[Hypothetical match] Would you beat Federer in a best-of-3 match if...

How many points Fed can afford to lose in order to have an even match Fed-You?

  • 1

    Votes: 4 19.0%

  • 2

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • 3

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • 4

    Votes: 3 14.3%

  • 5

    Votes: 2 9.5%

  • 6+

    Votes: 10 47.6%
  • Total voters
    21
BetaServe

BetaServe

Professional
If you win one point, you win the whole match. In other words, every point is a match point for you and Fed needs to win all the points to win the match (he needs to beat you 6-0 6-0 with all love games), else he will lose the match.
If you think taking one point off Fed is too easy, how many points do you think Fed can afford to lose in order to have an even matchup between you and Fed? (Poll)
(The smaller the number, the greater the disadvantage (for Fed), so if you choose 1, that means Fed is much much stronger than you. If you choose 6+, that means Fed is still stronger but not as much)
Obviously the answers vary depending on your level. A 5.0 might find getting one point is totally doable while a 3.0 would say even one point is impossible. It'd be fun to see that type of match in real life.
 
Last edited:
HunterST

HunterST

Hall of Fame
BetaServe said:
If you win one point, you win the whole match. In other words, every point is a match point for you and Fed needs to win all the points to win the match (he needs to beat you 6-0 6-0 with all love games), else he will lose the match.
If you think taking one point off Fed is too easy, how many points do you think Fed can afford to lose in order to have an even matchup between you and Fed? (Poll)
(The smaller the number, the greater the disadvantage (for Fed), so if you choose 1, that means Fed is much much too stronger than you. If you choose 6+, that means Fed is stronger than you but not much)
Obviously the answers vary depending on your level. A 5.0 might find getting one point is totally doable while a 3.0 would say even one point is impossible. It'd be fun to see that type of match in real life.

P/s: We were discussing about a problem related to luck & probability in our engineering class, I got bored and came up with this crazy scenario :D
Click to expand...

This would be about right to make it competitive. We'd both have a shot at winning. My only chance, of course, would be he either double faults or I hit a decent enough serve that he just happens to miss the return. Over six games, there might be a 50/50 chance of one of those things happening.
 
BetaServe

BetaServe

Professional
HunterST said:
This would be about right to make it competitive. We'd both have a shot at winning. My only chance, of course, would be he either double faults or I hit a decent enough serve that he just happens to miss the return. Over six games, there might be a 50/50 chance of one of those things happening.
Click to expand...
More interesting question, would Fed become a pusher and would he stand far back behind like Nadal when returning serve?
 
C

comeback

Hall of Fame
i love these scenarios...I don't doubt a 4.5 could win a few points here and there from Federer...Fed makes errors.....It's hard to be perfect on every point ..
guys like Nadal, Djkovic Murray could pull it off for a set as they are much more calculated and consistent than Roger
 
HunterST

HunterST

Hall of Fame
BetaServe said:
I honestly think Nadal would be a tougher opponent for me than Federer (it feels so strange saying this lol)
Click to expand...

I think we're so much below their level that playing style wouldn't matter much.
We'd have to completely give up on playing normal tennis and just go for the biggest, best placed serve we could come up with on every point. There would be essentially 0 chance on winning a point on their serve, so that would pretty much be a matter of hoping they missed.
 
BetaServe

BetaServe

Professional
HunterST said:
I think we're so much below their level that playing style wouldn't matter much.
We'd have to completely give up on playing normal tennis and just go for the biggest, best placed serve we could come up with on every point. There would be essentially 0 chance on winning a point on their serve, so that would pretty much be a matter of hoping they missed.
Click to expand...
How many points do you think Fed can afford to lose if he wants to beat a 4.5 player?
My guess is at least 5.
 
Topspin Shot

Topspin Shot

Legend
I stopped playing tournaments a year ago, but when I played my UTR was 10-11. Fed's is 16, so that's a 5-6 point difference. If I played a UTR 5, I'd never give up a game but I wouldn't win every point. Not saying there's a linear relationship here, and I've never played someone Fed's level so I'll never know. But I think I could get points off him. I don't think that's true for an average player though.
 
HunterST

HunterST

Hall of Fame
BetaServe said:
How many points do you think Fed can afford to lose if he wants to beat a 4.5 player?
My guess is at least 5.
Click to expand...

I'm a weaker 4.5 player, so I'm sticking with the one.

Again, this is to make it 50/50 competitive, not where Fed has an advantage.
 
HunterST

HunterST

Hall of Fame
Topspin Shot said:
I stopped playing tournaments a year ago, but when I played my UTR was 10-11. Fed's is 16, so that's a 5-6 point difference. If I played a UTR 5, I'd never give up a game but I wouldn't win every point. Not saying there's a linear relationship here, and I've never played someone Fed's level so I'll never know. But I think I could get points off him. I don't think that's true for an average player though.
Click to expand...

A UTR 11 might get a point or two in some service games. Fed would hold at love most of the time. I'm saying a UTR 11 could get maybe 6 points in a match.
 
FiReFTW

FiReFTW

Legend
Fes is certainly capable of that, but it would require alot of focus and concentration.

Just a split second of lack of focus and slight misshit and it could quickly end.

Remember fed is not used to such slow junk balls that he would get here, its harder than you might think..

Any of you ever play against a player way bellow your level? One you can beat with ur left finger, but his balls were so slow and akward balls ur not used too that you made a few really weird misshits, would be same for fed.

It doesnt help that its hard to take it seriously against such balls and underestimate them and have lazy footwork
 
heninfan99

heninfan99

Talk Tennis Guru
BetaServe said:
If you win one point, you win the whole match. In other words, every point is a match point for you and Fed needs to win all the points to win the match (he needs to beat you 6-0 6-0 with all love games), else he will lose the match.
If you think taking one point off Fed is too easy, how many points do you think Fed can afford to lose in order to have an even matchup between you and Fed? (Poll)
(The smaller the number, the greater the disadvantage (for Fed), so if you choose 1, that means Fed is much much too stronger than you. If you choose 6+, that means Fed is stronger than you but not much)
Obviously the answers vary depending on your level. A 5.0 might find getting one point is totally doable while a 3.0 would say even one point is impossible. It'd be fun to see that type of match in real life.

P/s: We were discussing about a problem related to luck & probability in our engineering class, I got bored and came up with this crazy scenario :D
Click to expand...
do you have to hit a winner or just wait for a double fault?
 
FiReFTW

FiReFTW

Legend
The hardest would be service games, I think ud have no chance, he could drop off pace slightly and get like 80% 1st serves in and you could barely get a racquet on some, and his kick serves would be too hard to return.
 
K

Kevo

Legend
I think winning one point or even 5 points is a bit too easy in two sets. I don't care how good someone is, if you have a good serve you have a shot at winning a point or two every service game.

Now what would be a real challenge would be to take a point off his service game.

Either way, I'd love to play him even if he did smoke me and I only won a handful of points on my serve.
 
D

dominikk1985

Legend
Only chance would be a deadly net cord ball but i doubt i could return any of his serves or returns.

Maybe you have a chance if he breaks a string
 
BetaServe

BetaServe

Professional
ReopeningWed said:
I think you guys seriously overestimate how good you are and seriously underestimate how good the pros are. 1 point for the regular posters here except for Jolly, he gets two.
Click to expand...
Pros could double fault and miss serve return given that your serve is somewhat good.
 
N

NLBwell

Legend
I'm saying 6 points. I figure, on average I could win 1 point per serve game. Sometimes I might not win a point on my serve, but sometimes he might make a silly error, also.
 
BallBag

BallBag

Professional
I'm a decent 4.0. I do a drill where I get to play a good 5.0 player and the game is setup where he can't afford to lose any points to me so he's actually focused. In the 7 months I've been doing this drill, I got 3 points off that dude.

I know it sucks to think about it, but what we do and what pros do is not even the same game.
 
Last edited:
BetaServe

BetaServe

Professional
BallBag said:
I'm a decent 4.0. I do a drill where I get to play a good 5.0 player and the game is setup where he can't afford to lose any points to me so he's actually focused. In the 7 months I've been doing this drill, I got 3 points off that dude.

I know it sucks to think about it, but what we do and what pros do is not even the same game.
Click to expand...
That sounds like a good way to practice btw.
 
BallBag

BallBag

Professional
BetaServe said:
That sounds like a good way to practice btw.
Click to expand...
It is, I have to play 3.0s in the same drill and I drop a lot more points to a 3.0 than I win from a 5.0. The difference between a 5.0 and 4.0 is greater than 4.0 to 3.0. I think UTR is more linear where a 3.0 is about a 4 and 4.0 is about a 6 and a 5.0 is about a 10.
 
user92626

user92626

G.O.A.T.
This is such a BS scenario.

A practical one is where you guys challenge any 3.5s or 3.0s with giving them 30-love for every game. If this is still too easy, let them hit to your doubles-size court. See how challenging it is.



This place is soooo colorful with characters and talks but I never see anyone say they play such scenarios that I describe above.
 
FiReFTW

FiReFTW

Legend
I know many people here are ignorant but the pro game is so much in a whole new stratosphere that its not even funny, Federer destroys a top 300ish guy 6:1 6:2 6:1, and that guy would destroy the top WTA players 6:1 6:0.

Heres the reailty, even if a 5.0 player would play Federer:

When Federer is serving, he could tone down the serve speed to like 80-85% and hit around 100-110mph and improving his placement even more, hitting probably 80-90% 1st serves in that hit sidelines and slice off the court, and the 5.0 would barely get a racquet on a few, and I hightly doubt he would even return a single serve into the court unless lucky.
When Federer would serve his kick serve it would be harder for the 5.0 to return it than even for WTA players, and we know how WTA players struggle with men kick serves.

So basically on Federer's serve FORGET IT, NO CHANCE to win a single point, unless EXTREMELY LUCKY and somehow misshiting some crazy weird dropshot that caughts him off guard or something or Federer somehow makes a double fault, but I doubt it since he would tone it down a bit to improve his placement.

On your serve is where the best chances would be

Only problem is 5.0 serve is not good enough to give Federer any trouble, he would tone down his strokes also and spin the ball crazy amount that ur not used to, and you couldn't even handle his return ball and would make a ton of errors or caugh up short sitters that Federer would crush past you.

Remember even at the pro level with pro level strokes, if a pro coughs up a short ball its almost game over, the ball is crushed past them 99% of the time, unless they guess the right direction, and your ball is nowhere near the quality of a pro ball neither are you used to such a heavy ball, so even if you could get slightly used to it and not make a ton of errors off it, you would cough up mostly short balls from it, you couldn't hit such a heavy ball deep very often.

So a 5.0 in my opinion would win a few points against Federer in only 2 scenarios, if Federer took it seriously and intensely from the start.

1.Extremely lucky shots, or weird misshits that end up in world class shots somehow (you all know what im talking about, it has happened to everyone).
2.If the 5'0's serve was his major weapon and was actually very good, and he could hit up to 110mph at least, and if he went absolutely ALL OUT and trying to crush the serve and hit it at wide spots, his 1st percentage would not be good but if he got a few in then I could see Federer making an error perhaps or even getting aced if struck really well

Maybe theres some other scenarios but these two are 99% the likeliest way to win points off him.

And this is a 5'0 player, a very good rec level player.
 
FiReFTW

FiReFTW

Legend
The problem is most people have never played against a top 10 atp player and cant even phantom the level of tennis that it is.

Its kinda like when you see a really good player somewhere and think damn that guy is good, i could probably win a few games off him only, then you play him and can hardly win a few points and the shots are too fast, too overwhelming and ur like...wow how is this possible, and your mind accepts the reality that ur completely outclassed.

Only that this time its much worse than that because people here are talking about the nr1 level (top 5 ATP) that completely outclasses a nr2 level, which completely outclasses a nr3 level, which completely outclasses nr4 level, which completely outclasses nr5 level (I guess a 5.0 would be here)
 
BetaServe

BetaServe

Professional

DuhDuJour is a solid 5.0 player and he can ace Djokovic + Djokovic made some mistakes, although he's not playing serious here but it shows that a 5.0 getting a point of a pro is definitely possible
 
M

Midaso240

Legend
Zero chance for me,haven't played in years. Someone that had an exceptional serve though,could see winning the odd point hitting their spots every so often forcing an error
 
FiReFTW

FiReFTW

Legend
BetaServe said:

DuhDuJour is a solid 5.0 player and he can ace Djokovic + Djokovic made some mistakes, although he's not playing serious here but it shows that a 5.0 getting a point of a pro is definitely possible
Click to expand...

Djokovic is playing lol, he might have hit 1 or 2 serious shots.
 
BounceHitBounceHit

BounceHitBounceHit

Legend
There was video here many years ago of some 5.0’s playing sets with a then fairly recently retired Edberg at a fantasy camp. They were winning points regularly and a game here and there, but Fed is another story. [emoji56]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
 
M

mental midget

Hall of Fame
FiReFTW said:
I know many people here are ignorant but the pro game is so much in a whole new stratosphere that its not even funny, Federer destroys a top 300ish guy 6:1 6:2 6:1, and that guy would destroy the top WTA players 6:1 6:0.

Heres the reailty, even if a 5.0 player would play Federer:

When Federer is serving, he could tone down the serve speed to like 80-85% and hit around 100-110mph and improving his placement even more, hitting probably 80-90% 1st serves in that hit sidelines and slice off the court, and the 5.0 would barely get a racquet on a few, and I hightly doubt he would even return a single serve into the court unless lucky.
When Federer would serve his kick serve it would be harder for the 5.0 to return it than even for WTA players, and we know how WTA players struggle with men kick serves.

So basically on Federer's serve FORGET IT, NO CHANCE to win a single point, unless EXTREMELY LUCKY and somehow misshiting some crazy weird dropshot that caughts him off guard or something or Federer somehow makes a double fault, but I doubt it since he would tone it down a bit to improve his placement.

On your serve is where the best chances would be

Only problem is 5.0 serve is not good enough to give Federer any trouble, he would tone down his strokes also and spin the ball crazy amount that ur not used to, and you couldn't even handle his return ball and would make a ton of errors or caugh up short sitters that Federer would crush past you.

Remember even at the pro level with pro level strokes, if a pro coughs up a short ball its almost game over, the ball is crushed past them 99% of the time, unless they guess the right direction, and your ball is nowhere near the quality of a pro ball neither are you used to such a heavy ball, so even if you could get slightly used to it and not make a ton of errors off it, you would cough up mostly short balls from it, you couldn't hit such a heavy ball deep very often.

So a 5.0 in my opinion would win a few points against Federer in only 2 scenarios, if Federer took it seriously and intensely from the start.

1.Extremely lucky shots, or weird misshits that end up in world class shots somehow (you all know what im talking about, it has happened to everyone).
2.If the 5'0's serve was his major weapon and was actually very good, and he could hit up to 110mph at least, and if he went absolutely ALL OUT and trying to crush the serve and hit it at wide spots, his 1st percentage would not be good but if he got a few in then I could see Federer making an error perhaps or even getting aced if struck really well

Maybe theres some other scenarios but these two are 99% the likeliest way to win points off him.

And this is a 5'0 player, a very good rec level player.
Click to expand...

this is a good assessment. his accuracy and variety on serve=zero points for 5.0 and below, almost no question there. a higher-level hacker (4.5-5.0) who can hit their spots with the pace you mentioned MIGHT, once or twice, get at least a hittable return off their top shelf, 1 in 100 slider out wide for example. if they can keep it together and paint a line on the follow up ball, hallelujah maybe he can't quite get there.

it seems plausible, you think, an entire set, two sets, whatever, something's gotta give right? but then imagine playing it out, point to point...there's just no realistic scenario where he doesn't take immediate control and finish with ease. as far as 'swinging out' going for winners from the baseline, the thing is, you won't get that chance to set your feet, like, ever. it would be crazy scrambling in one form or another just to get in position to make contact. and even if you do, he's going to A. read it, and B. he's faster with better footwork than anybody they've ever played, and is gonna get there with 99.9999% certainty. i'm a good 5.0 player but for example played a younger kid who played like 2nd spot on a div 1 team a few years back. just couldn't play my game, simple as that. held once on a strong service game, and maybe second time around w some familiarity with his play could have squeezed out a 6-2 set or something, but realistically could go 6-0 10 sets in a row as well, and a 'golden set' on his part wouldn't have been out of the question. now toss federer in there...no way man.
 
ChaelAZ

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
BetaServe said:
If you win one point, you win the whole match. In other words, every point is a match point for you and Fed needs to win all the points to win the match (he needs to beat you 6-0 6-0 with all love games), else he will lose the match.
Click to expand...

Honestly, I like my chances. Between possible double faults, creeping over net cord drop winners (which I would actually try to hit), his bordem vs. my actual trying, etc....the intagibles favor me no matter who is on the other side to get one point out of two sets.
 
MarinaHighTennis

MarinaHighTennis

Hall of Fame
FiReFTW said:
Djokovic is playing lol, he might have hit 1 or 2 serious shots.
Click to expand...
yeah he was, although i used to work for steve johnson sr. at his academy and played some with steve johnson. I was able to get a few points on my serve per game and like 1 pt on his bc unreturnable
 
user92626

user92626

G.O.A.T.
ChaelAZ said:
Honestly, I like my chances. Between possible double faults, creeping over net cord drop winners (which I would actually try to hit), his bordem vs. my actual trying, etc....the intagibles favor me no matter who is on the other side to get one point out of two sets.
Click to expand...
Your chances would be very good. Any (4.0) player with some brain cells would know that he can take his winning chance by swinging wildly at the ball once it is within reach. No player can react to dozen and dozen of random shots.

Federer is very good but his ball isn't invisible. His serve and shot placement is still on percentage (albeit very high) but it's not at his will.
 
D

dgold44

G.O.A.T.
BetaServe said:
If you win one point, you win the whole match. In other words, every point is a match point for you and Fed needs to win all the points to win the match (he needs to beat you 6-0 6-0 with all love games), else he will lose the match.
If you think taking one point off Fed is too easy, how many points do you think Fed can afford to lose in order to have an even matchup between you and Fed? (Poll)
(The smaller the number, the greater the disadvantage (for Fed), so if you choose 1, that means Fed is much much too stronger than you. If you choose 6+, that means Fed is stronger than you but not much)
Obviously the answers vary depending on your level. A 5.0 might find getting one point is totally doable while a 3.0 would say even one point is impossible. It'd be fun to see that type of match in real life.

P/s: We were discussing about a problem related to luck & probability in our engineering class, I got bored and came up with this crazy scenario :D
Click to expand...
The only shot to win a few points is if he makes an error ??

Could I score a shot on mayweather
Utterly impossible unless he allowed me
 
HunterST

HunterST

Hall of Fame
BetaServe said:

DuhDuJour is a solid 5.0 player and he can ace Djokovic + Djokovic made some mistakes, although he's not playing serious here but it shows that a 5.0 getting a point of a pro is definitely possible
Click to expand...
Gyswandir said:
It is @MarinaHighTennis

Here is one from Peliwo. He agreed to meet 2 guys and play 1 vs 2. There was a thread by one of them (don’t remember the thread), where he explained that except for the 1st point on second serve, where he went for another first, it was no contest.
Click to expand...
ChaelAZ said:
Honestly, I like my chances. Between possible double faults, creeping over net cord drop winners (which I would actually try to hit), his bordem vs. my actual trying, etc....the intagibles favor me no matter who is on the other side to get one point out of two sets.
Click to expand...

I think the fun “fan vs pro” videos don’t mean much for this.

I think the spirit of the OP’s hypothetical is that Fed is giving 100 percent. That would mean he went through a whole warm up, did the on-court warm up with the opponent (us) and is focused and trying to win.

The fan videos invariably are silly and just for fun. The pros aren’t too serious and are usually trying to give the fans some chances.
 
ChaelAZ

ChaelAZ

G.O.A.T.
HunterST said:
I think the fun “fan vs pro” videos don’t mean much for this.

I think the spirit of the OP’s hypothetical is that Fed is giving 100 percent. That would mean he went through a whole warm up, did the on-court warm up with the opponent (us) and is focused and trying to win.

The fan videos invariably are silly and just for fun. The pros aren’t too serious and are usually trying to give the fans some chances.
Click to expand...

I still think in two full sets I ha e a good chance of getting one point on a momentary lack of focus/interest, or some shank/net cord winner, and ace or such.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
HunterST

HunterST

Hall of Fame
ChaelAZ said:
I still think in two full sets I ha e a good chance of getting one point on a momentary lack of focus/interest, or some shank/net cord winner, and ace or such.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, I could see it happening. I also don’t think a golden set is unlikely. Seems like about 50/50 shot for either to win.
 
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