player is/was good, because it is only within a period of 12 monthes that the players have the opportunity to play on every type of surfaces, and that is the point of the ATP entry ranking system.

You wrote : "The race holds authenticity as its standings is a direct acceptance for players into the end of year master",

Please don't forgot the acceptance is defined just after the last tournament played before the year end master, it is not defined after only 6 monthes in june, but only after 11 monthes in late november once every tournaments have been played on EVERY TYPE OF SURFACES, so the race holds authenticity only after 11 month and not in june like you fake to believe.

Just a question, if the race holds autheticity to define the rankings just after 6 monthes, why do you think that the ATP keeps the old tennis entry system to define who can enter directly in a draw? Isn't it the proof that the position in the race means nothing until it is not over?

The race holds authenticity? then I'm glad to learn that Fabrice Santoro was a legit N°1 player when he won the first tournament of the year, a few years ago. He still continues to laugh at it...

znawfal
05-07-2005, 11:06 AM
Come on ... We tennis fans should not even be talking about the Race points.

Basically it gives emphasis to tournaments at the the beginning of the year.

Indeed, at year end, the Points in the race multiplied by 5 will be accurately equals to those points on the Entry.

Go to last year and check it out.

E.g.: You get 1000 entry and 200 race for a slam. Also you get 500 entry and 100 race for TMS title.

The entry system is what counts. It reflects results over a 52-week period for a good reason: the reason is that over 52 weeks, all tournaments are counted. Whereas a race starts in January giving points (divided by 5 from the entry system) to each tournament won earlier in the season.

Thus it gives CLEAR preference to tournies early in the year i.e. the clay court players are at an advantage because you will be including the season from jan to may and excluding last year's june to dec.

The Entry system gives equal emphasis to all tournaments over the year.
The Race system gives emphasis to tournies early in the year converging slowly to the Entry system as the year progresses until reaching EXACTLY the same results at yearend (multiplied by 5) as the Entry system.

Otherwise organisers of wimbledon and us open would be lobbying for the season to start, say, in June then when the clay season is played at the 'end' of this hypothetical scenario, people like nadal (clay courters) will be exaclty where they belong in both the entry and race.

Simple.

Z

Jack the Hack
05-07-2005, 12:48 PM
spinbalz,

Just my two cents, but I thought your race analogy for the "Race" was a good one...

None of this really matters though... we'll just see how the year plays out. Nadal is great on clay, but has yet to win a tournament on any other surface. Also, Federer can play dominate tennis on anywhere... and players like Safin, Hewitt, and Roddick can certianly come on strong, so Nadal will have his work cut out for him if he wants to be #1.

Also, I don't think Nadal is a lock for the French considering that it will be his first time there, and there are a ton of good clay court players who are starting to play well (like Coria and Nalbandian). In addition, I am not sure about his fitness (both physical and mental) when it comes to winning 7 best of 5 set matches in a row. He kind of reminds me of Agassi in '88... the A-train was WOWing everyone back then as an up-and-coming teenage superstar, but Wilander beat him 6-0 in the 5th set in the French Open semi-finals that year. For an example of what I am talking about, look to his loss at the Miami tournament this year. He was playing well for 2 1/2 sets in the final, but he had a let down and allowed Federer to come back and soundly beat him in 5 sets. Nadal looks strong, but I don't think he is quite mature enough to pull off a Grand Slam championship yet... but he certianly has to potential to win quite a few within the next 2-3 years.

VamosRafa
05-07-2005, 12:56 PM
Jack, I agree with you. I don't think the Nadal camp thinks he's ready for an RG win either. He has little experience with slams, as you say. They have been trying to build his endurance by having him play doubles, and playing so many events. In the beginning, none of us could believe he was playing so many events going into RG, and then we realized, based on comments by Nadal and his uncle, that they realize Rafa can win best of 3, and that they should focus on the important best-of-3 events, and then see what happens at RG. In future years, when he has more experience, they likely would pace him more, to prepare especially for RG. That is not their goal here.

Having said that, with the right draw, he certainly could win. And I'm sure he's hoping to have a decent result, to get some more points. Rafa is pretty points obsessed. *lol*

As for the rest of the year, I think Rafa could post decent results in the requireds, as he'll have the benefit of seeding. I would be surprised at a hardcourt title, unless it's a small one, but I think he'll work hard on qualifying for Shanghai. He'll be aiming for Top 8, not No. 1.

Jack the Hack
05-07-2005, 01:17 PM
VamosRafa,

Wow!!! I thought for certain that all of the Nadal fans were going to hammer me for saying he wasn't ready to win the French yet...

Given that, as you said, if he were to get the right draw and advanced to the final without being too spent physically and emotionally, he is capable of winning this year... but it is unlikely.

However, to accomplish all that he has so far at only 18 years old, his future looks bright. I actually love watching him play and consider myself a fan, but I am realistic that it is very rare for a man to win a Grand Slam tournament before the age of 20.

Datacipher
05-07-2005, 01:25 PM
Did not want to get drawn into such an idiotic premise. However, I agree, the race analogy was good.

That is the reason why the rankings were designed to reflect an entire year. One thing Gugafanatic will learn(hopefully) is that players go on hot streaks all the time. Almost every player who has ever been a regular in the top 20,(and sometimes players outside it) have gone on hot streaks, where they are winning almost all of their matches. IF you go on a hot streak for 1+ years, then you deserve to be in contention for #1. That is the true significance of the #1 ranking(best results over the last year).

If you want to shorten the span to an arbitrary value, 1 week, 1 month, even 6 months, fine. It has increasingly less significance the shorter you go. No comparison. Holding the real #1 ranking for even 1 year means that you were turning in the best results for almost 2 years. Brad Gilbert was the hottest player on the tour for a couple months one summer, then lost in the 1st round of the USO. Not too many remember Brad as #1 on the tour and that is good.

Of course, even if you only want to argue about who has been the best player in this year so far, I can't put Nadal over Federer when Federer is 35-2, went farther at the AO and beat Nadal in the Miami final.

I once posted before that the rankings race was one of the most unfathomably stupid ideas the atp ever came up with. People were already having trouble understanding the real rankings, hey, let's add another! I have also run into a casual sports fan who once said "hey, who is this guy (insert journeyman) who beat (top 10) player on tv?" "he's #1 in the world!", then I have to go into an explanation of how he is only #1 because it's February. While the guy looks stunned "no, they said on tv, he's ranked #1!".

As shown by Gugafanatics multiple incorrect statements and ideas(ie.what if he were #1 in the race but #2 in the entry rankings at the end of the year, surely he would get the trophy!), even "fans" often have little clue how the rankings work and how to intrepret them. What a joke.

Datacipher
05-07-2005, 01:27 PM
VamosRafa,

Wow!!! I thought for certain that all of the Nadal fans were going to hammer me for saying he wasn't ready to win the French yet...
.

Susan has learned to underestimate her Nadal predictions because then if he loses, she can say "just as I said." but if he wins, she can crow about it as if he is her discovery and accomplishment. It's just part of her game.

gugafanatic
05-07-2005, 03:21 PM
Spin and Datacipher I agree that we should not conisder the ATP Race standings after 6 months, but if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months and not number 1 in the entry then I am more inclined to consider the Race position. I say this because, Nadal is a complete new player this year and he has reached hes optimum level of performance. In previous years he was considered too young and still developing as a player. Therefore if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months then I will tend to ignore the entry postion.

VamosRafa
05-07-2005, 03:24 PM
Susan has learned to underestimate her Nadal predictions because then if he loses, she can say "just as I said." but if he wins, she can crow about it as if he is her discovery and accomplishment. It's just part of her game.

Thanks for knowing my game before I even know it. Very impressive.

But truth be told, if folks look at my earlier posts, I really thought playing a string of best-of-five matches would be no problem for him, with a day in between.

But unlike you, Datacipher, I've watched all of his Monte Carlo and Roma matches, and his semifinal and final matches in Barca.

So in addition to the knowledge gleaned from interviews and articles, I have watched about 12 of his matches since Miami. Have you? If you have, you likely will note what I note, and that is he is a brilliant player for his age, but he has a terrible blister on his left hand, and is playing through that. He was very tired in the Barcelona final. If he hadn't finished Ferrero off when he did, Ferrero would have come back.

That's one thing Rafa did learn from Miami, and he's put it to good use since then.

I don't know for tomorrow. He may look better than he did at times today. I can't tell.

But why do I need a game here? Even if he loses, you can't erase what he's done, which is remarkable. I'm just expressing my views, based on the knowledge I have, for what it's worth. It's the same thing I'm posting on the Nadal site, to be frank.

But although I'm concerned short-time, I'm not concerned long-term at all. He's just starting, and he's going to get better.

And just think, when he's off clay, he'll be the HUGE underdog, so he can go out swinging and hope for the best, with virtually no points to defend. I'm sure the rest of the ATP is thrilled about that.

federerhoogenbandfan
05-07-2005, 03:29 PM
Spin and Datacipher I agree that we should not conisder the ATP Race standings after 6 months, but if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months and not number 1 in the entry then I am more inclined to consider the Race position. I say this because, Nadal is a complete new player this year and he has reached hes optimum level of performance. In previous years he was considered too young and still developing as a player. Therefore if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months then I will tend to ignore the entry postion.

You need not worry about what people will consider if Nadal is #1 in the race after 12 months. He wont be.

gugafanatic
05-07-2005, 03:33 PM
You need not worry about what people will consider if Nadal is #1 in the race after 12 months. He wont be.

Well with the way your boy Fed is playing I doubt he will be either. A tough draw in Hamburg and a post r 16 exist at the French certainly wont help.

federerhoogenbandfan
05-07-2005, 03:38 PM
Well with the way your boy Fed is playing I doubt he will be either. A tough draw in Hamburg and a post r 16 exist at the French certainly wont help.

Give me a freaking break! The grass, indoor, and fast hard court parts of the season are left. Federer, if you take of your rose-colored glasses, is likely to do far better on all those surfaces than Nadal, especially grass and indoors. Roger is clearly ahead of Safin, Hewitt, and Roddick right now, and guess what, all of those players are just as likely if not more to go out as early at the FO as Roger is.


You can doubt Roger is likely to be #1 in the Champions Race by November, and 2 out of 100 experts might agree with you if you are likely, LOL!

VamosRafa
05-07-2005, 03:46 PM
I know you guys are Fed fans, but if you were hard-core Fed fans (the way I am with Nadal), you'd be very worried about the extent of his foot injury. Maybe it was played up to get around the fine for Roma, but if it wasn't, it's an area of concern. If Rafa had pulled out with that injury, I'd be worried about the whole year, and not just one or two tourneys.

Again, I have no info other than what we've heard. But always, when you talk about a player, the "if he stays healthy" part has to be there. We sometimes take that for granted.

federerhoogenbandfan
05-07-2005, 03:55 PM
If it was that serious he would not be in the draw for Hamburg, Hewitt with his foot injury pulled out of a string of tournaments in a row, in advance.

VamosRafa
05-07-2005, 03:59 PM
If it was that serious he would not be in the draw for Hamburg, Hewitt with his foot injury pulled out of a string of tournaments in a row, in advance.

Granted, but Roger has lots of points to defend in Hamburg. As did Carlos Moya with Roma. And what did Carlos do? Played with a shoulder injury, when he had no business being on court.

federerhoogenbandfan
05-07-2005, 04:10 PM
I dont think his foot injury was that serious, I guess we will find out in Hamburg though.

VamosRafa
05-07-2005, 06:58 PM
I dont think his foot injury was that serious, I guess we will find out in Hamburg though.

I guess you will. And if he doesn't do well against an in-form Verdasco, you can blame his feet.

Datacipher
05-07-2005, 08:12 PM
Spin and Datacipher I agree that we should not conisder the ATP Race standings after 6 months, but if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months and not number 1 in the entry then I am more inclined to consider the Race position. I say this because, Nadal is a complete new player this year and he has reached hes optimum level of performance. In previous years he was considered too young and still developing as a player. Therefore if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months then I will tend to ignore the entry postion.

Hey, good for you gugafanatic. I'm glad you now agree. The thing is, if Nadal finishes the year in #1 in the race, he will be #1 in the entry or at least extremely close. If for some reason he was still not #1 in the entry, I would not yet consider him #1, but he certainly would be knocking on the door and were he to keep his form for even a month or 2 longer, should take the legit #1 position. Then he'll have earned the honor for sure!

federerhoogenbandfan
05-08-2005, 08:16 AM
I guess you will. And if he doesn't do well against an in-form Verdasco, you can blame his feet.

Well what else could it have been. :p After all it is the same player who was a point away from losing to Andy Roddick 7-6, 6-3 on clay and Roger has proven he is a better clay-courter than Roddick already.

The tennis guy
05-08-2005, 08:40 AM
Spin and Datacipher I agree that we should not conisder the ATP Race standings after 6 months, but if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months and not number 1 in the entry then I am more inclined to consider the Race position. I say this because, Nadal is a complete new player this year and he has reached hes optimum level of performance. In previous years he was considered too young and still developing as a player. Therefore if Nadal is no 1 in the Race after 12 months then I will tend to ignore the entry postion.

I guess you still don't understand race and entry. If you are No. 1 in race points at year end, you definitely will be No. 1 in entry.

The tennis guy
05-08-2005, 08:52 AM
I know you guys are Fed fans, but if you were hard-core Fed fans (the way I am with Nadal), you'd be very worried about the extent of his foot injury. Maybe it was played up to get around the fine for Roma, but if it wasn't, it's an area of concern. If Rafa had pulled out with that injury, I'd be worried about the whole year, and not just one or two tourneys.

Again, I have no info other than what we've heard. But always, when you talk about a player, the "if he stays healthy" part has to be there. We sometimes take that for granted.

Most likely he tried to avoid the fine. As with last year, Federer wouldn't play all 3 super 9 clay court events - most non-typical clay courters wouldn't play all three (Agassi and Roddick withdrew from Montel Carlo also). I don't think he is worried about defending his points in smaller events. His focus is on the big one.

I'd say Nadal is one of the favorites, but not the favorite. He has played too much before RG, he is wearing himself out. Except Muster, the players won most matches on clay before RG didn't win RG. Grinding on clay for two months before RG is tough. RG is best of 5 for 7 matches.

If I were in Nadal's camp, I would ask him to withdraw from Hamburg. His ranking is high enough now, his chance in RG is good enough, that he should rest and be ready for RG.

znawfal
05-08-2005, 10:33 AM
I guess you still don't understand race and entry. If you are No. 1 in race points at year end, you definitely will be No. 1 in entry.
Thank you "The Tennis Guy"

I was just going to say this ... Just multiply by 5 ;)

If at year-end Federer has 5000 in the entry and Nadal has 4000, it would mean (and vice versa) that Federer has 1000 in the Race and Nadal will have 800.

Z

westside
05-08-2005, 06:19 PM
Nadal is just 10 points behind Federer

Jack the Hack
05-08-2005, 06:54 PM
Nadal is just 10 points behind Federer

Yes, as of May 9th, 2005, Nadal is just 10 points behind Federer in the ATP Masters Race standings. However, he is 4,005 points behind Federer in the Entry system rankings, which are the true reflection of the world order.

As we have hashed over and over so far, the Race standings do not mean much in regards to the overall world ranking standings until the end of the year... ie, Nadal is not #2 in the world! He did move up from #7 to #5 in the Entry rankings due to the win in Rome, but will have to outplay Federer on the other surfaces throughout the summer to have any hope of being #1.

TheModernEra
08-23-2007, 06:26 AM
Some things change, some don't....classic thread.........

poplar
08-23-2007, 07:27 AM
Some things change, some don't....classic thread.........

this is a board of comedy. but it's sad becoz it isn't meant to be funny. nadal fans .... LOL

ninman
08-23-2007, 07:33 AM
One thing that probably won't change is Federer making another 5 finals, and probably winning all five, thus finishing the year as no.1 for the fourth time.

Amen to that.

phoony
08-23-2007, 08:41 AM
Nadal era is coming. He will reign soon if he still able to do his best...........really enjoy and fun watching his games. Strong bull fighter.

TheModernEra
08-23-2007, 10:02 AM
We are in Nadal's era right now. He may not be #1, but this is certainly part of his era.....he is a mental and physical beast.......

masha4ever#1
08-23-2007, 01:04 PM
jop nadal's era is coming.....but fed is still the king in men's tennis

chaz_233
08-23-2007, 01:29 PM
Buttpicker's era is coming? When? How? If it only weren't for Federer and Novak...

tennispro11
08-23-2007, 02:59 PM
Buttpicker's era is coming? When? How? If it only weren't for Federer and Novak...

I actually like that name. Buttpicker. LOL!