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View Full Version : Just noticed- Nadal has a tough draw!


callmethedoctor
05-21-2010, 02:44 PM
So we all know Nadal is the favorite, but is this the year for him to be beat? Expect him to cruise through the first two rounds, but already in round three: Lleyton Hewitt. Not good, cuz of his Nadalesque will to win- he has the physical ability to upset most people in the FO (other than Nadal, right?), but, he probably won't. That's okay. But fourth round, here they come.

Nadal will probably play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic. Bellucci is a beast on clay, despite his ranking. We all saw Ljubicic beat Nadal earlier this year. But this is Nadal's turf, so he should sail, right? Wrong. On to the quarterfinal, where Nadal would be playing Fernando Verdasco, Fernando Gonzalez, or Nicolas Almagro. These are all high-ranking clay court specialists. Though Almagro may not have the stamina to last more than three sets, he surely has the firepower to beat most on clay. Gonzalez has arguably the biggest forehand in the game, and this is his favorite surface, though he's not really a specialist. Verdasco was my personal favorite to make it to at least the semis, maybe finals. Another very dangerous forehand on clay. That's pretty difficult for just the quarters so far.

In the semis he would play Novak Djokovic, Victor Hanescu, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, or Juan Monaco. Hanescu, Ferrero, Ferrer, and Monaco are more clay court specialists. They are extremely dangerous on clay, especially Ferrer. Here is proof. http://statracket.net/?view=stats/category.php As you can see, all the tough opponents play Nadal early.

The only tough ones in the other half are Federer and Soderling. So is Nadal still a favorite, with all those opponents wearing him down with possible many-set matches for someone in a late round to finally take him out? Or will he make it look like child's play once again?

Turning Pro
05-21-2010, 02:48 PM
you're such a drama queen :)

Ray Mercer
05-21-2010, 02:48 PM
Nadal will run through everyone unless he meets a big hitter having an awesome day.

Big_Dangerous
05-21-2010, 02:50 PM
So we all know Nadal is the favorite, but is this the year for him to be beat? Expect him to cruise through the first two rounds, but already in round three: Lleyton Hewitt. Not good, cuz of his Nadalesque will to win- he has the physical ability to upset most people in the FO (other than Nadal, right?), but, he probably won't. That's okay. But fourth round, here they come. Nadal will probably play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic. Bellucci is a beast on clay, despite his ranking. We all saw Ljubicic beat Nadal earlier this year. But this is Nadal's turf, so he should sail, right? Wrong. On to the quarterfinal, where Nadal would be playing Fernando Verdasco, Fernando Gonzalez, or Nicolas Almagro. These are all high-ranking clay court specialists. Though Almagro may not have the stamina to last more than three sets, he surely has the firepower to beat most on clay. Gonzalez has arguably the biggest forehand in the game, and this is his favorite surface, though he's not really a specialist. Verdasco was my personal favorite to make it to at least the semis, maybe finals. Another very dangerous forehand on clay. That's pretty difficult for just the quarters so far. In the semis he would play Novak Djokovic, Victor Hanescu, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, or Juan Monaco. Hanescu, Ferrero, Ferrer, and Monaco are more clay court specialists. They are extremely dangerous on clay, especially Ferrer. Here is proof. http://statracket.net/?view=stats/category.php As you can see, all the tough opponents play Nadal early. The only tough ones in the other half are Federer and Soderling. So is Nadal still a favorite, with all those opponents wearing him down with possible many-set matches for someone in a late round to finally take him out? Or will he make it look like child's play once again?

He's a beast on clay. Should he remain healthy and all signs point to him being 100%. I don't see any of those guys beating him.

rk_sports
05-21-2010, 02:51 PM
you're such a drama queen :)

lol...TW is such a frying pan ;)

pound cat
05-21-2010, 02:57 PM
The draw looks difficult ....Verdasco, Djokavic, et. but how many times have they beat Nadal on clay?

Verdasco...0
Djokavic 0

Don't worry

kournacopia
05-21-2010, 02:59 PM
As usual Nadal actually has a cakewalk draw. Somebody up there loves him.

*Val*
05-21-2010, 03:07 PM
Paragraphs? I aint chewing through that huge chuck of text!

callmethedoctor
05-21-2010, 03:08 PM
As usual Nadal actually has a cakewalk draw. Somebody up there loves him.

Really, cuz according to the chart of the statistically best clay courters, the only players above rank 18 on his half are Gulbis, Wawrinka, Soderling, and Federer.
And yes I know I'm a drama queen ;)
And read the names! There are some pretty big hitters up there! Yes, I know paragraphs are a little tough to swallow but hang in there, lol.

InvisibleSoul
05-21-2010, 03:09 PM
So we all know Nadal is the favorite, but is this the year for him to be beat?
No. Last year was.

cucio
05-21-2010, 05:12 PM
Paragraphs? I aint chewing through that huge chuck of text!

+1

Wall of text = fail

Learn to use that "Enter" key, there, that big one, under your right pinky finger.

rommil
05-21-2010, 05:18 PM
I'm not reading the OPs blabber but namelessone just got elbowed.

T1000
05-21-2010, 05:24 PM
Hewitt can't test Nadal on clay, his injuries have taken away his speed and firepower that he once had when he took Nadal to three sets in Hamburg

Verdasco, Almagro, Ferrer, and Robredo all bend over for him since they're all Spanish

Gonzo, Ljubcic, Hanescu, Djokovic, Roddick etc. pose no threat to him

Only Gulbis, Soderling, and Berdych can really hurt him besides Federer and guess what, they're all on the same side. This is the easiest draw he'll ever have on clay

kournacopia
05-21-2010, 05:30 PM
Nadal will probably win without losing a set.

ruerooo
05-21-2010, 05:34 PM
As usual Nadal actually has a cakewalk draw. Somebody up there loves him.

You're not a Roger fan; Roger speaks far more respectfully about Rafa than you do.
You're a *******. This thread isn't even about your (alleged) favorite.
In addition, your "argument" is ridiculous. You don't dare cite any of the players in question and speak about their records against Rafa. You're just here to rant and spit and drool. :roll:
You can stop trolling at any time.

callmethedoctor
05-21-2010, 05:35 PM
You think Gulbis is better than Verdasco, Ferrer, Gonzo? What about Berdych on clay? Don't think so.
Soderling easily beats them all, but that's about it. And we're not even sure if he's just a one-almostslam wonder or not yet.
I'm actually a Roddick fan. But that's beside the point cuz he's not making it past Ferrer, lol.
The real "cakewalk" draw is Murray. He may actually get to the semis! *shocker*

djokovicgonzalez2010
05-21-2010, 05:35 PM
No...
Bellucci is a choker
Ljubicic is injured
Verdasco AND Almagro can't play top players
Gonzalez is inconsistent

ruerooo
05-21-2010, 05:36 PM
The draw looks difficult ....Verdasco, Djokavic, et. but how many times have they beat Nadal on clay?

Verdasco...0
Djokavic 0

Don't worry

Are you talking about RG, or throughout the season? I mean, Nole did take home the Rome trophy year before last, and last year he wore Rafa out in Madrid so he didn't have 100% for the final with Roger.

T1000
05-21-2010, 05:38 PM
You think Gulbis is better than Verdasco, Ferrer, Gonzo? What about Berdych on clay? Don't think so.
Soderling easily beats them all, but that's about it. And we're not even sure if he's just a one-almostslam wonder or not yet.

Gulbis is the only guy to take a set off Nadal this year on clay, Verdasco got 1 game. Gulbis is easily better than those guys.

kournacopia
05-21-2010, 06:05 PM
You're not a Roger fan; Roger speaks far more respectfully about Rafa than you do.
You're a *******. This thread isn't even about your (alleged) favorite.
In addition, your "argument" is ridiculous. You don't dare cite any of the players in question and speak about their records against Rafa. You're just here to rant and spit and drool. :roll:
You can stop trolling at any time.

Uhhh, I didn't even mention Roger....you did.

Li Ching Yuen
05-21-2010, 06:09 PM
There's a higher chance that Nadal injures his knees while taking a bath than him NOT getting into this year's FO final.

No Drop Shots
05-21-2010, 06:56 PM
Paragraphs? I aint chewing through that huge chuck of text!

Thanks for letting us know you couldn't manage to read it all because 20'ish lines is too much for you to "chew through"..... a book must be a real jaw ache.

I thought the original post was a good analysis of Rafa's draw, I think he will win it again even though he does seem to have quite a hard draw. Would have loved to have seen him meet Soderling at some point on the way to the final. Personally I would like to see Fed complete the Grand Slam this year, and so am hoping one of those good clay courters you identified has an awesome day and knocks Rafa out; as Rafa seems to have the measure of Fed on clay by just constantly plugging his backhand.

Starfury
05-21-2010, 07:06 PM
Most of the supposedly tough opponents in Nadal's half are weaker versions of Nadal. Why should they win?

I'd give the best chances to Roddick or Djokovic, and he'll only have to face one of them in the semis, if at all.

roundiesee
05-21-2010, 07:15 PM
Thanks for letting us know you couldn't manage to read it all because 20'ish lines is too much for you to "chew through"..... a book must be a real jaw ache.

I thought the original post was a good analysis of Rafa's draw, I think he will win it again even though he does seem to have quite a hard draw. Would have loved to have seen him meet Soderling at some point on the way to the final. Personally I would like to see Fed complete the Grand Slam this year, and so am hoping one of those good clay courters you identified has an awesome day and knocks Rafa out; as Rafa seems to have the measure of Fed on clay by just constantly plugging his backhand.

I agree; I think the OP does have a point. But I also think that the overwhelming sentiment on these boards is that Rafa is playing so well at the moment, that none of those players mentioned should in theory pose any threat to him, especially looking at their dismal record against Rafa. I think most would feel that it's a far better draw for Nadal at this point, having Berdych, Gulbis and Soderling all on Roger's half.

Halba
05-21-2010, 07:15 PM
Most of the supposedly tough opponents in Nadal's half are weaker versions of Nadal. Why should they win?

I'd give the best chances to Roddick or Djokovic, and he'll only have to face one of them in the semis, if at all.

roddick lol wat a joke on clay, just serve

Halba
05-21-2010, 07:15 PM
I agree; I think the OP does have a point. But I also think that the overwhelming sentiment on these boards is that Rafa is playing so well at the moment, that none of those players mentioned should in theory pose any threat to him, especially looking at their dismal record against Rafa. I think most would feel that it's a far better draw for Nadal at this point, having Berdych, Gulbis and Soderling all on Roger's half.

the big hitters esp. gulbis not in nadal half is good news. nadal owns djoker on clay.

Pink_Shirt
05-21-2010, 07:37 PM
I think Federer has the harder draw. IMO.

reversef
05-22-2010, 12:24 AM
It could be better, it could be worse. I don't like to see Almagro in his quarter. My fear is that he's ready to have his real breakthrough, close to it at least. And of course, on clay, I would clearly prefer to see Djokovic in Federer's half and Murray in Rafa's part of the draw. :)

rovex
05-22-2010, 12:28 AM
Gulbis is the only guy to take a set off Nadal this year on clay, Verdasco got 1 game. Gulbis is easily better than those guys.

If a guy is serving bombs with 80% first serves for the whole match i think you'd be surprised if he didn't take a set of anyone.

Cesc Fabregas
05-22-2010, 12:31 AM
Gulbis is the only guy to take a set off Nadal this year on clay, Verdasco got 1 game. Gulbis is easily better than those guys.

Verdasco is top 10, Gulbis is not. Verdasco is a better player than Gulbis at this moment in time.

gold soundz
05-22-2010, 12:35 AM
Verdasco is top 10, Gulbis is not. Verdasco is a better player than Gulbis at this moment in time.

I think Gulbis will be top 10 by the end of the year. He can become a better player than Verdasco IMO.

zagor
05-22-2010, 01:01 AM
in round three: Lleyton Hewitt. Not good, cuz of his Nadalesque will to win- he has the physical ability to upset most people in the FO (other than Nadal, right?), but, he probably won't.


Hewit? You're kidding right? Nadal gave Hewitt the worst slam beatdown of his life at the FO last year when Rafa was terribly injuried and could barely walk so what chances does he have against a healthy Nadal?

P_Agony
05-22-2010, 02:09 AM
Nadal crushed Hewitt so badly last year, what makes you think Hewitt stands a chance this year? Verdasco won just one game from Nadal in MC, Almagro is a clown. It's scary that the only worthy guy to make an interesting match with Nadal is Bellucci.

P_Agony
05-22-2010, 02:10 AM
Hewit? You're kidding right? Nadal gave Hewitt the worst slam beatdown of his life at the FO last year when Rafa was terribly injuried and could barely walk so what chances does he have against a healthy Nadal?

Wouldn't say it was the worst, but it's right up there.

P_Agony
05-22-2010, 02:13 AM
Verdasco is top 10, Gulbis is not. Verdasco is a better player than Gulbis at this moment in time.

Verdasco is an overall better player, sure, but against Nadal he's playing badly, and he's got such a loser attitude against Nadal (as proven in an interview not long ago) which makes Gulbis the toguher opponent for Nadal, no matter the ranking.
If Verdasco wins more than 6 games in the match against Nadal I would be surprised.

pound cat
05-22-2010, 02:21 AM
Are you talking about RG, or throughout the season? I mean, Nole did take home the Rome trophy year before last, and last year he wore Rafa out in Madrid so he didn't have 100% for the final with Roger.

I'm talking about this.

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Players/Head-To-Head.aspx?pId=N409&oId=D643

ie actual matches won


"Wearing someone out" doesn't count in tennis stats.

Hitman
05-22-2010, 02:44 AM
The two guys that have beaten Rafa in anything meaningful on clay, such as a beating him at RG - Soderling, or beating him in a clay court final anywhere - Roger, are on the otehr side of the draw.

The only guy who truly gave Rafa a scare, Gulbis, is also on the other side of the draw. IMO no matter who he faces in the final, he will go right through them too.

I think a question some people will be asking is not many sets Rafa is going to lose on his way to the title, but how many games.

Omega_7000
05-22-2010, 03:04 AM
Nadal? Tough draw?

http://avidadetiago.apostos.com/files/LOL%20cat.PV__.jpg

ChopShot
05-22-2010, 03:06 AM
Verdasco is top 10, Gulbis is not. Verdasco is a better player than Gulbis at this moment in time.

A top 10 ranking matters little when one is bereft of the balls to actually beat Nadal. In this case, like Ferrer and the other spaniards, Verdasco practically bends over backwards for Nadal, in difference to Gulbis, who actually possesses enough testicular tissue to beat Nadal, given the chance. That, and far better shots off all wings than Verdasco, when on.

Halba
05-22-2010, 03:14 AM
Nadal crushed Hewitt so badly last year, what makes you think Hewitt stands a chance this year? Verdasco won just one game from Nadal in MC, Almagro is a clown. It's scary that the only worthy guy to make an interesting match with Nadal is Bellucci.

nadal took him down in a match at RG in the past. it was a tough match in the beginning but rafa had it - bellucci.

zagor
05-22-2010, 07:24 AM
Wouldn't say it was the worst, but it's right up there.

Actually from what I remember scorewise that was the least games Hewitt won in a slam match ever.The match was simply a slaughter.

Kunohara
05-22-2010, 07:32 AM
Nadal crushed Hewitt so badly last year, what makes you think Hewitt stands a chance this year? Verdasco won just one game from Nadal in MC, Almagro is a clown. It's scary that the only worthy guy to make an interesting match with Nadal is Bellucci.

Hmmm... Id think the double bagel he was fed by... Fed... in the USO 04 final was more of a beatdown and definitely more humiliating.

My opinion though.

Augustus
05-22-2010, 07:32 AM
Actually from what I remember scorewise that was the least games Hewitt won in a slam match ever.The match was simply a slaughter.

6-1 6-3 6-1. After that match everyone thought Nadal would cruise to another title.

Andres
05-22-2010, 07:34 AM
Gulbis is the only guy to take a set off Nadal this year on clay, Verdasco got 1 game. Gulbis is easily better than those guys.
Almagro also took a set off Nadal.

tacou
05-22-2010, 07:42 AM
So we all know Nadal is the favorite, but is this the year for him to be beat? Expect him to cruise through the first two rounds, but already in round three: Lleyton Hewitt. Not good, cuz of his Nadalesque will to win- he has the physical ability to upset most people in the FO (other than Nadal, right?), but, he probably won't. That's okay. But fourth round, here they come.

Nadal will probably play Thomaz Bellucci or Ivan Ljubicic. Bellucci is a beast on clay, despite his ranking. We all saw Ljubicic beat Nadal earlier this year. But this is Nadal's turf, so he should sail, right? Wrong. On to the quarterfinal, where Nadal would be playing Fernando Verdasco, Fernando Gonzalez, or Nicolas Almagro. These are all high-ranking clay court specialists. Though Almagro may not have the stamina to last more than three sets, he surely has the firepower to beat most on clay. Gonzalez has arguably the biggest forehand in the game, and this is his favorite surface, though he's not really a specialist. Verdasco was my personal favorite to make it to at least the semis, maybe finals. Another very dangerous forehand on clay. That's pretty difficult for just the quarters so far.

In the semis he would play Novak Djokovic, Victor Hanescu, Juan Carlos Ferrero, David Ferrer, Andy Roddick, or Juan Monaco. Hanescu, Ferrero, Ferrer, and Monaco are more clay court specialists. They are extremely dangerous on clay, especially Ferrer. Here is proof. http://statracket.net/?view=stats/category.php As you can see, all the tough opponents play Nadal early.

The only tough ones in the other half are Federer and Soderling. So is Nadal still a favorite, with all those opponents wearing him down with possible many-set matches for someone in a late round to finally take him out? Or will he make it look like child's play once again?

if the most challenging opponent Nadal sees through four rounds is Ivan Ljubicic or Belluci, that's not a very tough draw. then again, when Nadal is at his best there really aren't many players that are tough for him, especially who would be seeded to meet him before QF

Marius_Hancu
05-22-2010, 09:28 AM
No one mentioned Zeballos, 2nd round? Spectacular leftie

Ambivalent
05-22-2010, 09:29 AM
Wouldn't say it was the worst, but it's right up there.

The Federer 6-0 7-6 6-0 must have hurt more.

uNIVERSE mAN
05-22-2010, 09:36 AM
look, he's going to win this boring event, can we move on to grass already ffs

Omega_7000
05-22-2010, 10:06 AM
look, he's going to win this boring event, can we move on to grass already ffs

That is what people were saying last year too...until he lost & then got injured after his loss to Soderling...

caesar66
05-22-2010, 10:18 AM
I agree with being excited about grass. But IMO Nadal certainly has the tougher draw. Most of the people in Roger's half who have a chance to trouble him have had lackluster results this year and probably won't get the chance to test him, although a Cilic QF or Berdych SF could provide an upset. That said, Nadal's been playing out of his mind this year on clay so "tougher draw" might not even be important. Federer only shows up for the slams so I see him cruising to the final.

Does anyone do Racquetbracket on TennisChannel.com?

It's fun and free. I'm not spamming for it; a coworker sent me the link and I thought it might be fun to see other people's predictions.

Here is my bracket:

http://www.tourneytopia.com/RacquetBracketFrenchOpenATP/FrenchOpenATP/pool/EntryPicks.aspx?EntryId=147348&InviteLink=true

callmethedoctor
05-22-2010, 11:16 AM
What's really bothering me is that Murray's quarter is one of the easiest I've ever seen. The players worth watching are just Murray, Tsonga, Baghdatis, Youzhny, Berdych, and Isner. They're all awful on clay if you look at stats.

Whoops, my mistake, didn't see Gasquet there first round. That could really screw up my picks ;)

borg number one
05-22-2010, 11:34 AM
See this interview by Agassi on Nadal as the favorite at the 2010 FO. The article notes that both Soderling and Gulbis are in Federer's Quarter of the Draw.

http://www.foxnews.com/sports/2010/05/21/agassi-nadal-undeniable-favorite-french/

"The problem is that Rafa is so good with his feet that you believe he's on the defense and he has the ability to be just close enough to be offensive and it forces you to never know when to commit and when to count on being able to take over the point and the court," Agassi said. "That's the whole idea. If I throw a blow and know that you are slightly hurt, I'm going to make my next decision thinking that you're hurt, hit my best shot in the world and then I find you are really not really hurt and then I find myself being indecisive. You find yourself taking more risks and not playing the tennis that will get you over the line against him."

Marius_Hancu
05-22-2010, 01:13 PM
Agassi is poor prognosticator of Fed victories (see 2009). I hope to be the same this year.