2 months into his comeback, what form percentage is Nadal at?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by JackReacher, Apr 27, 2013.

  1. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    I'd say he's at about 70%. He'll need to be at 75% to beat Dj. Nadal served for the 2nd set in the MC Final, so obviously a very minor fraction of improvement is required to take it to 3 sets, and to win the match I'd say a 5% improvement. Then again, maybe Nadal doesn't even need to improve. We've seen how up and down Dj is. Nadal's groundstrokes looked excellent in the 2nd set, but his serve lately has been way off. He's getting a high% of serves in but isn't doing much with it. Serve might be the area that will put him over the top.
     
    #1
  2. Apun94

    Apun94 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    758
    No, Nadal needs to be atleast 95% to beat Nole 2.0 on clay. And this is coming from a Nadal fan. Nole is THAT good
     
    #2
  3. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    When did that Dj exist?
     
    #3
  4. TTMR

    TTMR Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2009
    Messages:
    1,943
    He's better than he has ever been, with perhaps a barely noticeable regression in his movement. His serve and groundstrokes are more effective than ever. Rather, what has happened, is that the tour has lost its fear of Nadal. Djokovic has showed them that indeed the mighty "king of clay" is a naked emperor, a ruler of a castle of sand.
     
    Last edited: Apr 27, 2013
    #4
  5. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    So far Nadal has beaten Federer, Tsonga, Ferrer, Del Potro, Berdych. None of them have been able to beat 70% Nadal. And Dj needed a tie-breaker. What's going to happen when Nadal reaches 75%?
     
    #5
  6. FedererDropShot

    FedererDropShot Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2012
    Messages:
    2,066
    When Nadal reaches 75%, Novak ups it even further.
     
    #6
  7. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    31,084
    Location:
    New York
    Djoko is Rafa's only problem. And given that he's still leading their head to head, it's obviously NOT an insurmountable one. Maybe Murray on hard too occasionally but I don't see any other player who would be a problem for Rafa on all surfaces.
    That form % business is completely bogus. Players almost never play their matches at 100% anyway. If they had to wait until optimal form to win matches, they would not win much at all.
     
    #7
  8. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    That didn't work in 2012.
     
    #8
  9. 90's Clay

    90's Clay Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2012
    Messages:
    7,526
    70-75 percent. He will never be top top form again but if he can get to the 90 percentile of top form he will still win many slams.

    He should just focus on slams and limit non slam events by quite a bit.. This will extend his slam count and longevity
     
    #9
  10. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    I wonder what Nadal's level was in 2011 compared to 2012. It really low in 2011 when he was playing Federer in the Roland Garros final. Nadal was dropping the ball crazy short and not doing much with the serve either. That was the year Isner took him to 5 sets. I think 2011 proved Nadal can win Roland Garros with minimal form. He looks better now than 2011 Roland Garros.
     
    #10
  11. Backbored

    Backbored Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    2,084
    Location:
    Mallorn trees of Lothlorien.
    I’m in agreement with you. It is going to be an interesting clay and grass season.
     
    #11
  12. kishnabe

    kishnabe G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 16, 2008
    Messages:
    17,199
    Location:
    Toronto
    When you step on court you are 100 percent, no?
     
    #12
  13. PrinceMoron

    PrinceMoron Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 1, 2009
    Messages:
    3,217
    100% .............. Sorry but I just don't get how you can arrive at a percentage figure of 75%. What happened, one of his legs fell off or something?
     
    #13
  14. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

    Joined:
    Apr 9, 2011
    Messages:
    12,686
    I think he's still struggling quite a bit so I think 75% is far too high right now. He has regressed from last year drastically, and since he needs to be redlining just to beat a Djesus playing a 50%, his form right now is nowhere near good enough. Playing this way, Nadal will not be beating Djesus any time soon.
     
    #14
  15. mltaylor

    mltaylor Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2006
    Messages:
    140
    So, is Fed, DJ & Nadal UNBEATABLE when 100%?

    So basically Nadal is undefeated at 100%? HUH.

    As Kishnabe said, if you are on court you are at 100%. YEP.
    I'll admit you will most always have some sort of issue going on to keep everything from being perfect (blister, wind etc.). You show up on court to play, that's it, NO EXCUSES.

    Maybe we should start a new thread "Who is the GOAT at 100%"
    "Who was UNBEATABLE at their Best"
     
    #15
  16. Apun94

    Apun94 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    758
    Nope, his highest level was at that MC final. He cant play any better
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2013
    #16
  17. Chanwan

    Chanwan Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2012
    Messages:
    9,280
    What do you guys even mean with 70 %? (or 80 or 90). Does he run at 70 % of his normal speed? Hit with 70 % pace, 70 % spin etc? Cause then he wouldn't be beating top 100 players.

    So please, define what you mean with percent in terms of tennis level.
     
    #17
  18. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Ha, interesting to see you don't mind Nadal fans making excuses about his form (furthemore you seem to agree with them) but can't resist the urge to ridicule people who claim 30+ year old Fed has declined.

    Nice double standards there TTMR.
     
    #18
  19. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Nope, Novak can play much better than he did in the 2nd set (that wasn't his highest level by any stretch of imagination), for example see any of his matches against Nadal on clay in 2011.
     
    #19
  20. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Weren't you supposed to be e Novak fan? Sorry, I got you mixed up with Djokovic2008, my bad.
     
    #20
  21. abmk

    abmk G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2008
    Messages:
    15,980
    Location:
    U.S
    of course .......others can be sub-peak, off-form etc, but federer is forever at the peak of his powers !
     
    #21
  22. Lukhas

    Lukhas Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2013
    Messages:
    6,583
    Location:
    France
    80%. His aim is still off (too many UE), could be more solid mentally, is still hesitant about his placement but that's enough to beat most players and live up his seeding/ranking. He needs more competition to come back to 90%. The 10% left are a toss-up between form, injuries, mileage and such and IMO can't really be realistically setted up regularly every time. To be very close to 100% would be one's max potential at a time being, a Federer 05/06, a Djokovic 2011 (besides end-year when he was injured), when a player is in the zone, every condition unified. I'd rather believe all players perform at lower than 100%, in the 80-90's and reach higher percentage sometimes, for few matches, tournaments, months, years, than they suddenly for no reason go over 100%. Being able to perform at 90, 95% is hard enough like this.

    EDIT: My point being that his body is healed, but his mind and strokes still need adjustment. He's still hesitant about some stuff he does here and there, it only will be tweaked with tournaments against big guys IMO.
     
    Last edited: Apr 28, 2013
    #22
  23. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    I agree. The MC final helped Nadal clearly, because at Barcelona he's looked a lot sharper and the Raonic match is the sharpest Nadal has looked this year. I think mentally it helped Nadal because he saw how close he was to Dj. Nadal was serving for the 2nd set at 6-5. Knowing that you are that close to a 3rd set and perhaps beating Dj, is a big deal this early in the comeback.
     
    #23
  24. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    May 2, 2010
    Messages:
    12,150
    Probably because God's power never diminishes. Even the Fed haters secretly know he is God... :twisted:
     
    #24
  25. phnx90

    phnx90 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2010
    Messages:
    3,063
    Location:
    Banned
    Where did you get the 70-75% figure from?

    Anyway, I think it's too early to say. Last year, Djokovic was distracted and this year, (supposedly) Nadal is still recovering and not fit.

    We'll have to see how they do in Rome should they meet (I think Djokovic will win Madrid). I hope Nadal regains his 2012 form by then.
     
    #25
  26. Apun94

    Apun94 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    758
    When one is playing as good as Nole was in that match, it's normal to have one or two bad games. That doesnt mean, as a whole, that he played bad. Even in 2011, he had some bad games. Luckily they were not on his own serve. Plus he played his best at the biggest points. I would take that any day over playing great throughout th whole match but missing the big ones.
    Dont know what you are trying to prove here by vehemently denying that Nole is still not at his best
     
    #26
  27. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Hah, in a nutshell.

    On topic, I'd say Nadal is at say 80-85%? Regardless, he's as sure of a bet as there is in tennis against the rest of the field on clay with one exception being in-form Novak.
     
    #27
  28. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Didn't say Novak played bad now did I? He played great in the 1st set, solid in the 2nd set until that inspired return game when Nadal was serving for the 2nd set (in which Nadal made 4 unforced errors according to you, LOL).

    In 2011, especially in his matches against Nadal on clay Novak kept his level high from start to finish, didn't have any significant dips (aside from maybe the 1st set in Madrid).

    Just saying that Novak didn't play his best tennis in the 2nd set and that he can certainly play better, he didn't keep up the depth of his shots, didn't return Nadal's serve as well as he usually can, unlike in the 1st was reluctant to go DTL off both wings etc.
     
    #28
  29. mariecon

    mariecon Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 14, 2013
    Messages:
    1,960
    Location:
    the Great White North
    Whom did he play in Barcelona? Not one top 10 player. We saw how he played against Djoko. He may never beat Djoko once this year after a deflating straight sets loss in a tournament he owned until this year. And Barcelona's a 500 level tourney. Can't compare it to a GS. If it gives him confidence, winning a title by beating the 12th ranked player, one of his Spanish fanboys, good for him. But it's a false sense of security IMO.
     
    #29
  30. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    But Nadal didn't play well in any of the Monte Carlo matches. Its a bad sign for Dj that a messy Nadal was in a position to serve for the 2nd set. I don't like Dj chances at Roland Garros. Nadal was never going to peak by Monte Carlo, and will only get better.
     
    #30
  31. Sabratha

    Sabratha G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2012
    Messages:
    12,476
    Location:
    Australia
    He is at about 65-70%, but Djokovic and Murray are not performing as well as they should and Federer is practically dropping off.
     
    #31
  32. JackReacher

    JackReacher Guest

    Dj looked better at MC Final this year than he looked at RG Final last year.
     
    #32
  33. welcome2petrkordaland

    welcome2petrkordaland Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    May 16, 2006
    Messages:
    712
    Location:
    Orange County
    I'd say 80% of his realistic peak %... seems tentative on volleys and when coming in to net since his comeback IMHO

    Surprised no one commented on weather conditions, as they relate to this rivalry on clay... Mark my words. It will factor in hugely at the french, esp. if novak and rafa go toe to toe again. Just look at last year's final and the way the court conditions TOTALLY changed the momentum of the match. There's a reason Rafa and Uncle Toni were *****ing at last yr's final when the rain was coming down incessantly. His ball loses its kick big time in those conditions!

    It's pretty simple: Slower, heavier, colder, wetter, rainier conditions: ADVANTAGE NOVAK

    Faster, quicker, drier, hotter conditions: ADVANTAGE RAFA

    Here's another detail. Rafa's court positions on the return is putting him at a disadvantage on the wide serves. He needs to move forward on the return position, at least in the deuce court to protect against the wide rightly slider. This could be the dealbreaker vs. Novak.
     
    #33
  34. Lukhas

    Lukhas Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2013
    Messages:
    6,583
    Location:
    France
    ^The reason Nadal doesn't like rain it's because the ball bounce lower. Not because it's actually slower IMO. Balls going head high suddenly become shoulder high and sliceable, balls being shoulder high become chest/hip high and are easier to smack. Slices stay also lower, which means Nadal has to pick up the ball much more.

    Then, his court positioning... He does it because he can pull it off. He has the bulk to be able to re-accelerate the ball. He doesn't get serve 'n volley'd often, because even if the return allows an attack, if said attack is just not good enough, you'll have to play the volley in the shoe laces. When he doesn't straight away return in the socks.

    Otherwise we agree on the percentage of form compared to his peak level as I wrote higher there.
     
    #34
  35. Apun94

    Apun94 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    758
    Firstly, Nadal made Novak look good in the first set. Nadal started off slowly and his footwork was not there. That allowed Nole to play his shots. Nole wasnt even stretched to his limit. Only when Nadal raised his level significantly did we see some errors by Nole. I mean, by your logic, if Nole plays his peak level he can win against peak Nadal 6-2 6-2???!! Incredible.
    About when I said 3 UE's. Yes I was wrong. I think it was the 4-2 game rather than the 6-5 game.
    The only time Nole played ridiculously insane was in Rome. Other than that, even in Madrid 2011, he had a couple of okay games. You cant make your generalisation on one match. If that were the case, Rosol would have won some big tournaments by now. And look where he is right now.
    Bottom line: Nole played his best at MC. Yes, even in the 2nd set. One bad game doesnt count if you can back it up with superb play.
     
    #35
  36. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,552
    He's said himself he's at around 80%. Sounds about right. He needs to up that 5% more to be comfortable against Djok on the clay.
     
    #36
  37. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,552
    Agreed. It was noticeable in last year's RG final that when the sun shined and the courts were hard, it wasn't really a contest. As soon as the rain came and the courts dampened, it was all Novak. MC was damp but not as wet as that 3rd set in RG, but it was enough to dampen Nadal's game.

    Rafa needs to hope it is sunny in RG and Djok needs to hope it isn't.
     
    #37
  38. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,552
    Exactly right.
     
    #38
  39. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Nadal did start slowly but Novak was playing extremely well, returning and hitting deep, often going DTL with great success instead of just trying to grind down Nadal's BH with his CC FH like he did in the 2nd set, he played some great aggressive which took Nadal off guard and made him look worse than he was.



    I don't think Nadal raised his level significantly, he started to go for more off the ground (especially off the BH side compared to the 1st set) sure but Novak also let the gas of the pedal, started playing too defensive and wasn't returning Nadal's serve as well in the 1st set, only when he was on the brink of losing the 2nd set did he start to play aggressive again.

    Never said this was peak Nadal now did I? Earlier in the thread I said I think Nadal's at about 80-85% now which is long off his peak.

    It's OK, it happens when you watch the matches with Rafa googles on.


    What generalisation? I said Novak played on a higher level from start to finish in his 2011 matches against Nadal on clay than in their MC final meeting this year when he only played his best in the 1st set.



    Rosol? Meh, he's just yet another journeyman that gave Nadal a tough match in the 1st week of Wimbledon, difference is that unlike Petzchner and Haase for example he kept his nerve (and indoor conditions helped him).

    Bottom line, he played his best in the 1st set, not in the 2nd irregardless of what Nadal brought to the table.
     
    #39
  40. Apun94

    Apun94 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    758
    1. Nope, Nadal made Novak look good. When your opponent starts slow and you are in form, it's very easy to dominate. When you are getting easy shots from your opponent, then it's easy to be aggressive and play your best. Obviously you were desperate to convince yourself that if Nole plays that way, Nadal is helpless.
    2. I think it's obvious that it cant be decided wether Nole played his best at MC or not. You think not, but I do. It's a matter of personal opinion. And no, other posters here are definitely not the fit lot for that :)
     
    #40
  41. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2007
    Messages:
    26,546
    Location:
    Weak era
    Nope, Novak was zoning.

    It's not easy to dominate Nadal on clay by any stretch of imagination.

    Not really, I rooted for Novak to win the match and he did.

    When Novak plays the way he did in the 1st set Nadal in his current form ( or atleast the one he was in MC)is indeed helpless, that said I do expect Nadal to raise his level by FO.

    You don't say.
     
    #41
  42. pds999

    pds999 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 21, 2012
    Messages:
    1,552
    Agree with that post above. The fact is that when Nadal is playing his A game on clay, Novak simply doesn't get the chance to dominate. Rafa's length improves and the topspin bites more. It happened all throughout last year's clay court season and Novak won one set, because of the rain.

    If Rafa is dumping backhands into the net and hitting short the whole time, of course Novak will step in and dominate. But that doesn't always happen, and certainly won't at RG this year.
     
    #42
  43. Ehh

    Ehh Banned

    Joined:
    Mar 12, 2013
    Messages:
    473
    Nadal is obviously operating at 1%. Maybe 1.5%.

    Even this was enough to nearly beat an absolutely on-fire Djokovic who had not lost a set to anyone before facing Nadal and had recently had his ankles reinforced with indestructible titanium, and had been hibernating in the egg.

    Imagine if Nadal plays at 1.8% or even 2% of his potential in a few weeks!? He will be winning calendar slams for a decade straight.

    And, when he finally gets to 100% of his potential, some 15 years from now - no-one will ever be able to win a single point off him.

    Truly, he is Rafael 'The Impossible" Nadal - totally unbeatable as long as he is playing at more than 1.5% of his potential level.
     
    #43
  44. Flash O'Groove

    Flash O'Groove Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 28, 2012
    Messages:
    2,156
    If he can rise to 3% of his 2003 level, he could win 10 calendar slams in just one week.
     
    #44
  45. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    9,473
    Location:
    NON-Pigeon City
    Raffy is about 75% fit.
     
    #45
  46. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2008
    Messages:
    31,153
    Location:
    Somewhere under the weather ;)
    Brilliant post, sir.
    I don't get just one thing. At 2% of his potential he will win calendar slams for a decade straight. Then suddenly he is at 100% 15 years from now. So he jumps from 2 to 100% suddenly (within 5 years) after being stuck at 2% for 10 years.

    That's a huge leap. I think you meant TEN percent and not hundred. At ten percent no one would win a point off him. He will never need to go beyond that. Otherwise your post is flawless.
     
    #46
  47. cknobman

    cknobman Legend

    Joined:
    Sep 7, 2007
    Messages:
    6,205
    Location:
    Saudi Arabia
    #47
  48. xan

    xan Professional

    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2013
    Messages:
    1,112
    out of his ass?
     
    #48
  49. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2008
    Messages:
    31,153
    Location:
    Somewhere under the weather ;)
    Whose ?

    Ralph's ? ;)
     
    #49
  50. Apun94

    Apun94 Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Nov 7, 2011
    Messages:
    758
    1. Yeah whatever, this argument is solely based on personal opinion
    2. Novak is a good enough player that if Rafa starts off very slowly, he can dominate. No one else is good enough including Rog.
     
    #50

Share This Page