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View Full Version : Bookmakers say Djokovic is the favorite to win WTF


5555
10-19-2012, 02:58 AM
http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/mens-tour/atp-world-tour-finals/winner

Alchemy-Z
10-19-2012, 03:08 AM
He has been a threat in every tournament he's played this year.

RAFA2005RG
10-19-2012, 03:10 AM
So has Federer and Murray.

djokovic2008
10-19-2012, 03:27 AM
He's always favourite, in shanghai at the quarters stage he was 2.45 to win while fed and murray were 5.00 but don't too much notice as at US open he was the favourite big time and we know what happpened.

NatF
10-19-2012, 04:03 AM
He should be, unless Federer comes into it with his 2010-2011 form.

Steve0904
10-19-2012, 04:13 AM
Yeah, this is not a big deal. Doesn't mean he's going to win. Doesn't mean he's not going to win either though. I also don't get the deal with this form thing. Everybody overreacts to losses, especially ones by Federer. He always does great in Basel for obvious reasons, and he's still the best indoor HC player until proven otherwise.

Sentinel
10-19-2012, 04:47 AM
What are RAfa's odds (as per the bookies) ?

batz
10-19-2012, 04:56 AM
What are RAfa's odds (as per the bookies) ?

Last time I looked he was about 5/1 for the WTF. I you were to bet on him and he didn't play then you'd get your money back.

pc1
10-19-2012, 05:14 AM
Last time I looked he was about 5/1 for the WTF. I you were to bet on him and he didn't play then you'd get your money back.

What is Nadal's health status as of now? Does it look like he will play?

batz
10-19-2012, 05:21 AM
What is Nadal's health status as of now? Does it look like he will play?

Last I heard he said it would be difficult but not impossible for him to play. But the event starts in just over 2 weeks time and to my knowledge, he's still not hitting tennis balls - so I don't think he's very likely to play.

robbo1970
10-19-2012, 05:21 AM
He's about the most consistent at getting to semi's and finals along with Murray, so I would say its between those two.

But Djokovic is ranked higher than Murray so he should be favourite.

RAFA2005RG
10-19-2012, 05:24 AM
I wasn't impressed with Djokovic in Shanghai. I think Murray is now better than him on hardcourts. I know Murray lost that final, but 5 matchpoints, so not like there is any real difference between Murray and Djokovic. And I just get the impression Murray has more talent while Djokovic relies more on stamina which is probably not a reliable thing this late in the year.

Duncan Bell
10-19-2012, 05:33 AM
I wasn't impressed with Djokovic in Shanghai. I think Murray is now better than him on hardcourts. I know Murray lost that final, but 5 matchpoints, so not like there is any real difference between Murray and Djokovic. And I just get the impression Murray has more talent while Djokovic relies more on stamina which is probably not a reliable thing this late in the year.

I think I'd agree - I think 2013 could be a real shift in Murray's hard court dominance; starting in Australia.

5555
10-19-2012, 05:44 AM
I think Murray is now better than him on hardcourts.

If Murray is now better than him on hardcourts why is Djokovic the bookies' favorite to win AO?

TheF1Bob
10-19-2012, 05:45 AM
I wasn't impressed with Djokovic in Shanghai. I think Murray is now better than him on hardcourts. I know Murray lost that final, but 5 matchpoints, so not like there is any real difference between Murray and Djokovic. And I just get the impression Murray has more talent while Djokovic relies more on stamina which is probably not a reliable thing this late in the year.

Seems someone still but hurt from them Novak beatings in 2011.

Did you die a little after AO this year?

RAFA2005RG
10-19-2012, 05:46 AM
If Murray is now better than him on hardcourts why is Djokovic the bookies' favorite to win AO?

Because Djokovic is the defending champion (although he wasn't exactly convincing in 2012, winning 7-5 in the 5th set vs Murray and Nadal). A win is a win. You are the favorite until you lose. That is how simple bookies are. They don't have time to watch tennis.

RAFA2005RG
10-19-2012, 05:48 AM
Seems someone still but hurt from them Novak beatings in 2011.

Did you die a little after AO this year?

Actually, I wanted Djokovic to beat Nadal at the 2012 Australian Open final so it would put Djokovic in a position to win The Djokovic Slam, and it would allow Nadal to break Djokovic's heart at Roland Garros. That's the worst feeling. I know, because I had to watch Nadal tear that muscle at the 2011 Australian Open going for The Rafa Slam.

5555
10-19-2012, 05:50 AM
Because Djokovic is the defending champion (although he wasn't exactly convincing last year). A win is a win. You are the favorite until you lose. That is how simple bookies are. They don't have time to watch tennis.

Nadal was the defending champion at US Open 2011, but Djokovic was the bookies' favorite. Therefore, your argument fails.

RAFA2005RG
10-19-2012, 05:52 AM
Nadal was the defending champion at US Open 2011, but Djokovic was the bookies's favorite. Therefore, your argument fails.

It wasn't an argument, it was a factual observation. The bookies usually go with the defending champion. Not always, but nearly always.

5555
10-19-2012, 05:58 AM
It wasn't an argument, it was a factual observation.

It was an argument http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument

The bookies usually go with the defending champion. Not always, but nearly always.

Your argument is that Djokovic is the bookies' favorite to win AO because he is the defending champion. My counterargument is that Nadal was the defending champion of US Open 2011, but Djokovic was the bookies' favorite. Therefore, your argument fails.

TheF1Bob
10-19-2012, 06:00 AM
Actually, I wanted Djokovic to beat Nadal at the 2012 Australian Open final so it would put Djokovic in a position to win The Djokovic Slam, and it would allow Nadal to break Djokovic's heart at Roland Garros. That's the worst feeling. I know, because I had to watch Nadal tear that muscle at the 2011 Australian Open going for The Rafa Slam.

LOL I know Nole can beat Nadal on clay so no tears from me.

nethawkwenatchee
10-19-2012, 06:53 AM
The O2 (indoor hardcourt) hasn't been the best surface for Nole in the past. There are (obvious) other players who tend to like this surface. Not to say that he can't win on it under the right set of circumstances (he has had success when it was played at Shaghai, diferent all-together), it's a little hard to bet against Federer or Murray for me.

batz
10-19-2012, 07:11 AM
Because Djokovic is the defending champion (although he wasn't exactly convincing in 2012, winning 7-5 in the 5th set vs Murray and Nadal). A win is a win. You are the favorite until you lose. That is how simple bookies are. They don't have time to watch tennis.

I think you've amended this from your previous assertion that 'the bookies nearly always make the defending champion favourite'.

That assertion, and your sentence in bold above, is one of the daftest things I've ever seen posted on this board (and that's saying something). Bookmakers price risk. They have some of the most advance risk pricing systems, and some of the cleverest people, on the planet. The notion that they put little thought or time into their risk pricing of tennis is fecking mental. It's how they make money.

AmbiDexter
10-19-2012, 07:19 AM
Playing in front of his own crowd makes 3.75 on Muzza good value bet me thinks. If he'll make the final, theres always a chance to place a counter bet just to get the stake back

Gonzo_style
10-19-2012, 08:01 AM
Djokovic looks much fresher than last year, and in 2010 his number one goal after USO was probably Davis cup final. I think he's a slight favorite...Murray and Federer may play 3 consecutive weeks, it's a very important factor in WTFs.

Steve0904
10-19-2012, 08:07 AM
I think we'll have a better handle on this when the indoor season actually starts. Right now, I would say Djokovic is the favourite as well, but only very slightly.

kishnabe
10-19-2012, 08:50 AM
Actually, I wanted Djokovic to beat Nadal at the 2012 Australian Open final so it would put Djokovic in a position to win The Djokovic Slam, and it would allow Nadal to break Djokovic's heart at Roland Garros. That's the worst feeling. I know, because I had to watch Nadal tear that muscle at the 2011 Australian Open going for The Rafa Slam.

ROFL.....I was waiting for Djokovic to beat Nadal in 4 Slam Finals in a Row. Honestly Nadal didn't break Djokovic heart....since he had to cheat to win.
What a clown....stopping the match when Conditions don't suit him......but when it suits him and not the opponent, he does not complain.

I guess it okay thinking about it....since Nadal is never going to win RG again.

NadalAgassi
10-19-2012, 09:05 AM
Except for Roland Garros and maybe Wimbledon, Djokovic is the favorite to win any tournament he enters these days.

batz
10-19-2012, 11:07 AM
Murray is now 3rd favourite for RG with a best price of 9/1 :confused: was 20/1 just a couple of weeks ago.

NadalAgassi
10-19-2012, 12:25 PM
Murray is now 3rd favourite for RG with a best price of 9/1 :confused: was 20/1 just a couple of weeks ago.

My first inclination is to laugh, but then again I cant imagine Federer winning another RG title at his age, even is prime to prime he was a way better clay courter than Murray thus far. As long as the odds have Nadal way in the lead, Djokovic clearly in 2nd, and everyone else far behind, I cant say much about them either way.

kaku
10-19-2012, 02:02 PM
I'd say Fed, Murray, and Novak are all tied in terms of favorite for the O2. The only thing preventing Fed from being the favorite again is fatigue and age.

Interestingly, Novak is 5-5 at the O2 and Murray is 4-4, very close records

kishnabe
10-19-2012, 03:37 PM
Murray is now 3rd favourite for RG with a best price of 9/1 :confused: was 20/1 just a couple of weeks ago.

Stupid Bookies....Murray can win RG provided he doesn't face Nadal or Federer.

BauerAlmeida
10-19-2012, 03:41 PM
My first inclination is to laugh, but then again I cant imagine Federer winning another RG title at his age, even is prime to prime he was a way better clay courter than Murray thus far. As long as the odds have Nadal way in the lead, Djokovic clearly in 2nd, and everyone else far behind, I cant say much about them either way.

I think Del Potro or Ferrer have a lot more chances to win it than Murray.

Towser83
10-19-2012, 04:43 PM
Fed and Murray are better indoor player than Djokovic though, but if Djokovic is fully motivated he could overcome that.

NadalAgassi
10-19-2012, 05:14 PM
I think Del Potro or Ferrer have a lot more chances to win it than Murray.

Ferrer doesnt have the champions mentality to win a slam no matter what IMO. I agree Ferrer is a better clay courter than Murray, but I would still give Murray a better chance to WIN Roland Garros (no matter how small) than Ferrer who I cant envision winning any slam. Not only does he lack the big weapon(s) to do it, he lacks the mindset.

Del Potro? Not only is he not close to winning any slam again yet at this point, but with his major fitness issues since his comeback the last one he would win right now is RG.

Prisoner of Birth
10-19-2012, 05:16 PM
Ferrer doesnt have the champions mentality to win a slam no matter what IMO. I agree Ferrer is a better clay courter than Murray, but I would still give Murray a better chance to WIN Roland Garros (no matter how small) than Ferrer who I cant envision winning any slam. Not only does he lack the big weapon(s) to do it, he lacks the mindset.

Del Potro? Not only is he not close to winning any slam again yet at this point, but with his major fitness issues since his comeback the last one he would win right now is RG.

That would be the Australian.

NadalAgassi
10-19-2012, 05:20 PM
Fed and Murray are better indoor player than Djokovic though, but if Djokovic is fully motivated he could overcome that.

Djokovic owns Murray mentally in a big match even if their overall H2H is close. Even that U.S Open Djokovic nearly came back almost a sure winning position for Murray, I am still amazed Murray managed to pull out that 5th set somehow.

As for Federer I think apart from sometimes grass where as you know I dont think Djokovic is that good even after his Wimbledon title, hence why I picked Federer to beat Djokovic at Wimbledon in the semis this year, Djokovic can pretty much always beat Federer in a big match he wants to win at this phase of Federer's career. I dont think we will see a stunning upset like RG 2011 again. Although Federer's best chanceoutside Wimbledon would be the WTF, and it wouldnt be nearly as surprising as say RG or AO if he were to somehow beat Djokovic there.

Towser83
10-19-2012, 05:49 PM
Djokovic owns Murray mentally in a big match even if their overall H2H is close. Even that U.S Open Djokovic nearly came back almost a sure winning position for Murray, I am still amazed Murray managed to pull out that 5th set somehow.

As for Federer I think apart from sometimes grass where as you know I dont think Djokovic is that good even after his Wimbledon title, hence why I picked Federer to beat Djokovic at Wimbledon in the semis this year, Djokovic can pretty much always beat Federer in a big match he wants to win at this phase of Federer's career. I dont think we will see a stunning upset like RG 2011 again. Although Federer's best chanceoutside Wimbledon would be the WTF, and it wouldnt be nearly as surprising as say RG or AO if he were to somehow beat Djokovic there.

I agree Djokovic is a favourite in slams but WTF is best of 3 though, which gives Federer a pretty good chance over Djokovic considering the indoor setting. If Federer is playing well, I would pick Federer about 7 times out of 10 in indoor best of 3.

Murray also has a great chance in best of 3 and lets not forget as well as Djokovic did getting the US Open final to 5 sets, he lost it in the 5th set by quite some way going down by a double break. In contrast Djokovic had to save 5 match points in Shanghai. Murray is well capable of beating Novak best of 3 indoors, I would say given their meetings over the last year and the fact Djokovic has not repeated his 2011 form, it's about dead even between them right now.

There is also the fact Djokovic hasn't won an indoor title since Paris 2009.

Mainad
10-19-2012, 10:02 PM
Djokovic owns Murray mentally in a big match even if their overall H2H is close. Even that U.S Open Djokovic nearly came back almost a sure winning position for Murray, I am still amazed Murray managed to pull out that 5th set somehow.

I disagree. You cannot be said to 'own' anyone if the H2H is close. Murray cruised through the 5th set at the USO and was 5 times only 1 decent clutch serve away from winning Shanghai which is virtually unprecedented for him.

cc0509
10-20-2012, 12:09 AM
deleted.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

cc0509
10-20-2012, 12:17 AM
Djokovic owns Murray mentally in a big match even if their overall H2H is close. Even that U.S Open Djokovic nearly came back almost a sure winning position for Murray, I am still amazed Murray managed to pull out that 5th set somehow.

As for Federer I think apart from sometimes grass where as you know I dont think Djokovic is that good even after his Wimbledon title, hence why I picked Federer to beat Djokovic at Wimbledon in the semis this year, Djokovic can pretty much always beat Federer in a big match he wants to win at this phase of Federer's career. I dont think we will see a stunning upset like RG 2011 again. Although Federer's best chanceoutside Wimbledon would be the WTF, and it wouldnt be nearly as surprising as say RG or AO if he were to somehow beat Djokovic there.

Djokovic does not "own" Murray mentally at all imo. They have the closest rivalry of any of the top four. Also Murray won their last slam meeting at the USO and Murray won the OG, so Murray has won the last couple of bigger events (bigger than Shanghai.)

Also disagree with the statement that Djokovic can beat Federer these days whenever he wants. I guess Djokovic did not want to win Wimbledon this year huh? ;) Or how about Cincy? That is a silly statement. It is true that Federer has declined quite a bit but if Federer is on he is a tough match-up for Djokovic. Also remember that Federer is the best indoor player. You can never count Federer out there even an old declining one. Remember you counted Federer out at Wimbledon this year and said he had no chance. When you are the slam leader and have 17 slams, you are never counted out unless you are in a coma.

dr325i
10-20-2012, 03:28 AM
Actually, I wanted Djokovic to beat Nadal at the 2012 Australian Open final so it would put Djokovic in a position to win The Djokovic Slam, and it would allow Nadal to break Djokovic's heart at Roland Garros. That's the worst feeling. I know, because I had to watch Nadal tear that muscle at the 2011 Australian Open going for The Rafa Slam.

WOW...and you are 14?
Go back and finish your homework before I call your parents