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View Full Version : Who will end the year as number 1?


RogerFan1991
09-27-2012, 11:57 AM
Hi, im new on this forum, i've been reading the threads but never post before, this is my first post, and i dedided to make in a new thread.

I want to know who you think will end the year as number 1, just two options: Federer or Djokovic?
If we take look at points to defend, the favourite is Nole, but this is Rogers best part of the season....so its quite a close fight between these two.

forzamilan90
09-27-2012, 12:37 PM
Want Fed to get #1, but aware that Fed probably won't replicate last season's greatness, so I figure Djokovic as long as he doesn't surprise with some shock losses should get the #1

NadalAgassi
09-27-2012, 01:49 PM
I am thinking Federer. Djokovic doesnt typically shine in this part of the year.

raphMODE
09-27-2012, 02:20 PM
Just to make it clear, as I'm not sure...
Is the "Year End #1" determinated by the general ATP ranking, or by the ATP RACE ranking ?

Nostradamus
09-27-2012, 02:20 PM
Murray is already #1 in most sports critics poll.

Prisoner of Birth
09-27-2012, 02:28 PM
Just to make it clear, as I'm not sure...
Is the "Year End #1" determinated by the general ATP ranking, or by the ATP RACE ranking ?
–

Race.

10chars

raphMODE
09-27-2012, 02:32 PM
thanks !

The Bawss
09-27-2012, 02:43 PM
Just to make it clear, as I'm not sure...
Is the "Year End #1" determinated by the general ATP ranking, or by the ATP RACE ranking ?
–

At the end of the year, the race rankings = the normal rankings.

Prisoner of Birth
09-27-2012, 02:44 PM
At the end of the year, the race rankings = the normal rankings.

Yeah, this. But the race gives the better idea on who's more likely to finish the year as #1.

RF20Lennon
09-27-2012, 02:49 PM
want fed probably nole BUT!! In the last 8 years!! whoever has won wimby has gone on to finish the year as #1 so hopefully its fed!!!

r2473
09-27-2012, 02:57 PM
Djokovic

....

timnz
09-27-2012, 03:54 PM
Just to make it clear, as I'm not sure...
Is the "Year End #1" determinated by the general ATP ranking, or by the ATP RACE ranking ?
–

ATP ranking is derived from points accumulated over the last 52 weeks. ATP RACE ranking is derived from points earned since 01-JAN this year. Obviously on the 31st of December these two ranking systems exactly match (because the 52 weeks before the 31st of December was the 01-JAN).

Never liked the RACE rankings. Basically if the number 200 player in the world won an event in the first week of JAnuary - and the top players didn't play that week then that player would be the number 1 in the RACE.

raphMODE
09-27-2012, 05:09 PM
ATP ranking is derived from points accumulated over the last 52 weeks. ATP RACE ranking is derived from points earned since 01-JAN this year. Obviously on the 31st of December these two ranking systems exactly match (because the 52 weeks before the 31st of December was the 01-JAN).
Wow... I simply didn't think that those 2 rankings match at the end of the year... and well it's just obvious !!
Thank you for that answer :)
–

Ripster
09-27-2012, 06:05 PM
Djokovic. Federer has way more points to defend and it sounds like he's going to skip the Asian swing.

raphMODE
09-27-2012, 06:57 PM
There's about 1000pts separate them (after last year points drop : 3000 for Fed, 560 for Djoko)

Do you think it will be that hard for Fed to fill the gap, considering how good he is indoor ?

NadalAgassi
09-27-2012, 06:58 PM
Djokovic. Federer has way more points to defend and it sounds like he's going to skip the Asian swing.

I would be surprised if he does that. This is his last real chance ever to grab a share of the year end #1 rankings record. Federer has always been motivated by records. He wont let a chance like this pass without giving it his all to get it.

Sabratha
09-27-2012, 07:04 PM
Where's Murray on the list?

NadalAgassi
09-27-2012, 07:12 PM
Where's Murray on the list?

Murray is over 3000 points behind Djokovic on the ATP Race (which will be the year end rankings at year end). He has virtually no chance. It would require him not only sweeping the fall indoor season and winning every event he is in (possible I suppose, though unlikely) but Djokovic going something like 2-6 the rest of the year including the WTF. That isnt even to mention the 2000 Race points he is behind Federer.

Djokovic and Federer would both have to suffer a huge injury and not play another tournament the rest of the year, and would still leave Murray with a tough task.

Sabratha
09-27-2012, 07:17 PM
Murray is over 3000 points behind Djokovic on the ATP Race (which will be the year end rankings at year end). He has virtually no chance. It would require him not only sweeping the fall indoor season and winning every event he is in (possible I suppose, though unlikely) but Djokovic going something like 2-6 the rest of the year including the WTF. That isnt even to mention the 2000 Race points he is behind Federer.

Djokovic and Federer would both have to suffer a huge injury and not play another tournament the rest of the year, and would still leave Murray with a tough task.
Don't count him out.

RF20Lennon
09-27-2012, 07:38 PM
Not me unfortunately :(

Sentinel
09-27-2012, 08:54 PM
Nole is ahead by 1005 points in the race.
http://live-tennis.eu/race

Roger has to win 1005 points to level, and then more than whatever Nole wins.

So looks like Nole will be #1. With Roger talking about being tired and wounded, don't see him going on a tear.

NadalAgassi
09-27-2012, 09:38 PM
I hope Djokovic gets it since I think he is still the best player and the true #1 right now. The slams are what matter most and while both he and Roger won only 1 slam Djokovic was clearly better in 3 of the 4:

Australian Open- Roger loses to Nadal in semis, who loses to Djokovic in final.

French Open- Djokovic beats Roger in straights in semis, and goes on to lose tough final to Nadal.

Wimbledon- Roger beats Djokovic in semis and wins title.

U.S Open- Roger loses to Berdych in quarters. Djokovic loses 5 setter to Murray in final.

So if it is indeed Djokovic which it seems most people are thinking, it would be the fitting result IMO. Although if Roger gets it by winning the WTF, which it seems likely he will have to in order to get it (and even then wont guarantee it) I wont begrudge him it either.

Prisoner of Birth
09-27-2012, 09:42 PM
I find it surprising that Federer's leading this poll.

Ripster
09-27-2012, 09:48 PM
I find it surprising that Federer's leading this poll.

When is Federer not leading a poll on TW.

Prisoner of Birth
09-27-2012, 09:58 PM
When is Federer not leading a poll on TW.

Most Federer fans on the forum acknowledge that Djokovic is more likely to finish YE #1. I'm not sure where those votes are coming from.

jhhachamp
09-27-2012, 10:03 PM
I find it surprising that Federer's leading this poll.

Me too. I am a Federer fan but think it is unlikely he can make up the 1000 points. The only reason he had so many more points than Djokovic is because Djokovic already had #1 wrapped up and was worn down. I think he will take #1 this year.

tennis_pro
09-28-2012, 01:30 AM
Murray is already #1 in most sports critics poll.

Name one..

mib
09-28-2012, 01:48 AM
Me too. I am a Federer fan but think it is unlikely he can make up the 1000 points. The only reason he had so many more points than Djokovic is because Djokovic already had #1 wrapped up and was worn down. I think he will take #1 this year.

Depends on Federer's form. He is better then Djokovic indoors, so it is not out of the question.

The Bawss
09-28-2012, 02:10 AM
Fed is not going to play basel-paris-WTF back to back. This means he will not end the year at #1.

mib
09-28-2012, 05:50 AM
Fed is not going to play basel-paris-WTF back to back. This means he will not end the year at #1.

If he wins Shanghai, WTF, Basel and skips Paris, he may still hold to his number one ranking depending on how Djokovic does.

Dark Magician
09-28-2012, 07:30 AM
If he wins Shanghai, WTF, Basel and skips Paris, he may still hold to his number one ranking depending on how Djokovic does.

I will answer this for you exactly how senti did, paris and basel are like warm - ups for WTF not shanghai (its too far from WTF), so he may lose a step in WTF by avoiding paris!

RF20Lennon
09-28-2012, 07:53 AM
Most Federer fans on the forum acknowledge that Djokovic is more likely to finish YE #1. I'm not sure where those votes are coming from.

They do but they would still vote for federer lol

RF20Lennon
09-28-2012, 07:55 AM
I hope Djokovic gets it since I think he is still the best player and the true #1 right now. The slams are what matter most and while both he and Roger won only 1 slam Djokovic was clearly better in 3 of the 4:

Australian Open- Roger loses to Nadal in semis, who loses to Djokovic in final.

French Open- Djokovic beats Roger in straights in semis, and goes on to lose tough final to Nadal.

Wimbledon- Roger beats Djokovic in semis and wins title.

U.S Open- Roger loses to Berdych in quarters. Djokovic loses 5 setter to Murray in final.

So if it is indeed Djokovic which it seems most people are thinking, it would be the fitting result IMO. Although if Roger gets it by winning the WTF, which it seems likely he will have to in order to get it (and even then wont guarantee it) I wont begrudge him it either.
NO!! see Djokovic won Aussie, Miami and Rogers Cup. Federer won Wimby Indian wells, Madrid (clay) Rotterdam, Dubai, and Cincy beating Djokovic 6-0 7-6 and a Silver medal!!! Hes won on all surfaces this year and has an olympic medal therefore I think he deserves it more

mib
09-28-2012, 07:59 AM
I will answer this for you exactly how senti did, paris and basel are like warm - ups for WTF not shanghai (its too far from WTF), so he may lose a step in WTF by avoiding paris!

Well, it is actually quite possible that he would skip Shanghai and play three in a row. Either way, there is a realistic chance for him to keep the rating if he performs well and Djokovic falls short.

NadalAgassi
09-28-2012, 09:26 AM
NO!! see Djokovic won Aussie, Miami and Rogers Cup. Federer won Wimby Indian wells, Madrid (clay) Rotterdam, Dubai, and Cincy beating Djokovic 6-0 7-6 and a Silver medal!!! Hes won on all surfaces this year and has an olympic medal therefore I think he deserves it more

Lets break it down by surface:

Clay- Federer won Madrid, but Djokovic reached the Roland Garros finals and the finals of both Monte Carlo and Rome. I would give Djokovic the edge overall, RG final is already worth atleast equal to a Masters title, and he did better at 3 of the 4 major events (yes a DNP counts as doing worse in an even bigger way btw, as you relegate yourself to 0 points).

Hard Courts- Djokovic with 1 slam, another slam final, and both have 2 Masters. No contest Djokovic. A couple more minor sub Master level event titles would not compensate the difference of 1 slam and 1 other slam final vs 1 slam semi and 1 slam quarter.

Grass- No contest Federer.

So breaking it down that way as well Djokovic is slightly ahead at this point. The Race points back this up too, there is a reason Djokovic is about 1000 points ahead. If Federer wins the WTF he will probably end the year end #1 anyway, and probably deserve it in that case as well.

Feather
09-29-2012, 12:41 AM
Fed is not going to play basel-paris-WTF back to back. This means he will not end the year at #1.

I feel this describes it..

Logan71
09-29-2012, 12:59 AM
I believe even with all possible permutations it's in Novak's hands.Federer can only defend points where Novak can gain.

Federer is one of the greatest indoor players ever so if he's up for it he can hang onto the lead he has.

Novak still has quetions over him about performing for an entre season.However if he had won Wimbledon or the USopen he probably would have tailed off at this stage and played second fiddle.
After a season that promised much after Australia he has gone on to miss all of his mid season goals.Now he's motivated and probaly not as physically spent as last season.

Federer has complained of feeling wounded very surprising considering what he has manged to win the last 12 months.I think he was too hard on himself for losing at Flushing Meadows.

It comes down to the events they both pick and the mindset of the 2.
Who wants it most.

merlinpinpin
09-29-2012, 01:34 AM
It comes down to the events they both pick and the mindset of the 2.
Who wants it most.

Not exactly. At this stage, I feel that Federer wants it much more than Djokovic, no question.

However, he is 1,000 points behind, and likely to be 1,500 points behind next week with Djokovic playing Beijing vs no real threat. And this is definitely *huge* ground to cover in just three (or four) tournaments, none of which is a slam.

At the moment, the crowded schedule of the Olympic year seems to advantage Djokovic big time (the 1,000 points he was able to add to his tally by basically being the only one to play in Canada being the extend of his current lead), but there is still a lot of tennis to be played, so let's see how this pans out. :)

Edit: Also, who gets Murray in his part of the draw in Shanghai could very well be a big factor (if not the deciding one), the Brit being arguably the favourite to win the whole thing.

Zarfot Z
09-29-2012, 02:13 AM
60% chance Djokovic gets YE #1
40% chance Federer gets YE #1

Trying to be optimistic here, but Fed isn't gonna go perform as well as he did in last year's end of season run.

tennis_pro
09-29-2012, 02:39 AM
60% chance Djokovic gets YE #1
40% chance Federer gets YE #1

Trying to be optimistic here, but Fed isn't gonna go perform as well as he did in last year's end of season run.

I'd say 75-25 to Djokovic now.

If Fed wins Shanghai (or reaches the final but with Djokovic losing in the SF or earlier) I'd give it a 60-40 to Djokovic.

1000 points is huge at this stage of year, there are only 4-5 tournaments to be played which means that Federer at 31 has to gain at least 1000 more points than a 25-year old Djokovic in those remaining events. It's a big ask but Fed has an outside chance if he GOATs again.

6-1 6-3 6-0
09-29-2012, 02:41 AM
Looks like Federer is paying the price for skipping Monte Carlo.

RogerFan1991
09-29-2012, 07:42 AM
^^^ Not exactly, he is playing the prince for not going deeper in the Us Open, thats it.

MSK
09-29-2012, 08:13 AM
Murray will be no.1

tennis_pro
09-29-2012, 10:52 AM
Here's what the bookies think:

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/season-and-specials/atp-2012-specials/number-one-at-seasons-end

NadalAgassi
09-29-2012, 10:59 AM
How on earth can their be odds on some of those players. Roddick is well outside the top 10 in both ATP rankings and the Race and has officialy retired. Soderling doesnt even have a ranking anymore. Nobody below Murray or Nadal could even mathematically reach #1 if they won every tournament until years end and Djokovic and Federer did not win another match all year. I guess they are taking advantage of some incredibly stupid people out there who have no business making any tennis related bets.

Hawkeye7
10-02-2012, 09:33 PM
How on earth can Murray and Nadal be below Ferrer??? Ferrer can't even mathematically end this year as #1. Uhm, okay then. Let alone that he just retired from his R1 match and won't play in Shanghai.

Djokovic is the logical option here.

NDFM
10-03-2012, 05:45 AM
to be honest i'm not too sure but if fed gets it then he will break or tie another record which will only add to his already outstanding career accomplishments.

Hood_Man
10-03-2012, 05:52 AM
^^^ Not exactly, he is playing the prince for not going deeper in the Us Open, thats it.

Yeah, this. If he'd played Monte Carlo he would have paid for it elsewhere, possibly Wimbledon.

Still, we'll see how the indoor season goes. I suspect Novak will take it though.

[EDIT]

He'd be the first player not called Federer to end two consecutive seasons as World #1 since Hewitt in 2001-2002 if he does it.

Evan77
10-03-2012, 09:06 AM
MC doesn't really matter that much. Djokovic only played 13 tournaments this year. Fed played 16. Novak is still leading the race, so I assume he'll probably end up as #1. Also, Fed has too many points to defend.

RF20Lennon
10-03-2012, 09:09 AM
MC doesn't really matter that much. Djokovic only played 13 tournaments this year. Fed played 16. Novak is still leading the race, so I assume he'll probably end up as #1. Also, Fed has too many points to defend.

He will most probably break 300 regardless needs to win only one match at shanghai I think that's way more than enough

bezs
10-03-2012, 09:10 AM
Gonna be hard for Roger with so much points to defend but he might just do it.

Evan77
10-03-2012, 10:18 AM
He will most probably break 300 regardless needs to win only one match at shanghai I think that's way more than enough
yeah, I'm pretty sure Rog will break 300 and that's a great record, no question. If he somehow manages to end up as year end #1 (I doubt it tho) he'll equal Sampras as the only guy to do it 6 times. My personal opinion is that it's not that important as he has nothing really to prove to anyone any more.

So, basically, Fed will be 'holding' all important records ... plenty of fun for his fans :).

Gonzo_style
10-03-2012, 10:33 AM
Djokovic i think, 1000pts is to much for 31yrs old Fed......

RF20Lennon
10-03-2012, 10:54 AM
yeah, I'm pretty sure Rog will break 300 and that's a great record, no question. If he somehow manages to end up as year end #1 (I doubt it tho) he'll equal Sampras as the only guy to do it 6 times. My personal opinion is that it's not that important as he has nothing really to prove to anyone any more.

So, basically, Fed will be 'holding' all important records ... plenty of fun for his fans :).

Yes sir!! :)

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 11:13 AM
MC doesn't really matter that much. Djokovic only played 13 tournaments this year. Fed played 16. Novak is still leading the race, so I assume he'll probably end up as #1. Also, Fed has too many points to defend. But Fed is head and shoulders above anyone else indoor and Murray typically goes on a roll in Asia. I fully expect Murray to pocket his 3rd Shanghai title this year, so Djoko won't gain that many points there even if he wins Beijing. And indoor, Fed reigns (unless he has some kind of wearout/injury going on). Fed will win Basel most certainly and he wins WTF most of the time, so the only question mark for him is Paris but one has to take into account that neither Murray nor Djoko has a great record in Paris and WTF (I know Djoko won Paris and WTF once but since then, he's done rather poorly in both events and Murray hasn't even made a final in those events ), which means that Fed could outperform them even if he doesn't win Paris. On a side note, I find it remarkable that Djoko is leading the race given how few tournaments he's played compared to the others. That speaks volumes about how consistent he's been in the big events. However, in the event Fed plays Shanghai and Murray/Djoko have to duke it out in the semi, Fed would have a golden opportunity to take Shanghai and seal year end #1 at the same time...

Hood_Man
10-03-2012, 11:18 AM
Can you imagine if the race for year end #1 came down to a final between Fed and Djok at the WTF?

If only it was best of 5!

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 11:21 AM
Can you imagine if the race for year end #1 came down to a final between Fed and Djok at the WTF?

If only it was best of 5! It SHOULD be best of 5. That event doesn't have all the credibility the ATP is desperate to give it unfortunately. This (WTF final Fed/Djoko) would be the best case scenario for us spectators, maximum drama and suspense :)

kishnabe
10-03-2012, 11:33 AM
Looks like Federer is paying the price for skipping Monte Carlo.

Looks like Nadal is playing the price for skipping Olympics, Toronto, Cincinatti, US Open, Tokyo and etc.

It won't be long before Ferrer and Murray overtake him.

Evan77
10-03-2012, 12:06 PM
Fed is a better player indoors. I agree. However, both Novak and Roger didn't play the Asian swing last year. Djokovic, if he wins China Open, will win extra 500 points (it's very likely as the field is very weak there. The only player that might challenge him there is Tsonga but his form is questionable right now. Remind you he never lost a match in Shanghai and won the title twice.

As for Murray and Novak, if they meet in Shangai I'd say it's 50/50. Murray was successful last year in Asia but both Djokovic and Fed didn't play. Again both Fed and Novak can only gain points in Shanghai and Murray is irrelevant because he mathematically can not be #1 this year. Plus don't right off Fed in Shanghai, he'll be fresh and he can hurt Murray anywhere. The question is who will do better in Shangai this year, Roger or Novak?

Djokovic lost in Paris last year (W/O to Tsonga, QF), lost in Basel SF, and played like a monkey at the WTF being completely wasted.

Realistically, he just needs to stay ahead one step ahead of Roger and he'll easily end up as #1. Fed needs to defend Basel, Paris and WTF plus play exceptionally well in Asia. very high task for him.

The reason why Djokovic is leading the race by 1000 points (despite the fact that he played only 13 tournaments) is that he simply outperformed Fed at slams (Novak, 1W, 2F, 1SF; Fed 1W, 2SF, 1QF) plus he was more consistent. Djokovic won or reached semis/finals of all tournaments he played this year except for Madrid (lost in QF).

p.s. this is my re to Veroniquem's post #56

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 12:23 PM
Fed is a better player indoors. I agree. However, both Novak and Roger didn't play the Asian swing last year. Djokovic, if he wins China Open, will win extra 500 points (it's very likely as the field is very weak there. The only player that might challenge him there is Tsonga but his form is questionable right now. Remind you he never lost a match in Shanghai and won the title twice.







p.s. this is my re to Veroniquem I'm gonna assume you meant Beijing there? Because Djoko has never won Shanghai. I know Djoko was injured last year, still, in Paris he did well once and that's it. All other times (6 to be precise) that Djoko participated in the event, he didn't even make the semi. He's also reached WTF final only once in 5 participations vs Fed who reached the final almost every single time he's played it. So I don't think it's a given AT ALL Djoko will manage to snatch #1. Personally, I totally hope you're right because I firmly believe that whoever does best in slams should finish the year as #1, it just seems "fair" that it should be this way. But this year is tight and it is undeniable Fed has a non negligible chance to pull it off.

The-Champ
10-03-2012, 12:28 PM
Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in?

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 12:34 PM
Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in? Yes, he does. Murray is about 2200 points behind Fed in the race rankings. Shanghai, Paris, Tokyo and WTF are worth about 4000 points altogether. So, sure, he has a shot especially if Fed does badly. ETA: oops I forgot to add that he's 3200 points behind Djoko though (in the race), so Fed AND Djoko would have to do horrible for Murray to take #1 from both of them, which is why Murray's chance is slim overall.

tennis_pro
10-03-2012, 12:38 PM
Yes, he does. Murray is about 2200 points behind Fed in the race rankings. Shanghai, Paris, Tokyo and WTF are worth about 4000 points altogether. So, sure, he has a shot especially if Fed does badly.

You do know that there's also a guy named Djokovic who has a 3.000 point lead on Murray?

Does Murray have a chance to be no.1 if he wins all the remaining tournaments he participates in?

To answer the question: Murray would have to win everything in sight and hope that both Djokovic and Federer break a leg.

If he does well at the tail end of 2012 he'll have a shot at no 1 after the AO, though when Djok has 2000 points to defend.

Evan77
10-03-2012, 12:39 PM
I'm gonna assume you meant Beijing there? Because Djoko has never won Shanghai. I know Djoko was injured last year, still, in Paris he did well once and that's it. All other times (6 to be precise) that Djoko participated in the event, he didn't even make the semi. He's also reached WTF final only once in 5 participations vs Fed who reached the final almost every single time he's played it. So I don't think it's a given AT ALL Djoko will manage to snatch #1. Personally, I totally hope you're right because I firmly believe that whoever does best in slams should finish the year as #1, that it just seems "fair" that it should be this way. But this year is tight and it it's undeniable Fed has a non negligible chance to pull it off.

ya man, I meant Beijing of course (I was going to talk about Shanghai later so I just brain farted :)). now, you are right about WTF and Paris to some degree. Djokovic did manage to win both events but he never really performed that well at the end of the season except in 2009 when he won Beijing, Basel and Paris and played SF in Shangai. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

All I'm saying is that Roger's path to year end #1 seems to be much more difficult.

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 12:41 PM
You do know that there's also a guy named Djokovic who has a 3.000 point lead on Murray?



. Yes, of course. I amended my post.

tennis_pro
10-03-2012, 12:44 PM
Yes, of course. I amended my post.

I thought you was being ignorant (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKPZCrSf0Iw#t=3m2s), cheers. :)

Hood_Man
10-03-2012, 12:50 PM
I think Murray's scheduled to play Shanghai (1,000), Paris (1,000), Basel (500) and the WTF (1,500 if unbeaten in RR), for a potential maximum of 4,000 points.

If he wins Tokyo that puts him on 7,230 race points, so if he won all 4 tournaments above as well, he'd be on 11,230 points.

Assuming Djokovic wins Beijing for a race total of 10,410, that would be a lead over Djokovic of 820 points at the end of the year, assuming Djokovic wins nothing at all for the rest of the season.

However, Novak could achieve those 820 points with a semifinal in Shanghai (360 points), a quarterfinal in Paris (180), and two wins at the WTF (400), for a total of 940 points, and a year end total of 11,350.

Numerically it's possible, but I'd say it's unlikely. I've not even bothered working out Fed's chances (he should be good for a few finals and semi's at least during the indoor season).



...I think anyway, I'm prone to mistakes :oops:

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 01:39 PM
Actually, it's funny because I think the #1 is a total 2 horse race right now (Fed/Djoko) but I also think that ultimately, it's what Murray does that may determine which 1 of the 2 ends up #1. Indeed, if Murray won everything, at this point, I don't think it would be enough to catch #1 that quickly (Fed and Djoko are not gonna lose every match till year end) but what it would do is prevent Fed from defending his points and what that would do in turn is probably give the year end #1 to Djoko. So, Djoko fans should actually cheer for Murray and Fed fans should cheer against him :)

tennis_pro
10-03-2012, 01:46 PM
Actually, it's funny because I think the #1 is a total 2 horse race right now (Fed/Djoko) but I also think that ultimately, it's what Murray does that may determine which 1 of the 2 ends up #1. Indeed, if Murray won everything, at this point, I don't think it would be enough to catch #1 that quickly (Fed and Djoko are not gonna lose every match till year end) but what it would do is prevent Fed from defending his points and what that would do in turn is probably give the year end #1 to Djoko. So, Djoko fans should actually cheer for Murray and Fed fans should cheer against him :)

It depends.

If Murray and Djokovic get drawn together in one half I will be rooting for Murray to beat Novak (but then lose to Federer in the final). Even if Murray won the title taking Djokovic in the semis and then Fed in the finals, Fed will gain points on Djokovic.

veroniquem
10-03-2012, 02:01 PM
It depends.

If Murray and Djokovic get drawn together in one half I will be rooting for Murray to beat Novak (but then lose to Federer in the final). Even if Murray won the title taking Djokovic in the semis and then Fed in the finals, Fed will gain points on Djokovic. But not necessarily enough to make up the 1000 points that separate him from Djoko right now in the race. (which may become 1500 points after this week). + one would expect Murray won't fall in Djoko's side for all remaining events of the year although given the weird draw occurences over the past few seasons, I wouldn't bet on it either :oops:

batz
10-07-2012, 02:30 AM
Sexi now > 1500 points behind Noel after not playing this week. That's a big hill to climb.

merlinpinpin
10-07-2012, 02:58 AM
Sexi now > 1500 points behind Noel after not playing this week. That's a big hill to climb.

That was in the cards, with the weak field in Beijing.

Getting Murray in his half in Shanghai sure won't help him, though. Murray beating djokovic in the Shanghai semi was almost mandatory to 'compensate' for Beijing, and now it won't happen. Fed's odds sure have gotten worse over the last couple of days... ;)

Romismak
10-07-2012, 08:21 AM
Nole is clear favorite, it is in his hands and i think he will do it. He is 1500 points ahead of Roger in race and they will play now the same tournies - Shanghai, Basel, Paris, WTF - 4000 points left and Roger needs at those events 1500+ vs Nole - thatīs big task under circumstances:

1. Roger is older-played much more matches at this time this season than he is used to - he wonīt be as fresh for indoor season like 2010-2011 when he finished strong both years

2.Nole is here at good form- ready to not only fight, but to win those events - last year we know his end of year was horrible

3. both are 2 highest seeded so Roger doesnīt have the opportunity to stop Nole himself before F - so basically even if Roger will play his best and win all 4 touranments, Nole can be finalist at all events and will earn points

4. thanks to ,,great,, scheduling BAsel-Paris-WTF 3 weeks in row, no way anybody - including Roger or Nole is going to win 15 matches in row there i donīt believe it, most likely Roger will skip or tank Paris- WTF is just most important and BAsel is BAsel he wonīt skip it - so i think 1000 points - or most of them is lost there for Roger...

Under all those circumstances i mentioned Nole is big favorite to end YE No.1 and i think he will end year No.1 and it wonīt be as close as people think, maybe 1000 point differential maybe more for Nole i believe.

RogerFan1991
10-07-2012, 11:48 AM
From now on, if Federer defeats Djokovic in Shanghai, Paris and London finals, plus Federer wins in Basel: Fededer - 12920 pts
Djokovic - 12610 pts

Federer said today in a press conference that he is looking to end as number 1, otherways he wouldnt be playing Shanghai, so supossing he wins both shanghai and basel, with djokovic making final in shanghai, i think he is gonna play paris, he knows better than anyone that dismissing 1000 pts from there means to lose number 1 one at the season's final week, and that would be pretty painful.

batz
10-07-2012, 11:55 AM
From now on, if Federer defeats Djokovic in Shanghai, Paris and London finals, plus Federer wins in Basel: Fededer - 12920 pts
Djokovic - 12610 pts

Federer said today in a press conference that he is looking to end as number 1, otherways he wouldnt be playing Shanghai, so supossing he wins both shanghai and basel, with djokovic making final in shanghai, i think he is gonna play paris, he knows better than anyone that dismissing 1000 pts from there means to lose number 1 one at the season's final week, and that would be pretty painful.

You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?

RogerFan1991
10-07-2012, 12:04 PM
You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?

Yeah, it is as difficult as last year....and Federer pulled it off, and everybody knows Roger loves indoor tennis, he's best indoor player today, and far better than djokovic, so why not think about it?

RogerFan1991
10-07-2012, 12:07 PM
Anyways im not saying federer needs to win all 4 tournaments, i really dont djokovic will reach every final of those 4, maybe not even 1, who knows.

cc0509
10-07-2012, 12:10 PM
You think Roger is going to play and win, 3 weeks back to back? Any idea how tough that is to pull off?

It will definitely be tough to pull off but with Roger you never know especially since it is the indoor season where he is supreme. Why do you think he is in godforsaken Shanghai to begin with at this point in his career? I guess that means he wants to try and do what he can. Personally I doubt he will be able to do it, but, never say never.

Romismak
10-07-2012, 12:11 PM
Yeah, it is as difficult as last year....and Federer pulled it off, and everybody knows Roger loves indoor tennis, he's best indoor player today, and far better than djokovic, so why not think about it?

Last year it wasnīt 3 weeks in row - there was week off between Paris and WTF like always used to be, since this season there is no week between Paris 1000 and WTF

He is not far better than Nole indoors, yes he is better indoor player, but not far better , he is far better indoor player than Nadal for example

This season Roger played alredy too many matches + said himself he is tired before DC, + he is again 1 year older than he was last indoor season

Last thing - most important one - competition at indoor season will be much tougher, last year Rogerīs biggest competition indoors was Tsonga, Nole burned out-after injury, Rafa - burned out - plus he sucks indoors, than Murray - mediocre and injured-WTF

This year there will be better Murray + much much better Djokovic

With all those things i mentioned i am 100% confident Roger has no chance to win all 3 indoor events

RogerFan1991
10-07-2012, 12:28 PM
Last year it wasnīt 3 weeks in row - there was week off between Paris and WTF like always used to be, since this season there is no week between Paris 1000 and WTF

He is not far better than Nole indoors, yes he is better indoor player, but not far better , he is far better indoor player than Nadal for example

This season Roger played alredy too many matches + said himself he is tired before DC, + he is again 1 year older than he was last indoor season

Last thing - most important one - competition at indoor season will be much tougher, last year Rogerīs biggest competition indoors was Tsonga, Nole burned out-after injury, Rafa - burned out - plus he sucks indoors, than Murray - mediocre and injured-WTF

This year there will be better Murray + much much better Djokovic

With all those things i mentioned i am 100% confident Roger has no chance to win all 3 indoor events

First, Federer has played just 7 more matches than last year as of this date; second, Federer may not be so tired physicaly, because he hasnt played in 3 weeks, he lost early in the US Open, where he just played 4 matches, and all of those were short, he won cincinnati with an acumulated of 6 hours, loosing no sets, all pretty fast matches, and he didnt play toronto. He may yes be tired mentally, but that goes for djokovic too, and in fact, who may yes be much more tired is Djokovic, who played this week, reched us open final, where he had to play 5 sets, he played consecutively olympics, toronto and cicninnati.....so im gonna leave this by your judgment.

And one more thing, im sure federer feels more uncomfortable playing tsonga than djokovic in indoors, believe me. So dont think this year there's better competition, maybe different competion.

I mean, dont just be so confident because you may receive a big and swiss surprise in the end.

batz
10-07-2012, 12:30 PM
Yeah, it is as difficult as last year....and Federer pulled it off, and everybody knows Roger loves indoor tennis, he's best indoor player today, and far better than djokovic, so why not think about it?

No he didn't. I don't even remember the last time Roger played 3 weeks back to back, let alone won 3 weeks back to back - no doubt he has probably done it, but not many times. It's not something that happens very often.

Romismak
10-07-2012, 12:43 PM
First, Federer has played just 7 more matches than last year as of this date; second, Federer may not be so tired physicaly, because he hasnt played in 3 weeks, he lost early in the US Open, where he just played 4 matches, and all of those were short, he won cincinnati with an acumulated of 6 hours, loosing no sets, all pretty fast matches, and he didnt play toronto. He may yes be tired mentally, but that goes for djokovic too, and in fact, who may yes be much more tired is Djokovic, who played this week, reched us open final, where he had to play 5 sets, he played consecutively olympics, toronto and cicninnati.....so im gonna leave this by your judgment.

And one more thing, im sure federer feels more uncomfortable playing tsonga than djokovic in indoors, believe me. So dont think this year there's better competition, maybe different competion.

I mean, dont just be so confident because you may receive a big and swiss surprise in the end.

Yes he played more matches at this point than last year, he is 1 year older again - harder to regenerate and so on so on.. he wonīt be as fresh for indoor season he was 2010-2011 - thatīs just fact.

Competition will be tougher, simply Nole wasnīt there last year, this year he will be there - yes he played a lot, but he can handle it in 2009 he played most matches on tour and won Basel, Paris, won 2/3 matches at WTF just set-games differential stopped him from advance from RR group

Murray will be as good as last indoor season if not better, Tsonga-Berdych should be fine indoors with their games - with no wind there are both top 5 indoors

Rafa is irrelevant indoors so doesnīt matter he is not here. So competition will be at least little bit tougher if you want or not those are facts

Yes i am confident to say Roger wonīt win Basel, Paris, WTF - i am 100% sure about it, 31 year old guy who has play a lot alredy in this season wonīwin 15 matches - or 14 i am not sure if BAsel is 4 or 5 match tournament for top seeded - simply Roger wonīt win 14-15 matches in 3 weeks at hig age and with Nole, Andy, Berdych,Tsonga around, either Andy-Nole will exhaust him in long rallies one match or Tsonga-Berdych will blow him off the court or he just will skip-tank Paris- which is not so unrealistic if you think about it.

batz
10-07-2012, 12:49 PM
Yes he played more matches at this point than last year, he is 1 year older again - harder to regenerate and so on so on.. he wonīt be as fresh for indoor season he was 2010-2011 - thatīs just fact.

Competition will be tougher, simply Nole wasnīt there last year, this year he will be there - yes he played a lot, but he can handle it in 2009 he played most matches on tour and won Basel, Paris, won 2/3 matches at WTF just set-games differential stopped him from advance from RR group

Murray will be as good as last indoor season if not better, Tsonga-Berdych should be fine indoors with their games - with no wind there are both top 5 indoors

Rafa is irrelevant indoors so doesnīt matter he is not here. So competition will be at least little bit tougher if you want or not those are facts

Yes i am confident to say Roger wonīt win Basel, Paris, WTF - i am 100% sure about it, 31 year old guy who has play a lot alredy in this season wonīwin 15 matches - or 14 i am not sure if BAsel is 4 or 5 match tournament for top seeded - simply Roger wonīt win 14-15 matches in 3 weeks at hig age and with Nole, Andy, Berdych,Tsonga around, either Andy-Nole will exhaust him in long rallies one match or Tsonga-Berdych will blow him off the court or he just will skip-tank Paris- which is not so unrealistic if you think about it.


Someone seems to have forgot that Roger skipped the entire Asian swing last year in order to have enough in the tank for his indoor treble.

Roger might win Shanghai then play and win 3 seeks back to back after only 1 week off - but I really don't think it's likely.

Sartorius
10-07-2012, 12:52 PM
A quick look at the points race is telling, it's mostly in Djokovic's hands. Federer will want to keep it of course but he has actually said that his goal was to recapture the ranking and not necessarily retain it, and he achieved that goal. It would be more exciting if Federer was still looking to get it back.

Romismak
10-07-2012, 12:54 PM
Someone seems to have forgot that Roger skipped the entire Asian swing last year in order to have enough in the tank for his indoor treble.

Roger might win Shanghai then play and win 3 seeks back to back after only 1 week off - but I really don't think it's likely.

I havenīt forget i know that he didnīt play Shanghai last year, my point was he played more matches at this point and is older than he was 1 year ago - Shangha is just another factor here - he wonīt be as fresh for indoor season for more than 1 reason.

Winning Shanghai and than indoor event - 4tournaments in 5 weeks at his age vs all younger guys - isnīt happening - 0% chance

RogerFan1991
10-07-2012, 01:02 PM
I havenīt forget i know that he didnīt play Shanghai last year, my point was he played more matches at this point and is older than he was 1 year ago - Shangha is just another factor here - he wonīt be as fresh for indoor season for more than 1 reason.

Winning Shanghai and than indoor event - 4tournaments in 5 weeks at his age vs all younger guys - isnīt happening - 0% chance

Where did you buy that crystal ball??? I want one.

Romismak
10-07-2012, 01:05 PM
Where did you buy that crystal ball??? I want one.

Now honestly besides that you are Rogerīs fan just by name i assume.

I like Roger too, but it wonīt happen. Also Nole wonīt win everything no way. To many matches in short period of time at this time of the year when everyone of top gyus must feel something - pain, tiredness after logn season and so on, just canīt see Roger or anybody else to either win 3 weeks in row all indoor events or including Shanghai win 4 events in 5 weeks.

RogerFan1991
10-07-2012, 01:13 PM
Now honestly besides that you are Rogerīs fan just by name i assume.

I like Roger too, but it wonīt happen. Also Nole wonīt win everything no way. To many matches in short period of time at this time of the year when everyone of top gyus must feel something - pain, tiredness after logn season and so on, just canīt see Roger or anybody else to either win 3 weeks in row all indoor events or including Shanghai win 4 events in 5 weeks.

Who is saying federer is gonna win all those tournaments? Im not saying that, the fact is that roger doesnt need to win everything to end as number 1.

But, however, i would not be surprised if federer won 3 this last 4 tournaments, this has been his best surface the last two years.

Hood_Man
10-07-2012, 01:14 PM
I suspect that Roger's improved success during the indoor season the past two years, had a lot to do with his relatively poorer results earlier in both seasons. Or to put it another way, he was more rested.

This year he's had a very busy season, and if he intends to end the year as #1 he'll end the year with something close to 90 matches played.

I think Novak will take it, but I think Federer may very well push himself hard to try and hold him off. I just don't think he'll do it.

[EDIT]

Before I get called out on this... I'm not saying he's not awesome indoors, he clearly is. But I think his success this year might be a disadvantage at this point of the season. Possibly...

Evan77
10-07-2012, 01:18 PM
33 votes from delusional Fed brigade 'fans/*****' who are pretty clueless as usual. All most of them know is to worship their Goddess Federina. If we opened a new poll 'Who has the most beautiful nose on the ATP tour', I'm sure Noserer would win that one too.

At least Romismak got it right, being very neutral and realistic.

Romismak
10-07-2012, 01:38 PM
Who is saying federer is gonna win all those tournaments? Im not saying that, the fact is that roger doesnt need to win everything to end as number 1.

But, however, i would not be surprised if federer won 3 this last 4 tournaments, this has been his best surface the last two years.

I am just saying he wonīt win 3/3 indoors thatīs all.

Romismak
10-07-2012, 01:41 PM
33 votes from delusional Fed brigade 'fans/*****' who are pretty clueless as usual. All most of them know is to worship their Goddess Federina. If we opened a new poll 'Who has the most beautiful nose on the ATP tour', I'm sure Noserer would win that one too.

At least Romismak got it right, being very neutral and realistic.

Thanks, and yes i am neutral i like both of them-funny reason besides gamestyles- i am slovak and Rogerīs wife is slovak too and well Vajda is well knows too i think - so i really am neutral here and saying what i think how it looks like. Everyone has his own opinion, but reallistically 1500 points lead in race with 4000 points left with 4 tournaments in 5 weeks and 3 in 3 weeks under all those circumstances i wrote - Nole is clear favorite to YE No.1 thatīall. And yes Roger can be YE No.1 - there is chance small but there is, but donīt believe in 3/3 indoors and defninitely not all 4 remaining titles for Roger from 4 tournaments

Evan77
10-07-2012, 01:47 PM
Thanks, and yes i am neutral i like both of them-funny reason besides gamestyles- i am slovak and Rogerīs wife is slovak too and well Vajda is well knows too i think - so i really am neutral here and saying what i think how it looks like. Everyone has his own opinion, but reallistically 1500 points lead in race with 4000 points left with 4 tournaments in 5 weeks and 3 in 3 weeks under all those circumstances i wrote - Nole is clear favorite to YE No.1 thatīall. And yes Roger can be YE No.1 - there is chance small but there is, but donīt believe in 3/3 indoors and defninitely not all 4 remaining titles for Roger from 4 tournaments
well, exactly. everything you said is correct. I know that Fed has a small chance, but it is very, very small and not very likely, so unless Djokovic breaks both of his arms and legs it ain't gonna happen.

Gonzo_style
10-07-2012, 02:03 PM
well, exactly. everything you said is correct. I know that Fed has a small chance, but it is very, very small and not very likely, so unless Djokovic breaks both of his arms and legs it ain't gonna happen.

Evan77, my friend, don't lose your time, let him believe that 31yrs old Fed is going to win 15 matches in 3 consecutive weeks.....

Ico
10-07-2012, 02:08 PM
I don't know for sure who will end up YE#1, but whoever wins the WTF among Federer, Djokovic, and Murray would be my pick for Player of the Year.

Gonzo_style
10-07-2012, 02:18 PM
I don't know for sure who will end up YE#1, but whoever wins the WTF among Federer, Djokovic, and Murray would be my pick for Player of the Year.

Well Federer and Djok won WTF before, so this year i'm hoping for Murray....

Evan77
10-07-2012, 02:18 PM
Evan77, my friend, don't lose your time, let him believe that 31yrs old Fed is going to win 15 matches in 3 consecutive weeks.....
Gonzo, I know. I just wish that all of us on this board, as tennis lovers, would be more realistic/neutral instead of projecting our wishful thinking as some cyber reality. the matter of rankings is a very simple math. it's really not that difficult. I just get irritated when some guys on TW use extremely flawed logic to worship their favorite players without making any/or very little sense.

Gonzo_style
10-07-2012, 02:36 PM
Gonzo, I know. I just wish that all of us on this board, as tennis lovers, would be more realistic/neutral instead of projecting our wishful thinking as some cyber reality. the matter of rankings is a very simple math. it's really not that difficult. I just get irritated when some guys on TW use extremely flawed logic to worship their favorite players without making any/or very little sense.

That would be tennis Utopia, but ain't gonna happen

Evan77
10-07-2012, 02:47 PM
That would be tennis Utopia, but ain't gonna happen
lol, I'm afraid you are right again. I'll try to be positive here. At least TW is not as bad as MTF which is a complete jungle full of teenagers who started watching tennis like yesterday. I go there once in a while to get entertained by some fantastic gems :). MTF never disappoints me. The level of stupidity going on there is just beyond me, although there are some super smart guys there but it's like 5% or so.

Gonzo_style
10-07-2012, 02:58 PM
lol, I'm afraid you are right again. I'll try to be positive here. At least TW is not as bad as MTF which is a complete jungle full of teenagers who started watching tennis like yesterday. I go there once in a while to get entertained by some fantastic gems :). MTF never disappoints me. The level of stupidity going on there is just beyond me, although there are some super smart guys there but it's like 5% or so.

Yes i'm read TTW and MTF very long, MTF is tennis circus!