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joeri888
03-30-2010, 06:28 AM
I've been looking at some stats from Ivo Karlovic.

For 2010 it is like this:
1st serve percentage: 65%
1st serve win percentage: 85%
2nd serve win percentage: 49%

in every 100 service points he wins: 0.85 x 65 + 0.49 x 35 = 68.40 out of points won by Karlovic

If Karlovic went for a 1st serve on every 2nd serve he gets he'll win: 65 x 0.85 + 35 x (0.65x0.85) =74.6 out of 100 points won by Karlovic

I'll explain: He'll still hit 65 first serves in. He'll still win 85% of those. Which is already 55 percent of points on his serve. Of the remaining 35 points, instead of 49% on a normal second serve, he'll win 85% of 65% of those (presuming he's strong enough mentally to get as many first serves in at the second time of asking as he normally would) and lose the remaining points (35% of 35 points) on a double fault.

My Statement: Karlovic should never hit a second serve and just go for another first serve.

Thoughts?

Danstevens
03-30-2010, 06:39 AM
I've been looking at some stats from Ivo Karlovic.

For 2010 it is like this:
1st serve percentage: 65%
1st serve win percentage: 85%
2nd serve win percentage: 49%

in every 100 service points he wins: 0.85 x 65 + 0.49 x 35 = 68.40 out of points won by Karlovic

If Karlovic went for a 1st serve on every 2nd serve he gets he'll win: 65 x 0.85 + 35 x (0.65x0.85) =74.6 out of 100 points won by Karlovic

I'll explain: He'll still hit 65 first serves in. He'll still win 85% of those. Which is already 55 percent of points on his serve. Of the remaining 35 points, instead of 49% on a normal second serve, he'll win 85% of 65% of those (presuming he's strong enough mentally to get as many first serves in at the second time of asking as he normally would) and lose the remaining points (35% of 35 points) on a double fault.

My Statement: Karlovic should never hit a second serve and just go for another first serve.

Thoughts?

Sampras hit a pretty hard second serve and he did pretty well for himself. Don't worry, I'm not likening Karlovic to one of the all time greats of the game, I was just pointing something out.

I'm not sure if Karlovic should go for another first serve on his second, I can't imagine him being mentally strong enough to maintain a decent percentage. On the other hand, do I think he should edge towards a more aggressive second serve? Yes. Karlovic lives and dies by the serve and has very little to fall back on compared to other pros once the rally starts. You don't need to have to do the maths (as interesting as it is) to get the idea that Karlovic going for the second serve more could probably be quite beneficial to him as long as he could hold it together mentally.

tuk
03-30-2010, 06:48 AM
very interesting...never thought about it.....the numbers are correct and I wolud certainly like him to give it at least one try to se what happens....
that would be cool to watch as long as he can maintain the first serve percentaje around those numbers....

sh@de
03-30-2010, 07:31 AM
That is some cool analysis!

I don't think it works out though because of the mental aspect. I highly doubt his second serve success rate would remain at 65% if he were to hit it that hard. And if it drops, he's in trouble. It's a mental/confidence problem.

Kostas
03-30-2010, 08:37 AM
I'm actually coming up with different numbers (using your same statistics)....

I was going to try to figure out how bad his win% would have to be for this new strategy to be break-even for him.

I could be doing something wrong I if so I apologize but here's what I'm getting:

65 First Serves * 85% win = 55.25 points
+
35 Second Serves * 49% win = 17.15 points
=
72.4 points won out of 100

If he goes for 100 first serves:
65 First Try Serves in at 85% win = 55.25 points
+
35 Second Try First Serves with only 65% of them going in and still winning 85% = 19.3375
=
74.5875 points won out of 100

Or an increase of 3%.

What did I mess up?

03-30-2010, 08:39 AM
What did I mess up?

I got the same as you. 72.4 & 74.6. maybe the OP made an error?

Djokovicfan4life
03-30-2010, 08:41 AM
You're forgetting that in tennis some points are more important than others. Even Ivo has games where his first serve is in the crapper, and if he just wailed away on both it could be the difference between winning/losing the set. You can't just take an overall percentage and conclude that he'd do better this way.

LeeD
03-30-2010, 09:00 AM
Concur with DJ...
As you all know, there is much less mental pressure hitting a first serve than there is hitting a second serve. First serve is all about getting loose and carefree, to allow all the kinetics to work. Second serve is pressure.....you lose the point if you don't get it in. You lose the point if you get it into your opponents sweetspot.
Not talking mechanics here, talking mental pressure.
And as DJ said, plenty of times Ivo would miss his first serves 3 in a row....couple that with more pressure, he'd only get ONE of the remaining second serves in, to lose 5 points quickly.

djokovicgonzalez2010
03-30-2010, 09:03 AM
I've been saying this for a long time, the man can't play, he needs to go for it more

Bittabonga
03-30-2010, 09:08 AM
Be tall, hit big serve.

joeri888
03-31-2010, 02:51 AM
I got the same as you. 72.4 & 74.6. maybe the OP made an error?

You are right. I made a mistake. The point's still valid, but to a less extent. Maybe the 2% deficit will go away because of the mental aspect. But anyway, I think if you always do it like this and just hit 20 to 30 double faults in a match, you learn to deal with the mental side of it all.

I'd just like to see him try, especially against guys like Federer and Nadal who won't lose many rallies against ivo's second serve.

iamke55
03-31-2010, 06:41 AM
If he did this he would hit way too many aces. 78 is nothing if you don't hit any second serves!

Six.One.Tour.90FAN
03-31-2010, 06:46 AM
I've been looking at some stats from Ivo Karlovic.

For 2010 it is like this:
1st serve percentage: 65%
1st serve win percentage: 85%
2nd serve win percentage: 49%

in every 100 service points he wins: 0.85 x 65 + 0.49 x 35 = 68.40 out of points won by Karlovic

If Karlovic went for a 1st serve on every 2nd serve he gets he'll win: 65 x 0.85 + 35 x (0.65x0.85) =74.6 out of 100 points won by Karlovic

I'll explain: He'll still hit 65 first serves in. He'll still win 85% of those. Which is already 55 percent of points on his serve. Of the remaining 35 points, instead of 49% on a normal second serve, he'll win 85% of 65% of those (presuming he's strong enough mentally to get as many first serves in at the second time of asking as he normally would) and lose the remaining points (35% of 35 points) on a double fault.

My Statement: Karlovic should never hit a second serve and just go for another first serve.

Thoughts?

This is why your status is 'legend'!
Great analysis