Are we over-exaggerating Federer's 2013 decline?

Discussion in 'Pro Match Results and Discussion' started by FEDERERNADAL13, Nov 5, 2013.

  1. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,453
    I read the Federer match threads, the Federer game threads, and everything on here, and I get the impression that Fed is playing really poorly. I get the impression that he is playing far worse than the beginning of 2013. I get the impression that post back injury Fed has an equal level of play as back injury Fed.

    Then, I watch his matches and view the results.

    He's moving well, hitting well, and winning matches. He's taking Delpo to 3 and winning, pushing the #2 player in the world (and 17 match in a row winner) to three close sets.

    He's competitive with the guys at the top... this reminds me of 2012! During the parts of the season he's been healthy and match ready, he has been competitive with the top guys.

    -At the AO he beat Raonic and Tsonga before falling to a well-rested Murray in 5.
    -In Cincy he was on a roll until he ran in to an inspired Nadal.
    -At Basel he lost to Del Po in a tough match, and in Paris he beat JMDP before falling to a red-hot Djokovic in a three set battle.
    -Now, at the WTF, he pushed Novak to 3 again.

    He's competing with the best, and sooner or later he'll start pulling off wins against them, like in 2012.

    I know that Roger is not the same guy he was in 2006, but I don't think he's that far from his 2012 form! When healthy, he's competing with the best.

    What do you guys think?
     
    #1
  2. MonkeyBoy

    MonkeyBoy Professional

    Joined:
    Nov 18, 2012
    Messages:
    1,486
    Most of the year he's looked like a great-grandfather that hasn't touched a racquet in about 30 years. He's had a few good shows though. Had he tightened up his break point conversation rate he would have smoked Robredo.
     
    #2
  3. corners

    corners Legend

    Joined:
    Jul 31, 2008
    Messages:
    5,441
    He's playing pretty well now, better than he has all year, maybe. But in 2013 he's had worse losses than in 2012, much worse, and no great wins like last year (Djoker and Murray in succession to take Wimbledon, for example.) Yes, his 2011 was bad compared to 2012, and 2013 might just be another bad year, but he is getting older - how long before he just has bad years left? I don't know, but I'm waiting until the end of next year to declare him finished as a Grand Slam contender. People have been writing him off since mid-2007 and he's made a fool of all of them over the past six years.
     
    #3
  4. wy2sl0

    wy2sl0 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    1,572
    Sad to see threads like this. Really hard to believe that you are an objective viewer of tennis. Fan of Roger or not, there is a staggering difference between now and 2-4 years ago. You have to remember there is a very small difference at the top and Roger is hitting shallow, serving poorly on important points, and more than anything really not getting the right positions to hit shots. His racket head speed on the average baseline shot has deteriorated (today was so clear he missed so many easy balls because a lack of RHS). Its all cumulative.
     
    #4
  5. FEDERERNADAL13

    FEDERERNADAL13 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2009
    Messages:
    3,453
    I am not taking 2-4 years ago roger... He is obviously not the player he was in 2009/2010.

    I am saying that his level is not as far off from 2012 as people here make it seem.

    I get the impression that Roger is hopeless against anyone in the top 10, and then I see him push his top 10 opponents and beat some. This is, of course, when healthy.

    I don't see how it is hard to believe that I am an objective viewer here. People say he is far worse than 2012, I see him go 3 sets with Novak instead of 2. People say he has no chance against top 10 guys, I see him beat delpo and tsonga and challenge rafa/Novak.

    I'm not saying he hasn't declined, especially from 2009 as you seem to suggest. I am simply saying that I do not believe he has fallen off as much as people here seem to believe.
     
    #5
  6. Goosehead

    Goosehead Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Nov 2, 2012
    Messages:
    3,597
    Location:
    A bloke in Brighton, England.
    He is where he should be..rank between 5 and 8.
     
    #6
  7. Bud

    Bud Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2007
    Messages:
    31,170
    Location:
    San Diego, CA
    Has he won a single title this year?
     
    #7
  8. Graf=GOAT

    Graf=GOAT Professional

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2013
    Messages:
    1,144
    Maybe if you followed tennis, you'd know.
     
    #8
  9. Bud

    Bud Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2007
    Messages:
    31,170
    Location:
    San Diego, CA
    Flip off you little snot

    I don't follow Federer closely.

    He's been in 3 finals and won Halle
     
    #9
  10. wy2sl0

    wy2sl0 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    1,572
    Nadal is really the only person to kryptonite Federer on the big stage. Not trying to make excuses here but Fed losing to Djokovic in 08 AO was more than likely his mono, and as you can see in US 10 and 11 Federer could have won those matches despite Djokovic being at his best. Murray didn't beat fed in a slam until he was already heavily declining. Federer on a bad day would still win against everyone not named Nadal in a GS match across all three surfaces, but that is just how I see it. His level was truly way higher than people remember. I heard the commentators today saying that Djokovic is playing on a level higher than Federer ever has and I just turned off the volume in disgust. Ignorant people like that drive me nuts. It is always the latest and greatest for most but there is no question in my mind the best tennis we have ever seen was played between 06-09 AO between Fed and Nadal.

    Do I have some secret love affair with Fed or hate for the others? Absolutely not. I don't even really like Rafa but I am objective enough to know the guy is on the highest level with Federer, and probably Rod. Djokovic and Murray are great players but they are not Rogers, Rods or Rafas.

    Ever notice Rafa playing aggressive against Roger, usually moreso than anyone else? That is because Federer is the greatest at ending points the MINUTE he sets up. Well guess what, he can't do that anymore. Unfortunately, he is done.
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2013
    #10
  11. chjtennis

    chjtennis Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2013
    Messages:
    5,009
    If we say Federer has gotten old and that's the biggest single reason for his dismal performance in 2013, we are over-exaggerating it. He isn't playing that much worse now than he did 12 months ago. It seems his back problem was the biggest issue. I'm not saying at 32, you shouldn't expect to slow down. I'm just saying that it's more due to his back pain than his age that he didn't play well for most part of this year. It was obvious he was in serious pain during Indian Wells and the problem started from there. Federer himself told Courier that he hadn't been able to practice properly because of his physical condition for 6 months prior to Cincinnati and that explains everything. At this level, if you can't put everything into your practice, you'll lose sharpness fro your game. 6 months is a long, long time to be short of practice for these top level professional athletes, people. I think we will see Federer of this year's AO come January 2014.
     
    #11
  12. PrinceMoron

    PrinceMoron Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    May 1, 2009
    Messages:
    3,231
    Informative and helpful. How to make friends and influence people.
     
    #12
  13. TheTruth

    TheTruth G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2006
    Messages:
    13,671
    I'm stumped too. Federer has had an up and down year, but when he has upped his level he has competed very well.
     
    #13
  14. tipsa...don'tlikehim!

    tipsa...don'tlikehim! G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 18, 2013
    Messages:
    18,669
    Between Wimbledon and Basel nobody was exaggerating anything believe me.
     
    #14
  15. MarcusInKensington

    MarcusInKensington Semi-Pro

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2010
    Messages:
    571
    Location:
    London, home of the most prestigious slam.
    We are seeing the benefits of his poor year... He's still got a bit left in the tank, while the rest are running on empty, therefore he is getting closer to winning matches (although still managing to lose the majority against the very best). Expect normal service to be resumed in January.
     
    #15
  16. Terry Tibbs

    Terry Tibbs Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    328
    He needs to ditch that larger racquet he's been playing with and go back to the one he has won 17 slams with!
     
    #16
  17. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    9,473
    Location:
    NON-Pigeon City
    Bigger Racquets = less chance of shanking.
     
    #17
  18. Terry Tibbs

    Terry Tibbs Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    328
    I find it hard to fathom. He was hitting the ball very well at the US open and it looked like he was back to something near the old federer but then somehow lost in straights to robredo even though I thought he still played well in that match also. Its frustrating to see him continually get beat by the pusher djokovic particularly at indoor events which should be were federer excells.
     
    #18
  19. Terry Tibbs

    Terry Tibbs Rookie

    Joined:
    Jul 2, 2013
    Messages:
    328
    Doesn't seem to make much difference after last nights performance
     
    #19
  20. dominikk1985

    dominikk1985 Legend

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2011
    Messages:
    6,436
    2013 did not show his true level. of course he is not as good as he was in 2010 but if he was healthy he still would be a lot better and easily a top4 player. no way ferrer would be #3 if fed was playing in his 2010-2012 form.
     
    #20
  21. TennisLovaLova

    TennisLovaLova Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2011
    Messages:
    3,075
    bigger frames also mean more frame to shank :D

    but seriously, in Paris, Federer was 1 volley away to defeat Nole, than of course everything is about his serve nowadays, the only way for him to keep confidence is securing his serving games by serving above 70% 1st serves.
    When it's down he just gets broken and cant develop his offensive weapons.
    I find him very close to Djoko, and the way he played the 1st set vs both Nole and Delpo is another proof that when he plays his best tennis, he's still unbeatable and still produces the most beautiful tennis to watch.
    But that season was truly horrible.
     
    #21
  22. chrischris

    chrischris Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2010
    Messages:
    2,953
    I agree.. small margins that gone against him. Things tend to blend out over time so hopefully for him, they will soon. i think he is plying well enough to be a threat on faster courts.
     
    #22
  23. wy2sl0

    wy2sl0 Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jan 22, 2010
    Messages:
    1,572
    You guys are all crazy. He is grinding wins now with much longer rallies or going for shots he just can't seem to make anymore (for whatever reason). He will never be a Djokovic or Nadal who will rally 50 balls to win a point. His body, fitness, and style of play is not suited to that. The minute he lost the ability to end points at will he was not the same player - and he hasn't been for years. Wimbledon in '12 was just a sign of how good he actually is. The low bounce is suited to him as he is the best player of all time handling low balls and returning as a winner (Nadal very close on slower surfaces). Only chance to beat him on grass (at 80+%) is to spam the backhand as a lefty with the most spin in the history of the game and hope he doesn't play his best.

    Are you guys blind?
     
    #23
  24. cucio

    cucio Legend

    Joined:
    May 13, 2007
    Messages:
    6,913
    Location:
    Tonginchik
    Isn't the expression "over-exaggerating" an over-exaggeration?
     
    #24
  25. Antonio Puente

    Antonio Puente Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2009
    Messages:
    2,205
    Location:
    Buenavista
    Overall, Fed hasn't been playing poorly lately. Both Djokovic matches were there for the taking. Fed has, however, turned into one of the worst big point players around. He's turned into Tommy Haas in those moments.
     
    #25
  26. fps

    fps Legend

    Joined:
    Jun 30, 2007
    Messages:
    5,437
    Location:
    Brighton, England
    He's been so obviously so much slower with his movement, and less explosive, that's been true for a while but it's been clear as day this season in particular that he's struggling with niggles which may well not now go away.
     
    #26
  27. chicagodude

    chicagodude Professional

    Joined:
    Oct 4, 2013
    Messages:
    948
    I agree with you taht it has been overexaggerated by many on this forum.

    He is definitely still a very good player and capable of beating all the top guys if he's on. He has been pretty consistent during the year in terms of level too, just not consistent enough in all his matches.

    The main thing this year is that he seems to have more temporary lapses during a match, and especially that he seems to have problems with big points. The former could well be because of back issues, who knows.

    What worries me more is that when he starts losing to the big guys in a match, he seems to be thinking it's over too soon...
     
    #27
  28. MichaelNadal

    MichaelNadal Bionic Poster

    Joined:
    Jul 6, 2007
    Messages:
    30,288
    Location:
    Orlando FL
    He's not aggressive enough anymore at all. He looks like he's trying to counterpunch these days o_O
     
    #28
  29. TheF1Bob

    TheF1Bob Banned

    Joined:
    Dec 4, 2011
    Messages:
    9,473
    Location:
    NON-Pigeon City
    Fed is old. The only reason he has his kids around is to lean on them when moving about.
     
    #29
  30. Federer20042006

    Federer20042006 Banned

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2012
    Messages:
    2,173
    I disagree. I think we are under-exaggerating it.
     
    #30
  31. StrongerThanAll

    StrongerThanAll Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2013
    Messages:
    340
    It's been a really bad year, I won't lie, and I'm a HUGE Fed fan. WE'll see next year if it's decline or a bad year. Just for the record he's been pretty good against Delpo twice and Novak twice.
     
    #31
  32. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2007
    Messages:
    4,408
    He's till one of the eight best players in the world, but now he's at the lower end when we're used to him being at the higher end. In the grand scheme of things, he had a pretty good year - made it deep at some big tournaments and won a sixth Halle title - but relative to his success even in 2010 or 2011, he's had a very poor year. That's life, though. He's old. I think he'll still have moments where he shines - he could even win another Masters or slam perhaps - but it'll happen with even less consistency as time passes.
     
    #32
  33. Mainad

    Mainad G.O.A.T.

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2011
    Messages:
    13,705
    Location:
    Manchester, UK.
    2013 is the first year he hasn't won a big title ie. a Slam, a WTF or a Masters tournament since 2001! (Of course we don't know yet how he will fare in this year's WTF but, based on his results there so far, it is almost certain he won't win that either). It is also the first year he has failed to make at least 1 Slam final since 2002!

    So his results for 2013 certainly indicate a marked decline on any previous year since he first became a top 10 player in 2002 and that is no exaggeration.

    As to whether we are over-exaggerating the extent of his decline, that will depend on how he performs in 2014 and whether he can start to win some big titles again!
     
    #33
  34. robertharris

    robertharris Banned

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2013
    Messages:
    313
    I doubt that will happen. When he plays Nadal or Djokovic he has to play out of his skin just to win a set, and still not the match. Against Murray or Del Potro he can win but has to play his A-game to even have a chance. Too much would have to go right. He would have to avoid Nadal or Djokovic completely. He will never beat 1 of those 2 in a best of 5 ever again, maybe a best of 3. He would then need to probably play only 1 of Murray, Del Potro, Berdych, maybe Tsonga, and peak bigtime for that match. Beating 2 of them in a best of 5 would probably be too much. So he would need a great draw, and be able to fight past a couple of dangerous lower opponents happening to play well on the day, who also believe they can beat Federer who these days is just a middling top 10 player; but a much bigger scalp than a typical one would be.
     
    #34
  35. chjtennis

    chjtennis Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2013
    Messages:
    5,009
    Federer fans will always say it's because he's old he's not as good any more. True to a certain degree. Fans of other players will say their favorite players have gotten better and they are now starting to beat Fed. Again, true to a certain degree.

    I think if we take a stance somewhere in the middle, that will be the most objective opinion. It's obvious Federer is old at 32 and his athleticism is not like what it was. However, without his back injury, he still seems as agile and athletic as he was in 2012, when he became no.1. I think everyone is writing him off too early. If he comes back injury-free and well prepared, he will win tournaments next year. I don't think he will be able to beat Nadal under normal circumstances, but he will still beat Djokovic and Murray from time to time. He may also win odd slam or two. You don't have to overplay his age to protect his legacy as one of the GOATs, it's already safe. You also don't have to downplay his age factor to make your favorite players look better because at 32, Fed won't be the same as when he was 25. I predict another strong year for Federer in 2014, in which we will see him come back to top 4.
     
    #35

Share This Page