Happy to disagree with you here, take away Federer's advancements in racket technology and put him in a field with those guys, where he would be facing very good clay players from the fourth round onward, I can see him win one, at best two. No chance in my eyes, he does better than that. As I said, I saw peak Federer beaten by past their primes former RG champions during his peak years. Now you may say 04 wasn't peak on clay, I will say it looks that way because of the two players he ran into, he quite easily handled Coria that year, who was the hottest player heading into RG. I do think Federer is second or at least tied second for best on clay in the past 15 years, but IMO, the field was nothing special compared to what I was watching in the 90s. Happy to disagree.
I certainly don't take away from Federer's prowess on clay, just like I don't take away from Nadal's on grass, but they have played in an era where polarization of surfaces simply does not exist. I don't see Nadal being a multiple time W champion either, if he walked among the grass giants of the 80s and 90s. Just how I see it.
Disagreement is just fine, but let's continue this.
Bold, you're absolutely right. String and racket technology is obviously a big f******g if. But Fed's still got the physical tools and the fleetness of foot to do well on clay in any era imo.
I have just gone through the draws for the top-seed in the 90's, except in 1993, where I gave him the 2nd seed, since Courier was the man to beat (Fed has spend more or less a decade being first or second seeded, so I think given him that seed is fair). And for the majority of years, I just fail to see the early round landmines, you speak of. Sampras got to the QF 4 times and advanced to the semis once in those runs. Agassi got to 3 finals and should have won 2 of them. Is he a better clay courter than Federer would have been in the 90's? I don't think so.
I think you're being overly harsh to Fed with regards to his 2004 losses to Costa and Guga. As you say, he also beat Coria (and Moya) that year. And he did beat Guga on clay in Hamburg in 2002. So what are we to take from this? That Fed, when playing well, could beat the man to beat on clay in 2004, but could also lose to great past their prime clay courters? That he would hold his own against them, but not win every single time as he did vs. pretty much anyone not named Nadal from 05 onwards?
Caveat to the below: I didn't follow tennis as religiously as I do know in the 90's (I was a kid and cared at least as much about football, track & field and tour de france). So to some extent, I'm looking at names and records as my memory is either hazy or non-existent in some of the years.
But give Fed's the no. 1 seed's draw here in a peak year throughout the 90's and who takes him out in the respective years?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1990_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 (Leconte, Agassi, Gomez. Who beats Fed here? Fear of losing his wig Agassi? Gomez?) - pretty clear win imo.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1991_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 (Courier, Stich and Agassi - not easy but only Courier could be argued to have clay as his best surface but even that's debatable if you look at his title distribution and W/L record
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_8 (as Courier's the man to beat, I've made Fed the 2nd seed - (he gets Korda, Leconte and Courier in the last 3). Courier did get Muster in the 2nd though, but won in straights.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - Sampras got to the QF and lost in 4 to Bruguera, who then beat Medvedev and won in 5 over Courer. Tough but not impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - Sampras got to the QF and lost in 4 to Courier, who then lost in 5 to Bruguera, who beat Berasategui in 4 in the final. Again tough but not impossible.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - Kafelnikov, Muster, Change. Muster too much of a beast this year (Agassi got to the QF without losing a set).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - Courier, Kafelnikov, Stich. Sampras got to the semi for the first and only time, but got hammered by Kafelnikov after being in a long 5-setter vs. Courier. Could def. see Fed win this one. Kafelnikov beat Stich in the final.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - Sampras out to young Norman in the 3rd. Dewulf, Kuerten, Brugeara in the last 3. Kuerten probably too much.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - Sampras out to Delgado in the 2nd, who, while indeed a surface specialist only has one minor ATP RU to show for it. Mantilla, Muster (who Mantilla beat), Moya and Corretja). Tough field, no doubt and easy to slip somewhere.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1999_French_Open_–_Men's_Singles#Section_1 - GOAT Hrbatý took Kafelnikov out in the 2nd round and went all the way to the semi. Given he leads Fedal in h2h, tough cookie to crack for Fed... had he survived, Rios, Agassi and Medvedev would be awaiting. Tough but not quite impossible.
And then you have 1989, where Chang beat Lendl in the 4th, who then beat Agenór, Chesnokov and ... Edberg (who beat Boris in the semi, mind you!).
All in all, he would have his chances at least as often as not as far as I can tell. And even if he went the road of Sampras in terms of being a fast court specialist in the 90's, he'd still have, what Sampras hadn't: The physical ability to grind it out on clay if need be.
I'll just repeat my arguments about Fed's clay prowess below for anyone else interested in discussing this, since you didn't quote that part.
while the general consensus here is probably to overrate Fed on clay, I do think you guys are doing the opposite. Yes, the opposition wasn't great. But from 2005 onwards, he did put himself in the final close to every time.
He took Rafa to 5 in Rome and had MPs. Let him take one of those and perhaps he even wins an FO-final too vs. Rafa. The 13-2 or whatever it is h2h on clay is not only a clear indication that Rafa is a level (or 2 or 3 above Fed on clay).
It's also a direct result of Fed having a mental problem vs. Rafa. Take the FO 2007 final. 17 BPs, one break. Take the FO 2006 final - 6-1 first set and then loses the plot and loses in a 4th breaker. Take 2011 for that matter. At the very least, Fed had the game to take Rafa to 5 there.
Also, see his 2011 semi vs. Novak for proof that he can indeed play with the best at their best on the surface.
With no Rafa, he does win a minimum of 3 and more likely 4-5 FO's in this era. As good as the specialists were, they don't have the match-up and the mental advantage that Rafa's always enjoyed vs. Fed.
So yeah, I could def. see Fed being a multiple FO-winner in pretty much any other decade.