Ancic vs. Robredo

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by Tchocky, May 19, 2006.

?

Ancic vs. Robredo

Poll closed May 20, 2006.
  1. Tommy 2-0

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  2. Tommy 2-1

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  3. Mario 2-1

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  4. Mario 2-0

    0 vote(s)
    0.0%
  1. Tchocky

    Tchocky Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2005
    Messages:
    3,816
    Location:
    The OC
    Both of these guys were able to pull off the upset today and advance to the semis. They have only played once and that was 2 years ago on carpet with Mario winning in straight sets. I like Robredo in 3.
     
    #1
  2. Max G.

    Max G. Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2004
    Messages:
    4,380
    Well, Robredo over Ferrer wasn't really an upset - Robredo is ranked 8 spots above Ferrer, and they both like clay about equally.
     
    #2
  3. Shabazza

    Shabazza Legend

    Joined:
    Jan 12, 2006
    Messages:
    5,106
    I don't know, if Robredo doesn't win it in straight's I fency Mario's chances pretty high in a 3rd, considering his last matches.
     
    #3
  4. splink779

    splink779 Guest

    Mario cannot keep coming back in these long matches. I think he will run out of gas.
     
    #4
  5. diegaa

    diegaa Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2006
    Messages:
    4,091
    Location:
    somewhere in between
    Tommy is the guy here. In 2.
     
    #5
  6. oscar_2424

    oscar_2424 Legend

    Joined:
    Sep 5, 2005
    Messages:
    7,239
    Location:
    Hallandale, Florida
    I am thinking Robredo in 3 sets
     
    #6
  7. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2005
    Messages:
    12,540
    Location:
    Mar del Plata, Argentina
    Mario in three, just like the entire week :D
     
    #7
  8. Tchocky

    Tchocky Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2005
    Messages:
    3,816
    Location:
    The OC
    Robredo was +107 and Ferrer was -117 so Tommy was a slight underdog. Just because you're a higher seeded player than your opponent doesn't necessarily make you the favorite. Nadal will be the number 2 seed at the French Open but he is the favorite to win the title even if he is playing against Roger.
     
    #8
  9. Andres

    Andres G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2005
    Messages:
    12,540
    Location:
    Mar del Plata, Argentina
    Robredo won just a couple of mins ago, 7-5, 6-4 :cry:
     
    #9
  10. Max G.

    Max G. Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2004
    Messages:
    4,380
    Well, I'm curious as to where the bookies get their odds.

    Robredo is currently ranked 12th, Ferrer 20th.
    Coming in to Hamburg, Robredo's record for the year is 14-13 (7-3 on clay), Ferrer's is 15-12 (4-4 on clay); if anything, that's either close or slightly in Robredo's favor, since this is clay.
    Their head-to-head was 0-0, so that couldn't have factored in.
    Robredo has a better career win-loss record (and a better win-loss claycourt record).

    So I'd kind of like to know as to where those bookies got their odds - every factor seems to be in Robredo's favor, except the difference between overall records for the year (a difference of one match), which seems insignificant compared to even the difference in claycourt records.

    I'm tempted to say that the bookies just got the favorite wrong ;) but hey, there definitely could be something I'm missing here.

    ...well, after digging around a bit more, I found one more thing that could be in Ferrer's favor - his record during the claycourt season last year was better than Robredo's record during the claycourt season last year... (21-7 compared to 20-9, maybe I miscounted but it's something like that, and Ferrer did better in the TMS events)

    ...okay, that helps understand them a bit, I suppose...
     
    #10
  11. framebreaker

    framebreaker Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2006
    Messages:
    487
    this was the first time that i saw Ancic play. not impressed by his serve. this guy looks really tall and everybody was talking about his awesome serve. i think his serve is pretty weak and slow given his height advantage. just my opinion
     
    #11
  12. Moose Malloy

    Moose Malloy Legend

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2005
    Messages:
    7,924
    They make the odds themselves, its their job.

    There isn't much difference between +107 & -117, that's pretty much even money. With odds that close, if a lot of money came in for either player the odds could change.

    You're reading to much into it. Bookies only care about current form in handicapping today's match. Win-loss from a year ago isn't a factor.
    The odds were so close between the 2, I'd say the main factor that Robredo was an underdog was that he lost to Rusedski in Rome last week. That was one of the biggest upsets of the year according to the bookies. That would understandably cause them to think Robredo isn't currently playing that well & give Ferrer the edge. Also Ferrer won his 1st 3 matches in straight sets(beating arguably better players, he beat Ferrero in straight before playing Robredo) while Robredo had a 3 setter earlier in the event. Ferrer being the slight favorite makes sense to me.

    I don't think this is a factor in this case, but insider information has been known to skew the odds a bit in tennis(& all sports really)
    There was some match-fixing allegations in recent years. Some much lower ranked players got some ridiculous amounts of money coming in their favor.
    Its always been speculated that if a coach knows their guy is injured & someone gets a hold of that info, they can spread the word & the money coming in raises suspicions.

    Tennis would be a very easy sport to fix. Players can bet on themselves to lose & walk away with a lot more cash than winning a match, esp if they are a journeyman-type player who probably isn't good enough to make serious money anyway.
     
    #12
  13. wyutani

    wyutani Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2006
    Messages:
    4,760
    Location:
    hong kong
    geez~ robredo finnaly in a final huh? lolz~
     
    #13

Share This Page