Are Roddick's best days behind him?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by davey25, Dec 14, 2004.

  1. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I personally think Andy Roddick has already had the best part of his career in the year 2003. That year he won a grand slam, reached 3 slam semis, and went on a long winning streak in the summer, as well as ending the year #1. I dont think he will ever another year that he ends the year #1, Roger is too good, and there are too many players younger than him that will start coming up. I do think he will win a grand slam again at some point. He wont reach 3 slam semis in the same year again though, 2 perhaps, not 3. He also wont have a year with a long win streak like he had the summer of 2003. Thus I think his best days are already behind him, the year of 2003 were his best days.
    The question next year for him is not whether he can challenge Federer for the #1, that is out of reach for him, but whether he can hold onto his #2 with Hewitt, Safin, and perhaps several young players challenging for that with him.
     
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  2. @wright

    @wright Hall of Fame

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    You never know what will happen. Federer could have a career ending injury, or lose motivation, among other possible scenarios. With Fed out of the picture, Roddick is in dead heat with Hewitt/Safin? for #1. Then all of a sudden his situation doesn't look so futile. I think he is pretty much at a perfect crossroads though, deciding who will coach him or whether he will work with what got him here or continue to force himself to come in all the time. It will be interesting to see what will happen in '05 though. Go Fed!
     
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  3. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    The chances of Federer suffering a career-ending injury, or losing motivation, are extremly remote though. Hewitt and Safin are big threats to his ranking based on how they ended last year.
    Also younger players like Nadal and Ancic have the talent to pass him by before too long. They certainly have more improvement left in them than Andy probably does.
     
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  4. ty slothrop

    ty slothrop Semi-Pro

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    agree totally with @wright. i think rod tapered off in '04 but in really unquantifiable ways. his record and ranking are really comparable to '03, but I don't think he played as well.

    '05 just got a LOT more interesting. before this split, i think we had a good idea what to expect from rod - more of the same as the past year and a half, which is by all means pretty outstanding tennis, but i think gilbert took his game as high as he could. now we get to see how much rod really wants it. will he rise above what he could have done with gilbert, or regress to the first half of 2003?
     
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  5. david aames

    david aames Professional

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    His body has changed dramatically this year and it obviously requires adjustments to his game...

    If the whole coach situation signals one thing, it is that he is pretty damn confident despite the recent losses. He's gonna come to Melbourne with a lot to prove to a lot of people which I'm sure is a pretty exciting challenge for a guy like Roddick.
     
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  6. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    If he thinks he can get back to #1 he will end up going in a severe state of depression when he realizes he cant. A realistic goal for him is to try and stay #2, by no means an easy challenge for him, and win a slam if he gets lucky enough for Federer to lose before he plays Roddick in one of the 3 non-clay slams. 8)
     
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  7. NoBadMojo

    NoBadMojo G.O.A.T.

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    dont think these are displays of roddick confidence..i think they are moves of lack of confidence....changing coaches? maybe changing racquets? volleying like a bull in a china closet on the slow red clay? he had the look of bewildement like the deer in the headlights at the davis cup....brad wasnt there, and he was absolutely and totally clueless on the dirt. oz plays slow, wimby he has no chance i dont believe, french open forget, an outside chance at the us open if they get the courts just the right speed for him again, but that speed would also suit a johannson again or a gonzales and who knows who else who can upset him. i think they guy was already overacheiving and no coach is a miracle worker. roddick will certainly be a top10 this year and thats pretty darn good and where he belongs. and that is only provided he can continue to play balls out on every point and be mentally tough..playing at 100% on every point has got to take its toll
     
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  8. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    I agree it says he lacks confidence in the direction he is going at the moment. The gap between him and Federer is widenning not narrowing even though he has improved.

    If he thinks he can get someone to make him improve dramatically to surpass Federer, he will have a rude awakenning next year. If he is looking for someone to help improve his technique, he might be OK.
     
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  9. Camilio Pascual

    Camilio Pascual Hall of Fame

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    Exactly! Look at what happened in the WTA, the sisters were supposed to be winning everything for another 4 or 5 years, then what happens? Hingis must be kicking herself for the lost opportunity. Roger is great, but he is not immortal.
     
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  10. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    I don't think that's what Roddick wants. He wants to beat Federer, not just waiting for Federer to get injured.

    I don't think Hingis will kick herself either. Hingis had ankle surgeries three times in 14-month period, and twice on the same ankle. I don't think she has much regret on her career because of her own doing. People try to impose regret on her because she retired so early. Just like Jaeger, they don't have regret, because it is out of their control.
     
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  11. Datacipher

    Datacipher Banned

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    REMOTE? These things happen all the time. It's the rare exception who can sustain his brilliance and domination. However, I agree that Roger must come down because roddick cannot reach Fed's current level. Further, I posted a very long time ago, that I thought Roddick could become Jim Courier(after Sampras knocked him off the top)....although he still needs a few more GS to even reach Courier. Still, if Roddick stays healthy, like you say, a few more GS are quite viable even with Fed on top. Fed will still lose sometimes.
     
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  12. NoBadMojo

    NoBadMojo G.O.A.T.

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    there is a danger that if nobody steps up to challenge fed that the artist will lose some motivation and interest. at this point i think you could lump a whole bunch of players together who could vie for the number 1 spot if fed gets seriously injured or lacks motivation. behind the fed, i think the field gets pretty bunched together...roddick is no longer a decisive #2..
     
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  13. Marius_Hancu

    Marius_Hancu G.O.A.T.

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    Pretty important point. He changed more than any of the top 5.

    He's certainly bigger than 2 years ago, and unfortunately, it's not only muscle there .... just like Fish.
     
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  14. NoBadMojo

    NoBadMojo G.O.A.T.

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    actually he lost weight.
     
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  15. Marius_Hancu

    Marius_Hancu G.O.A.T.

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    That's also possible. Ayway I don't see the main challenge coming from his generation but from newcomers such as Nadal and Berdych (who beat him this year) or J. J.

    BTW, I agree with your assessment that Roddick might have overachieved already, but I feel something might have to do here with the coaching he had in his last junior years and first years as a senior (guess it was Benhabiles then), which was focussed only on his stronger areas.
     
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  16. Marius_Hancu

    Marius_Hancu G.O.A.T.

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    Perhaps in comparison with 1 yr ago, but not 2-3 yrs ago.
     
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  17. david aames

    david aames Professional

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    He gained muscle mass -- the fat is all gone.
    This is a recent picture:

    [​IMG]


     
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  18. mlee2

    mlee2 Rookie

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    Good point, putting it all out there surely shortened Jimmy Connor's career. :roll:

    God forbid, a pro actually putting in 100% into a match for his fans. What's next for that drama queen?
     
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  19. Marius_Hancu

    Marius_Hancu G.O.A.T.

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    I have to say, he looks good there.
     
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  20. NoBadMojo

    NoBadMojo G.O.A.T.

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    mlee3 has an uncanny way of appearing in posts citing a <possible> anomoly or <possible> exception to a basic truth.in this case it's connors..i think he might even agree that connors isnt a current player and that the game has changed since when connors played..maybe he will also agree the players could take more breaks back then, played alot more on clay and grass which are far less damaging surfaces than the brutal hard courts, and that connors was more the flashy showman making huge grunts as he blasted that serve at like 84mph and he really didnt have a style at all like that of the roddick
     
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  21. AndrewD

    AndrewD Legend

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    I'm pretty sure there will be improvement in Roddick's game but not necessarily in the short term. He's had a few losses, lost some confidence, changed coaches, maybe he'll even change his racquet. Funny thing is, a quick look around the message board shows that those are all the sorts of things most of us, the average players do.

    If he wants a quick kick up the bum he should just have a look at Hewitt. The assumption is that he's never going to be number one, wont consistently beat the big hitters and may never win another Slam. Still, he works hard so that, given the slightest chance, he'll be in there like the proverbial rat up a drainpipe.

    Perhaps, and its a mighty big perhaps, if he gets enough night matches at the Oz Open his confidence might come back. The surface does get spongy with the heat but late at night it can be quite slick and a lot quicker.

    Realistically though, given that its stinking hot here at the moment, we'll have a very hot summer and he'll be out second round in five sets to some journeyman on court two.
     
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  22. VamosRafa

    VamosRafa Hall of Fame

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    I don't know why anyone would think Andy wouldn't like a hot summer season in Melbourne?

    He grew up playing in the Florida weather, which is hot, hot, hot, and humid. He likes those conditions.

    In any event, I disagree that, absent injury, Andy is going to slink away into the sunset. He still is very competitive on all surfaces but clay, and he finished this year No. 2.

    Which means that only St. Fed finished ahead of him.

    And Fed is someone that the whole Tour has to deal with - not just Andy.

    And Andy does a pretty good job dealing with the rest of the Tour on non-clay surfaces.

    Federer isn't an Andy issue. Folks here seem to think if Andy can't compete with him, he should go away. But HELLO -- Andy and Rogi don't meet until the later rounds. And others folks (or should I say kids) are gunning for Federer, too.

    So if one of them knocks off Fed, maybe Andy has a chance.

    And Andy certainly has a chance in events in which Fed isn't a participant.

    He is the World No. 2 after all. :?

    And Fed is raising the bar, that Pete, Andre and others raised in the last generation. Great for the sport, I think. Good that they are trying to further raise the bar.
     
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  23. Metzler

    Metzler Rookie

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    Roddick was blown off the court by Hewitt on a hard court at the Masters-Cup. He is this generation's Stan Smith, not in playing style or demeanor, but in having a"mushroom" career - quick to sprout and equally quick to disappear from the top ten.
     
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  24. AndrewD

    AndrewD Legend

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    Vamos Rafa,

    I wasn't suggesting Roddick wouldn't like those very hot conditions but that it changes the way the courts play and as they get softer they get slower. They can also change during a match as temps in Melbourne can drop suddenly

    Personally I hope he does very well. Haven't had a great chance to see as much of him as we'd have liked so it'd be good if he had a nice run through. He's only young so if not this year I'm sure it wont be long.

    Actually hope Fish does well, keen to see if he's as good as people are saying
     
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  25. alienhamster

    alienhamster Hall of Fame

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    I think Roddick's chances at the Aussie are Aus-some.

    Sorry. I won't ever do that again.

    Seriously, though, the surface doesn't seem to favor anyone particularly in terms of movement--neither the good clay-movers nor the faster hard and grass movers get helped by Rebound Ace.

    The high-bounce aspect really takes away from Hewitt's game, and the surface conditions don't play into Fed's strengths quite as much. It's ideal for Safin and Agassi, and really very good for Roddick (enough time to line up his shots despite the slower pace, the surface takes his kick serve really well, etc.)

    And Roddick will have always have a better chance at Wimbledon in the years Fed goes deep at the French. I'm definitely a believer in the French/Wimbledon combo being too tough to accomplish these days. Over two weeks, those clay-courters will just wear you out and give you a much more sluggish start/transition onto grass. (See Henman, 2003)

    Plus, Roddick's chances at the U.S. (particularly with the home crowd) will always put him up there as a contender.

    I really don't think he's going to fade if he keeps working on his game. He's likely to get a couple more slams in his lifetime. #1 is a different story, but do we even know if this is his primary goal?

    (He's still going to have to get better on clay in order to win Davis Cup.)
     
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  26. NoBadMojo

    NoBadMojo G.O.A.T.

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    nobody is writing roddick off here, and this is probably the most civilized roddick thread i have been a part of ;)
     
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  27. @wright

    @wright Hall of Fame

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    Metzler, yes, Roddick was completely destroyed by Hewitt at the Masters Cup, but you fail to mention he was seriously off that day. He didn't volley a single ball into the court I don't think! This match is irrelevant to whether he'll have a "mushroom" career.
     
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  28. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I totally disagree with you. If we used your accessment Roddick would have a great shot of 3 slams(Aus, Wim, U.S) and Roger a great shot a 1; or Roger a great shot at 1(Wim) and Roddick a great shot at 2(Aus and U.S).

    You should know Roddick needs a hostile crowd to have a chance against Federer. Australian Open is not hostile so Roger wins, gauranteed. U.S open is the only place Andy has a chance against Roger.
     
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  29. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I almost gaurantee Roddick will never win the Australian Open. Roger, Marat, Lleyton(despite his past results)and the youngsters all would beat him there. He will never win the French either. His future slams will come once or twice at Wimbledon, and once or twice more at the U.S open. That is it.
     
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  30. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    Obviously you have never been to Melbourne. It is quite different from Florida. Florida is humid in the summer, but rarely gets up to 100, mostly in low 90s. The heat in Melbourne can be oppressive.
     
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  31. The tennis guy

    The tennis guy Hall of Fame

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    Roddick's best chance is Wimbledon and US Open. As tall as he is, and as much spin he puts on the ball, he generally doesn't like the extreme high bounce ball especially to his backhand side.

    On the other hand, I think Australia Open is the best surface for Federer because the court is very receptive to spin. Federer's variety of spin can really show off there.
     
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  32. dennis1188

    dennis1188 Semi-Pro

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    Things to address before he can touch Federer......
    If Gilbert stays w/ him. If he learns a reliable volley. If he can find a way to beat Nadel next time.
     
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  33. MattNowicki

    MattNowicki Rookie

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    I still fail to see why Andy CAN'T win at the Aussie. Remind me, didn't he get to the QFs this year, and the Semis last year? Didn't he top Marat TWICE since his loss at the Aussie? Don't you think Andy's going to come into Melbourne wanting to make a point- that he's "back" and better than ever with Goldfine? I mean, that's the kind of guy Andy is - in your face - like it or not. Sure, Federer could call on the Muse and win the Aussie again but, being that I still like Roddick, I'd like to see him win and a ghostly silence overtake the TW forum.
     
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  34. VamosRafa

    VamosRafa Hall of Fame

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    I'm answering this without reading all the stuff before it. I just want to say my view to the question posed.

    In my personal view, his best days aren't behind him. He's had some good past days for sure, but there's no reason he won't have some good days in the future.

    He's going to have some great results going forward. He'll win another slam or perhaps more, because even if he can't beat Fed, someone else will get the job done before Andy has to meet him. Or Fed will be injured for a slam or two.

    Just look at the record between Sampras and Agassi, and you can see that one guy didn't win 'em all.

    And I think the USA will win the Davis Cup at some point before Andy retires. With Andy and the Bryans on the team, they just need the right draw, and they get it done. They have a couple other clutch players, such as Fish, Dent and perhaps a healthy Blake, who can help out in that endeavor.

    With respect to Andy's career, it ain't all she wrote. I'm surprised that some folks think it is. :?:
     
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  35. sliceroni

    sliceroni Professional

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    Andy's career isn't over, most think his days on top are over. He'll have a tough battle fighting for the number 2 spot, with a motivated Safin and a stronger Hewitt. Federer will have no problems on any surface against anybody if he's injury free. I think once he's got a taste of being king of the court, he'll want to stay their as long as possible. He has way too much natural talent for anybody to rival him next yr.
    For Roddick, this yr I actually thought coming to net more hurt him, he's never going to be a natural volleyer behind that big serve of his. Hewitt exposed him at the Masters this year. If both are playing good or close to their best I'd go w/ Hewitt, he's training extra hard and he has the game that annoys Roddick.
     
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  36. sm-2004

    sm-2004 New User

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    Guys, he's just started to play this year. He is young, he has a huge talent. He is still growing up...
     
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  37. devila

    devila Banned

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    He's shown that he could beat anyone.
    Many losses were due to his lack of intensity and fitness.
    Sometimes, he gave up in the middle of matches
    when he struggled with injury and weak movement. He has to wait before serving and use less pace.

    Hewitt and Fed's egos got big, but they didn't realize that Roddick experimented with ridiculous shots instead of caring about winning.
    He can actually learn and execute his plan when he cares.
    Not even Henman can volley 80% of the time without slowing down physically.

    He should practice repeatedly with a strong sparring partner.
    A lot of times, Gilbert and his brother just
    tapped back the ball slowly and never made him perfect his shots and running.

    His weight changes rapidly. He never stays fully healthy.
     
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  38. AndrewD

    AndrewD Legend

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    Like I said before, I think he's a good shot at the Oz Open. I actually think Nalbandian will have a big say in things but am pretty sure Roddick will be in the final four.

    On the men's side, since the tournament went to Flinders/Melbourne Park no one player has really gotten on a roll and won the thing more than two years in a row (Agassi the exception, winning 3 of 4 years) so Roddick's got a fine chance and if not 2005 why not the year after. He's still pretty young and remember, Agassi won his first Oz at 25 but took till 30 for the second.

    If nothing else, all this chatter and speculation at least shows a good degree of anticipation for what should be an interesting tournament.
     
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  39. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I agree if Roddick does not have to play any one of Federer, Agassi, Safin, or Hewitt he has a chance to win the event. Good luck to him getting that draw.
     
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  40. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I dont think many are saying he will never win a slam again.
    However he wont do the following things again:

    1)End a year #1 as he did in 2003
    2)Go on a win streak of 2 Masters titles and a grand slam like he did in 2003
    3)Reach 3 slam semis in the same year as he did in 2003

    nor will he ever top it by:

    1)Winning 2 slams in the same year
    2)Winning more than 2 Masters Series titles in one year
    3)Having more than 1 win versus Federer in any given year

    Tell me VamosRafa, do you really see him doing any of those things in the future? Winning a grand slam in a year, maybe more than one year, I could. Beating Federer once in a year, maybe more than one year, I could. Winning two Masters Series titles in one year, I could. Ending a year #2 again at some point I could.
    Beyond that though, when the sky turns purple.
     
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  41. tennis4you

    tennis4you New User

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    With all that said it should be an interesting 2005. We all know how Roddick does against Fed, but how will he do against the other top few? Hewitt schooled him last time they played... 20 points in a row? Yow!
     
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  42. Rickson

    Rickson G.O.A.T.

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    Andy actually had a pretty decent gameplan at Wimbledon when he constantly hit to Roger's backhand. The only problem was that Roger's backhand is almost as good as his forehand. Andy should keep gunning for Roger's backhand because although it's an awesome backhand, he has to keep going at the weaker groundstroke.
     
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  43. tennis4you

    tennis4you New User

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    It is tough, what do you pick on? Fed is soooo good from anywhere on the court it is tough. With Henman serve and volleying and dominating Federer at first I would of siad to try that, but Federer is MUCH better now than he was when Henman was getting the best of him. And the last time they played Federer schooled him.

    I would go to the backhand as well if I was Andy, but I would want to be able to come to the net with the hands of McEnroe to finish off some of the points.
     
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  44. AndrewD

    AndrewD Legend

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    Hitting to the weakness is a good game plan but when you're talking about a player of Federer's ability (or quite a number of high quality players) you run the risk of 'grooving' that shot for them.

    Much better idea, if you're going to attack the weaker shot, to mix it up in terms of pace, spin and placement so you can keep the player off balance and make them doubt the shot a little. Not really sure if Roddick has that change of pace though. Hewitt was trying to play Federer down the centre of the court to stop him getting the angle to hit winners but didnt have the pace of shot to keep him pinned there and frustrate him. Roddick's got the power to possibly be more successful with that one.

    Newcombe suggested quite a few serves right into the body to test Federer's temperament. His suggestion was that for a player like Hewitt it'd motivate them to play better but for someone like Federer who isn't so 'in your face' it might make them go into their shell a touch.

    All supposition though. If Federer turns up and plays the way he did in the US Open final it wont matter what anyone tries against him but it'll be great to watch
     
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  45. devila

    devila Banned

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    AR's problem is his not taking tennis seriously.
    He doesn't prepare for matches, and he spends most times going to exhibitions and charities. He should probably stop playing the Davis Cup.
    As much as he denies it, it's still a big distraction. Joking around with Friends, eating junk food and gaining weight do nothing for his tennis.
     
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  46. davey25

    davey25 Banned

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    I dont think Andy is uncommited. He is obviously very talented, however his talent is not so mythical or overwhelming he could end a year ranked 1, win a U.S open title, almost win a Wimbledon title, reach two other slam semis, two other slam quarters, and end the year after being 1 at 2 if he was not very commited to training. I also have friends who were at the Canadian Open the last two years and tell me he was seen working very hard on practice courts, joking around some but working hard at the same time. It is also well known he started working with a nutrionist this year to improve his conditioning more. I cant imagine somebody who doesnt take it seriously doing that and giving up the tastier foods somewhat. I dont like him at all but I dont get the impression he is uncommited. If he is, he is putting up a great act.
     
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  47. VamosRafa

    VamosRafa Hall of Fame

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    I read the comments above the Andy isn't committed to tennis, and I just :lol: at them.

    But I want to respond to this comment:

    Yes, I have to been to Melbourne, Australia, and it was miserably cold, and wet, although it was very hot in Sydney at the time, as it was in the so-called Aus summer, the month before the Aus Open.

    I have several friends in Melbourne, and they kept telling me that Melbourne weather varies dramatically. And I think it does, at least from what I've seen.

    The weather in Florida is oppressively hot at times. Perhaps it's worse in Melbourne. But perhap we BOTH have to experience both climes at their worst. I have a feeling it would even out.
     
    #47

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