"Aggregation of Marginal Gains"

Discussion in 'Tennis Tips/Instruction' started by Ash_Smith, Jan 8, 2013.

  1. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    The "aggregation of marginal gains" is a bit of a buzz-phrase in British sport at the moment due to the immense success of British Cycling and the approach of their PD Sir Dave Brailsford to maximise improvement by making as many improvements, no matter how minor, as possible.

    We have adopted "aggregation of marginal gains within our programme as a kind of mantra (as have many performance sports in the UK), but it has got me thinking...

    Aggregation of marginal gains is an excellent philosophy when you have already achieved your major gains - in other words, when you have world class basics you can look for the marginal gains on top.

    So, what are the World Class Basics a tennis player should have before they seek marginal gains?!?!?

    To keep it interesting (and manageable!) I will give you 5 slots for your World Class Basics! Please also indicate whether you are a tennis player, coach, educator, whatever as I will be interested to see if different sub groups have a different opinion!

    Over to you...

    Cheers

    Oops - forgot my five...

    1) Effective first serve (high percentage 65+)
    2) Ability to remain at least neutral off the second serve
    3) 80% trading ball (rally ball) of both sides
    4) Movement efficient enough to protect contact point
    5) Ability to take time away from opponent (i.e hit early mid-court ball)

    *I reserve the right to edit this list as I see fit and change my mind/have my mind changed :D
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2013
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  2. 5263

    5263 G.O.A.T.

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    Strongly agree with the way you have framed the topic.
    more later
     
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  3. julian

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    Some of efforts very useful

    Some of efforts very useful of "Marginal Gains" especially keeping a body warm
     
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  4. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    Ash what kind of stuff do you expect to put in the 5 slots?

    e.g. analyzing ATP 2012 data, you get correlation of each stat to the top 100 ranking -

    1st Srv 1st Srv w 2nd srv w srv gm w bp won bp sv pts rtn 1 pts rtn 2 rtn gm wn
    0.06429448 0.522678196 0.614081536 0.650474016 0.248547356 0.536628334 0.349750106 0.288385001 0.38757496


    some of these are game based stats, some are points based.... just on points based alone, the sequences are

    2nd srv w
    1st srv w
    pts return 1st
    pts return 2nd

    so the marginal advantage should be gained in proportion to the correlation.

    or are you looking for something else.

    I am an rec trying to coaching own kids in tennis/golf.
     
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  5. maggmaster

    maggmaster Hall of Fame

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    I am a player who helps with clinics at my club, also a certified personal trainer and previous collegiate athlete.

    1. Footwork
    2. Serve Mechanics
    3. Grooved return
    4. Rally balls on both sides
    5. Approach shots on both sides.
     
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  6. WildVolley

    WildVolley Legend

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    World Class basics? That's a good question.

    I'm not sure how I should limit this, but I'll give a rough first pass:
    1) Continental-grip serve with decent racket drop.
    2) Unit turn on both sides.
    3) Topspin drives both sides.
    4) Continental grip volley.
    5) Split-step footwork.

    Those seem too general, but I have an idea in my mind about what I'm looking for. I mostly focus on visual patterns at this point. I'm looking for a certain general form (I use video) and then try to develop drills for the student to adapt to that form.

    I've coached high school tennis in the past and given lessons to friends and family. I've been a professional educator and am sort of a tennis fanatic.
     
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  7. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    just realised I forgot to add mine! Original post edited accordingly!
     
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  8. Ash_Smith

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    Whatever you think should be a world class basic skill!?!? There are no right answers (at least I don't think there are!!!). So from your stats analysis what 5 things does a player have to have/be able to do?
     
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  9. Ash_Smith

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    Good stuff! For footwork - what specifically about the footwork should be world class?

    Cheers
     
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  10. Ash_Smith

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    That's why I put a limit to 5 items/areas - my list would be miles long otherwise! I'm sure everybody will have a list of 5 things every player should be able to do, I'm wondering if it's possible to synthesise them into a sort of "Super 5"!
     
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  11. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    big first serve
    big 2nd serve

    all the other stuff are toss ups
     
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  12. Ash_Smith

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    ^^^define big :D
     
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  13. WildVolley

    WildVolley Legend

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    LOL!, I thought you were just arguing that the serve return (make that 2nd serve return) was the most important shot in the game (make that professional game)?
     
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  14. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    1st serve top 10

    13 Milos Raonic
    26 Jerzy Janowicz
    68 Gilles Muller
    22 Sam Querrey
    97 Ivo Karlovic
    2 Roger Federer
    14 John Isner
    27 Mardy Fish
    6 Tomas Berdych

    82%
    82%
    81%
    80%
    79%
    78%
    78%
    78%
    77%
    (top 100 average 71%)

    2nd serve top 10

    2 Roger Federer
    26 Jerzy Janowicz
    14 John Isner
    4 Rafael Nadal
    5 David Ferrer
    13 Milos Raonic
    1 Novak Djokovic
    20 Philipp Kohlschreiber
    10 Richard Gasquet
    96 Evgeny Donskoy

    60%
    57%
    57%
    57%
    57%
    56%
    56%
    56%
    56%
    56%
    (top 100 average 51%)
     
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  15. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    that was for the top 4... well, 3 out of the 4 rather.

    fed suffered in this department.
     
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  16. tennis_balla

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    The 'tweener, above all. The player has to be able to pull a 'tweener at will, even off a drop shot!

    :)
     
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  17. Ash_Smith

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    Okay, so you don't mean big you mean high %?

    Or is that points won % ? If so, why are the players with the highest points won % on their first serve relatively lowly ranked (with the exception of Rog and Berdych)??? :D
     
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  18. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    points won... interestingly, 1st serve %, almost have zero correlation to ranking.

    so the correlation values are -

    2nd srv w
    0.614081536

    1st Srv w
    0.522678196

    pts rtn 1
    0.349750106

    pts rtn 2
    0.288385001

    the low ranked guys topping the 1st srv won board probably are people like Dr. Ivo who suffer in other departments.

    I think the most surprising stat here is the severe asymmetry between 2nd srv and rtn 2..... you'd think that quite often the 2nd srv points start neutral (on average the server and the returner win 51% and 49% of them), so the 2 correlation values should be about the same.... but 0.614 vs. 0.288 is quite a big difference.

    the other thought is - this should be do-able at the amateur levels, you run some app and let parents or the bench guys collect stats, you can come up with customized training plan for each player pretty fast.
     
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  19. corbind

    corbind Professional

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    Forgive me but are the percentages of getting serves IN or WON?
     
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  20. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    won.........
     
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  21. tennis_balla

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    I would add to this the ability to neutralize an opponents serve and a good second serve return points won. Also, the ability to have a good transition game from defence to offence as all good pro's posses this.
     
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  22. Ash_Smith

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    ^^^You can't add Balla! I'm only letting you have 5 World Class Basics!!! What are you going to cut!!!

    Back on topic!
     
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  23. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    What does World Class mean? That it applies to word class tennis players only?

    Because for something like effective first serve, I don't see what is achieved by listing it without mentioning a level. My effective first serve is not effective against Djokovic. So that means I should treat everything else as marginal till my serve is effective against Djokovic?

    Or is it per level? That makes more sense. Solidify the 5 important skills for a particular level before taking on minor things. I can relate to that, having seen adult clinics where ladies want to be taught intricate doubles strategies but don't know that backhand grip is not the same as forehand.

    Or is it a third thing altogether (namely BS)? Because I have seen numerous such BS lists and approaches and methodologies come and go in management style over the years I have been a manager. A lot of buzz, a lot of training, tons of consultants making a buck, and then it fizzles out under the pressure of reality.
     
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  24. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    Well, I work at a world class level, so for me that's what it means - but it's all relative to the level at which you play or the player you teach is playing - so your point two is where you should pitch your list - now have at it! :)
     
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  25. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    I am now not sure that this kind of analysis is applicable to recreational play. The goals should be: injury prevention, effective strokes, enjoyment.

    Injury prevention means having reasonable technique to avoid injuries.

    Effective strokes means technique should not be glorified over winning, till the point of injury prevention. Recreational play is a dangerous land where good technique and winning are not necessarily coincident.

    Enjoyment of the game and strokes and feel of the ball should be the prime motivation, without which the activity will come to a stop soon, as I have seen in many people.
     
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  26. Timbo's hopeless slice

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    Sureshs... Oh, never mind.

    I actually agree with Ash's five basics from my perspective as a junior coach and Open tournament player.

    I do, however, believe these basics are applicable across all levels of tennis. (my 80% rally ball isn't as good as Djokovics but it's better than a 4.0s, see?)
     
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  27. dominikk1985

    dominikk1985 Legend

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    always factor in the opponent. a great return or serve is great but good is relative considering the strength of the opponent.

    a number of won points is a good way to start but you don't need to serve as well to win 80% of the points against isner or raonic then you need to do to win those points against ferrer or nole.

    same is true for the return, against a better server it is harder.

    training all those things is great but how good it really is only shows in matches against world class players.

    "Holding your serve in 80%" is not an absolute number like throwing the shot 70 feet or throw the baseball 96 but is always dependent on the opponent.

    still a good serve or return does help but it is not easy to really work towards quantifiable goals.
     
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  28. 5263

    5263 G.O.A.T.

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    I approach the instruction in a similar way and will try to make it fit in your basic
    5 format.

    1. Baseline rally shots, Second serve, and basic serve rtn, -basic skills to play
    and enjoy this game with most anyone even close to your level. core fundamentals of
    the game imo.

    2. Mid Court Attack shots- add this level to your game and you can not only play
    and mix it up with those near your level, but you can force the issue to some
    extent based on how well you do it. Includes slice along with drives.

    3. Finishing shots- 1st serves, close in Overheads & Volleys- with some of these
    skills, you can capitalize on your opportunities, earned and found.

    4. Agility/Fitness level to employ your game

    5. Mindset and context for how the game is played.

    4 & 5 are developed as I bring them thru 1, 2 & 3 in order related to proficiency,
    but all 5 are intro'd with some practice along the way.
    City Tennis Director, 20+ yrs instructing, coached my own 2 children to D1
    full rides with my 3rd ahead of their schedule. Work mostly with competing Jrs.
    a former college athlete, MA instructor, and Military pilot instructor TPS.
     
    Last edited: Jan 8, 2013
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  29. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    Yeah I always have to find something contrary to say
     
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  30. treblings

    treblings Hall of Fame

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    i´ll give it a try.
    i like the challenge, as it makes me think what it is i want to achieve.
    this is from a coaches standpoint, working with kids of different talents and ambition.

    the following points are maybe the foundation that i like to lay, on which they can build their game and not be limited in their development

    1 technical foundation which include the right grips for every stroke and
    biomechanically sound strokes that don´t lead to injuries
    2 tactical understanding of tennis as a game
    3 movement, with priorities on balance and efficiency, and also the tactical
    side of where to move
    4 mental aspects of the game, which cover a wide area. from the ability to
    handle pressure to the ability to handle your opponents. how to deal with
    bad days, and so on
    5 athletic development. again a wide area, which covers everything from
    cross-training in other ball sports to develop additional coordination
    abilities, to injury prevention and so on

    of course there is another way of answering your question.
    i could say, i want them to

    1 have an efficient first serve with a high percentage
    2 reliable second serve with the ability to hit with different spins and reliable
    placement
    3 return consistently and attack weak second serves
    4 be able to rally consistently and adapt to the playing style of their
    opponents
    5 be able to finish a point in different ways

    long post. i intend to come back to add or substract. in other words, it´s a work in progress:)
     
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  31. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    good stuff Trebs!

    Your first 5 is very general and essentially addresses the 4 performance factors (physical, technical, tactical and mental), which is to generic for where I am looking to go with this :) I am wondering if we can really dial down into specific skills!

    Your second list is more like it! :D
     
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  32. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    Good stuff! Although I'm pretty sure you've snuck more than 5 in there! :D
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2013
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  33. Relinquis

    Relinquis Hall of Fame

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    my non-pro, non-coach, non-world class, non-conformist list of 5:

    - 2nd serve with good enough placement, spin and pace (in that order) to use tactically, i.e. take opponent out wide, hit high to their backhand or keep them guessing.
    - Well developed topspin backhand. Most players will attack the backhand. Having a weapon backhand means that you will win tactically as their strategies break down. This also helps with return of serve %.
    - Bouncy* footwork when your opponent strikes the ball
    - Going back to the T** type positioning after strokes
    - inside-out drop shot that spins off-court from both wings.

    Rationale: These skills neutralise most of the cookie cutter baseline attack the backhand tactics that I see and will help players develop an all-court game imo. What do you guys think? I have 4 out of the 5 so far, for my level, working on my serve.

    * this is the appropriate scientific terminology.. trust me.
    ** the tennis equivalent of the squash positioning, neutralising angles of attack forcing your opponent to hit lower % shots, or give you a juicy ball in your strike zone.
     
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  34. treblings

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    thanks for the feedback:) clarifies it for me, what you look for
     
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  35. Timbo's hopeless slice

    Timbo's hopeless slice Hall of Fame

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    I know, and even knowing, I still fall for it every now and then.. :)
     
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  36. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    I am wondering if this would be a basic or a marginal gain:D
     
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  37. 5263

    5263 G.O.A.T.

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    Thanks Ash. I wasn't quite sure at what level you were trying to take this to,
    but I'm really liking the break down I use for 1, 2, & 3 for giving the player an
    idea on where they are and where they need to be. You can always improve on
    the various things inside the three groups, but until you are solid at each group,
    you are not a complete player.

    You can also evaluate your play day to day with those first 3 groups.
    Example- a player may say today they rallied well (#1) with the opponent, but
    could not execute well enough on the mid ct opportunities (#2) to win or earn the
    chance to get looks to finish (#3).
    Or another player may have rallied well (#1) and attacked mid ct well (#2),
    but struggled to finish despite some easy overhead and volley looks to putaway (#3).
    Even with that evaluation, this second player may have eecked out a win.
     
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  38. Relinquis

    Relinquis Hall of Fame

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    haha... well, it's not a basic shot (sidespin drop shot), but the gains are far from marginal ;)
     
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  39. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    Assuming the player has a basic game to start with:
    1. Second serve that enables the player to get an advantage in the point.
    2. First serve that is a weapon -many serves not returned at all.
    Having #1 enables #2. (Look what happens to Verdasco when he starts doubting his second serve)
    3. Block serve return that can be placed anywhere on the court (see Federer).
    4. Ability to take the ball on the rise effectively (enables court positioning)
    5. Ability to hit effectively on the run (defense to offense).
     
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  40. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    ^^^Cheers NLB - your thinking is not dissimilar to my own
     
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  41. NLBwell

    NLBwell Legend

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    I'm pleased to be in good company, then.
     
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  42. TomT

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    One might take the view that big gains are aggregations of marginal gains. This seems to me to be the way that basics are actually learned. Thus, consciously applying the philosophy of "aggregation of marginal gains" isn't precluded by lack of basic abilites for a certain level of play.

    In this view, your question becomes:
    That is, what should a player be able to do to compete at the world class level? To answer this question meaningfully, the answers should be formulated in terms of minimum requirements for speed, placement, etc., which will hopefully lead to some notion of Minimum Daily Adult Tennis Pro Requirements. :)

    Regarding first serve, my guess for the minimum placement requirement is the ability to serve, at will, to within a foot of any line. For speed, to serve at 110-114mph with 65% in, at 115-119mph with 60% in, and at 120+mph with 55% in. (all estimations refer to competition).

    To do this, the placement requirement is the same as that for the first serve. For topspin and kick serves, there has to be enough spin to bounce the ball out of the returner's comfort zone. Minimum speed, say, ~ 90mph.

    For rallying, I'd say that world class players have the ability to hit typical rally shots virtually indefinitely. What's the minimum pace for a typical or average world class rally shot to be able to stay in a point? Not sure. For placement, my guess is the ability to hit within two feet of any line at will.
     
    Last edited: Jan 12, 2013
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  43. Ash_Smith

    Ash_Smith Hall of Fame

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    In the context of British Cycling, where the phrase in relation to elite sport anyway, was coined, aggregation of marginal gains roughly translates to what else can we do on top of what we already have. Their track bikes, for example, were totally deconstructed part by part to see if each individual part could be improved in anyway. Even if only a 0.1% improvement was possible, it would be done as across many, many components, collectively these 0.1% gains could make a 0.001s difference on the track. Which could be the difference between a gold medal and a silver, or a medal and no medal. Many would not make a 0.1% improvement to a component, assuming that it would not have an impact. British Cycling did, but only after they had World Class Basics in place for everything.

    My point in relation to tennis was that (especially prevalent on here :D )players ofter loon to make tiny adjustments to stuff, "should I change string tension by 0.5%", "should I add 3.25gs of lead for a better swing weight", "if I change my racquet angle by 1 degree at contact will I get more spin" etc etc :D - it's totally the wrong way round! Develop world class basics first and then try the little things!

    Cheers

    P.S. As for Pro's being able to hit to within 2 feet of the lines at will - I think 5263 would have something to say about that :D !!!
     
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  44. luvforty

    luvforty Banned

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    Ash you wrong.

    developing world class basics takes 1000s hours of work.

    i can put 3.25 grams of lead tape on in 5min while sitting in my couch watching tv.
     
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  45. Ash_Smith

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    ^^^love this! :D

    If you add 3.25g's of lead and get 0.1% better, can you add 325g's of lead and do you get 10% better?!?! :D
     
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  46. TomT

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    I see. Ok. Thanks for the clarification. Also, I forgot to mention in my previous post that I'm a low level recreational player (~ 2 years playing experience) and lifelong tennis fan.

    So, do you think that (for world class level) being able to hit to within 2 feet of the lines at will is too close or not close enough? How about the minimum serve speeds I posted? Are they close?

    Thanks. Interesting thread.
     
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  47. 5263

    5263 G.O.A.T.

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    Maybe the sideline for dtl and for serve, but otherwise, I don't see where anyone
    can intentionally do it except when playing clearly weaker opponents.
    I also think for someone to believe this is the path to improvement, will lead
    to more frustration and occasional fleeting success.
    Ash, since you took note; any thoughts ?
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2013
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  48. Ash_Smith

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    ^^^Even on the possible examples you have posted above, I don't see it as an acceptable risk for all but the most elite players (and then against weak opposition) and the data I have collected of shot mapping shows that whilst shots may bounce inside 2 feet from the lines at pro level, the general pattern indicates that the target area was much safer in intent.

    cheers
     
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  49. treblings

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    video or you can´t:)
    inside 5 minutes, exactly 3.25g while sitting in your couch. tv or no tv, your choice:)
     
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  50. TomT

    TomT Hall of Fame

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    How about between 3 to 4 feet (at will) then? If there are minimum placement ability requirements (and surely there are), then we should be able to express that in numbers.

    It just occurred to me that the situation has to be normalized also. So, let's say 50 consecutive in shots, each within 3 feet of some line, hitting balls fed by a ball machine set at its highest speed.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2013
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