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View Full Version : Nadal and his ranking predicament in 2013


Prisoner of Birth
10-29-2012, 10:58 PM
I think he's likely to retain his #4 ranking until after the Australian Open. The biggest problem will be the Claycourt season, where he's basically only defending points. Having won almost 0 points after that, he'll have to play extremely well to just stay where he is as far as ranking points are concerned. Even by his standards, 2012 was a great Claycourt season for 26 year-old Nadal. Can 27 year-old Nadal dominate just as much (I think the FO is still as much a lock as it can reasonably be, as it's over 5 sets. The Masters 1000 tournaments will be more challenging) so he can stay in the top 4? It could be catastrophic if he has to play Wimbledon seeded 5 or below.

Zildite
10-29-2012, 11:12 PM
There will be no blue clay next year so he can probably gain in Madrid.
Also he is supposed to play Acapulco so some extra points could come after the AO.

adil1972
10-29-2012, 11:13 PM
There will be no blue clay next year so he can probably gain in Madrid.
Also he is supposed to play Acapulco so some extra points could come after the AO.

who told you about change of clay from blue to red

Sabratha
10-29-2012, 11:14 PM
Nadal could be #5 by the end of the AO. A stint out of the top 10 is possible.

Prisoner of Birth
10-29-2012, 11:17 PM
There will be no blue clay next year so he can probably gain in Madrid.
Also he is supposed to play Acapulco so some extra points could come after the AO.

Oh yeah, forgot all about that one.

Sim
10-29-2012, 11:29 PM
who told you about change of clay from blue to red

I believe there was an article on the ATP website that said they banned blue clay.

joeri888
10-30-2012, 12:53 AM
Unless Nadal's injured or subpar in clayseason, he'll never drop out of top 4. He's likely to make at least 4000 points there alone.

The_Order
10-30-2012, 12:58 AM
Nadal could be #5 by the end of the AO. A stint out of the top 10 is possible.

That's funny. You should be a comedian.

sbengte
10-30-2012, 12:58 AM
I was waiting for a Murray2.0 - Nadal match but these two never met since Murray1.0 bagelled Nadal at Tokyo in 2011. Funny that it has been over a year and they avoided meeting each other though they were ranked such that they could meet in the semifinals. Now when Nadal returns next year, Murray will be #3 and Nadal #4, so they won't meet until the finals :neutral:

Nadal is lucky that he will avoid Murray in the slam semis for a while. Murray with a slam is a lot more dangerous in the semifinal that he ever was. He beat Nadal in slams multiple times even when he was slamless.

rofl_copter3
10-30-2012, 01:10 AM
Nadal could drop to number 5 but barring injury won't drop below that... the wild card is gonna end up being Del Porto if he is truly getting into form he has the ability to be ranked in the top 4 regardless of how others play. If Nadal or Federer end up out of the top 4 then tournaments could really get some interesting matchups

RAFA2005RG
10-30-2012, 01:20 AM
I think he's likely to retain his #4 ranking until after the Australian Open. The biggest problem will be the Claycourt season, where he's basically only defending points. Having won almost 0 points after that, he'll have to play extremely well to just stay where he is as far as ranking points are concerned. Even by his standards, 2012 was a great Claycourt season for 26 year-old Nadal. Can 27 year-old Nadal dominate just as much (I think the FO is still as much a lock as it can reasonably be, as it's over 5 sets. The Masters 1000 tournaments will be more challenging) so he can stay in the top 4? It could be catastrophic if he has to play Wimbledon seeded 5 or below.

The only priority is Rio. Ranking is for suckers.

Prisoner of Birth
10-30-2012, 02:43 PM
The only priority is Rio. Ranking is for suckers.

Then is why is Nadal trying to come back so soon? Rio isn't till 4 years later. And sounds like a stupid thing to do, to play Roland Garros and Wimbledon, risking injury, if Olympics are your only priority.

Gonzo_style
10-30-2012, 03:01 PM
If Nadal is healthy, he will fight for the #1 with Djokovic, and if not then he will finish the season on #3 or #4 place, behind Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro.

Mortifier
10-30-2012, 03:08 PM
If Nadal is healthy, he will fight for the #1 with Djokovic, and if not then he will finish the season on #3 or #4 place, behind Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro.

Federer has dropped out of the top 100 by then or?

Gonzo_style
10-30-2012, 03:11 PM
Federer has dropped out of the top 100 by then or?

I don't know but this thread is not about Federer.

NadalAgassi
10-30-2012, 03:15 PM
I wouldnt be worried about him being seeded outside the top 4 at Wimbledon if he is fit and in form. Djokovic isnt a great grass player and unless he rediscovers his career best 2011 form an in form Nadal should have relatively little problem with him there, he has owned Murray on grass and at Wimbledon, and he was matching Federer on the surface as far back as 07/08, so in form and fit should be able to beat an aging Federer today there without much problem. In the event he is not in form and fit he doesnt have much hope and might not even reach the quarters anyway so who cares.

The only event I would be worried about his seeding being lower is the U.S Open, but by then it is more likely his ranking will be up anyway.

Mortifier
10-30-2012, 03:16 PM
I don't know but this thread is not about Federer.

Sure it is in some manner, it's about rankings. You put three other names in there beside Nadal.

You clearly implied that Federer wasn't in the top 4 - and the guy has been there for ages. So I was just asking - is not in the contention anymore or what?

NadalAgassi
10-30-2012, 03:21 PM
Sure it is in some manner, it's about rankings. You put three other names in there beside Nadal.

You clearly implied that Federer wasn't in the top 4 - and the guy has been there for ages. So I was just asking - is not in the contention anymore or what?

Federer and/or Nadal have to drop out of the top 5 at some point. It could be next year that one or even both do at a various time, especialy with Nadal starting the year with no points the last 5 months of 2012, and Federer turning 32. Then again someone alot better than Ferrer has to emerge for that to happen. Could it be Del Potro or Raonic? Del Potro seems to have problems staying fit a whole season, and consistency beating the top players. Raonic still has alot of work to do.

Prisoner of Birth
10-30-2012, 03:22 PM
I wouldnt be worried about him being seeded outside the top 4 at Wimbledon if he is fit and in form. Djokovic isnt a great grass player and unless he rediscovers his career best 2011 form an in form Nadal should have relatively little problem with him there, he has owned Murray on grass and at Wimbledon, and he was matching Federer on the surface as far back as 07/08, so in form and fit should be able to beat an aging Federer today there without much problem. In the event he is not in form and fit he doesnt have much hope and might not even reach the quarters anyway so who cares.

The only event I would be worried about his seeding being lower is the U.S Open, but by then it is more likely his ranking will be up anyway.

Murray is possibly the best Grasscourter right now. I'd hate to face him at W13.

Mortifier
10-30-2012, 03:27 PM
Federer and/or Nadal have to drop out of the top 5 at some point. It could be next year that one or even both do at a various time, especialy with Nadal starting the year with no points the last 5 months of 2012, and Federer turning 32. Then again someone alot better than Ferrer has to emerge for that to happen. Could it be Del Potro or Raonic? Del Potro seems to have problems staying fit a whole season, and consistency beating the top players. Raonic still has alot of work to do.

Very true my friend, but as it looks and has been looking for a while now, there aren't very many up and comers on the circuit ready to compete with the big 4. DelPo would be one, but he plays about 6 months every year so I would not count on him.

I still believe Federer can outfox 90% of the tour and pretty much blow anyone of the court if he gets hot during one week. I'd be very surprised if he were to go out early in tourneys, giving his ranking and seeding and all.

I was just wondering what Gonzo-style was going. No hard feelings.

NadalAgassi
10-30-2012, 03:27 PM
Murray is possibly the best Grasscourter right now. I'd hate to face him at W13.

Nobody knows for sure what would happen, but as a Nadal fan I would still feel quite confident until Murray actually beats him on Wimbledon or on grass, or atleast takes him to 5 sets. He hasnt done either yet. There is nobody I am particuarly worried about Nadal playing on grass today if he is in form, I think it could be his 2nd easiest slam to potentially win after the French Open. The only worry I have for him is how poor he looked on grass in his one appearance this year, not really about any particular opponent though.

smoledman
10-30-2012, 03:27 PM
Fed to win CYGS.

Gonzo_style
10-30-2012, 03:30 PM
Sure it is in some manner, it's about rankings. You put three other names in there beside Nadal.

You clearly implied that Federer wasn't in the top 4 - and the guy has been there for ages. So I was just asking - is not in the contention anymore or what?

OK, Federer would probably be #5.

kishnabe
10-30-2012, 04:07 PM
I think next year could either go his way or go in a downward spiral.

Like come back winning slams and ending above a Ranking of 4 or lose early in slams and upset on clay. May end in the bottom of the top 10 and even lower.

For tennis sake....he should come back as the number 3 player behind Novak and Federer.

kishnabe
10-30-2012, 04:09 PM
Nobody knows for sure what would happen, but as a Nadal fan I would still feel quite confident until Murray actually beats him on Wimbledon or on grass, or atleast takes him to 5 sets. He hasnt done either yet. There is nobody I am particuarly worried about Nadal playing on grass today if he is in form, I think it could be his 2nd easiest slam to potentially win after the French Open. The only worry I have for him is how poor he looked on grass in his one appearance this year, not really about any particular opponent though.

I agree with this. Murray has proven himself against Nadal on grass for taking 2 sets out of 3 encounters. Though he isn't a better grass courter than Nadal and Federer. Way better than Novak for sure.

Towser83
10-30-2012, 04:14 PM
there's such a gap between the top 4 and the rest of the players, that I dodn't see nadal dropping out of the top 4 unless Delpo goes into beast mode. Nadal has missed half the year and is still comfortably top 4, that says a lot.

He'd have to have very poor results at the AO and RG to drop to 5, and after RG he can only gain points

Towser83
10-30-2012, 04:14 PM
I agree with this. Murray has proven himself against Nadal on grass for taking 2 sets out of 3 encounters. Though he isn't a better grass courter than Nadal and Federer. Way better than Novak for sure.

hasn't he only taken one set in 3 encounters?

Gonzo_style
10-30-2012, 04:16 PM
I agree with this. Murray has proven himself against Nadal on grass for taking 2 sets out of 3 encounters. Though he isn't a better grass courter than Nadal and Federer. Way better than Novak for sure.

Not yet, but there are chances for that

MichaelNadal
10-30-2012, 05:16 PM
Lol at all this Delpo mention again. Sigh, they never learn.

Hitman
10-30-2012, 05:20 PM
Nadal did not fall out of the top four depsite not playing since late June. He ain't going anywhere, and at the moment neither are the other members of the elite four.

Sure they can swap between themselves, but when it comes to the rankings...

These four are the judge, jury and executioners. No one stands a chance!

Prisoner of Birth
10-30-2012, 05:26 PM
Nadal did not fall out of the top four depsite not playing since late June. He ain't going anywhere, and at the moment neither are the other members of the elite four.

Sure they can swap between themselves, but when it comes to the rankings...

These four are the judge, jury and executioners. No one stands a chance!

Nadal, by the end of 2013, will definitely be in the top 4. But by Wimbledon, not so sure.

MichaelNadal
10-30-2012, 05:27 PM
Nadal did not fall out of the top four depsite not playing since late June. He ain't going anywhere, and at the moment neither are the other members of the elite four.

Sure they can swap between themselves, but when it comes to the rankings...

These four are the judge, jury and executioners. No one stands a chance!

Couldn't agree more. When Rafa comes back it's going to be because he feels fit to play. Fit Rafa= leagues ahead of anyone outside the top 4.

cc0509
10-30-2012, 07:30 PM
Nadal could be #5 by the end of the AO. A stint out of the top 10 is possible.

Not going to happen. Are you for real?

cc0509
10-30-2012, 07:35 PM
Nadal did not fall out of the top four depsite not playing since late June. He ain't going anywhere, and at the moment neither are the other members of the elite four.

Sure they can swap between themselves, but when it comes to the rankings...

These four are the judge, jury and executioners. No one stands a chance!


I agree. Unless there is some young player who is going to make his splash, the current players ranked 5-10 are not going to surpass Nadal's ranking unless Nadal comes down with the Bubonic Plague or something.

cc0509
10-30-2012, 07:39 PM
Couldn't agree more. When Rafa comes back it's going to be because he feels fit to play. Fit Rafa= leagues ahead of anyone outside the top 4.

Yep. People have short memories on here. As if those jokers ranked 5-10 are going to surpass even a sub-par Nadal. The only way I can see it happening is if a younger gun comes out of nowhere. That is possible. I also think off clay Nadal will likely have more trouble with the other top three now and may stay at #3 or 4 but will Del Po, Berdych, etc. surpass Nadal in the rankings? I can't see it. They are just not as talented as even a sub-par Nadal.

Clarky21
10-30-2012, 08:02 PM
Yep. People have short memories on here. As if those jokers ranked 5-10 are going to surpass even a sub-par Nadal. The only way I can see it happening is if a younger gun comes out of nowhere. That is possible. I also think off clay Nadal will likely have more trouble with the other top three now and may stay at #3 or 4 but will Del Po, Berdych, etc. surpass Nadal in the rankings? I can't see it. They are just not as talented as even a sub-par Nadal.



I think they are just as talented when it comes to technical skills,if not more so than Nadal. I think it's mental strength that separates them more than talent.

3fees
10-30-2012, 08:09 PM
predicament ? Nadal Strategy for 2013 is too make a come back to get No 1. If he plays hardcourt and grass to semi's and wins claycourts as he usually does, he has a strong chance,,ATP points drop off one year later as many have mentioned here, he is bottomed out at 4th ready to pop wheelies on Murray on his way up the ladder again,,lol
He needs to increase his efforts on grass court season ~ 1 month long.

:)

Towser83
10-30-2012, 08:17 PM
I think they are just as talented when it comes to technical skills,if not more so than Nadal. I think it's mental strength that separates them more than talent.

Yep I think mental toughness and dedication is a bigger factor in the seperation between good and great players than talent. Not saying talent isn't important, but someone like Ferrer is not hugely talented, is 5'9 and isn't always amazing in mental toughness but he can be fairly solid sometimes and his alround tenacity makes him a higher ranked player than a lot of talented guys like Tsonga. If Ferrer was 6'1 had Nadal/Djokovic mentality he could possibly win slams.

But also nadal is not given enough credit for talent. People act like he has none. He learnt to play left handed and I kind of feel his own difficulties in his mental quirks probably held him back from doing more with his game. He seems to sometimes not trust himself to play differently and maybe concentrated so much on being a clay courter early on that he never gave him self as much of a chance to develope his allcourt skills to their maximum. Yet he still won all the slams. That's not just hard work there.

Prisoner of Birth
10-30-2012, 08:19 PM
predicament ? Nadal Strategy for 2013 is too make a come back to get No 1. If he plays hardcourt and grass to semi's and wins claycourts as he usually does, he has a strong chance,,ATP points drop off one year later as many have mentioned here, he is bottomed out at 4th ready to pop wheelies on Murray on his way up the ladder again,,lol
He needs to increase his efforts on grass court season ~ 1 month long.

:)

I'm only talking about his ranking before Wimbledon next year. He'll gain quickly after that. Until then, he's racing against himself having started a 1KM race 20 seconds late.

cc0509
10-30-2012, 08:20 PM
I think they are just as talented when it comes to technical skills,if not more so than Nadal. I think it's mental strength that separates them more than talent.

Mental strength for sure but I think it is a combination of both, mental strength and producing your best tennis consistently. Nadal can pretty much produce consistently in the big stage matches (except the Rosol match, lol) but guys like Tsonga and Berdych just don't produce great tennis consistently and do what they have to do.

Clarky21
10-30-2012, 09:04 PM
Yep I think mental toughness and dedication is a bigger factor in the seperation between good and great players than talent. Not saying talent isn't important, but someone like Ferrer is not hugely talented, is 5'9 and isn't always amazing in mental toughness but he can be fairly solid sometimes and his alround tenacity makes him a higher ranked player than a lot of talented guys like Tsonga. If Ferrer was 6'1 had Nadal/Djokovic mentality he could possibly win slams.

But also nadal is not given enough credit for talent. People act like he has none. He learnt to play left handed and I kind of feel his own difficulties in his mental quirks probably held him back from doing more with his game. He seems to sometimes not trust himself to play differently and maybe concentrated so much on being a clay courter early on that he never gave him self as much of a chance to develope his allcourt skills to their maximum. Yet he still won all the slams. That's not just hard work there.


I think he is given the credit he deserves. Imo,Nadal is a talented athlete,but is marginally talented as a tennis player. In no way does he possess Fed,Murray,or ******* level techinical ability or talent. He's just athletically gifted.

cc0509
10-30-2012, 09:19 PM
I think he is given the credit he deserves. Imo,Nadal is a talented athlete,but is marginally talented as a tennis player. In no way does he possess Fed,Murray,or ******* level techinical ability or talent. He's just athletically gifted.

I don't think that is true Clarky. I think Nadal is just as gifted technically as Djokovic and Murray are. Federer is in a whole other league with his shotmaking choices. Djokovic, Murray and Nadal do not compare to Federer when it comes to shotmaking ability. I am not talking about the current Federer but the prime Federer. In terms of athletic ability Nadal is for sure at the top of the list(or at least he was at his peak) but Djokovic and Murray are close.

NadalAgassi
10-30-2012, 09:23 PM
Nadal is hard to compare in the technical sense as he hits a very unorthodox ball in general It isnt as clean and smooth as the others so the tendency to think is that he isnt as talented a ball striker, but it is extremely effective, especialy his groundstrokes, so that is probably a mistake.

Mustard
10-30-2012, 09:35 PM
I think he's likely to retain his #4 ranking until after the Australian Open. The biggest problem will be the Claycourt season, where he's basically only defending points. Having won almost 0 points after that, he'll have to play extremely well to just stay where he is as far as ranking points are concerned. Even by his standards, 2012 was a great Claycourt season for 26 year-old Nadal. Can 27 year-old Nadal dominate just as much (I think the FO is still as much a lock as it can reasonably be, as it's over 5 sets. The Masters 1000 tournaments will be more challenging) so he can stay in the top 4? It could be catastrophic if he has to play Wimbledon seeded 5 or below.

Might be tougher in 2013 for Rafa. It all depends on where he's at next April-June from a mental and physical perspective. His 2012 clay-court season was pretty phenomenal, a vast improvement on his 2011 clay-court form, and not just because Djokovic had beaten him twice on clay in 2011. His overall clay form was just far superior to last year. In 2012, Nadal won Monte Carlo without dropping a set, won Barcelona without dropping a set, won Rome without dropping a set, reached the French Open final without dropping a set, and then beat Djokovic in 4 sets in the French Open final, which was his only dropped set on orange clay for the year. The only real downside to his clay season was on that blue ice rink in Madrid, with that awful loss to Verdasco from 5-2 up in the third set.

Prisoner of Birth
10-30-2012, 09:50 PM
Might be tougher in 2013 for Rafa. It all depends on where he's at next April-June from a mental and physical perspective. His 2012 clay-court season was pretty phenomenal, a vast improvement on his 2011 clay-court form, and not just because Djokovic had beaten him twice on clay in 2011. His overall clay form was just far superior to last year. In 2012, Nadal won Monte Carlo without dropping a set, won Barcelona without dropping a set, won Rome without dropping a set, reached the French Open final without dropping a set, and then beat Djokovic in 4 sets in the French Open final, which was his only dropped set on orange clay for the year. The only real downside to his clay season was on that blue ice rink in Madrid, with that awful loss to Verdasco from 5-2 up in the third set.

I'm still shocked at that Nadal loss.

Mustard
10-30-2012, 09:59 PM
I'm still shocked at that Nadal loss.

Yeah, it was shocking.

cork_screw
10-31-2012, 01:22 PM
It's pretty remarkable that nadal can skip; cincy, rogers cup, uso, shanghai, bnp paribas, wtf and STILL be ranked #4 in the world. That's how good he is. I think by next year, he'll have a much easier year in terms of just gaining points seeing as how he didn't play in any tournaments besides clay and early masters. By the end of next year, if he's healthy, I see him maybe #2 if not #1 if djokovic or murray have a bad year.

I do think he's going to outperform peoples' expectations, especially since he's had almost 6 months to heal his knee.

Now, let's talk about the Lakers and how they actually got worse this year with dwight howard. I blame the princeton offense. I think it's not allowing Dwight Howard to post up enough or Steve Nash to dribble drive / slash to the hole / or pick and roll the way he wants.