Yep - he was garbage when he took Nole all the way in the AO semis, terrible when he made the final of Wimbledon and bloody awful when he won the Olympics.
10% chance to beat Nadal at the AO? Is this the same Nadal with a 2-2 H2h v Murray in hardcourt slams? The same Nadal that Murray leads 5-4 on hards since 2008 - that Nadal?
I'm loving how you concede that Murray might 'sneak' the USO. Others would win it of course, but Murray would sneak it - despite beign the defending champion.
Murray suffered more brain-fart-esque losses than the rest of the top 4 this year. Despite having the best year of his career it doesn't mean he was the best.
He was pwnd in the Wimbledon final despite a good start and eventually folded - go watch it... once Federer was back even it was almost one-way traffic from there on in. That, by top standards, is not a great performance in a major final. At the Olympics he played fantastically - but was also the beneficiary of Federer playing much worse than he had as Wimbledon (and of Nadal being absent).
So far as the AO goes, Djokovic is playing well and he's better on that surface hands-down than Murray. Nadal is a question-mark. I wouldn't be surprised if he came back playing pretty good tennis
OR, equally, if it took him 6 months to get back up to speed. Either way I'd put money on Federer winning the AO before Murray. Fresher legs, better recent form, more experience, more random God form factor potential if he gets his stars lined up right.
So far as Murray having a good year - of course he did - but his path to the Olympics and the US Open titles were made easier by Nadal not being there (as it would have been for anyone else too technically). The fact he was the first person to win a major without having to defeat either Federer or Nadal for something like 7 years says a lot. Put both of them back in the draw at semis time and see how well Murray can handle a couple of top players in a row. He's never done it once in his entire career to date at a major. He's always flunked the next match when he's gotten past one of the big guns at a major. He's still not at the level of the other three, even if his short-term form has stepped up a notch big time.
Lastly, being the defending champion has no impact on a player's chances of winning a major. Being a great player does. Murray has no more chance at next year's US Open
as of now than Djokovic or Federer. Time will tell how soon Nadal can get back into top gear, if at all.
