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dandelion_smiley
01-17-2011, 04:23 AM
Found a cool website:
http://www.tennisbetting365.com/predictions/6-australian-open-2011-betting
compare 2 players and see which one is more likely to win (in %)

This one is great too:
http://www.tennisbetting365.com/best-tennis-player
shows us who was the best clay/grass/hard court player in every year and how particular players compare with each other
I like the part in which Andy Murray is rated higher on hard courts than Federer (late 2009)

dandelion_smiley
01-17-2011, 04:35 AM
Federer's win % probability against certain players:

Against:
Nadal 64 %
Soderling 75 %
Djokovic 80 %
Roddick 83 %
Nalbandian 88%
Del Potro 87 %
Davydenko 88 %
Berdych 83 %
Cilic 92 %

there's no Andy Murray...weird, but there's Jamie Murray

86 % against Simon
100 % against Falla lol

rainingaces
01-17-2011, 04:59 AM
Seems accurate enough, might use this for the pridiction league if its not cheating.

Jaime murray has a 45% chance against dimitrov find that hard to believe.

dandelion_smiley
01-17-2011, 05:34 AM
Nadal vs:

Davydenko 76 % (that's odd given he lost the last 4 matches)
Djokovic 64 %
Berdych 65 %
Del Potro 76 %
Ferrer 73 % (way too low)
Melzer 81 %
Nalbandian 75 %
Roddick 69 %
Simon 74 % (wtf)
Tsonga 85 %
Lacko 96 %

Donald Young 100%

NadalAgassi
01-17-2011, 07:37 AM
Nadal vs:

Davydenko 76 % (that's odd given he lost the last 4 matches)
Djokovic 64 %
Berdych 65 %
Del Potro 76 %
Ferrer 73 % (way too low)
Melzer 81 %
Nalbandian 75 %
Roddick 69 %
Simon 74 % (wtf)
Tsonga 85 %
Lacko 96 %

Donald Young 100%

On Davydenko are you talking just this Australian Open or in general. Nadal to beat Davydenko in a slam is of course probable, even on hard courts. Davydenko is a renowned big match choker.

Berydch at 65%, LOL! Nadal is a terrible matchup for even Berdych at his best, 99% is more like it.

Remember on Ferrer he has beaten Nadal in the past and often gives him competitive matches. He has a better shot than Berdych really.

dandelion_smiley
01-17-2011, 07:43 AM
On Davydenko are you talking just this Australian Open or in general. Nadal to beat Davydenko in a slam is of course probable, even on hard courts. Davydenko is a renowned big match choker.

Berydch at 65%, LOL! Nadal is a terrible matchup for even Berdych at his best, 99% is more like it.

Remember on Ferrer he has beaten Nadal in the past and often gives him competitive matches. He has a better shot than Berdych really.

I don't know what it's based on, recent form? ATP points accummulated? records in Slams, on hard courts? head-to-head?

I think they would easily make a case for Blake being a threat for Nadal on hard courts but look where he is now...Nadal would stand at something like 105% to win a match vs Blake now

TheNatural
01-17-2011, 03:06 PM
On Davydenko are you talking just this Australian Open or in general. Nadal to beat Davydenko in a slam is of course probable, even on hard courts. Davydenko is a renowned big match choker.

Berydch at 65%, LOL! Nadal is a terrible matchup for even Berdych at his best, 99% is more like it.

Remember on Ferrer he has beaten Nadal in the past and often gives him competitive matches. He has a better shot than Berdych really.

Those %'s account for the possibility of Nadal playing injured or getting injured during the matches. That adds an extra 20-30% chance to Nadal's opponents chances compared to playing uninjured Nadal.