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View Full Version : How many slams for the Djoker in 2012?


Monsieur_DeLarge
12-18-2011, 01:35 PM
Does history repeat itself, and if so, what can we predict about Djokovic next year? Here's all the Open Era years where a player won three slams in twelve months, and how they fared subsequently...


1969: Rod Laver (aged 31) does the clean sweep of all four. The proper Grand Slam. Age gets the better of the Aussie veteran, though, and he never wins another major.
1974: Jimmy Connors (22) wins all three of the majors he plays in during one of the most dominant seasons ever. Wins none in '75, and only two more over the next seven years.
1984 [cheat inclusion]: John McEnroe (25) wins only two slams, but compiles a win-loss record never matched since, and it's acknowledged as another of the greatest ever seasons. JMac reaches only one more singles slam final.
1988: Mats Wilander (24) wins three of the four slams, snapping Ivan Lendl's three year stranglehold of the #1 ranking. Mats drops out of the top 10 the following year, and the AO semi-final in 1990 is his best subsequent achievement.
2004 / 2006 / 2007: Roger Federer (23) wins three of the four majors in '04, and repeats the feat twice in the next three years. 16 slams in total to date.
2010: Rafa Nadal (24) wins three slams in a row, on three different surfaces. Wins one in 2011.
2011: Novak Djokovic (24) wins three of the four slams, and is virtually unbeatable for the first nine months of the season. In 2012...?


So, Roger Federer is the only player in the Open era to win three majors in a calendar year, and win more than one the following year. Can the Djoker snap this jinx?


Regards,
MDL

tennis_pro
12-18-2011, 01:39 PM
Does history repeat itself, and if so, what can we predict about Djokovic next year? Here's all the Open Era years where a player won three slams in twelve months, and how they fared subsequently...


1969: Rod Laver (aged 31) does the clean sweep of all four. The proper Grand Slam. Age gets the better of the Aussie veteran, though, and he never wins another major.
1974: Jimmy Connors (22) wins all three of the majors he plays in during one of the most dominant seasons ever. Wins none in '75, and only two more over the next seven years.
1984 [cheat inclusion]: John McEnroe (25) wins only two slams, but compiles a win-loss record never matched since, and it's acknowledged as another of the greatest ever seasons. JMac never reaches another singles slam final.
1988: Mats Wilander (24) wins three of the four slams, snapping Ivan Lendl's three year stranglehold of the #1 ranking. Mats drops out of the top 10 the following year, and the AO semi-final in 1990 is his best subsequent achievement.
2004 / 2006 / 2007: Roger Federer (23) wins three of the four majors in '04, and repeats the feat twice in the next three years. 16 slams in total to date.
2010: Rafa Nadal (24) wins three slams in a row, on three different surfaces. Wins none in 2011.
2011: Novak Djokovic (24) wins three of the four slams, and is virtually unbeatable for the first nine months of the season. In 2012...?


So, Roger Federer is the only player in the Open era to win three majors in a calendar year, and win any the following year. Can the Djoker snap this jinx?


Regards,
MDL

1) Connors went on to win 5 more majors after 1974 including 2 in 1982 alone (aged 30)
2) John McEnroe DID reach another slam final after 1984, it was the 1985 US Open
3) Nadal won the French Open this year so it's not "none"

You're right, though, players who had dominant seasons found it hard to reproduce it the following year. Federer is the exception.

Monsieur_DeLarge
12-18-2011, 02:04 PM
1) Connors went on to win 5 more majors after 1974 including 2 in 1982 alone (aged 30)
2) John McEnroe DID reach another slam final after 1984, it was the 1985 US Open
3) Nadal won the French Open this year so it's not "none"

You're right, though, players who had dominant seasons found it hard to reproduce it the following year. Federer is the exception.

Yeah, it's getting late here, and my browser logged me out halfway through my post. I got slack about double-checking my facts before I posted. :oops:

I fixed JMac and Nadal, although what I said about Connors stands. The point of the poll is really a comparison of banner years against what a player does in the next twelve months, and it took Jimbo eight years to get anywhere close to '74. Peculiarly, Lendl and Sampras seem to exemplify that winning two in a year ('86 and '93 respectively) does you no harm. Maybe Novak would have been better losing that USO semi to Federer? :)

Of course, hindsight's a wonderful thing ~ I voted for two wins myself despite my naysaying. I mean, at the end of '84, what fool would have predicted that McEnroe's slam winning days were behind him?


Regards,
MDL

celoft
12-18-2011, 02:08 PM
One or two. Not sure.

I'm leaning more to one atm.

rodrigoamaral
12-18-2011, 06:32 PM
I think he's only going to get 1 in 2012.. i see fed nadal and murray all getting 1 as well..

kaku
12-18-2011, 06:36 PM
I'm thinking one

jackson vile
12-18-2011, 06:36 PM
You have to fallow the trend, Novak seemed to really be saving himself after USO either that or he just didn't care. There is no reason why he could not do it again and as we have seen Federer can only produce at the end of the season, FO was just a fluke for Federer.

OddJack
12-18-2011, 06:38 PM
2

And one of them will be RG

SoBad
12-18-2011, 07:00 PM
No more slams for Djokovic, I'm afraid. Nadal is back next year and the new guns are ready as well.

ernestsgulbisfan#1
12-18-2011, 07:07 PM
1, including the Serbian Open :p

Clarky21
12-18-2011, 07:09 PM
At least 3.

MichaelNadal
12-18-2011, 07:14 PM
I say 1 :)

TopFH
12-18-2011, 07:40 PM
I say two is a feasible option.

Tony48
12-18-2011, 07:53 PM
0: Given his form, this is very improbable (but possible)
1: Extremely likely. I'd say that his chances are just about even in Australia, Paris, and New York. Wimbledon's the only place where I think I'll be tougher
2: Possible
3: Possible
4: Improbable: has to have a perfect combination of luck and good form.

With that said, I think he'll win 2: the Australian Open and RG

Sentinel
12-18-2011, 08:32 PM
At most four.

1, including the Serbian Open :p
YAAAY !! DP !

If he wins only one, I hope its the FO. That will seal him as the greatest clay courter ever. Or at least of The Nadal Era.

Tammo
12-18-2011, 08:41 PM
I say 1. With Nadal winning 2 and JMDP/maybe Murray getting the other one.

Joseph L. Barrow
12-19-2011, 03:38 PM
I think one to two is the best bet.

Mike Sams
12-19-2011, 03:45 PM
Djokovic is going to be almost unstoppable at the AO and USO in 2012. Roland Garros and Wimbledon is where other players like Federer, Nadal, etc have great chances.
Seems the AO surface is almost perfect for Djokovic's game. Federer has best chance of all obviously to stop Djokovic at USO. Can't see anybody else doing it.

Monsieur_DeLarge
12-19-2011, 04:07 PM
I say 1. With Nadal winning 2 and JMDP/maybe Murray getting the other one.

I guess the big question is who will win the slams that Djoker doesn't. Will it be the big three as usual, or...? Based on the end of 2011, Djokovic could be physically incapable, Nadal could be mentally incapable, and Federer's thrown away a two set lead at the last two slams in a row, so I wouldn't trust him to win even if he reached match point. We could be in for an upset or two.

And here's a funky factoid: 1974, 1984, 1988, and 2004 saw one player dominate at the slams, as detailed in my OP. In each of the following years (18 year-old Borg in 1975, 17 year-old Becker in 1985, 17 year-old Chang in 1989, and 18 year-old Nadal in 2005) we had a teenage slam champ. Tomic in 2012, anyone? ;)


I voted for Djoko to win two slams in the poll, but I'm going to change my answer slightly for my more detailed predictions. In a year of upheaval, the winners of the 2012 slams will be:

AO: Tsonga (or maybe Murray)
FO: Djokovic
W: Tomic
USO: Nadal (or Donald Young)


Regards,
MDL
(If I get even one of them right I'll be quite impressed) :D

celoft
12-19-2011, 04:34 PM
And here's a funky factoid: 1974, 1984, 1988, and 2004 saw one player dominate at the slams, as detailed in my OP. In each of the following years (18 year-old Borg in 1975, 17 year-old Becker in 1985, 17 year-old Chang in 1989, and 18 year-old Nadal in 2005) we had a teenage slam champ. Tomic in 2012, anyone? ;)


I voted for Djoko to win two slams in the poll, but I'm going to change my answer slightly for my more detailed predictions. In a year of upheaval, the winners of the 2012 slams will be:

AO: Tsonga (or maybe Murray)
FO: Djokovic
W: Tomic
USO: Nadal (or Donald Young)


Regards,
MDL
(If I get even one of them right I'll be quite impressed) :D


Interesting.

How about:

AO: Federer
FO: Nadal
Wimbledon: Tsonga or Tomic:shock:
USO: Djokovic

:lol:

kishnabe
12-19-2011, 04:58 PM
FO: Destroying Nadal in his home ground.

adamX012
12-19-2011, 09:47 PM
Who a...

well, between 1.5-2.5 is answer though

NetNinja68
12-20-2011, 05:37 AM
Interesting.

How about:

AO: Federer
FO: Nadal
Wimbledon: Tsonga or Tomic:shock:
USO: Djokovic

:lol:

Donald Young???? You're obviously kidding, right?

Talker
12-20-2011, 08:22 AM
It depends on the draw some.
Fed has the best chance of beating Djokovic everywhere it seems.
If Fed is on Nadal's side of the draw then Djokovic may get another slam to his years total if Nadal wins.