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McEnroeisanartist
10-12-2012, 10:30 AM
I thought it would be interesting to compare Federer's fighting spirit over the years. Fighting spirit defined as winning a two out of three set match after losing the first set.

2004 4-1
2005 6-0
2006 6-1
2007 2-6
2008 4-6
2009 3-6
2010 3-3
2011 0-6
2012 8-3

ollinger
10-12-2012, 10:33 AM
In what sense do you find it interesting? What do you conclude?

Avles
10-12-2012, 10:42 AM
Presumably he's concluding that Federer's fighting spirit has declined in recent years but has rebounded over the past year.

The difference between 2012 and 2007-2011 is stark enough to think that it might represent something more than coincidence.

But I don't think it makes sense to assume that "fighting spirit" is primarily responsible for results after losing a first set. Maybe it's fitness. Or it could be that Federer has lost the first set to inferior players this year as compared to in past years, making a comeback more likely. Or it could be that his first-set losses have tended to come in GS matches this year. Or it could be just be coincidence after all.

Basically, you'd have to look a lot further before drawing any conclusions about fighting spirit.

smoledman
10-12-2012, 10:46 AM
Presumably he's concluding that Federer's fighting spirit has declined in recent years but has rebounded over the past year.

The difference between 2012 and 2007-2011 is stark enough to think that it might represent something more than coincidence.

But I don't think it makes sense to assume that "fighting spirit" is primarily responsible for results after losing a first set. Maybe it's fitness. Or it could be that Federer has lost the first set to inferior players this year as compared to in past years, making a comeback more likely. Or it could be that his first-set losses have tended to come in GS matches this year. Or it could be just be coincidence after all.

Basically, you'd have to look a lot further before drawing any conclusions about fighting spirit.

Except I remember him losing first sets to inferior players in 2006.

AO final - Baggy
Toronto final - Gasquet
YEC RR - Roddick

zam88
10-12-2012, 10:53 AM
on the other hand it seems like he's doing better of late in 5 set matches when he dumps the first two sets.

he's obviously not winning a ton of those (few do) but he's had some pretty good comebacks lately from 0-2 to win 3-2.. thinking of the FO, Wimbledon in recent years.

smoledman
10-12-2012, 10:56 AM
on the other hand it seems like he's doing better of late in 5 set matches when he dumps the first two sets.

he's obviously not winning a ton of those (few do) but he's had some pretty good comebacks lately from 0-2 to win 3-2.. thinking of the FO, Wimbledon in recent years.

In his prime he never needed to come from behind 0-2 at FO/Wimbledon. Chalk it up to decline. Who did he beat in these 5-setters in recent years? Haas(choker), Berdych(mental), Falla(claycourt bum), Benneteau(journeyman), Del Potro(was injured).

zam88
10-12-2012, 11:01 AM
In his prime he never needed to come from behind 0-2 at FO/Wimbledon. Chalk it up to decline. Who did he beat in these 5-setters in recent years? Haas(choker), Berdych(mental), Falla(claycourt bum), Benneteau(journeyman), Del Potro(was injured).


well definitely i agree, that's the other part of the argument.

in '04-07 he didn't dump many sets period so there wasn't even the opportunity to do a comeback to test "fighting spirit"


Having said that, i still agree with the original post, after winning AO '10 Federer had a noticeable decline.. I think after not winning much for a year he decided to ramp things back up.

What I don't know is if he'll be able to keep things ramped up after meeting another set of career goals.

You almost wonder if he'll have to go through a losing streak again to have the will to ramp it back up again... and the problem will be it's pretty hard to ramp things back up with you're 32/33

sureshs
10-12-2012, 11:04 AM
What about the best of 5 Slam matches?

6-1 6-3 6-0
10-12-2012, 11:05 AM
What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

McEnroeisanartist
10-12-2012, 11:07 AM
What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

Like Nadal with his old man knees?

McEnroeisanartist
10-12-2012, 11:09 AM
Presumably he's concluding that Federer's fighting spirit has declined in recent years but has rebounded over the past year.

The difference between 2012 and 2007-2011 is stark enough to think that it might represent something more than coincidence.

But I don't think it makes sense to assume that "fighting spirit" is primarily responsible for results after losing a first set. Maybe it's fitness. Or it could be that Federer has lost the first set to inferior players this year as compared to in past years, making a comeback more likely. Or it could be that his first-set losses have tended to come in GS matches this year. Or it could be just be coincidence after all.

Basically, you'd have to look a lot further before drawing any conclusions about fighting spirit.

Yes, of course, that is what I am concluding. Is this measure perfect for defining his fight. No, of course not. But, I can not think of another way to statistically show how much Federer's effort and will to win as picked up over the last few years.

dominikk1985
10-12-2012, 11:11 AM
I thought it would be interesting to compare Federer's fighting spirit over the years. Fighting spirit defined as winning a two out of three set match after losing the first set.

2004 4-1
2005 6-0
2006 6-1
2007 2-6
2008 4-6
2009 3-6
2010 3-3
2011 0-6
2012 8-3

Well 07 and 09 were 2 of his best years despite having a negative record. I would not read too much into this

smoledman
10-12-2012, 11:13 AM
Federer has definitely shown more desire in the non-slam events since hooking up with Annacone.

above bored
10-12-2012, 11:31 AM
What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?
Actually, Federer has beaten his biggest rivals many times.

On top of that ....... http://www.tennischannel.com/goat/71.aspx

underground
10-12-2012, 11:59 AM
Roger 3.0. He's less likely to give away matches or choke up tight situations in 2012. He really was in decline in 2011, 0-6 is pretty bad.

It's amazing to see in 2005 Fed hasn't lost any Bo3 matches when he lost the 1st set. :shock:

Prisoner of Birth
10-12-2012, 12:03 PM
I thought it would be interesting to compare Federer's fighting spirit over the years. Fighting spirit defined as winning a two out of three set match after losing the first set.

2004 4-1
2005 6-0
2006 6-1
2007 2-6
2008 4-6
2009 3-6
2010 3-3
2011 0-6
2012 8-3

I think it's more a question of desire than anything else. Federer seems to have woken up in the past year with the desire to get to #1 again. He wasn't doing all that great at Slams and knew he had to win as many Masters titles as he could to be able to get there. He always hated losing but I don't think he was ever particularly determined during Masters tournaments (atleast not as much as he was during Grand Slams) in his prime or even 2008/2009. That could probably explain these stats.

Avles
10-12-2012, 12:33 PM
Yes, of course, that is what I am concluding. Is this measure perfect for defining his fight. No, of course not. But, I can not think of another way to statistically show how much Federer's effort and will to win as picked up over the last few years.

Whoops, didn't see that you'd specified best of 3.

Anyway, let's look a little closer here.

These are the opponents that Fed has lost first sets against in 2012:

Wins
Del Potro
Raonic (twice)
Roddick
Davydenko
Bellucci
Wawrinka
Berdych

Losses
Djokovic
Roddick
Haas

These are the players that Fed lost a first set against in 2011:
Losses
Djokovic (twice)
Nadal
Melzer
Berdych
Tsonga

Federer has lost many more first sets this year than last, and most of 2012's lost first sets came against players ranked well below him. You'd expect him to have a pretty good chance to come back against those guys.

On the other hand 4 of Fed's 6 first-set losses in 2011 came against top 10 players (and that's not including Tsonga who clearly belongs in the top 10). So it's not all that surprising that he didn't come back to win those matches.

I'm not convinced that Fed's beating guys like Roddick, Davydenko, Bellucci, Raonic, Del Potro and Wawrinka in 3 shows improved fighting spirit. If anything it may suggest that he's having a bit more trouble against inferior players in the first set.

I think there's an element of luck and small sample size here as well. In the 2005 season where Federer went 6-0 after losing the first set, 3 of those 6 wins came in a third set TB. That year's results could have looked a lot different if a few points had gone differently.

dangalak
10-12-2012, 08:03 PM
In his prime he never needed to come from behind 0-2 at FO/Wimbledon. Chalk it up to decline. Who did he beat in these 5-setters in recent years? Haas(choker), Berdych(mental), Falla(claycourt bum), Benneteau(journeyman), Del Potro(was injured).

Del Potro was injured when he won those first 2 sets too.

Bennetau "the journeyman" would've possibly kicked out Djokovic or Nadal with the form he was playing. Who gives a **** where he is ranked?

Besides, you act like other people who constantly come back from 2 sets to 0 do it against mental GOATs....oh wait, what's that? Mentally tough players typically don't lose from 2 sets to lo 0 in the first place? And Djokovic and nadal don't have too many comebacks from the same position anyway?

What a useless post yours is.

Tony48
10-12-2012, 08:07 PM
2005: Wow
2011: Wow

underground
10-13-2012, 01:03 AM
Whoops, didn't see that you'd specified best of 3.

Anyway, let's look a little closer here.

These are the opponents that Fed has lost first sets against in 2012:

Wins
Del Potro
Raonic (twice)
Roddick
Davydenko
Bellucci
Wawrinka
Berdych

Losses
Djokovic
Roddick
Haas

These are the players that Fed lost a first set against in 2011:
Losses
Djokovic (twice)
Nadal
Melzer
Berdych
Tsonga

Federer has lost many more first sets this year than last, and most of 2012's lost first sets came against players ranked well below him. You'd expect him to have a pretty good chance to come back against those guys.

On the other hand 4 of Fed's 6 first-set losses in 2011 came against top 10 players (and that's not including Tsonga who clearly belongs in the top 10). So it's not all that surprising that he didn't come back to win those matches.

I'm not convinced that Fed's beating guys like Roddick, Davydenko, Bellucci, Raonic, Del Potro and Wawrinka in 3 shows improved fighting spirit. If anything it may suggest that he's having a bit more trouble against inferior players in the first set.

I think there's an element of luck and small sample size here as well. In the 2005 season where Federer went 6-0 after losing the first set, 3 of those 6 wins came in a third set TB. That year's results could have looked a lot different if a few points had gone differently.


I think it's 3 times he came back from a set down against Raonic. IW, Madrid and Halle.

joeri888
10-13-2012, 01:34 AM
What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

What good it is? It's worth 300 weeks of being world no. 1, 17 grandslams, 6 YEC's, a gold, a silver medal at olympic games, 21 MS titles, and 73 million in prize money.

merlinpinpin
10-13-2012, 02:37 AM
What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

True. That's why :) RNadal :) was so disheartened to have lost 100% of his matches against the #100-ranked player that he decided he wouldn't touch a tennis racket for the last six months of the season. Negative h2h is such a b1tch when a good h2h is all your moronic fans want from you... :(

NadalDramaQueen
10-13-2012, 02:41 AM
True. That's why :) RNadal :) was so disheartened he has now lost 100% of his matches against Rosol that he decided he wouldn't touch a tennis racket for the last six months of the season.

He wasn't able to beat Rosol even once? Wow, I didn't realize that Rosol had that kind of hold over RNadal.

http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/250x250/28285300.jpg

SQA333
10-13-2012, 03:19 AM
What good is a fighting spirit if you can't use it to beat your biggest rival?

What good is a fighting spirit if your body doesn't allow you to step on the court and use it? :lol:

Roger Federer - 17 Slams and counting, 300 weeks at #1 and counting

Rafael Nadal - 2 heavily botched knees :lol: