PDA

View Full Version : Whose Serve is most effective?


JimF
09-24-2012, 10:22 AM
I massaged the ATP stats a bit, here resorting the ace leaders by aces per match fyi --

more:
http://www.fawcette.net/2012/09/whose-serve-is-most-effective.html

http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8439/8020509892_d55aba966f.jpg (http://www.flickr.com/photos/jfawcette/8020509892/)
ServeAcesMatchATP92312 (http://www.flickr.com/photos/jfawcette/8020509892/) by james.fawcette (http://www.flickr.com/people/jfawcette/), on Flickr

.

AnotherTennisProdigy
09-24-2012, 10:42 AM
Either Raonic or Isner. Raonic has more speed while Isner has more height (the same is true with karlovic, but I don't think his serve is as reliable). I would pick Isner because of his second serve and his ability to pull out a big one on important points.

rofl_copter3
09-24-2012, 10:48 AM
John Isner though 4 years ago I would say Ivo

rtl11
09-24-2012, 01:29 PM
This statistics does not take into account things like Federer serving very wide and then hitting a forehand winner. He often hold service in less than a minute even if serving only one or zero aces in the game.

Roddick85
09-24-2012, 01:36 PM
My pick would be Federer. While he doesn't have the speed/power of Raonic or Isner, his placement and variety is greater then them. He's got a very good kick serve for a 2nd serve and places it well. When his 1st serve is working, he's very hard to break, just look at his recent run in Cincinnati. I don't think it's fair to judge one's serve by the amount of aces hit every year, for the amount of aces hit by Raonic/Isner, they surely didn't win many tournaments in 2012.

Fastpace Ace
09-24-2012, 05:10 PM
Surprised Dolgopolov is up there!

ATP100
09-24-2012, 05:43 PM
Sampras.......

smoledman
09-24-2012, 06:24 PM
Federer easily.

Vcore89
09-24-2012, 06:36 PM
Federer of course!

Sampras' oomph.

Goran's low skid on grass.

A-Rod's constant 140-milers.

Boris Becker's boombastic serve.

However, I like Joachim Johansson's serve the most!:cool:

RAFA2005RG
09-24-2012, 07:42 PM
Either Raonic or Isner. Raonic has more speed while Isner has more height (the same is true with karlovic, but I don't think his serve is as reliable). I would pick Isner because of his second serve and his ability to pull out a big one on important points.

Karlovic's problem is if he doesn't serve an unreturnable, he's likely to lose the point.

PhrygianDominant
09-24-2012, 11:22 PM
If the serve were measured in laboratory conditions I think Isner's is more effective than Karlovic's, because he has purposefully sought to exploit his height with extra topspin. Karlovic has more slice in his serve.

If the serve is to be measured in reference to the whole game, I say Federer.

Sabratha
09-24-2012, 11:37 PM
I'd say Raonic.

fps
09-24-2012, 11:40 PM
Federer. These guys are the top of the rankings aren't serving to all the best players week in week out.

helloworld
09-24-2012, 11:58 PM
Federer. These guys are the top of the rankings aren't serving to all the best players week in week out.

The stats seem to say otherwise.

Bobby Jr
09-25-2012, 02:55 AM
Looking at aces served is a relatively poor metric to form an argument for which serve is the most effective.

chrischris
09-25-2012, 03:40 AM
Federer of course!

Sampras' oomph.

Goran's low skid on grass.

A-Rod's constant 140-milers.

Boris Becker's boombastic serve.

However, I like Joachim Johansson's serve the most!:cool:

How was Joamchim Johansson serve?

Rock Strongo
09-25-2012, 03:47 AM
How was Joamchim Johansson serve?

135 MPH second serves, need I say more?

UKTennis
09-25-2012, 03:51 AM
Federer's serve isn't as good as it was, but in crunch periods there isn't many better out there, if any. Quite surprised Del Potro isn't higher, I thought he had a massive serve when he came onto the scene, but maybe I'm imagining things.

mental midget
09-25-2012, 04:07 AM
that dolgopolov is on that list is pretty crazy. if he could somehow gets his act a little more fully together, he has the physical talent to be a top 5 player-one of the best athletes on tour.

JimF
09-25-2012, 07:25 PM
135 MPH second serves, need I say more?

I'd agree Joachim had the best serve I've ever seen.

Would hit ridiculously short, wide in the box at 13o mph on both sides.

Of course, his shoulder would last about three tournaments between surgeries, sadly.

JimF
09-25-2012, 07:28 PM
that dolgopolov is on that list is pretty crazy. if he could somehow gets his act a little more fully together, he has the physical talent to be a top 5 player-one of the best athletes on tour.

Fun to watch.

Still experimenting, shaping his game.

In DC he served to deuce court from doubles position, yet could still hit the T at 135 .

Don't know if he can win this way but I love watching him try!

dangalak
09-25-2012, 07:29 PM
My pick would be Federer. While he doesn't have the speed/power of Raonic or Isner, his placement and variety is greater then them. He's got a very good kick serve for a 2nd serve and places it well. When his 1st serve is working, he's very hard to break, just look at his recent run in Cincinnati. I don't think it's fair to judge one's serve by the amount of aces hit every year, for the amount of aces hit by Raonic/Isner, they surely didn't win many tournaments in 2012.

:lol::lol::lol:

This post should go into the hall of shame.

Federer just might be the most overrated player of all time.

Listen kid, if Isner and Raonic were a 10, Federer is a 6 at best. THIS is how dumb your post just was.

Has it ever occured to you, that Federer wins more tournaments than them, because he is a much better player OVERALL than these 2?

JimF
09-25-2012, 07:31 PM
My pick would be Federer. While he doesn't have the speed/power of Raonic or Isner, his placement and variety is greater then them. He's got a very good kick serve for a 2nd serve and places it well. When his 1st serve is working, he's very hard to break, just look at his recent run in Cincinnati. I don't think it's fair to judge one's serve by the amount of aces hit every year, for the amount of aces hit by Raonic/Isner, they surely didn't win many tournaments in 2012.

Impossible to truly isolate any one shot , but we can try :)

Tennis lacks stats of major sports. Love to see 1) points won with 1 ground stroke or less and 2) unreturned serves.

fps
09-26-2012, 09:33 AM
The stats seem to say otherwise.

If they were regularly playing Murray, Djokovic, other good returners like Ferrer, their figures would be lower. Also aces are not the only indicator or indeed the key indicator of effectiveness.

InvisibleSoul
09-26-2012, 10:57 AM
John Isner though 4 years ago I would say Ivo

Refer to this thread:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=438619

Raonic leads in pretty much every statistical category for service games.

dangalak
09-26-2012, 11:35 AM
Refer to this thread:

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=438619

Raonic leads in pretty much every statistical category for service games.

It ain't that simple. Overall, his serve is a complete package. Potent first serve that is high percentage (in the high 60s) , best second serve of all time, extremely clutch. Raonic's second serve is inferior and his first serve isn't as reliable.

PrinceMoron
09-26-2012, 11:38 AM
Federer of course!

Sampras' oomph.

Goran's low skid on grass.

A-Rod's constant 140-milers.

Boris Becker's boombastic serve.

However, I like Joachim Johansson's serve the most!:cool:

Agassi would have to agree with you there.

Harry_Wild
09-26-2012, 08:40 PM
I think placement trumps speed! If you serve it fast but in the opponent's strike zone; he/she can just block it back and you have to play the point in full! But if you place it; you can have an ace or an unreturnable serve.

dangalak
09-26-2012, 08:45 PM
I think placement trumps speed! If you serve it fast but in the opponent's strike zone; he/she can just block it back and you have to play the point in full! But if you place it; you can have an ace or an unreturnable serve.

Yes, because you can either place it on the line OR hit it hard in the middle of the service box. :rolleyes:

DolgoSantoro
09-26-2012, 09:17 PM
Dolgoatpolov is doing well I see... Good
Out of these guys I'd take raonic's serve

Romismak
09-26-2012, 10:43 PM
Ace per match ratio is not important, more accurate would be ace-per 1st serve in play - thatīs what i am using from ATP stats you see aces and you see 1st serves IN - but guys like Isner or Raonic have also 2nd serve aces so also it is not accurate, but much better than ace-per match - where guy like Ivo can play 3tie-breakers many matches, while guy like Raonic is winning matches in straight sets, so is serving 40% less service games than Ivo for example - thatīs just example but i hope you see the point.

About those who say Federer - i canīt anymore argue, but really people are so stupid it hurts,

PURE SERVE - Roger is not in the same league with Milos, John or Ivo - who are 3 biggest - best servers on the tour.

Hold service game is totally different thing - yes Rogerīs numbers are fantastic he holds more than 90% of his service games, is winning close to 80% of 1st serves, but his ability to win point, or service game besides serve is so much bigger than Isnerīs Raonicīand not even talking about IVo....


Right now in 2012 i would say :

best 1st serve Milos,
best 2nd serve - John,
best serve overall John - because he has high FS% almost every match,

Ivo would be currently 3rd best server, but he is 33, and his serve declined visibly in last 2-3years- he has not the same speed on his 1st serve and also statistically he is clearly worse than he was - just check ATP website:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Matchfacts/Matchfacts-Landing.aspx

The differences between them:

1.John - highest FS% among those 3 guys, in high 60s many times, howewer Johnīs 1st serve isnīt as good as Milosīs or Ivoīs but with such high FS% it doesnīt matter, also John is very good under pressure hitting bigger 1st serves in tie-breaks, BPīs down and so on

Best 2nd serve on the tour - insane kick serve, topspin and really on outdoor HC and clay that serve is almost as good as his 1st.

2.Milos-currently best 1st serve on the tour, has all-raw speed, nobody is hitting harder 1st serves regularly than Milos among top 50 at least-130-140mph flat bombs-aces, unreturnables

Than great slice serve - also can ace a lot or just take you out wide like Federer

2nd serve-one of best on the tour, maybe 2nd best afer Isner, but if not top 5 at least. Also has great kick serve

Howewer FS% is lower than Isnerīs or Ivoīs - which is probably, because of height difference + Milos is clearly going for bigger 1st serves than John on regular basis- so that make him miss a lot

3.Ivo - how i mentioned above, his serve declined visibly, but his 1st serve is i belive still 2nd best afer Milos, he doesnīthave the raw speed how he used to, but nobody can hit spots like Ivo, he can hit aces aces, aces... in row

Pretty high FS% thanks to his height + average 2nd serve - yes his 2nd serve isnīt bad, it is average, or good, but his ability to win point after 2nd serve is low, because of his low baseline game quality.

Bobby Jr
09-27-2012, 12:17 AM
Aces per match flatter players like Karlovic big time... the reason is he plays a much higher percentage of players who are chumps at returning and therefore inflate his ace stats.

More capable players (like Federer, Murray, Djokovic) have to play through all the same lower level players and then against some of the best returners the game as ever seen - which dents their aces per match stats comparatively somewhat.

dangalak
09-27-2012, 01:10 AM
Aces per match flatter players like Karlovic big time... the reason is he plays a much higher percentage of players who are chumps at returning and therefore inflate his ace stats.

More capable players (like Federer, Murray, Djokovic) have to play through all the same lower level players and then against some of the best returners the game as ever seen - which dents their aces per match stats comparatively somewhat.

Karlovic hits more than twice as many aces per match than Federer.

Even if both of them were to play Murray every round, Ivo would hit MANY more aces.

Romismak
09-27-2012, 02:19 AM
Aces per match flatter players like Karlovic big time... the reason is he plays a much higher percentage of players who are chumps at returning and therefore inflate his ace stats.

More capable players (like Federer, Murray, Djokovic) have to play through all the same lower level players and then against some of the best returners the game as ever seen - which dents their aces per match stats comparatively somewhat.

Agree that ace-per match are not very accurate even agree that Ivoīs ace count can benefit from playing lower ranked guys instead of top guys-because he is not top guy himself. But more importantly what makes biggest difference in ace-per match is Ivoīs level of play - i mean IVo is playing way to many tie-breakers, because his ROS sucks he canīt break even bad players and he ends up playing 2 tie-breaks or 3 sest a lot.

Agree that top guys play probably better returners- better players, but also they are beating lower ranked guys in straight sets- so they serve less sets, because they are good enough to win in 2, but Ivo for example plays 3 sets more often. Howewer top guys go deep at slams and play at least 3 sets there, so slams somehow are evening this for them, but still ace-per match because of those things - variety is huge. For example you have 2 big servers, one of them sucks in all other things another one is really good, so that good one will win more matches in 2 sets and with breaks, while the bad one will play more 3 sets + more tie-breaks- more service games and so on, so that bad one will have much higher ace-per match ratio. howewer their ace-per 1st serve In can be totally the same.

Nice example is Raonic, this year he was winning in San Jose and Memphis mostly in straight sets, while last year he played more 3 sets- he become arguably better player this year so, logically he had more aces in 2011 than in 2012 at the same events with playing same number of matches, because he played less sets-less service games. This is why ace-per match is really not great indicator