PDA

View Full Version : Race to #1 - Federer/Nadal


HollerOne5
07-13-2006, 12:06 PM
Ok, obviously, everyone here is convinced that Federer will be number one until hell freezes over, however, I was bored, and have done some researching (feel free to correct this if necessary).

Roger Federer has held the #1 ranking for 128 consecutive weeks now.

The record for consecutive weeks at #1 is 160, Jimmy Connors.

In exactly 8 months, Federer COULD pass this mark. This would be around mid-March 2007. So I took the liberty of calculating the points as of now, what needs to be defended, and what could be earned by either Federer and Nadal by then.....the stats don't lie, judge for yourself, and then vote.....

This is under the assumption that the record would be broken after Indian Wells 2007.

Points Federer has to defend by then, including Indian Wells 2006 = 4135

Points Nadal has to defend by then, including Indian Wells 2006 = 1780

Most important of all, Nadal has a total of 75 to defend from US Open and Australian, while Federer has 2,000 to defend at these.

Right now, their current ranking points are 7290 and 5125 respectively.

Well, what do you guys think?

ACE of Hearts
07-13-2006, 12:08 PM
What are the chances that Nadal gets another micky mouse draw?I am sure they are 2-1.I think he will go far in the U.S Open.

The tennis guy
07-13-2006, 12:37 PM
If Nadal wins both US Open this year and Aussie Open next year, then he'll get to No. 1. The chance is small. Otherwise, he won't.

8PAQ
07-13-2006, 12:38 PM
As I mentioned before if Nadal can take over #1 before March 2007 then he can beat Hewitt's record for youngest #1 ever. I think Nadal can win 2007 AO in which case it is very likely that he will take the #1 spot couple of weeks earlier than Hewitt.

I am sure Fed and Nadal are aware of all this and they will be playing quite a lot of tournaments at the end of this year. Especially Federer will. Just so that he can remain #1 even if he does not win 2007 AO. If Fed stays healthy and if Nadal gains a lot of points at USO I am certain that Federer will play both Paris and Madrid just to get as many points he can.

BaselDazzle
07-13-2006, 12:41 PM
As I mentioned before if Nadal can take over #1 before March 2007 then he can beat Hewitt's record for youngest #1 ever. I think Nadal can win 2007 AO in which case it is very likely that he will take the #1 spot couple of weeks earlier than Hewitt.

I am sure Fed and Nadal are aware of all this and they will be playing quite a lot of tournaments at the end of this year. Especially Federer will. Just so that he can remain #1 even if he does not win 2007 AO. If Fed stays healthy and if Nadal gains a lot of points at USO I am certain that Federer will play both Paris and Madrid just to get as many points he can.

Both of them can pick up a number of points towards the end of the year - remember Fed missed those tournaments last year due to injury.

The tennis guy
07-13-2006, 12:43 PM
As I mentioned before if Nadal can take over #1 before March 2007 then he can beat Hewitt's record for youngest #1 ever. I think Nadal can win 2007 AO in which case it is very likely that he will take the #1 spot couple of weeks earlier than Hewitt.


Why would Nadal be No. 1 if he just wins Australia Open? Both of them would be 2 slam title holders. However, Federer did much better in Master events than Nadal this year. You can look at this way, even if you get rid of Federer's win at Aussie this year out of his points this year, he is still ahead of Nadal in race points.

The tennis guy
07-13-2006, 12:44 PM
Both of them can pick up a number of points towards the end of the year - remember Fed missed those tournaments last year due to injury.

You have to like Federer's chance a lot better on indoor courts.

8PAQ
07-13-2006, 12:53 PM
What are the chances that Nadal gets another micky mouse draw?I am sure they are 2-1.I think he will go far in the U.S Open.

If Nadal gets a USO draw of the kind he did at Wimbledon this year then I think I will change into "barry" and start coming up with conspiracy theories! Especially if Fed has to play Pim Pim in the 1st round or something ridiculous like that. Oh if Nadal gets to play Guga people better not be telling me that that's a tough opponent. Oh and Fererro is also an extremely easy opponent for Nadal even thou he reached USO final. So is Gaudio and Ferrer and Coria and pretty much any Spanish speaking player other than Moya or Nalbandian.

Gasquet, Safin, Djokovic, Monfils, Roddick, Hewitt, Ljubicic, Ancic, Berdych are examples of tough draw for Nadal at USO. Agassi or Henman or any claycourter are examples of an easy draw.

8PAQ
07-13-2006, 12:56 PM
Why would Nadal be No. 1 if he just wins Australia Open? Both of them would be 2 slam title holders. However, Federer did much better in Master events than Nadal this year. You can look at this way, even if you get rid of Federer's win at Aussie this year out of his points this year, he is still ahead of Nadal in race points.

I meant he has good chance to be #1 after 2007 AO if he does really well the rest of this year. Because even if he beats Fed this year every time time meet Fed will still be #1 at the end of this year. However if Nadal keeps doing that and then wins 2007 AO then I think he will finally be #1.

The tennis guy
07-13-2006, 01:20 PM
I meant he has good chance to be #1 after 2007 AO if he does really well the rest of this year. Because even if he beats Fed this year every time time meet Fed will still be #1 at the end of this year. However if Nadal keeps doing that and then wins 2007 AO then I think he will finally be #1.

So you think Nadal is going to beat Federer every time they meet the rest of year?

MsPiggy
07-13-2006, 01:36 PM
If Nadal gets a USO draw of the kind he did at Wimbledon this year then I think I will change into "barry" and start coming up with conspiracy theories! Especially if Fed has to play Pim Pim in the 1st round or something ridiculous like that. Oh if Nadal gets to play Guga people better not be telling me that that's a tough opponent. Oh and Fererro is also an extremely easy opponent for Nadal even thou he reached USO final. So is Gaudio and Ferrer and Coria and pretty much any Spanish speaking player other than Moya or Nalbandian.

Gasquet, Safin, Djokovic, Monfils, Roddick, Hewitt, Ljubicic, Ancic, Berdych are examples of tough draw for Nadal at USO. Agassi or Henman or any claycourter are examples of an easy draw.


Don't forget James Blake.

Marat Safinator
07-13-2006, 01:43 PM
If nadal overtakes federer by indian wells, I will become gay.

HollerOne5
07-13-2006, 01:51 PM
If nadal overtakes federer by indian wells, I will become gay.

I would say if Nadal keeps up his impressive offensive form, you should get used to liking guys.

8PAQ
07-13-2006, 02:10 PM
So you think Nadal is going to beat Federer every time they meet the rest of year?

No actually I think Fed will beat him every time they meet. Grass played like fast hard court this year so Fed now knows what to do.

8PAQ
07-13-2006, 02:12 PM
Don't forget James Blake.

Thx :) Totally forgot him. BagDaddy is also a threat. He won't beat Nadal but should be able to push him. Kinda like Hewitt vs Federer.

GRANITECHIEF
07-13-2006, 02:15 PM
If nadal overtakes federer by indian wells, I will become gay.

Does that mean that you are melancholy right now. Buck up!!!

Shabazza
07-13-2006, 02:17 PM
USO, TMC and AO are the key points for him, if he won't reach the final in both GS and make a good run at the TMC he won't overtake Federer, as he and Fed have pretty much the same amount of points to defend at the other tourneys till Indian Wells!

Simon Cowell
07-13-2006, 03:18 PM
It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.

jaykay
07-13-2006, 04:47 PM
It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.

You still around, Simon? I thought you had fled these boards after Wimby, no? Simply unbelievable!

shawn1122
07-13-2006, 04:47 PM
It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.
It's nice to see you can still focus on the positive...

superman1
07-13-2006, 04:53 PM
Federer has to defend a ton of points, but let's remember who this is. At the very least he will get to all of the finals and lose to Nadal. But you've got to figure that he passed a big hurdle by beating Nadal in Wimbledon and there's no way Nadal is going to be completely dominating him on fast courts. You've also got to figure that there are a couple of damn good players out there on fast courts who could give Nadal some serious problems.

So yes, I think Fed is going to break the record and stay #1 for a very long time.

zorg
07-13-2006, 05:07 PM
Doesn't Sampras have the record for most weeks at number 1?

BabolatFan
07-13-2006, 05:14 PM
There's a huge likelihood Federer will break the record. Nadal will have a tougher time on hardcourt. There's a bunch of players that can beat him including Blake, Hewitt, etc.,

Bassus
07-13-2006, 05:19 PM
It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.


I'll take it you're joking, seeing as how its very unlikely that most who follow tennis would say Nadal is the best right now. And in saying a player played terrible, you always have to balance that against what the opponent did; i.e. how much of it was Nadal's own play and how much of it was Federer imposing himself. The same goes for Federer's seemingly lame effort in the French Open final.


But anyway, with regards to the race for #1, Nadal certainly has big opportunities to pick up points at the US Open and the Aus, while Federer can only defend points at both. However, if he's healthy this year, Federer will have good opportunities at Madrid and Paris to gain points.

It should be very interesting. Hopefully both will stay healthy.

zorg
07-13-2006, 06:27 PM
Why does everyone keep thinking the record is Connors's? It is Sampras, at 286 weeks. Unless I am mistaking, can someone clarify this?

Soundbyte
07-13-2006, 06:35 PM
There is no way Nadal will pass Fed. The reason is this: in the tournaments where Nadal is winning, Fed is right there in the final. The difference is Fed is winning Slams and other tourneys where Nadal is knocked out early.

splink779
07-13-2006, 06:44 PM
Why does everyone keep thinking the record is Connors's? It is Sampras, at 286 weeks. Unless I am mistaking, can someone clarify this?

Sampras ended 6 years in a row at #1 (I think) but in between others had #1 for short periods such as Agassi, Moya, etc.

I assume that Federer will remain #1 for quite a while longer. However though, as good as he is, there is always the risk of an early crash at one of the next two majors. That would seriously hurt his point count.

zorg
07-13-2006, 06:55 PM
Yes but wikipedia says that Sampras had 286 weeks at number1. Also I remember a commercial Sampras was in that said the same.

The tennis guy
07-13-2006, 06:58 PM
Yes but wikipedia says that Sampras had 286 weeks at number1. Also I remember a commercial Sampras was in that said the same.

Everyone is talking about at #1 consecutive weeks. Connors holds that record.

zorg
07-13-2006, 07:00 PM
Meh, I guess I thought it was consecutive but wasn't.

stoffer
07-13-2006, 07:03 PM
Sure Fed has lots of points to defend but he can also add a ton more if he feels Nadal is getting too close. Remember he didnt play TMS Canada, TMS Paris or TMS Madrid.

dh003i
07-13-2006, 07:12 PM
zorg,

Wiki's wrong then. Although a very good source, it occasionally has errors (anyone can edit Wiki: so imagine all of the fanatics tinkering with it).

Simon,

So, are you going to take back everything you said about Federer losing, and how Nadal was certainly definately going to beat Federer at the Wimbledon?

I watched the match. Nadal played poorly? No. Federer played brilliantly in the 1st set, and maybe that made Nadal more nervous as well. In the second set, Federer's level came down, and Nadal played some of his best tennis of the tournament, but Federer still won in the tie-breaker. Sorry, no excuses. The 3rd set, Nadal was ahead, but Federer caught up, and then Nadal played some really great grass-court tennis to take the tie-break. However, in the 4th set, Federer again played pretty brilliantly -- it wasn't as close as it looked, Federer was up 5-1 at one point. Nadal, to his credit, fought to take 2 games, but Federer served out for 6-3 and the match.

Here's the reality of the Wimbledon: Nadal did play some great grass-court tennis. However, Nadal's best grasscourt tennis -- and that was the best he was playing in the tournament -- was only enough to beat Federer in 1 of 2 tiebreaks. Federer's best grass-court tennis produced 6-0 in the 1st and 6-3 in the 3rd. Like I said, even Nadal basically has to hope that Federer is off to have a chance to beat him on grass.

And as for how competitive the match was, the Australlian Open was also very competitive, and actually even tougher for Federer in a way, as he lost the first set, which made the rest of the match tougher (no breathing room). Against Nadal, he won the 1st two sets, and Nadal only won a set when he absolutely needed to to stay alive. Andy Roddick also took a set off of Federer at Wimbledon -- so what?

Sure, it was impressive for Nadal to take a set off of Federer -- no-one else could do it, not even Ancic. Hardly makes a difference, though.

Tennis_Goodness
07-13-2006, 07:43 PM
This is the SECOND year where Federer is still clearly number 1 in the world since Nadal emerged!

The second year which he has dominated the field and is many points ahead of the number 2 (Nadal).

I think this scenerio is going to play out for years to come, Nadal and Federer will be competitive with eachother, but Federer is too good that Nadal won't be able to catch up to him!

splink779
07-13-2006, 07:59 PM
This is the SECOND year where Federer is still clearly number 1 in the world since Nadal emerged!

The second year which he has dominated the field and is many points ahead of the number 2 (Nadal).

I think this scenerio is going to play out for years to come, Nadal and Federer will be competitive with eachother, but Federer is too good that Nadal won't be able to catch up to him!

I think that it will happen like this for the next year give or take, but once things even out a bit and they both play a full season, it will get close.

Shabazza
07-14-2006, 01:53 AM
I think that it will happen like this for the next year give or take, but once things even out a bit and they both play a full season, it will get close.
Ditto!

donnyz89
07-14-2006, 03:57 AM
We gotta see Roger and Nadal on the hardcourts before we make any judgements. Because we know Nadal is improving like mad, is Roger still the king on hardcourts? if they are dead even, then I'm scared for Roger. They had a 5 setter at indian wells before, has nadal surpassed Roger on hard as well? I'm still rootn for Roger because his game is so much more fun to watch than Nadal's hardhitting bashing game.

Marat Safinator
07-14-2006, 04:31 AM
Sure Fed has lots of points to defend but he can also add a ton more if he feels Nadal is getting too close. Remember he didnt play TMS Canada, TMS Paris or TMS Madrid.

Dont remind me....:( THIS IS MARATS YEAR FOR PARIS. 2000,2002,2004...2006... if he loses in paris, this is definately the downfall of safin.

Punisha
07-14-2006, 04:33 AM
I have to agree. nadals game to me is a bit boring :(

If only we could get andy roddick serve volleying, i would love to watch him actually make a touch volley. I think he made 1 out of whole of wimbledon!

Rhino
07-14-2006, 04:48 AM
It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.
You knew this wasn't true and yet you typed it anyway.
Simon why do you bother.
You have lost all credibility on this forum (not that you had much to lose).
You are extremely predictable and can't cope with the fact that Federer is the number one tennis player in the world by a huge margin of a couple of thousand ranking points. He demolished your boy Rafa in the final of the biggest tournament in the world (bagelling him!!! - even one-shot-wonder Roddick sidestepped that humiliation).
Rafa will never face a wild card and two qualifiers on his way through to a Wimbledon final ever again, so make the most of it.
I've got two words for you Simon: 'James' and 'Blake'.
PS: your failure to update your signatureshows that you cannot take the truth!
http://www.smily.at/smily/smily1179.gif

slack hack
07-14-2006, 04:53 AM
We gotta see Roger and Nadal on the hardcourts before we make any judgements. Because we know Nadal is improving like mad, is Roger still the king on hardcourts? if they are dead even, then I'm scared for Roger. They had a 5 setter at indian wells before, has nadal surpassed Roger on hard as well? I'm still rootn for Roger because his game is so much more fun to watch than Nadal's hardhitting bashing game.

In the Dubai tourney earlier this year, Nadal won their match-up on what Federer called "a fast hardcourt".

8PAQ
07-14-2006, 05:37 AM
You knew this wasn't true and yet you typed it anyway.
Simon why do you bother.
You have lost all credibility on this forum (not that you had much to lose).
You are extremely predictable and can't cope with the fact that Federer is the number one tennis player in the world by a huge margin of a couple of thousand ranking points. He demolished your boy Rafa in the final of the biggest tournament in the world (bagelling him!!! - even one-shot-wonder Roddick sidestepped that humiliation).
Rafa will never face a wild card and two qualifiers on his way through to a Wimbledon final ever again, so make the most of it.
I've got two words for you Simon: 'James' and 'Blake'.
PS: your failure to update your signatureshows that you cannot take the truth!
http://www.smily.at/smily/smily1179.gif

Great post :)

splink779
07-14-2006, 05:50 AM
Dont remind me....:( THIS IS MARATS YEAR FOR PARIS. 2000,2002,2004...2006... if he loses in paris, this is definately the downfall of safin.

I didn't notice that pattern - forget Nadal and Federer, I'll be rooting for Marat here as well!

ksbh
07-14-2006, 06:28 AM
ROFLMAO! Simon, get a life! He's a long way behind in the points. It'll take quite a bit to get to No. 1, not 'just a matter of time'.

As regards Wimbledon, I think Nadal will get better. For someone with less than 20 matches on grass, he played brilliantly.

I voted 'Nadal will reach #1, but only after record has been broken'.

It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.

ckthegreek
07-14-2006, 06:54 AM
On current evidence, Nadal will beat Federer on any surface except Grass. Ceteris paribus Nadal goes No.1 pronto and stays there.

The tennis guy
07-14-2006, 08:15 AM
On current evidence, Nadal will beat Federer on any surface except Grass. Ceteris paribus Nadal goes No.1 pronto and stays there.

What evidence do you have? They never played on super fast court like US Open, never played on indoor hard or carpet.

clayman2000
07-14-2006, 09:00 AM
ya i agree...however nadal CAN beat fed on grass--he couldve went up two sets to one---however fed is more consistent (all tourneys played reached finals)

Tchocky
07-14-2006, 09:04 AM
Wouldn't Nadal have to win the U.S. Open and the Australian Open to surpass Roger? No way, Jose! Vamos, Roger!

TennezSport
07-14-2006, 12:39 PM
I heard through friends at the National Tennis Center that they plan to make the surface even faster this year to help Roddick and Blake. So... it's really going to be very tough on the grinders.

TS :cool:

8PAQ
07-14-2006, 12:40 PM
I heard through friends at the National Tennis Center that they plan to make the surface even faster this year to help Roddick and Blake. So... it's really going to be very tough on the grinders.

TS :cool:

Awesome!

HollerOne5
07-14-2006, 12:55 PM
I heard through friends at the National Tennis Center that they plan to make the surface even faster this year to help Roddick and Blake. So... it's really going to be very tough on the grinders.

TS :cool:


Not true....all US Open series tournaments this year are supposed to be the exact same speed and type of court, as there were complaints last year in the variations of the surfaces.

woody88
07-14-2006, 02:35 PM
hi guys, new to this board, most of the time, I just go to the classifieds and try to find a good racquet, anyone here selling a used fed's stick? Anyway, I'd love to talk about Nadal and Federer. Fed to me is still head and shoulder above everyone else. Like previous poster said, Nadal is improving a lot, if you put them on a fast court, I think the advantage will still go to Fed by far. If you really think like the old indoor fast courts, like the ATP masters in Frankfurt, or the Grandslam cup (Compaq) after the masters, they are ultra fast, and I just don't think that Nadal can be as effective. I think Nadal will be real good, especially at the Aussie Open, but at other faster courts, he will have a lot more problem again Fed. And Fed is pretty close to Nadal on clay, maybe 80%. Not there yet, but he may get there soon.

TennezSport
07-14-2006, 02:44 PM
Not true....all US Open series tournaments this year are supposed to be the exact same speed and type of court, as there were complaints last year in the variations of the surfaces.


And....."Supposed" is the key word in that statement. I was told they will be reducing the amount of sand in the top coat, everything else will be EXACTLY the same. But then again, we know it will be fast.

TS :cool:

siber222000
07-14-2006, 04:12 PM
As I mentioned before if Nadal can take over #1 before March 2007 then he can beat Hewitt's record for youngest #1 ever. I think Nadal can win 2007 AO in which case it is very likely that he will take the #1 spot couple of weeks earlier than Hewitt.

I am sure Fed and Nadal are aware of all this and they will be playing quite a lot of tournaments at the end of this year. Especially Federer will. Just so that he can remain #1 even if he does not win 2007 AO. If Fed stays healthy and if Nadal gains a lot of points at USO I am certain that Federer will play both Paris and Madrid just to get as many points he can.
march 2007? dont make me laugh please

fastdunn
07-14-2006, 04:31 PM
He is apparently not into racing for #1 and more into winning slams.
He is skipping 2nd clay season. Very wise move.
He is either very mature at his age or people around him(world class
athelete family) are guiding his career very wisely, IMHO....

cuddles26
07-14-2006, 04:43 PM
He is apparently not into racing for #1 and more into winning slams.
He is skipping 2nd clay season. Very wise move.
He is either very mature at his age or people around him(world class
athelete family) are guiding his career very wisely, IMHO....

I suspect it is the latter. With his playing style he will be retired at 25 anyway but if he kept a dumb schedule like he was he would be retired at 22 instead. So the people around him told him to play less so he can atleast be playing to his mid 20s which is a good idea.

Superhuman
07-14-2006, 08:13 PM
Hopefully Rafael Nadal. I can't stand that ridiculous fawning over squished face Federer.

FEDEXP
07-14-2006, 08:44 PM
well Superhuman, I guess Federer is your kryptonite.

Dilettante
07-14-2006, 09:29 PM
I think we are witnessing a great moment in tennis history.

If we leave apart from the discussion the usual Nadalettes-Federettes' catfight, and we concentrate on what's happening in tennis, we'll realize that Federer and Nadal are making up their own plot in history.

I was never bored seeing Federer winning all the time because I just can't get bored being Federer play. As I've said in another threads, I think we're witnessing the prime of a freak of nature.

But it is refreshing that, when it seemed that noona remained to give Federer a thrill, then appeared Nadal. Another freak of nature but in a different way.

It's a new and different version of the serve&volleyer versus the baseliner. Of course Fed and Nadal are both baseliners, but their games are opposite in almost everything else. Opposite enough to make their matchup hard to predict.

Federer is the fast-court machine that can ALSO win on clay... and this year he would won everything on clay if it was not for Nadal, the Ultimate Claycourter maybe since Borg. And Nadal is showing signs of an uncanny capability of learning and improving, that's what the rivalry needs.

I mean, those two players are fit for the drama. The Artist versus The Gladiator. Look at their last matches: Federer takes the first set by storm, playing an insane level of tennis. Then, Nadal fights back where maybe no other player would capable of recovery himself and concentrate, and changes the story of the match.

They are friends, OK, but they're playing a deep psychological game through time: I realized this when Nadal reached Wimbledon final. I mean, imagine that Nadal won that: last year, no one could have imagined the mere possibility of a psychological shock like that. That's good for the sport: almost no one seems capable of survive a Federer's rolling first set. He's just too good. Last year he was starting to look like an alien (well, he still looks like an alien!). And then you've got that kid from Mallorca that plays Federer with the same determination and self-belief as if he was playing the #100. He faces Federer and ALWAYS think that he can win.

This rivalry it's not only a matter of numbers: by numbers, Federer is the best overall, and Nadal has the match-up edge. It's not only a matter of game styles: Federer's game is technically more complete and beautiful, but both players are way too different to be compared and Nadal has some other uncanny capabilities that will be object of study.

This rivalry is a mater of drama: I know every tennis espectator was into the drama at the final Wimbledon. Not the drama of the match itself, but the drama of a battle-through-time. When Nadal started to raise his game in the second set. I'm sure that EVERY single person who was watching the match, thought for a second that "ooops...maybe Nadal could do it again".

That single second of doubt is something that we didn't have at the beggining of the last year. Gasquet, Safin, they beat Federer. But that's normal, even the greatest lose to someone from time to time.

Now, we have a rivalry. We have the Beauty and the Beast, the Dancer and the Boxer, call it as you want. For sure Federer will be prevailing in most Slams, but now there's a thrill, now we have the Hitchcock-alike possibility of Nadal appearing on a final. And we know Nadal will play to win, nothing less. On the final, we'll never be 100% sure of what will happen. Federer is good enough to beat Nadal on a consistent basis, BUT Nadal is good enough to beat Federer on a consistent basis.

I think this is great for tennis. A #1 needs a TRUE #2 to make his reign more "real". And a player like Nadal needs a Federer to show his true talents and get a remarkable spot in history.

Federer could dominate even more if Nadal doesn't exist, and Nadal could be the #1 by now if Federer doesn't exist. But I think that, in terms of tennis history, both careers will be embellished by the other one's presence. They already are.

psamp14
07-14-2006, 09:35 PM
for nadal to achieve the #1 ranking, he would have to win at cincinnati, the us open, probably two or three tournaments after the open, the masters cup, the australian open, and perhaps another tournament...its somewhat realistic, in ways that he could get to at least the semis and finals of the grand slams, but its very difficult because federer will go just as far, if not win, so not likely nadal will stop federer from breaking the record for consecutive weeks at the #1 spot

TennezSport
07-16-2006, 12:47 PM
I think we are witnessing a great moment in tennis history.

If we leave apart from the discussion the usual Nadalettes-Federettes' catfight, and we concentrate on what's happening in tennis, we'll realize that Federer and Nadal are making up their own plot in history.

I was never bored seeing Federer winning all the time because I just can't get bored being Federer play. As I've said in another threads, I think we're witnessing the prime of a freak of nature.

But it is refreshing that, when it seemed that noona remained to give Federer a thrill, then appeared Nadal. Another freak of nature but in a different way.

It's a new and different version of the serve&volleyer versus the baseliner. Of course Fed and Nadal are both baseliners, but their games are opposite in almost everything else. Opposite enough to make their matchup hard to predict.

Federer is the fast-court machine that can ALSO win on clay... and this year he would won everything on clay if it was not for Nadal, the Ultimate Claycourter maybe since Borg. And Nadal is showing signs of an uncanny capability of learning and improving, that's what the rivalry needs.

I mean, those two players are fit for the drama. The Artist versus The Gladiator. Look at their last matches: Federer takes the first set by storm, playing an insane level of tennis. Then, Nadal fights back where maybe no other player would capable of recovery himself and concentrate, and changes the story of the match.

They are friends, OK, but they're playing a deep psychological game through time: I realized this when Nadal reached Wimbledon final. I mean, imagine that Nadal won that: last year, no one could have imagined the mere possibility of a psychological shock like that. That's good for the sport: almost no one seems capable of survive a Federer's rolling first set. He's just too good. Last year he was starting to look like an alien (well, he still looks like an alien!). And then you've got that kid from Mallorca that plays Federer with the same determination and self-belief as if he was playing the #100. He faces Federer and ALWAYS think that he can win.

This rivalry it's not only a matter of numbers: by numbers, Federer is the best overall, and Nadal has the match-up edge. It's not only a matter of game styles: Federer's game is technically more complete and beautiful, but both players are way too different to be compared and Nadal has some other uncanny capabilities that will be object of study.

This rivalry is a mater of drama: I know every tennis espectator was into the drama at the final Wimbledon. Not the drama of the match itself, but the drama of a battle-through-time. When Nadal started to raise his game in the second set. I'm sure that EVERY single person who was watching the match, thought for a second that "ooops...maybe Nadal could do it again".

That single second of doubt is something that we didn't have at the beggining of the last year. Gasquet, Safin, they beat Federer. But that's normal, even the greatest lose to someone from time to time.

Now, we have a rivalry. We have the Beauty and the Beast, the Dancer and the Boxer, call it as you want. For sure Federer will be prevailing in most Slams, but now there's a thrill, now we have the Hitchcock-alike possibility of Nadal appearing on a final. And we know Nadal will play to win, nothing less. On the final, we'll never be 100% sure of what will happen. Federer is good enough to beat Nadal on a consistent basis, BUT Nadal is good enough to beat Federer on a consistent basis.

I think this is great for tennis. A #1 needs a TRUE #2 to make his reign more "real". And a player like Nadal needs a Federer to show his true talents and get a remarkable spot in history.

Federer could dominate even more if Nadal doesn't exist, and Nadal could be the #1 by now if Federer doesn't exist. But I think that, in terms of tennis history, both careers will be embellished by the other one's presence. They already are.

GREAT POST, nothing else need be said!

TS :cool:

Polvorin
07-16-2006, 02:33 PM
GREAT POST, nothing else need be said!

TS :cool:

I second that. :)

Shabazza
07-16-2006, 02:40 PM
Dilettante: Word!! I really hope it turns out this way!

NamRanger
07-16-2006, 02:51 PM
The only other GS other then the French that Nadal has the ability to beat Federer at is possibly the Australian Open, and even then I hear they are toning down the bounciness of the courts (lots of complaints).



Federer has the U.S. Open and Wimbledon on lock at least for the next year (unless Nadal proves to me he can actually HARDCOURT defense, not claycourt running behind the baseline 30 feet). Nadal has trouble beating people with big weapons that are enhanced by surfaces (example : Kendrick with his serve, Blake with his forehand, etc). The only points he has to worry about are the Aussie and Indian Wells.



Nadal will not get to the Wimbledon final next year, I garuntee it. He had too easy of a ride to the final, and ALOT of people were complaining about it. Nadal did not even play that good at Wimbledon. The only reason why he got a set was because Federer had a hiccup (twice actually). If he faces a big server at Wimbledon, he WILL lose (Myrini, Lubicic, Roddick, Safin, etc).



The only person that even has a miniscule chance of beating Federer at the U.S. Open or Wimbledon is the God Version of Safin. That only happens once every 3-4 years too.

fastdunn
07-16-2006, 03:39 PM
It's true that Nadal probably has lots of things to improve
on hard courts. He needs weapons to beat other players than
Federer. However, I think Nadal matches-up nicely with
Federer's game on hard courts. It's just that Nadal is not
strong enough on hard courts in general (not enough to
beat other players convincingly).

Nadal was almost non-grass court player. But I think he
is pretty good grass court player now.

It's amazing how this rivarly improves both players imensely.

psamp14
07-16-2006, 03:44 PM
with the way nadal suddenly improved on grass and has shown his normal hardcourt improvements over the past year, wouldnt it be so phenomenal to see him really improve on the fast hardcourts, and even see federer...*gasp*...get even better?

arosen
07-16-2006, 06:02 PM
I have looked into the crystal ball to see what kind of draw awaits Rafa on his way to the US Open title. It looks really good compared to Fed's draw:

Draw for Rafa according to Crystal Ball Tells All:

1 match: Donald Young WC
2 match: Scoville Jenkins
3 match: Vince Spadea
4 match: Guillermo Coria
Quarters: Arnauld Clemont
Semis: Rainer Shuettler
Final: Roger Federer

Rafa wins the title in 5 sets

Draw for Federer:

1 match: Joakim Johannson
2 match: Tommy Haas
3 match: James Blake
4 match:Thomas Berdych
Quarters: Novak Djokovic
Semis:David Nalbandian
Final: Rafa Nadal

:)

uxnaitoahz
07-16-2006, 06:46 PM
Nadal has no chance.

brucie
07-17-2006, 05:12 AM
Listen to Simon,:rolleyes: unfortunately he hasnt had much time to visit fter wimbledon, so i guess im late noticing him,
It's only a matter of time before Rafa captures the #1 ATP spot. He already holds the title of best in the world in the mind of most. He can win on all surfaces, just take a look at Wimbledon, he played terrible and still managed to take a set and force a tiebreak against the supposed best grass-courter in the world.
Will he ever learn? :rolleyes:

How about he adds fed wimbly score to his signature too.