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View Full Version : Will the top 4 be more dominant than ever this year?


papertank
03-04-2012, 01:11 PM
Never in recent tennis history have I seen a top four so strong, and it only seems to be getting stronger.

Djokovic may not be as invincible as he was last year, but he's still pretty close to that level.

Nadal is still as lethal as ever, as shown by AO, and is still virtually dominant over everyone on tour besides Novak.

Murray seems to finally broken into to the Djokovic/Fed/Nadal triangle, with victories over Nadal and Djokovic in recent months. He also seems to finally be handling himself like a true great player on court.

And last but not least Federer is playing his best in the past couple years, being nearly untouchable since last years USO.

Not even the usual candidates for upsets like Tsonga, Berdych or Del Potro are giving these guys any trouble recently. They really all seem to have hit a run of form at the same time.

Nathaniel_Near
03-04-2012, 01:21 PM
Federer in 2, probably. Seriously though, I doubt it. Last year was very strange in terms of the dominance of the top 4 in almost always reaching at least Slam semis and also winning every single 1000 event. I can't see the dominance being so absolute this time around.

DjokovicForTheWin
03-04-2012, 01:25 PM
I agree, i think people like Delpo and even guys like Tsonga, Isner and Raonic will make some good challenges to the top 4 this year. Not saying any of those guys will get the top 4 ranking just that they will not easily go away and will come up with some wins here and there.

Evan77
03-04-2012, 02:18 PM
as much as I love Murray... no big 4. there are only big 3. nothing's really changing. yeah, they are too dominant. sometimes, I wish other players can challenge them but it's alll bs. again Murray doesn't belong in a same sentence with Nole, Raf and Rog.

DjokovicForTheWin
03-04-2012, 02:55 PM
Murray's done better than Nadal against Djoker the last year or so.

Benhur
03-04-2012, 03:07 PM
The current top 4 have 31 major titles and 17 runner ups among them. Or 48 finals in total.

32 of the last 35 major finals featured at least one of the current top 4

16 of the last 23 major finals featured two of the current top 4

The current top 4 have finished the year in the top 4 for the last 4 years, with 3 of them being number one at some point or other.

Certainly, at no point in the open era has there been a group of top 4 remotely near these numbers (when they were all together at the top).

tennnnis
03-04-2012, 05:10 PM
not really top 4. It is really like top 3. What has andy murray done???

I am really tired of hearing top 4.

Murray will lose a lot to rest of the field.

Djocker>>>>>>>>>Nadal>>>>>>>>>>>Fed>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Murray>>Rest

Mainad
03-04-2012, 05:17 PM
not really top 4. It is really like top 3. What has andy murray done???

I am really tired of hearing top 4.

Murray will lose a lot to rest of the field.

Djocker>>>>>>>>>Nadal>>>>>>>>>>>Fed>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Murray>>Rest

Thanks for that most informative post! :rolleyes:

Now please go away and troll on another forum!!

Clarky21
03-04-2012, 05:21 PM
not really top 4. It is really like top 3. What has andy murray done???I am really tired of hearing top 4.

Murray will lose a lot to rest of the field.

Djocker>>>>>>>>>Nadal>>>>>>>>>>>Fed>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Murray>>Rest


Has beaten Nadal twice in slams,bagelled Nadal in the Tokyo final last year,and just straight setted the number one player in the world,etc,etc... He has also won multiple masters titles and is a three time slam finalist. Sounds like he's accomplished quite a bit to me.

MichaelNadal
03-04-2012, 05:44 PM
Has beaten Nadal twice in slams,bagelled Nadal in the Tokyo final last year,and just straight setted the number one player in the world,etc,etc... He has also won multiple masters titles and is a three time slam finalist. Sounds like he's accomplished quite a bit to me.

Oh bullcrap. As much as I love Murray, certainly much more than Novak, he's not in the "big 4" bc there isn't one until he wins a slam. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice in a slam. Reaching finals doesn't help his cause that much if he always goes down in flames.

Mainad
03-04-2012, 05:55 PM
Oh bullcrap. As much as I love Murray, certainly much more than Novak, he's not in the "big 4" bc there isn't one until he wins a slam. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice in a slam. Reaching finals doesn't help his cause that much if he always goes down in flames.

So should Del Potro, Hewitt, Ferrero and Roddick join the Big 3 to make up a Big 7 instead? After all, they have all won a Slam!

MichaelNadal
03-04-2012, 06:30 PM
So should Del Potro, Hewitt, Ferrero and Roddick join the Big 3 to make up a Big 7 instead? After all, they have all won a Slam!

Murray has the consistency but hasn't made that final win come together in the late stages of a slam. Until he lifts the trophy, he's not part of the group. The guys you mentioned are irrelevant in a discussion about 2011 or 2012, so not sure why you even brought them up.

Clarky21
03-04-2012, 07:03 PM
Oh bullcrap. As much as I love Murray, certainly much more than Novak, he's not in the "big 4" bc there isn't one until he wins a slam. Ferrer has beaten Nadal twice in a slam. Reaching finals doesn't help his cause that much if he always goes down in flames.


Same thing could be said for Nadal. He has lost 8 of the 9 finals he has made over the past year,7 of those to the same person,and 1 to the dude you're knocking in your post. He's not exactly setting the world on fire these days himself. If anything Nadal losing all those finals in such pathetic fashion is way more humiliating than any loss Murray has ever taken. At least Andy is able to beat Humpty Dumpty,which is another thing that cannot be said for Nadal.

devila
03-04-2012, 07:20 PM
give murray a merciful applause from me. federer was a clown but rodduck managed to enjoy losing in the freakiest ways to him. that's a world record like james blake's record for being the first player to break his neck on a tennis court.

fat rodduck would've made it impossible for fed to win 10 slams if he also had a little brain.

BULLZ1LLA2.0
03-04-2012, 07:52 PM
Same thing could be said for Nadal. He has lost 8 of the 9 finals he has made over the past year,7 of those to the same person,and 1 to the dude you're knocking in your post. He's not exactly setting the world on fire these days himself. If anything Nadal losing all those finals in such pathetic fashion is way more humiliating than any loss Murray has ever taken. At least Andy is able to beat Humpty Dumpty,which is another thing that cannot be said for Nadal.

If Murray and Federer are both beating Djokovic then what Nadal won't even play Djokovic. And Nadal still leads the H2H vs Djokovic.

So what will Djokovic be left with? Regular semi-final exits and a negative H2H vs Nadal.

What will be Nadal left with? Regular slam titles and a positive H2H vs Djokovic.

Clarky21
03-04-2012, 08:16 PM
If Murray and Federer are both beating Djokovic then what Nadal won't even play Djokovic. And Nadal still leads the H2H vs Djokovic.

So what will Djokovic be left with? Regular semi-final exits and a negative H2H vs Nadal.

What will be Nadal left with? Regular slam titles and a positive H2H vs Djokovic.

Sorry,but this whole post is pure bs.

Walenty
03-04-2012, 08:53 PM
As far as dominance of the top 4 for 2012 goes, then yes, unless some injury/major dip happens to one of them, they will dominate. And honestly, since Djokovic rocketed off last year, the answer to this question is now a resounding yes.

Here's why:

Fedal is still Fedal. Yes Fed is older now, but two titles already this year still shows why he's the GOAT, being this good at this age. Rafa is entering his prime, or is a year or two short of his prime.

Djoker is coming off supreme 2011 form.

Murray IS part of the big four. Don't get why everyone disses him. Who was the only player other than Novak to make all 4 GS semi's last year? Nadal? nope. Federer? Nope. It was Murray.

Who won the most Masters last year after Novak? You guessed it--Murray.

That being said, I think the only reasonable result that could be called a break of this dominance would be at least two different instances of someone other than the top 4 making a Slam Semi this year.

Last year, it happened at the AO (though obviously you could argue Nadal's injury was the only reason there), and Wimby. The other two slams were chalk. This year, the AO is already out. That probably only leaves Wimby for that to happen.

On top of that, Ferrer isn't getting any younger, Soderling probably won't recover enough form this year, and Delpo hasn't shown really anything that says he will beat one of the top 4 for a slam semi this year.

Basically other than an impressive Wimby QF showing by Tsonga/Berdych/Raonic, a blip on the radar, it probably ain't gonna happen.

The current top 4 have 31 major titles and 17 runner ups among them. Or 48 finals in total.

32 of the last 35 major finals featured at least one of the current top 4

16 of the last 23 major finals featured two of the current top 4

The current top 4 have finished the year in the top 4 for the last 4 years, with 3 of them being number one at some point or other.

Certainly, at no point in the open era has there been a group of top 4 remotely near these numbers (when they were all together at the top).

What's even more crazy is that assuming Fed doesn't retire at the end of this year, and Murray inevitably breaks through with a slam this year or next, 2013 should be even more dominated by the top 4.

Roddick33
03-04-2012, 09:09 PM
Walenty, you have convinced me :)

phnx90
03-05-2012, 02:23 AM
Right now, it's:

Djokokovic > Nadal > Federer >> Murray >>>> Everybody else

The gap between Murray and the top three is much smaller than that between Murray and the rest of the field. This is because the only thing that Murray is lacking, that the other three possess is a GS title to his name. Ability-wise and results-wise, he, like Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, is a step above everybody else, with multiple Masters titles and GS finals in his record.

So the way I see it, both the big three and the big four make sense, although if I had to choose one or the other, the "big/top four" would be the better choice.

Also, it's a bit difficult to argue against "top four" when they hold the top four positions in the rankings anyway :P

monfed
03-05-2012, 05:27 AM
Right now, it's:

Djokokovic > Nadal > Federer >> Murray >>>> Everybody else

The gap between Murray and the top three is much smaller than that between Murray and the rest of the field. This is because the only thing that Murray is lacking, that the other three possess is a GS title to his name. Ability-wise and results-wise, he, like Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, is a step above everybody else, with multiple Masters titles and GS finals in his record.

So the way I see it, both the big three and the big four make sense, although if I had to choose one or the other, the "big/top four" would be the better choice.

Also, it's a bit difficult to argue against "top four" when they hold the top four positions in the rankings anyway :P


I can go with this.

ZeroSkid
03-05-2012, 05:30 AM
I do think the top 4 be more dominant than ever this year, but Delpo could do some serious damage as well

joeri888
03-05-2012, 05:40 AM
It's all the unification plus slowing down of surfaces guys. Will they be more dominant than ever? Probably, yes, if Federer can hold on.
Will they be better than ever? Not so sure.

St. Bernard
03-05-2012, 05:58 AM
I'm calling for Ljubicic to break the streak of Big 4 Masters wins.

Benhur
03-05-2012, 08:22 AM
Right now, it's:

Djokokovic > Nadal > Federer >> Murray >>>> Everybody else

The gap between Murray and the top three is much smaller than that between Murray and the rest of the field. This is because the only thing that Murray is lacking, that the other three possess is a GS title to his name. Ability-wise and results-wise, he, like Djokovic, Nadal and Federer, is a step above everybody else, with multiple Masters titles and GS finals in his record.

So the way I see it, both the big three and the big four make sense, although if I had to choose one or the other, the "big/top four" would be the better choice.

Also, it's a bit difficult to argue against "top four" when they hold the top four positions in the rankings anyway :P

The gap in points between number 4 and number 5 (Ferrer) is nearly the same as the gap between number 5 and number 15 (Lopez).

Russeljones
03-05-2012, 08:45 AM
Rafa is entering his prime, or is a year or two short of his prime.

Uhm... What!?!

batz
03-05-2012, 10:06 AM
not really top 4. It is really like top 3. What has andy murray done???

I am really tired of hearing top 4.

Murray will lose a lot to rest of the field.

Djocker>>>>>>>>>Nadal>>>>>>>>>>>Fed>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Murray>>Rest

Fed is being included purely on what he achieved up to January 2010. Murray has out performed Fed in slams and masters series over the the last 2 years. Last year Murray was the only man other than Novak to win more than 1 masters series and make semis or better at all the slams.

I can just about get my head round the argument that there is no 'Big Four' - I might not agree with it; but I can get my head round it. But what I can't understand is someone (i.e. you) bemoaning the use of the term 'Top 4'. There clearly is a top 4 - the rankings say so.

Russeljones
03-05-2012, 10:25 AM
Fed is being included purely on what he achieved up to January 2010. Murray has out performed Fed in slams and masters series over the the last 2 years. Last year Murray was the only man other than Novak to win more than 1 masters series and make semis or better at all the slams.

I can just about get my head round the argument that there is no 'Big Four' - I might not agree with it; but I can get my head round it. But what I can't understand is someone (i.e. you) bemoaning the use of the term 'Top 4'. There clearly is a top 4 - the rankings say so.

You're really losing the plot! lol I have nothing against top 4 after Murray's performance at this year's AO. But for you to selectively pick last year as a building block for your argument about Federer's place in the grand scheme of things - lol

It's a simple game of numbers, he who wins tournaments gets the points. Federer has won a fair few since the USO, hence the place in the top 3. Why talk about him when you should just shrug off the cliche (it is one now obviously) and enjoy your man's performance?

Murray deserves to be in the top 4 beause he wins tournaments and beats everyone. There end of story.

monfed
03-05-2012, 10:32 AM
Fed is being included purely on what he achieved up to January 2010. Murray has out performed Fed in slams and masters series over the the last 2 years. Last year Murray was the only man other than Novak to win more than 1 masters series and make semis or better at all the slams.

In 2010, Fed in slams was W,QF,QF,SF compared to the Muzette's F,R4,SF,R3. Fed also won WTF that year while Andrew made the semis. Murray won Toronto and Shanghai that year while Federer won Cincy.

Fed's 2010(Slam+WTF) >Murray's 2010(Slam final+2 Masters).


In 2011 Fed won WTF(second to slams) and he made SF,F,QF,SF compared to Murray's F,SF,SF,SF. Murray's won one semi extra in Wimby but that's partly due to Fed facing onfire Tsonga compared to Murray who faced Lopez. :lol:
Murray won Cincy and Shanghai while Fed won Bercy and WTF. So,it's close.

Fed's 2011 >= Murray's 2011

2012 In Dubai, Murray was playing some of his best tennis but still got schooled in the final by Federer.



I can just about get my head round the argument that there is no 'Big Four' - I might not agree with it; but I can get my head round it. But what I can't understand is someone (i.e. you) bemoaning the use of the term 'Top 4'. There clearly is a top 4 - the rankings say so.

I think Djok and Nadal are ahead of the field by a big margin but Federer and Murray are closer than it appears.

On a sidenote , I think Murray's performed better than Fed in Wimbledon, while Fed's done better at RG and USO. AO is too close to call.

batz
03-05-2012, 11:14 AM
In 2010, Fed in slams was W,QF,QF,SF compared to the Muzette's F,R4,SF,R3. Fed also won WTF that year while Andrew made the semis. Murray won Toronto and Shanghai that year while Federer won Cincy.

Fed's 2010(Slam+WTF) >Murray's 2010(Slam final+2 Masters).


In 2011 Fed won WTF(second to slams) and he made SF,F,QF,SF compared to Murray's F,SF,SF,SF. Murray's won one semi extra in Wimby but that's partly due to Fed facing onfire Tsonga compared to Murray who faced Lopez. :lol:
Murray won Cincy and Shanghai while Fed won Bercy and WTF. So,it's close.

Fed's 2011 >= Murray's 2011

2012 In Dubai, Murray was playing some of his best tennis but still got schooled in the final by Federer.




I think Djok and Nadal are ahead of the field by a big margin but Federer and Murray are closer than it appears.

On a sidenote , I think Murray's performed better than Fed in Wimbledon, while Fed's done better at RG and USO. AO is too close to call.

I was quite explicit about my assertion being from Feb 2010, but I take your point.

I'm not dissing Roger in any way shape or form - got way too much respect for the guy to do that.

monfed
03-05-2012, 11:26 AM
I was quite explicit about my assertion being from Feb 2010, but I take your point.

I'm not dissing Roger in any way shape or form - got way too much respect for the guy to do that.

It's cool I know you're not, it's just that the "outperformed" part didn't sit well with me so I had to post. ;)

BTW most expect Murray to do well in the spring HC season,looking much better than last year.

PrinceMoron
03-05-2012, 12:12 PM
If I am expecting anything at all this year it is greater aggression from Nadal, Murray and Federer.

Djokovich has been really good for the game in that, and many other respects. I am looking forward to seeing Murray go for more easy points on serve and being more proactive, Nadal taking the game to Djokovich, Federer serving well, hitting more topspin on the BH, integrating some more netplay.

Even if Djokovich cleans up this year, the tennis is going to be good.

Come the end of year finals, the top 4 are going to be dead on their feet, that is going to be the only disappointment.

Final wish is to catch the Bryans playing Karlovic live somewhere.

Diabl0
03-05-2012, 02:01 PM
Its a pretty big shock when any of the top 4 lose before the GS semi stage, thats how consistent they are.

Since SW19 2011 Murray and Federer have been picking up alot of tournaments but when it really matters (in a slam) Djokovic and Nadal raise their level and end up contesting the final.

kaku
03-05-2012, 02:38 PM
All Majors and Masters last year went to the top 4. They are currently ranked 1-4. Certainly looks like a top 4 to me.

SStrikerR
03-05-2012, 05:59 PM
It goes "Big three" "medium one" "field"

Evan77
03-06-2012, 12:44 PM
yeah, I still don't understand this 'big 4 thing'. what the hell did Murray win? nothing. IMHO, there are only BIG 3 and we all know who they are. simple as that. again, don't get me wrong. I love Murray but please...

Nathaniel_Near
03-06-2012, 12:50 PM
I find it hard to call it the big 4 at the moment as Murray has yet to win some form of elite singles title over the last 2 years, where as Federer has won 3 elite singles titles, those being WTF x 2 and AO. I think Murray might be on the verge of making huge strides this year though. I'm very interested to see what happens when he plays Nole and Nadal again because of the beatings he gave both players last time around.

PrinceMoron
03-06-2012, 01:06 PM
I find it hard to call it the big 4 at the moment as Murray has yet to win some form of elite singles title over the last 2 years, where as Federer has won 3 elite singles titles, those being WTF x 2 and AO. I think Murray might be on the verge of making huge strides this year though. I'm very interested to see what happens when he plays Nole and Nadal again because of the beatings he gave both players last time around.

The big breakthrough will be when he can beat Federer after beating Nadal or Djokovich in the semis. I guess that is the way the season will pan out ratings and seedings wise for at least the first half of the year.

batz
03-06-2012, 01:14 PM
The big breakthrough will be when he can beat Federer after beating Nadal or Djokovich in the semis. I guess that is the way the season will pan out ratings and seedings wise for at least the first half of the year.

Like Canada 2010 you mean?

Mainad
03-06-2012, 01:18 PM
I find it hard to call it the big 4 at the moment as Murray has yet to win some form of elite singles title over the last 2 years, where as Federer has won 3 elite singles titles, those being WTF x 2 and AO. I think Murray might be on the verge of making huge strides this year though. I'm very interested to see what happens when he plays Nole and Nadal again because of the beatings he gave both players last time around.

Why can't Masters 1000, where all 4 top players competed, not be considered in the elite category? Within the last 2 years, Murray has won 2010 Toronto (top 4 players competing), 2010 Shanghai (top 4 players competing) and 2011 Cincinnati (top 4 players all competing)!

Evan77
03-06-2012, 01:23 PM
meh, Murray simply has to win a bloody slam. he can win all masters this year but it won't really matter.

Homeboy Hotel
03-06-2012, 01:41 PM
meh, Murray simply has to win a bloody slam. he can win all masters this year but it won't really matter.

You can say that, but then it'll be the question of he can win another...and another...and another...and one on another surface....then one on all surfaces.

But still, 250's/Masters/1000/Slams...dominance isn't just one of each top 4 winning 1 of the 4 slams every year. They never have in one year shared the slams amongst the 3 or 4. But more the case of, in the last couple matches of every tournament (regardless of level) the same top 4 names pop up continuously. That's what I'd call dominance anyway.

PrinceMoron
03-07-2012, 01:11 PM
Like Canada 2010 you mean?

Well I mean Djoko 2011, not Djoko in Canada 2010. I know he could beat him then, Djoko could beat himself back then, or fall apart physically. Sure it was a big achievement at the time, but the hurdle is a little bit higher right now.

I guess my argument is a bit flawed as I really don't know what kind of Nadal is going to be turning up, but I suspect it will be pretty much revved up and raring to go.

I have never been a huge Murray fan, but was very impressed by his performances at AO, I almost did not recognise him.

Has Federer found the right way to play him? He certainly seems more comfortable against him and less prone to getting getting overhauled in the latter stages of a best of three. Conversely Murray has to do better in GS finals against Federer, Federer can't come out storming every first set.

SLD76
03-07-2012, 01:42 PM
It's cool I know you're not, it's just that the "outperformed" part didn't sit well with me so I had to post. ;)

BTW most expect Murray to do well in the spring HC season,looking much better than last year.

dubai and last year's fall HC swing really showed me that Murray right now at this moment may be the second best fast HC player right now. I say second cuz you cant argue agaisnt Rog indoors or fast outdoor HC.

I look for Murray to make a move at the summer HC and USO.

I think Murray will win USO this year.

batz
03-07-2012, 01:50 PM
Well I mean Djoko 2011, not Djoko in Canada 2010. I know he could beat him then, Djoko could beat himself back then, or fall apart physically. Sure it was a big achievement at the time, but the hurdle is a little bit higher right now.

I guess my argument is a bit flawed as I really don't know what kind of Nadal is going to be turning up, but I suspect it will be pretty much revved up and raring to go.

I have never been a huge Murray fan, but was very impressed by his performances at AO, I almost did not recognise him.

Has Federer found the right way to play him? He certainly seems more comfortable against him and less prone to getting getting overhauled in the latter stages of a best of three. Conversely Murray has to do better in GS finals against Federer, Federer can't come out storming every first set.

He might just have done that you know - I think Roger is something like 5-2 in their last 7.

jackson vile
03-07-2012, 02:49 PM
Never in recent tennis history have I seen a top four so strong, and it only seems to be getting stronger.

Djokovic may not be as invincible as he was last year, but he's still pretty close to that level.

Nadal is still as lethal as ever, as shown by AO, and is still virtually dominant over everyone on tour besides Novak.

Murray seems to finally broken into to the Djokovic/Fed/Nadal triangle, with victories over Nadal and Djokovic in recent months. He also seems to finally be handling himself like a true great player on court.

And last but not least Federer is playing his best in the past couple years, being nearly untouchable since last years USO.

Not even the usual candidates for upsets like Tsonga, Berdych or Del Potro are giving these guys any trouble recently. They really all seem to have hit a run of form at the same time.


The field is a lot stronger now, however it could simply appear to be that way due to the past field being weaker or simply being injured and not as dedicated.