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View Full Version : Federer's Reign Ends in T-Minus ? Weeks


stoffer
01-31-2006, 08:08 AM
Federer is obviously dominating the tour and has held the number 1 spot for 100+ weeks straight, but there will be a time when he will lose the number 1 ranking. So who do you think will be able to overtake him and when?

Moose Malloy
01-31-2006, 08:15 AM
He won't get to Lendl's 157 weeks. I think the tour will turn into the pre-Federer era in a few years(lots of parity, Johannson type players winning majors)
There won't be a dominant #1, just several players trading #1 throughout the year(with Fed prob. being one of them)

Sampras held #1 from summer of '93 to spring of '95. When he was dethroned by Agassi it was a big deal. When Federer loses #1, it won't be as dramatic, he probably will lose it due to a reduced schedule & someone taking advantage.

raftermania
01-31-2006, 08:42 AM
Nobody and http://www.reconnections.net/infinity1.gif weeks.

random1
01-31-2006, 09:50 AM
He won't get to Lendl's 157 weeks.
Roger's at 105. He'd have to have a surprsingly bad Wimby or USO to lose it before year-end. Barring injury, I think he makes it as #1 until next year's AO. Then a mediocre AO, combined with a mediocre clay court season this year could drop him from #1. That said, I'd put money that he bread Connors' 160 week record.

norcal
01-31-2006, 09:55 AM
Keep in mind Nadal has a boatload of points to defend and Roger has a huge lead on him. Barring injury he easily gets 160. Who's gonna catch him?

Shabazza
01-31-2006, 09:58 AM
Roger's at 105. He'd have to have a surprsingly bad Wimby or USO to lose it before year-end. Barring injury, I think he makes it as #1 until next year's AO. Then a mediocre AO, combined with a mediocre clay court season this year could drop him from #1. That said, I'd put money that he bread Connors' 160 week record.
Agreed!
Nadal can't gain much points during the clay season, I think Roger's 1st rank is safe at least till Wimbledon - and despite Cincy and the USO Roger didn't played much afterwards either - not many possibilities for Nadal to overcome Roger this year! If Fed isn't injured for most of the year, he'll remain at the top till YE!

Moose Malloy
01-31-2006, 10:02 AM
When Sampras won '94 Wimbledon, he had the largest lead over #2 in ATP history. Then an ankle injury knocked him out for the summer & out of the US Open early.
Agassi won the Open, went on a tear & got to #1 in March '95. In July '94 no one would have thought that anyone could take over #1 from Sampras over the next year. I think Agassi wasn't even top 20 in July '94. You never know.

tenalyser
01-31-2006, 10:06 AM
He won't get to Lendl's 157 weeks. I think the tour will turn into the pre-Federer era in a few years(lots of parity, Johannson type players winning majors)
There won't be a dominant #1, just several players trading #1 throughout the year(with Fed prob. being one of them)

Sampras held #1 from summer of '93 to spring of '95. When he was dethroned by Agassi it was a big deal. When Federer loses #1, it won't be as dramatic, he probably will lose it due to a reduced schedule & someone taking advantage.

He wont ge to, or you don't want him to surpass the 157? weeks :wink:

random1
01-31-2006, 10:13 AM
When Sampras won '94 Wimbledon, he had the largest lead over #2 in ATP history. Then an ankle injury knocked him out for the summer & out of the US Open early.
Agassi won the Open, went on a tear & got to #1 in March '95. In July '94 no one would have thought that anyone could take over #1 from Sampras over the next year. I think Agassi wasn't even top 20 in July '94. You never know.
That's why I put in the "barring injury" caveat. Fed's ankle, Agassi's ankle, Nadal's foot.... It can easily happen, but aside from injury/illness, I don't see it happening this year. Even if Fed wins no more slams, someone else would need to win two, plus pick up a slew of points elsewhere. Nadal could do it with a French and USO double(I'd be shocked if he won USO), plus doing better than Fed in next year's AO. Maybe...
It won't be Roddick, Hewitt or Agassi. Nalby or Ljubicic would need to do something similar to what I described for Nadal above. Again, they're both capable of some great tennis, but neither has shown that they're ready for the high level consistency to be #1.
Now that I think about it, Nalby probably has the best chance of the bunch...

8PAQ
01-31-2006, 10:39 AM
If Fed feels his #1 spot is in danger he will play the carpet season. Last two years he missed 3 tournaments (Madrid, Basel, Paris) worth up to 250 race points because he was injured. This year or next he can always play them and collect some extra points to stay #1.

Also last year he didn't play many of the summer hard court tournaments worth around 200 points. Again if someone is about to overtake him, Fed has plenty of extra points he can get to stay #1.

jukka1970
01-31-2006, 12:57 PM
Federer is obviously dominating the tour and has held the number 1 spot for 100+ weeks straight, but there will be a time when he will lose the number 1 ranking. So who do you think will be able to overtake him and when?

I don't think it's impossible for someone to overtake him, but I think it's fairly unlikely. True Federer could get an injury forcing him to miss tournaments for points, but that's assuming that the others in the top 5 stay injury free and do well. Given that Feder has won the Australian open, Nadal wasn't even there, and Roddick (rnd 4) and Hewitt (rnd 2) exited early, I don't see Federer losing number 1 this year.

John

counterpunch
01-31-2006, 02:44 PM
to make a random guess i will say 234 weeks overall

arosen
01-31-2006, 03:50 PM
By the end of this year, he will double his current points advantage over the # 2.

TheModernEra
07-14-2008, 05:37 PM
to make a random guess i will say 234 weeks overall

Dude, you were close to genius.

Let the FedHaters finally have there turn and their fun on this forum. They have been waiting for years.

We have been lucky to see Federer's game the past 4 years. If/when Nadal overtakes Federer's reign at #1, it will have required monumental effort and an extreme game. Congrats to Federer, and congrats to Nadal for relentless persuit of perfection.

veroniquem
07-14-2008, 06:20 PM
If Fed feels his #1 spot is in danger he will play the carpet season. Last two years he missed 3 tournaments (Madrid, Basel, Paris) worth up to 250 race points because he was injured. This year or next he can always play them and collect some extra points to stay #1.

Also last year he didn't play many of the summer hard court tournaments worth around 200 points. Again if someone is about to overtake him, Fed has plenty of extra points he can get to stay #1.
I thought Fed never got injured? :shock: