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DMan
06-13-2011, 11:02 PM
Interesting, William Hill only rates Federer with 3rd best chance. I mean, he's only won it 6 times in 8 years. And hardly ever loses on grass. And just beat Djokovic on clay. And Djokovic has a poor record on grass.

OK then.

http://opensource.si.com/2011/06/05/the-early-lines-on-wimbledon/?sct=tn_bf1_a3http://opensource.si.com/2011/06/05/the-early-lines-on-wimbledon/?sct=tn_bf1_a3

Qubax
06-13-2011, 11:09 PM
I honestly thought that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic should all be 30% of the pie with 10% left over for the rest of the field...

and really these betting odds you posted more or less reflect these figures...

To me the most fair representation(and forgive me for doing it in percentages, just easier for me to interpret):

Nadal 35%
Federer 30%
Djokovic 25%
Murray 6%
The Field 4%(and I think the Field can be limited to Roddick, Del Po, Berdych, Sod)

1970CRBase
06-13-2011, 11:14 PM
dun understand how Sharapova can be 3/1. Too inconsistent and still no serve anymore. She's not made the second week of Wim since 2006. The only reason why I said she has a shot at it was because she actually managed to get setpoints on Serena last year, even lacking her old serve.

I really should put $10 down on Sabine Lisicki at 66/1

travlerajm
06-13-2011, 11:27 PM
According to the people that actually take bets, Federer is the #1 favorite (based on the best odds available).

http://www.nicerodds.co.uk/wimbledon-betting-odds

Big_Dangerous
06-13-2011, 11:36 PM
dun understand how Sharapova can be 3/1. Too inconsistent and still no serve anymore. She's not made the second week of Wim since 2006. The only reason why I said she has a shot at it was because she actually managed to get setpoints on Serena last year, even lacking her old serve.

I really should put $10 down on Sabine Lisicki at 66/1

She'll just get carried off on a stretcher in the third round again.


:)

PSNELKE
06-13-2011, 11:37 PM
I honestly thought that Federer, Nadal and Djokovic should all be 30% of the pie with 10% left over for the rest of the field...

and really these betting odds you posted more or less reflect these figures...

To me the most fair representation(and forgive me for doing it in percentages, just easier for me to interpret):

Nadal 35%
Federer 30%
Djokovic 25%
Murray 6%
The Field 4%(and I think the Field can be limited to Roddick, Del Po, Berdych, Sod)

Highly unfair in my book, giving Nolito 25% and Murrya 6. Nolito is toast on grass.

tennis_pro
06-14-2011, 02:42 AM
Highly unfair in my book, giving Nolito 25% and Murrya 6. Nolito is toast on grass.

Djokovic 2 semi-finals, 1 quarter-final of Wimbledon
Murray 2 semi-finals, 1 quarter-final of Wimbledon

At this point Murray is more likely to reach the semi-final but definately not when winning the whole thing is concerned. Djokovic in this kind of form can threaten anyone anywhere.

Besides, Murray is British and pressure gets to him in latter stages

dirtballer
06-14-2011, 03:36 AM
I think a lot will depend on the conditions. I think fast, dry conditions in the second week will favor Federer.

deluxe
06-14-2011, 03:56 AM
You guys are quoting some terrible odds. Hewitt 66/1? 610/1 on Betfair.

Current Odds:
Rafa 2.7/1 = 27%
Fed 2.7/1 = 27%
Novak 3.7/1 = 21%
Murray 6.8/1 = 13%

Wilander Fan
06-14-2011, 04:14 AM
First week is usually very different from second week because almost all the grass is gone and conditions slow dramatically. Nadal is vulnerable in the first week and could be taken out if he draws a good grass court player. It will be interesting to see who draws Isner.

batz
06-14-2011, 04:15 AM
Djokovic 2 semi-finals, 1 quarter-final of Wimbledon
Murray 2 semi-finals, 1 quarter-final of Wimbledon

At this point Murray is more likely to reach the semi-final but definately not when winning the whole thing is concerned. Djokovic in this kind of form can threaten anyone anywhere.

Besides, Murray is British and pressure gets to him in latter stages

Murray 2 grass court titles
Novak zero grass court titles

I can get my head round Novak being more favoured than Murray, but you are making him > 4 times more likely to win Wimby than Murray - which seems harsh given thier respective grasscourt records - although Novak's overall slam record is clealry superior to Murray's.

I'm not sure that it was pressure that made Murray lose his 09 and 10 semis - both matches were close and he lost to the better player on the day.

Comet Buster
06-14-2011, 04:35 AM
Murray 2 grass court titles
Novak zero grass court titles

I can get my head round Novak being more favoured than Murray, but you are making him > 4 times more likely to win Wimby than Murray - which seems harsh given thier respective grasscourt records - although Novak's overall slam record is clealry superior to Murray's.

I'm not sure that it was pressure that made Murray lose his 09 and 10 semis - both matches were close and he lost to the better player on the day.



I actually think Murray is the better grasscourt player out of the two. Let's see.


Wimbledon 06 - beat Roddick who was the 2nd best GC player at that time
Wimbledon 08 - lost against Nadal. The winner
Wimbledon 09 - lost to Roddick. The finalist who lost 16-14 to Federer
Wimbledon 2010 - Lost to Nadal. The winner



Djokovic I believe lost to past prime Safin in 08, Haas in 09 and Berdych last year. At least it took the 2nd and 3rd best grasscourters to actually beat Murray.

batz
06-14-2011, 04:36 AM
I think a lot will depend on the conditions. I think fast, dry conditions in the second week will favor Federer.

It didn't rain once last year and Roger went out in the QFS

Cesc Fabregas
06-14-2011, 04:37 AM
Nadal is hard to beat in the 2nd week when the baseline gets beaten up.

batz
06-14-2011, 04:39 AM
I actually think Murray is the better grasscourt player out of the two. Let's see.


Wimbledon 06 - beat Roddick who was the 2nd best GC player at that time
Wimbledon 08 - lost against Nadal. The winner
Wimbledon 09 - lost to Roddick. The finalist who lost 16-14 to Federer
Wimbledon 2010 - Lost to Nadal. The winner



Djokovic I believe lost to past prime Safin in 08, Haas in 09 and Berdych last year. At least it took the 2nd and 3rd best grasscourters to actually beat Murray.


Good points, well made - I hadn't actually considered it in those terms.

batz
06-14-2011, 04:41 AM
Nadal is hard to beat in the 2nd week when the baseline gets beaten up.

Nadal is hard to beat @ Wimbledon. Full stop.

tennis_pro
06-14-2011, 06:42 AM
Murray 2 grass court titles
Novak zero grass court titles

I can get my head round Novak being more favoured than Murray, but you are making him > 4 times more likely to win Wimby than Murray - which seems harsh given thier respective grasscourt records - although Novak's overall slam record is clealry superior to Murray's.

I'm not sure that it was pressure that made Murray lose his 09 and 10 semis - both matches were close and he lost to the better player on the day.

Djokovic 41-1 this year, Murray what, 20-7

batz
06-14-2011, 08:54 AM
Djokovic 41-1 this year, Murray what, 20-7

How many of the 43 were on Novak's least favourite surface?

tennis_pro
06-14-2011, 09:10 AM
How many of the 43 were on Novak's least favourite surface?

it's not the surface that matters here, it's the huge confidence that Djokovic is riding now

batz
06-14-2011, 09:14 AM
it's not the surface that matters here, it's the huge confidence that Djokovic is riding now

He was riding a wave of confidence, that's for sure. That wave may well have broken though, and he's going to need to find another one if he's to make his first Wimby final. He couldn't ride the wave he was on into the final of RG on one of his best surfaces, why will Wimby be different?

I'm being a bit of a devil's advocate because I actually agree with you that Novak is ahead of Murray in the favourites list for Wimby - I just disagree about how far - it's degrees for me, not orders of magnitude.

tennis_pro
06-14-2011, 09:18 AM
He was riding a wave of confidence, that's for sure. That wave may well have broken though, and he's going to need to find another one if he's to make his first Wimby final. He couldn't ride the wave he was on into the final of RG on one of his best surfaces, why will Wimby be different?

I'm being a bit of a devil's advocate because I actually agree with you that Novak is ahead of Murray in the favourites list for Wimby - I just disagree about how far - it's degrees for me, not orders of magnitude.

If that's the case, then fine. Moreover, I think neither should be that high for Wimbledon, it should be more like Nadal, gap, Federer, gap, Djokovic/Murray, gap and the rest

batz
06-14-2011, 09:23 AM
If that's the case, then fine. Moreover, I think neither should be that high for Wimbledon, it should be more like Nadal, gap, Federer, gap, Djokovic/Murray, gap and the rest

Agreed! I said exactly that in the 'Who is favourite for Wimbledon Thread'. Rafa is the man to beat - no questions. It then must be Roger - I don't care how many matches Novak won this year; 5 Wimbys beats it hands down. Then Nole, then Murray. I'd have ARod at the head of the rest.

Comet Buster
06-14-2011, 09:23 AM
Good points, well made - I hadn't actually considered it in those terms.

Don't get me wrong, losing to Marat wasn't a bad loss, simply because when he's fit and focused he can beat anybody. Losing to Berdych and Haas were down to Djokovic's lack of interest and poor play.

TMF
06-14-2011, 09:25 AM
Interesting, William Hill only rates Federer with 3rd best chance. I mean, he's only won it 6 times in 8 years. And hardly ever loses on grass. And just beat Djokovic on clay. And Djokovic has a poor record on grass.

OK then.

http://opensource.si.com/2011/06/05/the-early-lines-on-wimbledon/?sct=tn_bf1_a3http://opensource.si.com/2011/06/05/the-early-lines-on-wimbledon/?sct=tn_bf1_a3

Nadal doesn't agree with this. He will say it again that he's not the favorite and it's Fed, Nole and Murray are ahead of him. You watch.

batz
06-14-2011, 09:28 AM
(Murray has no chance. He can't even take a set off Rafa in 6 attempts at Wimbledon. Favorites:
1. Rafa
2. Berdych
3. Federer
4. daylight)

Murray lost 9 straight sets to Rafa before knocking him out of the USO. He got destroyed by Rafa in 2008, but last year's match came down to a few close points that Rafa played better on the day - a bit like their 2010 AO match in reverse.

Qubax
06-14-2011, 09:37 AM
Highly unfair in my book, giving Nolito 25% and Murrya 6. Nolito is toast on grass.

I think Murray can and will win multiple slams, and that he will one day win Wimbeldon...

BUT, I don't think that W19 can be Murrays first Major...I think Murray needs to win the Aussie or US Open - get the monkey off his back..and then he can win Wimbly in the future.

zagor
06-14-2011, 09:38 AM
He was riding a wave of confidence, that's for sure. That wave may well have broken though, and he's going to need to find another one if he's to make his first Wimby final. He couldn't ride the wave he was on into the final of RG on one of his best surfaces, why will Wimby be different?

I'm being a bit of a devil's advocate because I actually agree with you that Novak is ahead of Murray in the favourites list for Wimby - I just disagree about how far - it's degrees for me, not orders of magnitude.

Actually Novak may be going toward an early exit like say when he lost to Kohlschreiber in 2009 FO,I mean I certainly hope not but it would be stupid to deny that possibility.Novak(or Murray for that matter)can't recover easily from tough losses as Fed and Nadal do(even if he reacts better than them on court when he loses a match)and I'm sure losing to Federer of all people(no love lost between them),not getting #1 and most importantly a chance to fight for the FO title in the final hurt Novak a lot more than many people realize and more than he's gonna publicly admit himself.

batz
06-14-2011, 09:52 AM
Actually Novak may be going toward an early exit like say when he lost to Kohlschreiber in 2009 FO,I mean I certainly hope not but it would be stupid to deny that possibility.Novak(or Murray for that matter)can't recover easily from tough losses as Fed and Nadal do(even if he reacts better than them on court when he loses a match)and I'm sure losing to Federer of all people(no love lost between them),not getting #1 and most importantly a chance to fight for the FO title in the final hurt Novak a lot more than many people realize and more than he's gonna publicly admit himself.

I see this as a distinct possibility Zagor. Like you, I hope it doesn't happen; but if Nole gets a decent grasscourter or a hot big server in any of the first 3 rounds then I think he'll be tested. It strikes me that Novak's movement isn't quite as brilliant on grass (it's still bloody brilliant of course!) as it is on hard/clay. A bit like Murray on clay, it's a surface on which he needs to think about moving. There will also has to be a questionmark over his confidence levels given his RG disappointment (and it must've been a disappointment).

Can't wait to see how it all pans out. Would love a Novak V Murray semi or final.

Messarger
06-14-2011, 09:55 AM
Nadal doesn't agree with this. He will say it again that he's not the favorite and it's Fed, Nole and Murray are ahead of him. You watch.

"Well for sure i am playing well after Roland Garros so happy for that. But as always it is gonna be very hard to stop Roger and Novak. They are great players who enjoy this surface and if they play well it is almost impossible to win no? One of them is the best player in the history of tennis and other one is the best player on tour today so with this reasons they are favourite for Wimbledon."

TMF
06-14-2011, 10:29 AM
"Well for sure i am playing well after Roland Garros so happy for that. But as always it is gonna be very hard to stop Roger and Novak. They are great players who enjoy this surface and if they play well it is almost impossible to win no? One of them is the best player in the history of tennis and other one is the best player on tour today so with this reasons they are favourite for Wimbledon."

No they are not !

Fans, experts, book keepers believe otherwise. Except Nadal and uncle Toni of course...playing a repetitive mind game.
http://www.websmileys.com/sm/obscene/eck27.gif

NadalAgassi
06-14-2011, 10:34 AM
Nadal 60%
Federer 25%
Djokovic 10%
Murray 4%
Rest combined 1%

Seems about right. Nadal is actually good money at his current odds. I will probably put some down at him.

Backhanded Compliment
06-14-2011, 11:23 AM
Nole is getting better odds than Murray because he's demonstrated the mental toughness to win a slam... that's huge in tennis. But that aside I think this could be Murray's year. Nadal might be upset early... Soderling may take out Rafa, Fed, Nole or Murray in the quarters... he has the serve to make it happen.. if he's in the zone it's trouble for anyone. Same goes for Murray though. Fed is looking tough but Nole's ability to crack winners on both sides might really give him his first wimby and the #1 ranking. Counting Nole out seems like a mistake, he's actually my top pick. I think Murray could beat him in the final... the better serve being the potential deciding factor.

Nole and Murray are returning very well... other than the serve that's the key to wimby.

zagor
06-14-2011, 01:44 PM
I see this as a distinct possibility Zagor. Like you, I hope it doesn't happen; but if Nole gets a decent grasscourter or a hot big server in any of the first 3 rounds then I think he'll be tested. It strikes me that Novak's movement isn't quite as brilliant on grass (it's still bloody brilliant of course!) as it is on hard/clay. A bit like Murray on clay, it's a surface on which he needs to think about moving. There will also has to be a questionmark over his confidence levels given his RG disappointment (and it must've been a disappointment).

Can't wait to see how it all pans out. Would love a Novak V Murray semi or final.

No doubt about it,it all comes down to movement and Novak is a much better mover on HC/clay than on grass.If we were going just by who's more natural on grass and who's more high on confidence now I'd definitely put Murray ahead of Novak as a favourite by some margin but given that Novak is more proven in big slam matches l'd probably put them as equal behind Nadal and Fed.

I wouldn't mind another Nolandy final either,hopefully more contested than their AO final this year.It's interesting that such 2 talented guys who are the same age have only met once in a slam,most likely to do with them being in the era of giants like Nadal and Fed.

nadalbestclass
06-14-2011, 01:55 PM
According to the people that actually take bets, Federer is the #1 favorite (based on the best odds available).

http://www.nicerodds.co.uk/wimbledon-betting-odds

Looks to me like Rafa is the slight favorite, which he should be considering he's the defending champion and just won the FO. ANyway, I'm sure Rafa would b delighted to come in as the underdog.

nadalbestclass
06-14-2011, 01:56 PM
(Murray has no chance. He can't even take a set off Rafa in 6 attempts at Wimbledon. Favorites:
1. Rafa
2. Berdych
3. Federer
4. daylight)

Wow, Berdych? Man hasn't done much at all in a while now, and you'd put him above Fed??

Mainad
06-14-2011, 02:17 PM
(Murray has no chance. He can't even take a set off Rafa in 6 attempts at Wimbledon.

Actually Murray has only played Rafa twice at Wimbledon, 2008 quarters and 2010 semis.But yes,he was straight setted both times.

Tony48
06-14-2011, 04:40 PM
Odds, aka who did the best in the last tournament.

Odds are gloryhunters =p

Mainad
06-15-2011, 04:22 AM
(Yep, that's what I said, 6 attempts and nothing)

But he hasn't had 6 attempts to beat Rafa at Wimbledon.He's only had TWO!!!

mnm
06-15-2011, 05:13 AM
Fed 35%
Nad 30%
Djoker 20%
The rest 15%


I think Fed has a pretty good chance if he can get the positive energy from RG back. Grass is his best surface and the form is great.

stringertom
06-15-2011, 06:55 AM
First week is usually very different from second week because almost all the grass is gone and conditions slow dramatically. Nadal is vulnerable in the first week and could be taken out if he draws a good grass court player. It will be interesting to see who draws Isner.
Not just Issie...Ivo, Anderson & the German Kraftwerk twins (Kohlschreiber/Petzschner) to name a few. Plus even a qualifier or three (Tomic, Harrison & Guccione all are alive and need only one win each today to get in).