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View Full Version : Should the draw favor the top ranked player? Not in the ATP


tennis_pro
10-13-2012, 02:14 AM
Ever since Nadal's wheels fell off at Wimbledon, we have 3 players who compete for titles these days - Federer, Djokovic and Murray. As Fed and Djoko are the top ranked players, the only virtual threat is Murray who is "randomly" placed in either half of the draw. Ironically, Murray the 3rd seed, has more often than not landed in Federer's draw.

The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
Canada - Federer didn't play but if he did he would be drawn with Murray in one half (the no 1 and 3 seeds were in 1 half)
Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer

I wouldn't be surprised if Murray landed in Federer's half in Paris and the WTF.

dangalak
10-13-2012, 02:21 AM
This isn't nearly on the level of the obvious draw rigging of Djokovic and Federer semifinals. :lol: Statistically impossible.

"It's not impossible, just improbable." Yeah, improbable. As improbable as you rolling a dice 200 times and still getting the same result.

What you are basically doing is, the ATP is telling you that they flipped a coin 19 times and 15 times it was heads and you believe them, instead of the far more plausible solution that the draw is rigged. How about some real estate on the moon?

Russeljones
10-13-2012, 02:24 AM
Ever since Nadal's wheels fell off at Wimbledon, we have 3 players who compete for titles these days - Federer, Djokovic and Murray. As Fed and Djoko are the top ranked players, the only virtual threat is Murray who is "randomly" placed in either half of the draw. Ironically, Murray the 3rd seed, has more often than not landed in Federer's draw.

The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
Canada - Federer didn't play but if he did he would be drawn with Murray in one half (the no 1 and 3 seeds were in 1 half)
Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer

I wouldn't be surprised if Murray landed in Federer's half in Paris and the WTF.


I think you're overstating Murray's threat to Federer. Even in this golden autumn of the Swiss's career, he can dish out quite a punishment when on form. If he is to win the tournament he needs to be on form. If he isn't, then he simply doesn't deserve to win does he? :)

Zildite
10-13-2012, 02:48 AM
3/5 and one of those he didn't even play, seems a stretch at this point to call it into question.

tennis_pro
10-13-2012, 02:53 AM
I think you're overstating Murray's threat to Federer. Even in this golden autumn of the Swiss's career, he can dish out quite a punishment when on form. If he is to win the tournament he needs to be on form. If he isn't, then he simply doesn't deserve to win does he? :)

I take anyone not named Murray to be drawn with Federer in his half, then. Whether it's Berdych, Tsonga or Ferrer. Berdych would probably be the biggest ask but when playing decent Federer is the firm favorite, against Murray he has to play well.

SQA333
10-13-2012, 03:17 AM
No. Draws should be completely random.

Pouet156
10-13-2012, 04:25 AM
Well, they usually are. You cannot draw conclusion about randomness on like... 5 events.

As for the Djokovic / Federer "rigging" .. when you look at the seeding number and not the names behind the seed (that is what is drawn : numbers) it was something like number 3 was drawn 8 times with #1 and 10 times with #2 so it was sufficiently close to 50-50 ...
Unfortunately, Fed and Novak changed positions as seeds during that period of time...

If you flip a coin but change what's on the sides of the coins, you probably won't get 50-50 either...

dangalak
10-13-2012, 04:40 AM
Well, they usually are. You cannot draw conclusion about randomness on like... 5 events.

As for the Djokovic / Federer "rigging" .. when you look at the seeding number and not the names behind the seed (that is what is drawn : numbers) it was something like number 3 was drawn 8 times with #1 and 10 times with #2 so it was sufficiently close to 50-50 ...
Unfortunately, Fed and Novak changed positions as seeds during that period of time...

If you flip a coin but change what's on the sides of the coins, you probably won't get 50-50 either...

...............................

It doesn't make a difference. 1 is the same as 2 and 3 is the same as 4.

There was even a study saying that it isn't random anymore.

http://tt.tennis-warehouse.com/showthread.php?t=394943

EDIT: I get what you mean, but it is HIGHLY unlikely that Federer and Djokovic get the same half as well. I mean, there IS a 50% probablility of them being in the same half. Until AO they were like 13 out of 15 for God's sake.

Pouet156
10-13-2012, 05:16 AM
If they were rigged to have a Nadal / Fed match, they would have been seeded in the same half when it was possible, as Federer often failed to reach the final.

What is important is the seed number, and it is almost evenly distributed...
One could compute the probability than the ranking change influence the ratio for Novak/Fed in the same half. I'm too lazy to do it but I bet it is higher than winning the lottery... and yet, people win the lottery...

Furthermore, when looking only at the Grand Slams, you only look at a subset of all the tourneys they are seeded in together...

dangalak
10-13-2012, 06:02 AM
If they were rigged to have a Nadal / Fed match, they would have been seeded in the same half when it was possible, as Federer often failed to reach the final.

What is important is the seed number, and it is almost evenly distributed...
One could compute the probability than the ranking change influence the ratio for Novak/Fed in the same half. I'm too lazy to do it but I bet it is higher than winning the lottery... and yet, people win the lottery...

Furthermore, when looking only at the Grand Slams, you only look at a subset of all the tourneys they are seeded in together...

....................

Good God, that is some of the worst logic that I've ever seen.

tacou
10-13-2012, 07:20 AM
this has been gone over so many times and TT posters continue to misunderstand logic, probability, etc.

Murray just lost to Raonic, Berdych beat Fed at USO.

The 4 tourneys OP listed show a 50/50 split of Murray's placement

Gonzo_style
10-13-2012, 07:26 AM
Ever since Nadal's wheels fell off at Wimbledon, we have 3 players who compete for titles these days - Federer, Djokovic and Murray. As Fed and Djoko are the top ranked players, the only virtual threat is Murray who is "randomly" placed in either half of the draw. Ironically, Murray the 3rd seed, has more often than not landed in Federer's draw.

The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
Canada - Federer didn't play but if he did he would be drawn with Murray in one half (the no 1 and 3 seeds were in 1 half)
Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer

I wouldn't be surprised if Murray landed in Federer's half in Paris and the WTF.

You forgot what happen when Djokovic was #1?

jokinla
10-13-2012, 07:27 AM
They should place at least the top 4 if not all the seeds, since they have earned the ranking, they earn the easier path, but for whatever reason they make it random, which as we see doesn't end up seeming so random.

BauerAlmeida
10-13-2012, 01:54 PM
Draws are rigged. The proof is the Federer-Djokovic SF in GS. Obviously it isn't happening now because they are 1 and 2.

For me it should always be 1vs4 and 2vs3 in the Semis.

batz
10-13-2012, 02:05 PM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8H39qSkwteXVAVgHLN6que284o6vnL Y6LnArMt4QIdj4qvpPyjA

jokinla
10-13-2012, 11:55 PM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8H39qSkwteXVAVgHLN6que284o6vnL Y6LnArMt4QIdj4qvpPyjA

You know this place is one big circle.

Spider
10-14-2012, 12:07 AM
Not really. If you are the "world's number one player", at least on computer, you should be able to beat the players in front of you.

Andy just happens to be hitting his prime so, to win a tournament, someone will have to beat him - be it semi, finals, etc.

Pouet156
10-14-2012, 03:59 AM
Draws are rigged. The proof is the Federer-Djokovic SF in GS. Obviously it isn't happening now because they are 1 and 2.

For me it should always be 1vs4 and 2vs3 in the Semis.
Yes, that would be good, and then we won't have threads about rigged draws...

mellowyellow
10-14-2012, 12:14 PM
To all naysayers, one only research the 1996 USO draw and realize this is not even up for debate.

tennis_pro
10-26-2012, 10:47 AM
One more to the collection.

Towser83
10-26-2012, 11:54 AM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8H39qSkwteXVAVgHLN6que284o6vnL Y6LnArMt4QIdj4qvpPyjA

Lol gone is the fed/Novak conspiracy and to replace it is the fed/Murray one.

sdont
10-26-2012, 12:51 PM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8H39qSkwteXVAVgHLN6que284o6vnL Y6LnArMt4QIdj4qvpPyjA

lol, nice pic.

sdont
10-26-2012, 12:55 PM
As for the Djokovic / Federer "rigging" .. when you look at the seeding number and not the names behind the seed (that is what is drawn : numbers) it was something like number 3 was drawn 8 times with #1 and 10 times with #2 so it was sufficiently close to 50-50 ...
Unfortunately, Fed and Novak changed positions as seeds during that period of time...

If you flip a coin but change what's on the sides of the coins, you probably won't get 50-50 either...

Please, stop it.

Steve0904
10-26-2012, 12:57 PM
It's happened again. 1 vs 3. How people don't think these draws are rigged is beyond me.

tennis_pro
01-10-2013, 03:32 PM
Fantastic.

So Federer drawn with Murray in the same half in both the US and AO. I'm absolutely disgusted.

Gonzo_style
01-10-2013, 04:08 PM
What is wrong? Draw favor the top ranked player

monfed
01-10-2013, 04:11 PM
Fantastic.

So Federer drawn with Murray in the same half in both the US and AO. I'm absolutely disgusted.

Yea,it's too tempting to call it a conspiracy.

monfed
01-10-2013, 04:11 PM
What is wrong? Draw favor the top ranked player

So why didn't it favour Federer who was #1 in USO then?

Gonzo_style
01-10-2013, 04:19 PM
So why didn't it favour Federer who was #1 in USO then?

Strange things are happening

tennis_pro
01-10-2013, 04:27 PM
What is wrong? Draw favor the top ranked player

Really. It doesn't favor Federer now when he's no 2, didn't favor him when he was first. Conclusion: the draw doesn't favor Federer no matter what the ranking.

SQA333
01-10-2013, 04:31 PM
Really. It doesn't favor Federer now when he's no 2, didn't favor him when he was first. Conclusion: the draw doesn't favor Federer no matter what the ranking.

Maybe this is payback for always getting Davydenko or equivalent as his QF opponent all those years back. :lol:

Steve0904
01-10-2013, 04:33 PM
Maybe this is payback for always getting Davydenko or equivalent as his QF opponent all those years back. :lol:

Davydenko back in the day was better than the equivalents today. Read Tsonga, Berdych, or Delpo

tennis_pro
01-10-2013, 04:36 PM
The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
Canada - no-one played except Djokovic
Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer
Paris - no-one played so doesn't matter
WTF - Murray drawn with Djokovic but it doesn't matter since Federer would have to play both anyway (and he did)
AO - Murray drawn with Federer again

veroniquem
01-10-2013, 04:38 PM
What is wrong? Draw favor the top ranked player

That's what the Fed fans always said when people complained about draws in the past: "the #1 should get the best draw, it's the reward for being #1". It seems they've changed their mind all of a sudden :)

Gonzo_style
01-10-2013, 04:39 PM
]
Paris - no-one played so doesn't matter


Really? :)

Gonzo_style
01-10-2013, 04:40 PM
That's what the Fed fans always said when people complained about draws in the past: "the #1 should get the best draw, it's the reward for being #1". It seems they've changed their mind all of a sudden :)

LOL exactly!

SQA333
01-10-2013, 04:40 PM
The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
Canada - no-one played except Djokovic
Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer
Paris - no-one played so doesn't matter
WTF - Murray drawn with Djokovic but it doesn't matter since Federer would have to play both anyway (and he did)
AO - Murray drawn with Federer again

If you remember Federer had a brutal draw in Paris. Something like Simon in R2, Berdych in QF and Murray in SF. (Granted, had he stayed on, it would've been Janowicz in the semis)

Zildite
01-10-2013, 04:42 PM
The Olympics - Murray drawn with Djokovic
Canada - no-one played except Djokovic
Cincinnati - Murray drawn with Djokovic
the US Open (the biggest of them all) - Federer drawn with Murray
Shanghai - Murray drawn with Federer
Paris - no-one played so doesn't matter
WTF - Murray drawn with Djokovic but it doesn't matter since Federer would have to play both anyway (and he did)
AO - Murray drawn with Federer again

So it's 50/50 now? Obviously rigged.

tennis_pro
01-10-2013, 04:44 PM
So it's 50/50 now? Obviously rigged.

Except that when the draw DID matter (both majors) Federer was drawn with Murray.

Btw if all 3 played - Federer would be drawn with Murray in Canada.
If all 3 played - Federer would be drawn with Murray again in Paris. And Berdych in the quarters.

WTF - once again it doesn't matter as Federer still had to play Murray and Djokovic, later on though.

So out of 8 tournaments Federer was drawn (or would be drawn) with Murray in 5. Another one was the WTF where it didn't matter. The only tournaments where Fed got it easier was the Olympics (he still had to run into a red hot Del Potro...sigh...) and Cincinnati (the only time when he really got it easier).

Yea, luck favors him for sure.

OverratedIvanovic
01-10-2013, 04:46 PM
delete
10 chars

Towser83
01-10-2013, 05:00 PM
Lol gone is the fed/Novak conspiracy and to replace it is the fed/Murray one.

Fed/Murray conspiracy could gain some credibility soon... :lol:

Prisoner of Birth
01-10-2013, 08:48 PM
LOL exactly!

Try and use your head. If the draw should favor the top seed, make it 1vs4 & 2vs3 at all times. If that's not how it should work and the matches are always drawn, there should be randomness, where the tougher player doesn't always end up on Federer's side of the draw in Grand Slams.

Anyway, I'm not complaining. I don't think it's "rigged". I just think Federer has been unlucky more often than not. It's all fair.

sbengte
01-11-2013, 02:38 AM
Maybe this is payback for always getting Davydenko or equivalent as his QF opponent all those years back. :lol:

If you are referring to AO '10 where Fed drew Davy in the QF, remember that Davy was the red hot player coming from several big victories including the WTF (where he beat Fed, Nadal and Delpo ). Some people had even picked Davy to win the AO that year !

TTMR
01-11-2013, 12:50 PM
Except that when the draw DID matter (both majors) Federer was drawn with Murray.


Wow, Federer gets the harder semi GS matchup a whole two consecutive times. How could anyone not infer conspiracy?

Which top player had the easiest draw (going into the tournament) at Wimbledon? Oh, right, our arbitrarily convenient starting line starts after Wimbledon, the last Grand Slam Federer won.


Btw if all 3 played - Federer would be drawn with Murray in Canada.
If all 3 played - Federer would be drawn with Murray again in Paris. And Berdych in the quarters.

WTF - once again it doesn't matter as Federer still had to play Murray and Djokovic, later on though.

So out of 8 tournaments Federer was drawn (or would be drawn) with Murray in 5. Another one was the WTF where it didn't matter. The only tournaments where Fed got it easier was the Olympics (he still had to run into a red hot Del Potro...sigh...) and Cincinnati (the only time when he really got it easier).

Yea, luck favors him for sure.


Five out of eight, just wow. No further evidence needed.


(Surely Federer fans have better options to fall back on: he's 'old', the courts are too slow, family is taking up his time, he's no longer motivated)

Big_Dangerous
01-11-2013, 12:52 PM
If you are referring to AO '10 where Fed drew Davy in the QF, remember that Davy was the red hot player coming from several big victories including the WTF (where he beat Fed, Nadal and Delpo ). Some people had even picked Davy to win the AO that year !

He won the first set in that match and then Fed took that "bathroom break." After that, it was all Fed in that match.

"OMG!! Fed took a bathroom break after losing the first set, it must be a conspiracy!!"

BrooklynNY
01-11-2013, 01:20 PM
To all naysayers, one only research the 1996 USO draw and realize this is not even up for debate.

???????????

TMF
01-11-2013, 02:09 PM
Maybe this is payback for always getting Davydenko or equivalent as his QF opponent all those years back. :lol:

Davy owns Nadal on hard court. Anyone who's lucky it's Nadal who never met Davy at the USO and AO.

zagor
01-11-2013, 03:57 PM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcR8H39qSkwteXVAVgHLN6que284o6vnL Y6LnArMt4QIdj4qvpPyjA

It's an conspiracy.

I think Fed's draws are gonna get tougher and tougher as Tio Toni's influence grows, from now on expect to see Murray in his half in every slam and Berdych in his QF in every 2nd slam (as to not make it too obvious).

Toni can't afford to allow Fed to win another slam, Rafa will have a hard time breaking the slam record as it is.

zagor
01-11-2013, 03:59 PM
Davy owns Nadal on hard court. Anyone who's lucky it's Nadal who never met Davy at the USO and AO.

Damn straight, Kolja is Nadal's master on HC, 6-1 overall and 3-0 in finals.

Sid_Vicious
01-11-2013, 04:09 PM
Damn straight, Kolja is Nadal's master on HC, 6-1 overall and 3-0 in finals.

How can you be considered one of the greatest if you have been thoroughly destroyed by non-grandslam winning player and possible matchfixer on HCs?

zagor
01-11-2013, 04:28 PM
How can you be considered one of the greatest if you have been thoroughly destroyed by non-grandslam winning player and possible matchfixer on HCs?

You raise a very interesting point, I mean don't get me wrong, I do give a lot of credit to Nadal, he achieved a lot on HC by winning AO and USO but would he have won those HC slams if he had to face peak Davydenko? I think we all know the answer.

Here's a match between peak Kolja and peak Nadal on HC which best illustrates how big of a gap there is between them when both are playing their best tennis:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvaYDyVXAww

You almost get the sense that Kolja is toying (relatively speaking) with Nadal.