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VictorS.
12-19-2005, 08:54 PM
I personally do not bet on sports. However I have a good friend who is largely into sports betting, mostly basketball and baseball. Being a fan of many different sports, I would have to say that tennis is much easier to predict in comparison to other sports. Obviously upsets do occur in sports such as tennis. However there seems to be a number of factors that make tennis a bit more predictable...such as court surface, the schedule, and the fact that tennis is an individual sport.

Obviously the court surface plays a major role. Nadal could be playing just about anyone in the world, and if it's on clay....it's almost impossible seeing him lose. Same with Federer at Wimbledon on grass (or just about any other surface). Secondly, players are constantly playing tournaments throughout the year, so it's quite easy to see when a player is hot (ie Blake and Ginepri during the US Open series last yr). Nobody probably would've predicted those two going so far at the US Open, however.....their results leading up to the tournament definitely indicated such a trend. Lastly, unlike team sports I think tennis is a bit more predictable. For example, in basketball Michael Jordan could have a heck of a game however if Scottie Pippen or Horace Grant didn't step up and play well....his team could STILL lose. On the other hand, in tennis if Federer's playing well.....he's almost certainly winning.

andfor
12-19-2005, 09:03 PM
http://www.sportspunter.com/betting?function=tournamentodds&team=Ljubicic+I&competitionid=40&tournament=Australian+Open

If I was to bet this would be my pick. I like the odds. Fed's to easy to pick and if he does win 65 cents on the dollar isn't my idea of excitement. BTW I do not advocate betting online.

goober
12-19-2005, 09:09 PM
I do not bet on tennis but, I think that most betting is done for who will win the entire tournament with odds for each player. For example Federer is 1 to 2 odds to win the 2006 AUS Open on some betting sites so it would not be worth it to bet on him. I am not sure how they bet individual matches since if somebody top 10 was playing a qualifier there would have to be some kind of line for number of games won since the odds would be too heavily in favor of the top 10 player.

jhhachamp
12-19-2005, 11:49 PM
Victor I disagree that tennis is easier to bet on than other sports. Generally the odds given are going to be pretty accurate in any sport regardless of how complicated the sport is or how many players play on a team.

I think it would probably be easier for YOU to bet on tennis because you probably follow it more closely, but I fail to see that this would be a general trend for many people.

Rob_C
12-20-2005, 01:20 AM
I live in Vegas and I've seen the line on certain tennis matches. Here, they pretty much only put up the Slams, none of the other tournaments. When it comes to Federer, its not really worth it betting on him because he's such a huge favorite. I believe the odds for the Fed-Agassi US Open final was something like -900 for Fed, meaning you would have to bet $9 to win 1.

The last decent odds I saw on Fed was the -04 US Open semi against Henman when it was only -140 or something like that. I didnt get to the sportsbook in time to lock that one up though. Had to work till 5:00.

pound cat
12-20-2005, 03:12 AM
The year Goran won Wimbledon, the odds of him winning were 250/1. A few people (Goran, who no doubt bet a bundle on himself) made a lot of money. Given his past Wimbledon record, assuming that he would be dealing with his shoulder injury with massive amounts of pain-killers, & knowing his will to win this tournament, betting on him was not as far-fetched as the initial odds would indicate. And some punters just play the long shots & know or care nothing about the sport they're betting on.

djones
12-20-2005, 03:55 AM
I believe the odds for the Fed-Agassi US Open final was something like -900 for Fed, meaning you would have to bet $9 to win 1.



Hey please don't remind me of that painfull loss to Federer!!!!!!!
It still bothers me!

Kevin Patrick
12-20-2005, 09:24 AM
Tennis used to be a lot harder to predict. The 90s were a time of many more upsets & longshots winning slams(or at least making the semis, etc)

Federer being the most dominant player in 20 years certainly makes tennis easier to predict. And Roddick, Hewitt are far more consistent than many top players of a few years ago. The French Open seems like the one slam where upsets happen frequently.

Except for the NFL(any given sunday seems more true now than ever), I think all the major sports are fairly easy to predict. Look at the odds for the NBA championship, I can't imagine anyone beating the Pistons or Spurs.
Baseball is a great sport to bet on, just look at starting pitchers stats.

I know this guy who's a pretty big gambler. He's a casual tennis fan & still made some pretty good money on Blake/Ginepri at the US Open just by doing a little research.

Fed was only -140 against Henman, Rob C? That's hard to believe.

Tundra
12-20-2005, 10:07 PM
Hey please don't remind me of that painfull loss to Federer!!!!!!!
It still bothers me!

lol, me too. grrrrrrrrrr he should have WON that match....

croatian sensation
12-21-2005, 02:07 AM
I bet only once...on Coria on clay...this year in Umag...from the beginning I put money on him and in every round just transfered it to the next bet. It was quite play-it-safe but I bet that he would win with more than 5 games difference..that made it more interesting (and I was lucky when he beat JCF 6:1 6:2)
I think betting on tennis isn't so fun but if you do it this way-bet on games difference then it gets better and surely makes watching more interesting...I was Coria's biggest fan in Umag...cheering for every point ;-)

Rob_C
12-21-2005, 02:21 AM
Fed was only -140 against Henman, Rob C? That's hard to believe.

I know. I couldnt believe it when I walked into the sports book. But, that was before Fed was Fed. Plus, Henman had beaten him earlier in the year at Rotterdam, I believe, and had a winning record against him at the time. Plus, he lost 3rd rd at the French that year. I definitely would have locked it up if I had gotten there in time, or knew the line was that low. But, they only post football, basketball, & baseball lines online. Everything else you have to walk in to check.