2013 Race to #1

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by FEDERERNADAL13, Jan 27, 2013.

  1. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    Alright guys, now that the first major of the year is in the books, it's time to look at all of the ranking points and see what might happen at each stage of the year! This will be a comparison between Djokovic, Federer, and Murray, because Rafa was out for 6 months last year, and as a result, would make it hard to predict how he'll fare.

    First, lets look at what's set in stone (points in January):


    Djokovic: 2000 points

    Federer: 720 points

    Murray: 1450

    Djokovic has built up a healthy lead in the race on Roger, and Murray has done his best to keep it close so far.

    Now, let's Look at Now to Roland Garros:


    Djokovic: 4120 points (Finals at RG, Win at Miami, finals at MC and Rome are the highlights)

    Federer: 4125 points (Win at IW, win at Madrid, win at Rotterdam and Dubai, semis at RG are the highlights)

    Murray: 1630 points (quarters at RG is the highlight)

    So, let's think about this. Fed is already behind Novak by a huge amount, and he's actually defending more points than Novak up to and including Roland Garros. So, Fed reaching #1 is not very likely around here.

    I can see Novak maintaining his numbers, it would be hard to improve but he could, it all depends on how Rafa does on clay I think.

    I can see Roger losing major points here, as many as 2000, because he has so many wins to defend.

    I can see Murray making major gains here, mainly because he has almost zero points to defend at IW and Miami, and a win here could really cut in to the Djok-Fed lead over him. Better clay results would really help too.

    Now, Let's Check out the RG-SW19 points:


    Djokovic: 990 points (semis at SW19 is the highlight)

    Federer: 2600 (Win at Wimby and final at Olympics are the highlights)

    Murray: 1950 (win at olympics and final at Wimby are the higlights)

    So, once again, Fed has more points to defend than Novak. The Olympics points will drop off, which will affect Murray and Rog more than Novak. Roger needs to win Wimbledon to not lose major points here, and the same can be said for Murray. And improvement at wimby by Novak will stretch his lead.

    SW19-USO

    Djokovic: 2800 points: (USO final, Canada win, Cincy Final)

    Fed: 1360 points: (Cincy win, USO quarters)

    Murray: 2180 points: (USO win)

    This is where Novak won #1 last year, from after Wimby to the end of the year. Novak has to play near perfectly in this stretch to keep all his points, but then again, there aren't as many available here, so even if Rog or Murray win everything Nole could still be #1 by a good margin.

    Roger winning the USO would really boost his ranking, as well as playing the Roger's cup. Defending Cincy would really help as well

    Murray can easily improve on his summer HC events other than USO, but he'll be hard-pressed to defend his USO.

    USO-End of the year

    Djokovic: 3010 points (Win in Shanghai, win at Beijing, and of course the WTF win)

    Federer: 1460 points (final at WTF is the highlight)

    Murray: 1090 points (finals at shanghai is the highlight)

    So, once again, the end of the season is why Djokovic is currently #1 over Federer, since he has a big lead (3000ish points) on Roger. If Fed wins Shanghai, Paris, and the WTF in similar fashion to 2011, he could gain major ground. Murray too can improve his results here.

    Conclusion:

    2013 could be an interesting year for the rankings. The first half of the year will be where Murray can make up a lot of ground, and then the second half of the year is where Roger could make up ground. Novak has to defend a lot, but he's up around 3000 points to start the year, so he's allowed to have a few bad tourneys.

    If Roger or Andy want to be #1, they don't have that same luxury.

    What do you guys see happening to the rankings in 2013?
     
    Last edited: Jan 27, 2013
    #1
  2. tennisaddict

    tennisaddict G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2009
    Messages:
    14,217
    I see
    Djokovic
    ..
    ..
    Murray
    ..
    ..
    ..
    Federer
    ...
    ...
    Nadal
    ..
    ..
    ..
    ..
    Ferrer
     
    #2
  3. underground

    underground Legend

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2012
    Messages:
    6,909
    Basically if Fed manages to keep close to Djokovic in the rankings he has a higher chance of snatching the YE#1 than last year, just like Djokovic did in 2012.
     
    #3
  4. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    But Fed has to defend a LOT before the summer hard courts, so it's pretty bleak with his schedule.

    Murray can do major damage.

    Rafa obviously can.

    Roger's gonna have to work for #2, let alone #1 :(.

    But, a French open and Wimbledon title would certainty help ;)
     
    #4
  5. Terenigma

    Terenigma Legend

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2012
    Messages:
    5,924
    I still see djokovic #1 at the end of the year because he's stronger than murray on clay and Federer has too much to defend to get close to him.

    Murray will be 2nd due to the fact aside from his big wins, he doesnt have that many points to defend and can certainly improve on alot of them, especially IF he does well on clay.

    Federer will be 3rd as he has ALOT of points to defend and i dont see him defending many of them in comparison to murray who can improve on most of his.

    Nadal will retake his 4th from ferrer due to him being a beast on clay but he wont be catching the top 3 just yet.

    Thats my opinion.
     
    #5
  6. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    I think this is a fair prediction. Fed may hang on to #2 and surprise us though :)
     
    #6
  7. SwankPeRFection

    SwankPeRFection Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 30, 2012
    Messages:
    1,509
    Nadal will fall from #4.
     
    #7
  8. RF20Lennon

    RF20Lennon Legend

    Joined:
    May 2, 2011
    Messages:
    7,202
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    already has.
     
    #8
  9. jwjh

    jwjh Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 15, 2010
    Messages:
    3,330
    We all know Featherer loves trolling Murray like the one time in 2011 when Murray almost finished the year as no.3.
     
    #9
  10. CDNguy87

    CDNguy87 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    1,555
    I think you omitted Murray's 600 points from making the Miami final.
     
    #10
  11. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2006
    Messages:
    3,374
    Federer will start to look rear view mirror, Tsonga, Berdych.

    If they start beating Federer more frequently, especially 2nd half of this year,
    he might drop out of top 4 this year.
     
    #11
  12. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,959
    Location:
    New York
    It is quite satisfying to have a clear cut #1: slam holder, WTF holder, master holder. No more possible argument about "real" #1, just like it should be.
     
    #12
  13. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    Fixed. Thanks :)
     
    #13
  14. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    For No.1vak to end #1, I think he needs to:

    -Maintain his points, no one's gonna get 13000 points if he has them all
    -Win one other big tourney or get to the finals of 2 others (e.g. Win RG or WTF, or finals at both)

    For Fed to end #1, I think he needs to:

    -Win 1 or more Grand slam events
    -Defend at least 4 of 6 titles from last year
    -Improve his results from the Summer Hard court season and season's end
    -Win the WTF

    For Murray to end #1, I think he'll need to:

    -Defend his midseason points
    -Improve his results in the clay swing and the after USO swing

    As you guys can see, Fed has the toughest road to #1, by virtue of his smaller schedule and many tourney wins last year. Murray will need to improve on clay to move up, there are just too many points up for grabs there to just sit out the season. Novak just needs to keep doing what he's doing and he'll be fine.
     
    #14
  15. Beryl

    Beryl Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2011
    Messages:
    1,983
    What? Defending has nothing to do with year end #1.

    Djokovic has the early lead in the race because of his AO win, but there's still 10 months of tennis to be played, so anybody on tour still has a shot at year end #1. Everyone is within 2000 points of Novak, and there's still 18500+ points on the table to be earned. If Nadal finds form relatively quickly, he can still be YE#1 as well.

    Talking about YE#1 is premature, but the rankings during the year will be interesting. Djokovic is guaranteed #1 until Monte Carlo and, unless Fed wins everything and Nole doesn't play at all, will more than likely keep #1 until RG. Until then, the #2 ranking will be in play with Fed and Murray vying for it, and the #4 ranking at RG will be on the line, still in the hands of Ferrer, but Nadal eager to take it back if David has a bad stretch.
     
    #15
  16. kaku

    kaku Professional

    Joined:
    Nov 16, 2011
    Messages:
    1,137
    Indian Wells is key for Murray
     
    #16
  17. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    It's never too early to talk about YE #1!

    I agree though, the whole Murray vs Fed for #2 will shape all of the grand slams this year, especially if the draw will play as big a part of Roger's chances.

    Do you guys think Fed will be seeded #1 for Wimby?
     
    #17
  18. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,959
    Location:
    New York
    I expect Fed to lose points. I doubt he's gonna defend his Rotterdam, Dubai, IW, Madrid and W titles. The only 2 events where he could gain a lot of points are Miami and M-C and he's not playing them. Murray won nothing last year until July, so he could gain a bit. Nadal is a huge question mark. I expect Djoko and Murray to become #1 and #2 at some point in 2013 and Nadal to pass Fed if his form is same as before, which is a big if of course.
    ETA: the problem for Murray is the same as always: being more competitive on clay. Not sure if he'll ever manage that. Serve improvement is not gonna help him on that surface and I don't see much difference in terms of movement.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2013
    #18
  19. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,571
    I have more chance of a threesome with Kate and Pippa.

    I rarely make absolutist statements, but I think I can say with some certainty that Roger will not be seeded 1 @ SW19 - even with the grass points weightings.
     
    #19
  20. DeShaun

    DeShaun Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 22, 2010
    Messages:
    2,837
    Andy matches up favorably against Roger on any surface now.
    Novak and Roger will be on opposite sides of every draw until further notice, to allow for the final that would make promoters the most money.

    One question I have is, which finals pairing Novak-Rafa, or Rafa-Fed would make promoters the most money?

    If Rafa-Fed, Andy would likely reach several finals this year, even after Rafa returned.
    Of those, Andy would likely win a few. I am rooting for him you see to grab the number 1 ranking for a short period right at the end of this year, but I don't know if that is even mathematically possible.
     
    #20
  21. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,959
    Location:
    New York
    Nobody cares about Rafa/Fed anymore. They would want to get a Rafa/Djoko but that's assuming Rafa gets back to his best level and that the draws are not random, which they're supposed to be. In 2011 and 1st half of 2012, most finals were Nadal/Djoko ones.
     
    #21
  22. steenkash

    steenkash Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2012
    Messages:
    250
    Rafa-Novak matches are one of the only 6 hour tennis matches I am prepared to watch.
     
    #22
  23. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2011
    Messages:
    852
    Location:
    Cambridge, UK
    I believe the grass formula is current ranking + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of best grass result the year before.

    That means the grass points alone would be:

    Djokovic: 270 (Olympic SF) + 720 (Wimbledon SF) + 1500 (Wimbledon W 2011) = 2490
    Federer: 450 (Olympic F) + 2000 (Olympic W) + 150 (Halle F) + 270 (Wimbledon QF 2011) = 2870

    So Federer is 380 grass points ahead. I'm not sure if the Olympics is counted, and if it isn't then he is only 200 ahead. Therefore it will make little difference to their relative rankings; Federer would need to be on the brink of overtaking Djokovic, which would mean winning Roland Garros or everything else on clay.

    Just to throw in Murray's stats, he's: 750 (Olympics W) + 1200 (Wimbledon F) + 540 (Wimbledon SF 2011) = 2490 - exactly the same as Djokovic, so he stands a decent chance of being seeded #2... so long as the Olympics are counted.
     
    #23
  24. Warmaster

    Warmaster Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 20, 2012
    Messages:
    3,722
    Imagine Murray being #2 just before Wimbledon, 100 points ahead of Federer. What will they do? :)
     
    #24
  25. egn

    egn Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2008
    Messages:
    4,973
    Murray has a good chance I feel this year, hoping to see him make a push for number 1. He deserves it.
     
    #25
  26. forzamilan90

    forzamilan90 Legend

    Joined:
    Mar 10, 2010
    Messages:
    5,511
    F*** it, Federer to end the year at #1 8)
     
    #26
  27. CDNguy87

    CDNguy87 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Aug 27, 2009
    Messages:
    1,555
    If Rafa comes back strong, the race to #1 could be very interesting. However, if Rafa is weak, Djokovic in all likelihood wins most clay events, as he was unbeaten on red clay last year vs. everyone except Nadal. When combined with his consistency on hard courts (and complete dominance over slow outdoor HCs), winning most of the big clay events (say 2-3 M1000s or at least 1 M1000 + RG) would almost certainly guarantee him YE #1 barring injury.

    Murray really needs Rafa to come back strong and dominate the clay season in order to have any chance at YE #1. If that happens, there could be a 3-4 way split of the major events and therefore allow someone like Murray to sneak in there with a Slam win and some good M1000 results (similar to what Fed almost did last year).

    Rafa missing the AO and probably having mediocore results at the start of his return for the M1000 HC events in IW/Miami pretty much rules him out for #1, as Novak will probably have a lead over him of 3,000+ points in the race by the end of March (assuming Novak wins at least one of IW/Miami and goes deep in the other). Even if Rafa dominates on clay again, Novak will still probably lead the race after RG (since he probably makes the final of most clay events, depending on how early he draws Nadal) and there's no way Nadal earns more points in the post-FO grass/hard-court season than Novak.

    At this point, I don't think Fed really desires nor realistically expects himself to compete for YE #1. He would have to make the committment to smaller tourneys he made last year to even have a chance, and given his age and current schedule, he's clearly decided (correctly in my view) that he's better off just focusing his efforts on winning Slams and remaining in the Top 4.

    My prediction for YE Rankings:

    1) Djokovic
    2) Murray
    3) Nadal
    4) Federer

    Reverse 3 and 4 if Rafa's recovery is delayed or incomplete by the time the clay season starts.
     
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2013
    #27
  28. Skarter

    Skarter New User

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2013
    Messages:
    58
    Agree with what CDNguy87 said.

    If rafa doesn't take out Novak during the clay part of the season, YE1 is his.

    Two clay masters + at least a RG final for Djokovic and he's chances of finishing the season on top again are at 85% IMO.
     
    #28
  29. Masayoshi

    Masayoshi Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2012
    Messages:
    527
    Does anyone really care about year end #1? It's basically just an arbitrary point in time for a rankings check, no?
     
    #29
  30. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2012
    Messages:
    2,808
    Isn't that a twisted way of saying nobody cares about Federer, period?
     
    #30
  31. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2006
    Messages:
    3,374
    Federer isn't exactly losing ground on clay court season against Djokovic and Murray.

    It's the hard court surfaces on which he is losing against Djokovic and Murray.

    The clay and grass, the green clay, two slow organic surfaces, are still Nadal
    and Federer's. They are being challenged but still own the two slow surfaces.
     
    #31
  32. Prisoner of Birth

    Prisoner of Birth Banned

    Joined:
    Aug 21, 2012
    Messages:
    2,808
    Grass isn't slow. You're just jumping on the bandwagon because you think it makes you look cool.
     
    #32
  33. tennis_badger

    tennis_badger Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2013
    Messages:
    222
    i see joker stay at no 1 comfortably, murray at no 2 followed closely by roger on no 3 and rafa no 4, i expect a tight race between murray, roger and rafa.
     
    #33
  34. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    See, I agree that people like Rafa/Djoko, but I think the people still would very much like to see Rafa/Fed matches. Just look at TTW for example, when Rafa plays Roger threads with 40,000 posts are created.

    Also, people like seeing Roger vs. Novak as well, as their shotmaking as pretty nice to see.

    Its not all about Rafa vs. Novak ;)
     
    #34
  35. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2009
    Messages:
    14,571
    The thing you are missing is the 'current ranking points' part of the formula.

    The formula is current ranking points (at the time of seeding) + 100% of last year's grass points + 75% of the previous year's grass points.

    So while Roger might gain a few hundred points on the grass points parts of the formula, but the fact that he is 2700 points behind Novak with roughly the same points to defend before Wimbledon makes that all a bit moot.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2013
    #35
  36. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2006
    Messages:
    3,374
    I think it's slower than US Open. And in its 2nd week, it is even slower.

    If Federer can do well on these organic surfaces, clay and grass (and Nadal doesn't comeback strong this year),
    Federer can contend for #1 again, I think.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2013
    #36
  37. Grgisme

    Grgisme Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2013
    Messages:
    254
    Location:
    Belgrade, Serbia
    I think Novak will be no.1 for the entire year. But it also depends on Andy's form on hard court and clay. We'll see.
     
    #37
  38. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,423
    What do you guys think Rafa will do? Get back to usual results or be some other version of Rafa?
     
    #38
  39. Grgisme

    Grgisme Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 30, 2013
    Messages:
    254
    Location:
    Belgrade, Serbia
    I think he won't be the same until USO
     
    #39
  40. Cosmic_Colin

    Cosmic_Colin Professional

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2011
    Messages:
    852
    Location:
    Cambridge, UK
    Sorry, I only just saw this response. I was deliberately excluding the current ranking points because we don't know what they will be. I was just working out what Federer's 'grass advantage' was.

    I concluded that it was very small, so he'd need to be neck and neck, or ahead or Novak to be seeded #1... which is extremely unlikely.

    So we're probably looking at 1)Djokovic 2)Federer 3)Murray as the top seeds, possibly swapping Federer and Murray as the latter has more opportunity to gain points over the next few months.
     
    #40
  41. tennisdad65

    tennisdad65 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 29, 2008
    Messages:
    3,014
    Location:
    somewhere in calif
    then nadal will get injured again and start the cycle.. it is only gonna get harder on his body from here on.
     
    #41
  42. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,959
    Location:
    New York
    Nadal is gonna get lots of points on clay as usual. The question marks for him are gonna be grass and hard. The competition on hard is pretty steep, so he NEEDS to do well at Wimbledon to have a shot at the #1 ranking.
     
    #42
  43. PseudoFed

    PseudoFed Banned

    Joined:
    Nov 24, 2012
    Messages:
    25
    Rafa missing AO to do some protectings of his h2h against me means he will not do any becomings of #1 this year. You're welcome.
     
    #43
  44. Vrad

    Vrad Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Aug 25, 2012
    Messages:
    552
    This. Defending points is irrelevant when considering YE #1. It is only useful if you want to know who will be #1 at certain points during the year.

    If you want to consider YE #1, just look at the # of points already racked up in 2013, and the tournaments left to be played, since all of 2012 points will drop off the YE ranking anyways.
     
    #44
  45. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,959
    Location:
    New York
    :):):)
    PseudoFed for the win!!!
     
    #45
  46. Rocky89

    Rocky89 Professional

    Joined:
    May 8, 2012
    Messages:
    816
    Location:
    Australia
    He doesn't have many points to gain except for the golden swing and Madrid. He has a lot of points to defend during the clay season so he's more likely to lose points this year.
     
    #46
  47. The_Order

    The_Order Legend

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    7,042
    Rafa will have his chance to gain a lot of points later in the season once Wimbledon starts.

    If he gets back to form and doesn't have any injury problems, he could be top 2 after next AO.
     
    #47
  48. veroniquem

    veroniquem Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2008
    Messages:
    30,959
    Location:
    New York

    I expect him to defend his clay points but, sure, that's not what could give him top ranking back. That's why I said Wimbledon is gonna be crucial.
     
    #48
  49. ledwix

    ledwix Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2010
    Messages:
    3,114
    Grass is still pretty fast at the service lines. The yellow at the back of the court is probably slow, but as far as serving is concerned, aces are always still way higher than in other events.

    And yeah, AO14 seems like the next time it is theoretically possible for Nadal to become #1. Djokovic probably has another full year in the bag honestly. Federer's schedule shows that ranking is not a top priority for him and Murray is too small a factor on clay.
     
    #49
  50. axel89

    axel89 Banned

    Joined:
    Feb 13, 2012
    Messages:
    1,161
    nice banned in 2 days of posting
     
    #50

Share This Page