Aussie Open will be veeeeeeery interesting

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by Lotto, Sep 19, 2009.

  1. Lotto

    Lotto Professional

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    For one, when Federer dominated the game, we always expected him to win it. In his prime, it was always expected that Roger would win AO, Wimbledon and US Open...and some years maybe only Wimbledon, US Open........this year however.....Roger loses to Rafa in the final, wins Roland Garros and Wimbledon and loses to Del Potro in the US Open final. As defending champion, Rafa is clearly going to be a favourite, as probably the greatest hardcourt player ever, Roger is going to be a favourite aswell.....Del Potro, having one the US, beating Rafa and Roger back to back is also going to be a big favourite, and then you have Murray and Djokovic.

    I think the Aussie Open will be intriguing and that it will tell alot about the current crop, especially rafa, roger and del po....will Rogers semi-final streak eventually be beaten?? Could you imagine Federer losing early at a slam, like in the 3rd or 4th round?! That hasn't happened for 5 and a half years now. Also, will the defending champion be "fully recovered" and start mounting a challenge to take back the no.1 ranking. And will Del Potro prove to be a "Djokovic" in the sense that he has only won 1 slam, can't cope with the pressure etc. and will fall by the "wayside" and maybe grab 1-2 slams in the future which Djokovic is capable of.
    And then, what of our little friend, Andrew Murray. Will he finally beat his critics and win a slam? The 2010 Aussie Open is certainly going to be intriguing.
     
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  2. ceberus

    ceberus Guest

    They'll hype up Murray again and he'll lose whatever chances he has to win the AO. IMO, the four semi finalists will be the same as the USO, but if Nadal's at 100 percent, he'll be the favorite to win it.
     
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  3. slice bh compliment

    slice bh compliment G.O.A.T.

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    I wonder if the court will be slow again. That'll make a difference.

    I think Del Potro will not slump. He's cool. Very humble, very hungry. I do think slow courts will hurt him (also Roddick, Tsonga and the Forehandos)...but the slower courts would/could help Roger, Rafa, Djoko and the Muzzer.

    Aaaannnyway...it's too early for the Oz Oipen.

    I'm into Davis Cup right now.....not really into the upcoming indoor season....definitely most curious about the ATP year-end thing in London. That's going to be huge.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2009
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  4. Good post Lotto, however, id say that YEC in o2-arena in London is gonna even more interesting imo! And a lot closer into the future
     
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  5. aphex

    aphex Banned

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    http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/EN/betting/e/540836/Men-s-Australian-Open.html
     
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  6. Chelsea_Kiwi

    Chelsea_Kiwi Hall of Fame

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    I don't think Nadal is "clearly" the favourite. My order of who will win it:

    1) Federer
    2) Murray
    3) Del Potro
    4) Djokovic/Nadal
    5) Roddick

    Can't see anyone else getting into the semis, unless there is a Tsonga or Soderling run.

    EDIT: Perhaps Verdasco?
     
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  7. tacou

    tacou Legend

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    it always is
     
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  8. BigServer1

    BigServer1 Legend

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    I agree. I think that we will see the Murray hype machine in full gear again, but I think he will surprise some people and make a semi or possibly even the final.

    It will also be interesting to see how DelPo handles being considered a true favorite and how Fed and Nadal look to start 2010. I know it's only September, but I am already excited about next season.
     
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  9. borg number one

    borg number one Legend

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    I agree with this thread topic for sure. There are certainly a lot of moving parts now. I think:

    Federer- Big Challenge that may shape 2010 year considerably. I think it will be quite difficult for him to win it, but it's certainly possible. That US Open loss will be tough to take and we'll see how he responds from it. Will he bounce back? I think he may win 1 slam at the most next year, and the Australian may be his best shot. Why now W? If he doesn't win the AO, and also does not do well at the French (reaching the finals at least), things will be tough at Wimbledon, because he'll face a potentially SURGING Nadal. Then, the US Open will be EVEN TOUGHER for him to win next year than it was this year.

    Nadal- He's my pick for now, given that I think he'll solve the injury puzzle by then well enough to defend the title. Nadal may very well be very PO'd right now and is probably VERY HUNGRY. He realizes that if he is able to pull it off, it could change the dynamics at the top for the foreseeable future (Nadal 1., Federer 2.).

    Murray- Wrist injury and lack of clutch play could mean no chance to win the AO this coming year.

    Del Potro- Will be a force to be reckoned with and will likely reach the semi, if not the final.

    Djokovic- A bigger threat than Murray, but will likely not beat either Nadal or Federer there.

    So, I would rank their chances as 1. Nadal 2. Federer 3. Del Potro 4. Djokovic 5. Murray.
     
    Last edited: Sep 19, 2009
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  10. sureshs

    sureshs Bionic Poster

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    I think the AO 2010 will start two trends:

    Decline of Federer
    Decline of the Williams sisters
     
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  11. borg number one

    borg number one Legend

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    I tend to agree fully SURESHS. Exactly.
     
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  12. PCXL-Fan

    PCXL-Fan Hall of Fame

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    I'm suprised you don't have Nadal in your top 3 let alone your top 5. By january next year Nadal should be fresh and have recovered from his abdominal tear.

    I don't see why he can't fully recover from his wrist injury by then.
     
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  13. Lotto

    Lotto Professional

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    #13
  14. lenderbender

    lenderbender Rookie

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    Personally I just want to see some more verdasco ownage (ish)
     
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  15. ubermeyer

    ubermeyer Hall of Fame

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    I disagree. Once again, Murray is being seriously overhyped.

    1) Federer
    2) Nadal
    3) Del Potro
    4) Djokovic
    5) Murray
    6) Roddick/Tsonga/Verdasco/Gonzalez
     
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  16. pmerk34

    pmerk34 Legend

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    It would be more interesting of the matches were not on at 3am
     
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  17. tennisdad65

    tennisdad65 Hall of Fame

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    Nothing new being said here. It does not take a genius to figure out that 28-32 is the downhill part of a tennis players career. It is sad that the best hope for the other players is for these players to get older/worse rather than catch up to their level at their peaks.
     
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  18. cueboyzn

    cueboyzn Professional

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    I disagree. Federer has only just turned 28. Sampras won the US Open in 2002 when he was 32 am I right? Agassi won his last Grand Slam the AO when he was what, 33? Federer is a supremely fit athlete, easily equal to AGassi and superior to Sampras in terms of athleticism and fitness. The only question will be does he have the desire to continue winning Grand Slam titles now that he possesses the All Time Record and career Slam.

    If Fed had won the US Open I think he would have headed to Australia with the mission of creating his "Roger Slam" (4 Slams in a row). Now that this is no longer possible I think he will obviously try to win but the intensity could go away a bit. (I hope he proves me wrong however).
     
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  19. cueboyzn

    cueboyzn Professional

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    I still think Roger has a good 2-3-4 years in him and a few Wimbledons, the odd Australian and 1 or 2 US Opens. He could still end up with 19 or 20 Grand Slam titles by the end of his career if he stays motivated.
     
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  20. smack that

    smack that Semi-Pro

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    r u sure about this?
     
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  21. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    That would be my order too except switch Del Potro and Murray. Actually I am tempted to put Soderling or even Verdasco over Roddick. I really think Roddick's Wimbledon final will be his last stand in a way.
     
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  22. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    While alot could change between now and then to rank Nadal as the favorite for any near future hard court slam at the moment is laughable.
     
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  23. i suck at tennis

    i suck at tennis Rookie

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    YES!!!! My thoughts exactly.
     
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  24. Feña14

    Feña14 Legend

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    We saw how upset Federer was last year, i'm pretty sure he'll want to put it right and i'd back him to do so.
     
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  25. cuddles26

    cuddles26 Banned

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    These would be my odds for winning the Australian Open right now:

    Federer 45%
    Del Potro 25%
    Murray 20%
    Djokovic 5%
    Nadal 5%
    Soderling 3%
    Verdasco 3%
    Roddick 2%
    Everyone else combined 2%

    Translation: one of Federer, Del Potro, or Murray will win it.
     
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  26. IvanAndreevich

    IvanAndreevich Legend

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    Murray should not be ahead of DP, Djokovic, or Nadal. AO surface isn't really that great for him.
     
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  27. federerdomination

    federerdomination Semi-Pro

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    "Rafa is clearly going to be a favourite, as probably the greatest hardcourt player ever"

    WTH??? Greatest HC player? Not even close. 1 Slam on HC
     
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  28. Ledigs

    Ledigs Hall of Fame

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    Nadal has surpassed Fed's record at his age. Granted, Fed is probably the best player ever and it will be difficult for Nadal to duplicate but he is not waiting around for Fed to get old before he beats him.
     
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  29. DownTheLine

    DownTheLine Hall of Fame

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    What?? LOL
     
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  30. mzzmuaa

    mzzmuaa Semi-Pro

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    ^His grammar is a bit off, but he's referring to Federer with the second clause.
     
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  31. ubermeyer

    ubermeyer Hall of Fame

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    soderling, wtf?

    Nadal is defending champion, Murray has less of a chance than Roddick or Tsonga, and Djokovic won in '08.
     
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  32. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    What is your basis for Murray having less chance than Roddick and Tsonga. Roddick's last big hard court slam final was when exactly!?! Tsonga was a finalist there in January 2008 but what has he done since then. Just pure nonsense, you must really hate Murray (and Murray isnt a favorite of mine either but lets be real here).

    Djokovic and Nadal atleast you have more argument for. However it is pretty clear who has been the better overall hard court player in the last 14 months between Djokovic and Murray, even with Murray's dissapointing slam showings. It is also pretty clear who is more of a threat to the other top players on a hard court right now (other than possibly Nadal). As for Nadal he was at the absolute peak of his own confidence, fitness, and form for a stretch of time that extended into the first half of this year. He absolutely needs to be there to have any shot of winning a big hard court event when it is his own least strong surface and virtually all the other top guys favorite one. It seems he has a long way to go to reach that point again, and even if he does some of the aforementioned hard court preferentials are alot more confident than they were early 2008 (Federer and Del Potro for starters).

    Soderling is atleast more of a threat than Tsonga is, probably more than Roddick is outside of grass. The guy played some amazing tennis in each of the last 3 slams, but was lucky to run into Federer too soon in the last 2. He was playing well enough to beat nearly everyone else.
     
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  33. ubermeyer

    ubermeyer Hall of Fame

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    Tsonga is definitely a contender.

    Murray's last Australian Opens- 1R ( 2008 ), 4R ( 2009 )
    Tsonga- F ( 2008 ), QF ( 2009 ).

    On what basis is Murray more likely to do well at the AO than Tsonga?

    Roddick defeated him at Wimbledon, so Roddick will probably do better than Murray at the AO. Cilic smashed Murray at the US Open.

    There is a reason why Murray is consistently the "favorite" to win slams, and consistently does not. He does extremely well in best of 3, but "Slams are a whole different animal" - Roger Federer. Murray has been having disappointing showings at Slams recently. His only "good" ones were the US Open last year, and Wimbledon this year. Tsonga has been doing quite well at the Australian Open. The AO isn't even Murray's favorite, it's second last to the FO. The AO is Tsonga's favorite, I believe. Djokovic and Nadal easily have a better chance than Murray, I won't even argue this as this is so obvious. Roddick is the only "iffy" one that maybe he won't do better than Murray, but I'm pretty sure he will, we'll see.
     
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  34. flying24

    flying24 Banned

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    A dark horse perhaps but much less of a contender for the title than Murray.

    Murray has consistently done much better than Tsonga on hard courts ever since that Australian Open dream run Tsonga had. Even last years Australian Open Tsonga did not actually do better when they lost to the same player and Murray in a tougher match.

    Grass is not hard courts. The only surface Roddick stands a real chance these days is grass. On hard courts Murray is clearly superior right now.

    Right I guess you are going to say based on that Cilic is more of a contender for the Australian Open too now? :roll:

    I never said he should be the #1 favorite to win. I agree he shouldnt be. However there is no doubt he still should be one of the favorites and moreso than the guys you are naming.

    I agree Roger should be the favorite.

    I agree he has been dissapointing in the hard court slams relative to expectations but that doesnt suddenly mean even bit contenders should be over him in the odds.

    I disagree completely. Murray has been lucky the last 2 Australian Opens to run into a couple red hot opponents. Tsonga playing the tournament of his life thus far (if you think that is even close to how Tsonga normally plays you are crazy) and Verdasco last year also playing the tournament of his life thus far. There is no way Wimbledon is a better surface for him than rebound ace.

    I disagree. It just happens to be the tournament he got lightning in a bottle and played out of his mind once, but overall it isnt neccessarily his best surface. On average he should have an even better shot at Wimbledon and the U.S Open with his game than the Australian Open.

    ROTFL based on what exactly!?!? Djokovic hasnt even won a Masters title on hard courts in 18 months now (unless you count the Masters Cup), and is losing all his matches to Murray, Federer, or Roddick on a hard court of late. Murray has had better results and won all his meetings with Murray on a hard court since last August you realize.

    As for Nadal watching him play this summer on hard courts should already say enough that he has a ways to go before he is a big title threat on his worst surface.

    I hope for your sake Murray doesnt win the title since it seems clear your head would explode if that happens. Look I agree Murray is overhyped in many corners and it gets annoying. However you are taking it to the other extreme.
     
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  35. Cesc Fabregas

    Cesc Fabregas Legend

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    Remember people, this is a slow hardcourt. That means it favours Nadal, Federer and Djokovic the most.
     
    #35
  36. Baikalic

    Baikalic Semi-Pro

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    as someone else said, the poster was referring to Federer. The second phrase should have been a separate sentence and then it would have been much more clear.

    My top 3 are

    1. Federer
    2. Del Po
    3. Nadal

    The rest of the field does not have a good enough chance to be ranked accurately. If someone other than these 3 is going to win it, it will be under extraordinary circumstances (a la Tsonga AO 2008 streak)
     
    #36
  37. slice bh compliment

    slice bh compliment G.O.A.T.

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    Yeah, I read it that way, too. He meant Roger, which does make sense.

    Re: Tsonga's Oz Oipen streak in 08 (also see: Baghdatis and Forehando Gonzalez, Schuettler, et al), I think that's the beauty of a slam at that time of year. But there is less parity in the men's game now. I'm all for a surprise finalist again, but I'm thinking your list FTW (plus Muzzer if he is healthy).

    My head:
    Rog, Raf, Murray. Dark horse: Il Djoko. If the courts play somewhat fast: JMDP and his amazing technicolor forehand.

    I want to see:
    Tsonga or one of the Forehandos win it.
     
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  38. Lotto

    Lotto Professional

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    About Roger being the greatest hardcourt player of all time? Yes, pretty sure, he does have more hardcourt grand slams then anyone else and does have that 56 match winning streak, I'm pretty confident of it.

    Oh, and sorry, I was referring to Roger. I typed this post pretty quickly and I was rushing for coaching one morning. Bad Grammar. My bad.
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2009
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  39. slice bh compliment

    slice bh compliment G.O.A.T.

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    You have a grammar coach? Thats sew grate!

    kidding, bro' we got it.
    BEst regards,
    --slice
     
    #39
  40. ~ZoSo~

    ~ZoSo~ Semi-Pro

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    If the ao boils down to a fed nadal final, theres only one winner imo
     
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  41. Badger

    Badger Semi-Pro

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    I sure hope so. Can't wait. But it's so long: four months!
     
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  42. Baikalic

    Baikalic Semi-Pro

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    It is interesting that these streaks have also happened at the end of the year at the US Open. The last four finals have showcased players on streaks: JMDP, Murray, Djokovic, and Roddick. I think however the nature of those streaks don't carry the same sort of "hot streak" tennis that we've seen at the AO.

    I'm kind of down on Djokovic because of his fitness problems in the heat there, unless Todd Martin is cooking something special in the off season.

    the way i see it, i would not bet on a a final including those two. Remember: JMDP has to be on a side of the draw :).
     
    Last edited: Sep 20, 2009
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