View Full Version : Whose draw is harder en route to RG finals? Nadal's or Federer's?

05-26-2006, 01:15 PM
I know speculations and excitement are up in the air. Who may be Federer's biggest obstacles en route to the finals? Robredo or Gaudio? Maybe Davydenko or Acasuso? Can someone say Nalbandian? Who can possibly take Nadal to the edge? Almagro?
Please state your opinons and tell us your side of view.

05-26-2006, 01:21 PM
In Fed's draw to the final you have:

Kiefer-not a clay courter. Even though he usually gives Fed a tough match, if they play here he wont, it will be a smackdown.

Clement-solid veteran playing some decent ball this year, but not a clay courter either.

Berdych-having a dissapointing year overall, not building on promise of last year.

Gaudio-good clay courter but a pusher-type player, Fed never loses to these type of players anymore.

Robredo-read above, also not mentaly tough enough to beat top players in big matches.

Nalbandian-not really a clay courter, showing in Roma makes it even more unlikely he will be in semis of French, since he isnt good enough on clay to keep repeating that type of showing.

Davydenko-despite semis last year, I really think he is a better hard court/carpet player then clay. Would be surprised to see him go that far again.

Moya-could go far perhaps, but if he plays Fed he is no real threat to him at all. Would have better chance vs Nadal then Fed since he seems to play up for Nadal.

Ferrero-after signs of resurgence last year has gone backwards again. I now think he will never be a real top player again, or beat a player like Federer in a slam ever again, even on clay.


Nadal atleast has:

Blake-plays very well vs Nadal, and would even be a threat to him on a match on clay. I still think Nadal would win for sure, but still more of a worry to Nadal then anybody in Fed's half. Showed he can play well on clay in Hamburg, if he somehow beats Almagro he could be in quarters.

Almagro-young and fearless, and unlike somebody like Berdych, clay is his best surface. Might be a worry to Nadal as well, more then anybody in Fed's half. Nadal can only play one of Blake or Almagro though, good news for him.

Mathieu-could play an inspired match in front of French crowds, clay courter as well.

Safin or Gonzalez-the winner of this match could be a big danger for Nadal.

So I think Nadal has the tougher draw, but I still think he is a lock to win the French Open even with his tougher draw. He is just too great on the clay.

05-26-2006, 01:29 PM
Lol at that post fed.

Blake, mathieu, safin and gonzo? Almagro is pretty good, but very untested in big events. Where did you get mathieu from? Is that side really that weak where he is a contender? Since when is blake a good clay court player?

Its like comparing guys who "have" won against guys who "could" win.

05-26-2006, 01:31 PM
This is pretty even, I think.

Federer's got tough players but more of usual suspects.

Nadal's part of draw has more of some wild cards and some unpredictable
players. I agree with federerhoogenbandfan on that one.

But I think Gaudio's can be dangerous in federer's draw.
Gaudio tanks lots of matches but he's kind of wild card.
He's 0-5 against Federer but he is FO champion after all
and should not be neglected....

05-26-2006, 01:41 PM
Yeah Federer faces the usual line-up so to speak. If Robredo steps up mentally, he could be dangerous to Fed. Nadal has relatively a tough draw with more spi***** that breathe, eat and sleep claycourt tennis. Almagro might be able beat Nadal.

05-26-2006, 02:02 PM
How about this - it doesnt matter! Do you really think Federer or Nadal will lose to anyone?

I know not everyone had the opportunity to watch Rome and monte Carlo, but I did. Federer and Nadal crushed nearly everybody. And the close matches with Federer (vs Nalbandian and Almagro) were simply because Fed was not playing well. Don't forget RG is 5 sets the whole way so even if Federer plays poorly he can lose 2 sets and still be ok. The field is weak (or these guys are too good, however you want to see it). Any upset of either of these guys would be the biggest suprise of the year. And don't forget Fed and Nadal had NO trouble meeting each other in Paris last year.

05-26-2006, 02:06 PM
Didnt robredo just win a clay court masters series? You have champions at the top, and potential at the bottom (+nadal).

Max G.
05-26-2006, 02:11 PM
Well, here's my thoughts...


First round - a lucky loser. Might be a random unexpected dangerous spaniard, but not really a threat by any standards.
Second round - either Justin Gimelstob or a qualifier. Same deal - easy match unless he gets a surprisingly tough qualifier.

Third round - Mirnyi, Muller, Massu, or Malisse. Man, all Ms... anyway, any one of them could be "dangerous", but of them only Massu's an actual claycourter, and he's really not up anywhere near Federer's level. He's playing okay this year, he had some good tournaments, but was beaten early in all the TMS events. This round shouldn't pose any problems for Fed.

4th round . Potential opponents include Berdych or Kiefer - or whoever beats them - but there isn't any respectable claycourter in that section of the draw, and also nobody that's having a good year so far. Anyone that gets to the 4th round in that section will be glad to have gotten that far and won't pose a threat to Fed.

Quarterfinal - this is where it starts to get interesting... he's seeded to meet Robredo, and the other potential seed to get through to that qf is Ancic. The only other player who might make a splash there is Acasuso. So, Fed has to face either Acasuso or Robredo, with a slight chance of Ancic... Any one of them can give Federer a potentially good match, but can only win if Federer drops his game enough to let them. A good match, maybe a test for Fed, but only if one of those guys plays lights-out and Fed doesn't.

Semifinal. This section of the draw is brutal - so many of the good claycourters seem to be lumped here, but they'll all play each other before they get to Fed. Gaudio, Nalbandian, Moya, and Davydenko are all here, as well as Gasquet who I don't think is ready yet to make a semi but IS ready to knock someone out early before succumbing. I don't know who'll make it out of this, but whoever it is will give Federer a VERY good match in the semis.

Finals - not much to say there, a final's a final.


1st round - Robin Soderling. He's got some talent, but isn't really a claycourter and should pose no trouble to Nadal.

2nd round - one of two qualifiers. Not a challenge, IMO.

3rd round - Paul-Henri Mathieu or a nobody. Could be dangerous, but I don't think so.

4th round - Hrbaty, Hewitt, or whoever beats them. (Them losing isn't at all unlikely - Hewitt is horribly out of form, and Hrbaty hasn't won two matches in a row since the Australian Open. But then again, who's going to step up to beat Hrbaty? Karlovic or Olivier Patience?) Should be an easy match for Nadal.

Quarterfinal - this could get interesting. Of the players Nadal could face in the quarterfinal, the ones that I think actually have a chance of getting that far are Blake, Almagro, Murray (if he REALLY lifts his game), Monfils, Gonzalez, Safin, and Haas (IF he's healthy). Whoever it is, it'll be a very tough QF for Nadal, in my opinion.

Semifinal - this semifinal slot is totally wide-open, since IMO neither Ljubicic nor Roddick, the two top seeds in that section, are going to hold seed. I have no clue who's going to make it out of this section, and it might be some random player that just has a hot week - it's a pretty easy semifinal for Nadal, unless the random hot player plays out of his mind.

Final - well, a final's a final.

...so, to summarize - IMO Federer has slightly tougher early rounds (1-4) but that's more because of him being more vulnerable on clay than Nadal. The Quarterfinal is going to be tougher for Nadal, but if they get through that then Federer is going to face a much tougher semi.

05-26-2006, 02:13 PM
On paper id say fed has hardest route going through ferrero moya and gaudio all goo clay courters, also likes of top ten players davydenko and nalbandian, fed will have a tough route to the final!

05-26-2006, 03:33 PM
Definitely Federer.

05-26-2006, 03:34 PM
Definitely Federer.

no, nadal...

05-26-2006, 04:10 PM
I vote option c) how many threads do we need on this ?!

p.s. the correct answer is Fed :D

05-26-2006, 05:49 PM
Ok thx for all of your opinions. By far, the majority says Federer's draw can be more dangerous. Some say it doesn't matter coz they won't lose to anyone until they meet each other. Well whatever happens, I support Federer hoping that he can claim this year's trophy and shed his joyous tears for the cameras.

05-26-2006, 08:10 PM
Federer has by far the harder draw!

05-26-2006, 08:26 PM
Federer, IMO, had the toughest part :)

05-27-2006, 04:44 PM
Federer's is tougher, but so what?

It's still a disaster for him if he doesn't get to at least the semis. A trip to the finals is gravy. A win is brilliant, legendary, and catastrophic for Nadal.

It's a disaster for Nadal if he does anything but repeat, but you'd be a pretty big knucklehead to put much coin on anybody else. A win and he is in nice company with a fistful of 2x FO winners, and has a nice start to a legendary one-surface career.