2013 Bracketology

Discussion in 'College Tennis Talk' started by Clemson_tennis, Apr 29, 2013.

  1. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    and yes i'm aware critiquing your comment just leaves me open for you to throw the Duke-WF upset in my face

    don't care - one match does not a season make - and neither team has a trophy from the weekend - i can deal with a foot in my mouth on a message board from Wake's big effort
     
  2. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2011
    Messages:
    13,266
    Location:
    In the future
    Road goes thru pepperdine and Mississipi. easier than expected.
     
  3. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    don't forget about LSU, dear feddie!
     
  4. TopDawg

    TopDawg Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2010
    Messages:
    9,474
    Location:
    Chesterfield, MO
    I think Wake should beat NW - 4-2 type of match. I'd like Wake at 1, 3, 4, & 5. NW at 2, 6. I'd be very surprised if Wake got more than 1 point against Georgia but you never know.
     
  5. WF_Fan

    WF_Fan New User

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    I agree with TopDawg. MikeJ-wake forest split sets at 5 and Lee beat Styslinger during the season. Not close to putting up a second point? I disagree. After your 0% chance of WF beating Duke in 17000 tries I don't know if you retain any credibility anymore. True it was only one match but that was an uneducated statement nonetheless.
     
  6. socaltennnis

    socaltennnis Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2008
    Messages:
    188
    All part of Peter Smith's plan to win a fifth!
     
  7. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    let us analyze how close they were

    4 matches completed - all lost in straight sets - don't think they won those ones

    at #4 mac led 7-6, 0-0 ... so they were still two full sets away ... or put another way, just as close as i would be to beating nadal if i were given a WC into the next master's series event and drew him in the first round

    at #5, ho was down 1-0 in third, having lost 7 of last 9 games, so a set away and not doing very well recently

    as you say, my percentages lost a little credibility last week, so i won't put a number on it, but WF was quite a distance from putting a second point on the board, and exponentially farther from putting third and fourth points on the board to win it

    just silly to say, based on a team's best win, that they would likely have won against by far the best team in the country if things had not gone indoors ... doubles points are pretty fickle, being pro sets and all ... winning three singles matches against UVA - good luck - only one team has done it this year (hint - it's a pretty good team that kicked your *** earlier this year - and that you woke up just in time for NCAAs last week)
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2013
  8. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    but to answer your original question - sure, good chance of beating NW, and i too agree with topdawg that more than one point in athens would be an unexpected performance from WF
     
  9. WF_Fan

    WF_Fan New User

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    you would go 7-6 in the first set if you drew nadal in the first round of a masters series event? all credibility lost.
     
  10. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    Adam Lee did beat Styslinger in their first meeting.

    Down the stretch it looks like Mac is Virginia's most vulnerable player.
     
  11. WF_Fan

    WF_Fan New User

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    and you would also have a 1-0 head to head record going into that nadal match?
     
  12. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    yeah I think only one poster here could do that and he's a Texas fan(kinda)
     
  13. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    Hey Wake Fan what did you make of Prabhakar obviously reaching over the net to hit a shot vs Harrington and then lose it when the ump called it? To the point of standing on the bottom step and shaking the handles of the umpire's chair?
     
  14. WF_Fan

    WF_Fan New User

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    Was not in attendance for that. Prabhakar is generally a classy player so it could've been a bad call or heat of the moment.
     
  15. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    we're talking about how close one is to winning - two sets away is where you start a match - and where your wake boy still was against mac when the match ended

    sorry, thought i could make my point with humor, but i guess it's safer to spell it out for you
     
  16. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    oh, thought you might be the guy who came and screamed "Go Wake" every once in a while and clapped louder than anyone I have ever heard clap.


    I think Amogh's reaction was the culmination of several match interruptions due to Bresky leading Amogh to think he was getting screwed.
     
  17. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    this is all tangential - we're talking how close they were to another point. on. that. day.

    historical crap doesn't score points that day. losing a set certainly brings you no closer. he was two. full. sets. away.

    aright, good luck in NCAAs, sort of a win win for me if you beat UGA anyway since i love seeing SEC teams go down
     
  18. WF_Fan

    WF_Fan New User

    Joined:
    Apr 26, 2013
    Messages:
    8
    Clemson_tennis-- No wasnt me... do you agree with mikej? i respect your opinion more because it usually isn't followed with some strange comment about you having the same chance in two sets against nadal as Adam Lee would have against Styslinger. Also, do you agree with the statement of no one believing wf is a top team?
     
  19. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    this is cute - clemson, please give his spirits a lift
     
  20. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    I don't think Wake is an elite team. I think they are capable of a big performance sometimes like also vs Tennessee this year but Ho could not finish it. But they also lost to UNC and VCU this year. The win over Duke was huge but as Duke has shown these last two years is that they can be out-fought if the going gets tough against an underdog. (UNC last year, Illinois,Cal and Wake this year).

    Unlucky draw in the tournament.
     
  21. Nostradamus

    Nostradamus G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Nov 30, 2011
    Messages:
    13,266
    Location:
    In the future
    Don't call me Freddie kruger. that is too scary. and LSU is no match. they are pretenders.
     
  22. Automator

    Automator Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2010
    Messages:
    528
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    Depends on what your definition of top team is.

    You have to understand that tennis is a highly stratified sport, unlike basketball or football. In basketball or football, a team ranked between 20 and 25 has a decent shot at beating a Top 5 team. They'll probably lose more often than win, but they have a puncher's chance. This is simply not the case in tennis, where a team ranked 20 to 25 has pretty much no chance of beating a top 5 team. Upsets like that are exceedingly rare, so rare that I cannot recall one.

    Wake beating Duke was a huge upset, but that doesn't mean the Deacs were suddenly good enough to beat Virginia. Duke hasn't been good enough to beat Virginia for the last seven years. They've come very close, but they haven't won since the 2006 ACC Tournament final. Beating Duke is one thing (it's not easy for any other ACC team to do it, but it obviously can be done), beating Virginia is another matter entirely (no ACC team has been able to do it for seven years, 106 straight matches).
     
  23. ga tennis

    ga tennis Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,710
    It hurts me to say this but i think this is Virginias year.
     
  24. andfor

    andfor Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 16, 2004
    Messages:
    4,885
    Good overview on the hierarchy of college tennis Automator. The dubs point and 6 singles matches dual format prevents upsets from happening often.

    Agree with you ga tennis. It UVA's title to lose. Still, the pressure they will face will be fun to follow and see if they can finally navigate it.
     
  25. Automator

    Automator Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2010
    Messages:
    528
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    By my count, this is the third time it's been "our year". I'm not celebrating until the Cavaliers have 4 points in the final.
     
  26. ClarkC

    ClarkC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2008
    Messages:
    3,773
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    I think you meant this in the context of the NCAA tournament, rather than throughout the season. Sometimes a team starts out #5 in January because they were good last year, and the pollsters have refused to discount them due to graduations. A #20 team could certainly beat them.

    Early in the season, you also have interesting results when a team has not yet gotten it together, has not adjusted to playing outdoors as early as an opponent from a different climate, has not adjusted to playing indoors yet, etc. #25 Illinois beat #5 Duke in a very early match just this year. But, by the time the NCAA tournament starts in May, a healthy #5 would be playing a #25 in an NCAA regional final hosted on the courts of the #5 team, and as you said, I don't remember a top 5 team failing to make the final 16.
     
  27. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    I don't know if the players and coaches are just saying cliche things for the camera but it seems like not many know how the rankings and seeings work. Players from Tennessee, Ole Miss and Baylor expressed concern over maybe not hosting. Drake players said they were worried they would not get in the field. Illinois thought they had a chance to host.
     
  28. socaltennnis

    socaltennnis Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 1, 2008
    Messages:
    188
    Ive heard that when a seeded team doesn't get to host, its because they might either have had some kind of infraction against them or a quality measure determined that they were not good hosts in years prior.
     
  29. wrxinsc

    wrxinsc Professional

    Joined:
    Jul 10, 2010
    Messages:
    1,400
    Location:
    Cackalacky South
    Don't know a lot about NCAA tennis but I do have a couple of local connections 'playing'. So rooting for them.

    Harrison Richmond, from my town, plays for UVA. That is an easy homer choice.

    And a player in league tennis with me coaches CCU. They get Duke in the first round. Chris's team won the Big South Tourney for an automatic bid.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2013
  30. ga tennis

    ga tennis Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,710
    I just dont see anyone beating Virginias top 3. If Virginia wins the doubles point no one in the country will beat them. I LOVE MY DAWGS but they really overachieved this year.
     
  31. ga tennis

    ga tennis Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,710
    I also dont see any SEC teams losing first round.
     
  32. JLyon

    JLyon Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2007
    Messages:
    3,378
    Location:
    AR
    South Carolina has a tough in UNC-Wilmington
    Vandy is so streaky ETSU could keep it close
    Bama could have issues with USD
    LSU will have hands full with Stanford

    Of the 4 likely see LSU losing a tight one.
     
  33. ga tennis

    ga tennis Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2010
    Messages:
    1,710
    Clemson Tennis i think your boys got a good chance to win its first 3 matches.
     
  34. ClarkC

    ClarkC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2008
    Messages:
    3,773
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    A little history of how seeds have done:

    2003: Top 5 seeds all made the QFs. Seven of the eight seeds made the QFs; #8 seed was beaten in the round of 16. Upsets mostly happened between seeds in the QFs, as 1,5,6,7 were the four semifinalists.

    2004: #5 Duke was upset 4-3 by Clemson in the regional final (presumably at Durham). The four semifinalists were 1-2-3-4 seeds.

    2005: Top 5 made the round of 16. You can get good links to the regional results here, but the draw link there is stale.

    2006: Same links problem here. Regional results show that the top 5 made the round of 16.

    2007: Top 5 made the round of 16. Semifinalists were 1-3-4-10, as #10 Illinois upset #2 Ohio State in the QFs.

    2008: Same links problem here. Top 5 made the QFs. 1-3-4-7 made the semis, with #7 Texas beating #2 Ohio State in the QFs.

    2009: Top 5 made round of 16. #5 Tennessee was upset by Texas in the round of 16; the other four won.

    2010: Top 5 made the round of 16. Then #3 Texas was upset by Oklahoma, while the other four won.

    2011: Top 5 seeds made round of 16.

    Looks like one top 5 team in a decade failed to make the final 16: #5 Duke in 2004.

    I will edit this in a while. Tired of waiting for a page to load at the horrible NCAA web site, which is also a treasure trove of stale links and results pages that have no seed numbers.
     
  35. mikej

    mikej Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2004
    Messages:
    2,385
    haha, seemingly duke is the answer to every trivia question involving rare upsets, grrrrrr
     
  36. matchplay

    matchplay Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2011
    Messages:
    147
    that's been the thought for quite a few years, hasn't it?
     
  37. SoCal10s

    SoCal10s Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 5, 2008
    Messages:
    2,778
    so year after Virginia has been the favorite to win... so what happens ? :confused:

    it's like watching the Lakers the past few years ... hsit happens ...
     
  38. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    That 2004 Clemson team is still emblazoned all over the tennis center at Clemson. Was unranked in April and then ended up making the elite 8. Nathan Thompson and brothers, Jarmaine Jenkins, Clement Reix and company.
     
  39. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    KU Singh could beat jenkins. But I give UGA little shot of beating UVA.
     
  40. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Boise State is good but also not the strongest 3 seed. I do like our matchup with Tennessee a lot. And if we beat Tennessee than it's certainly possible to beat Mississippi State. We will see.
     
  41. Kirijax

    Kirijax Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,854
    You got a good draw, Clemson! I'd be happy with a first rounder vs. any of the top 4 seeds if it meant we got in but oh well. Maybe next year.
     
  42. Art Rust Jr

    Art Rust Jr Rookie

    Joined:
    May 9, 2012
    Messages:
    109
    Thanks for the data. I was wondering, and I'd have to think it's incredibly rare on both the men's and women's side (probably even more so for the women), but how many top seeds, if any, have lost in the opening round? Meaning a four seed knocking off a one seed at any of the sixteen opening round sites.
     
  43. Vicious Vik

    Vicious Vik Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2011
    Messages:
    619
    I hope Virginia does not win it. That would be too funny.
     
  44. Automator

    Automator Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2010
    Messages:
    528
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    After beating Texas, everything is gravy this year.
     
  45. TopDawg

    TopDawg Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2010
    Messages:
    9,474
    Location:
    Chesterfield, MO
    I'd be very surprised if a 4 seed has ever beat a 1 - heck I'd be surprised if a 4 got as close as 4-2 against a 1. If I get a chance I'll do some digging unless someone else beats me to it.
     
  46. ClarkC

    ClarkC Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2008
    Messages:
    3,773
    Location:
    Charlottesville, VA
    Stuff like Robert Farah and Steve Johnson are what happened. If they are still eligible to play in the NCAAs this year for USC, then Virginia will have to wait another year for a shot at the title. If not, Virginia has a great shot right now.
     
  47. Clemson_tennis

    Clemson_tennis Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2011
    Messages:
    5,440
    Location:
    San Antonio/Austin
    San Diego got in over cross-town rival San Diego State by .07 points. wow
     
  48. B1G Tennis

    B1G Tennis New User

    Joined:
    May 13, 2012
    Messages:
    88
    I think UCLA and Ohio State could both take two out of three from Virginia. Luckily for Virginia, they'll only have to play one of those two (at most) and they'll likely be exhausted from tough semis and quarters. It's a great bracket for the Cavaliers.
     
  49. Kirijax

    Kirijax Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2012
    Messages:
    1,854
    Cavaliers, your table is ready.
     
  50. tennishmang

    tennishmang New User

    Joined:
    Feb 28, 2012
    Messages:
    33
    the day off after quarterfinals will help a ton for the winner of the USC/Ohio St match that'll be a really physical battle and help offset any fatigue. I don't see it being that big an issue unless weather balloons into the mid 80s or 90s.

    back when the tournament used to only have a day off after rnd of 16 then play quarter semis finals back to back to back did we worry so much about fatigue. these guys are pretty darn fit and have full training staffs with them. they get pedialyte, IV fluids, you name it to stay hydrated.
     

Share This Page