Being no 1 again is possible for Federer?

Discussion in 'General Pro Player Discussion' started by TheTopSpin, Dec 27, 2011.

  1. TheTopSpin

    TheTopSpin New User

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    What do you think about this guys?After a stunning end season,this wont surprise me.
     
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  2. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

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    It is certainly possible and we all know he is capable of.

    But if I have to bet money on it, I bet his ranking at the end of 2012 will be lower than now.
     
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  3. TheTopSpin

    TheTopSpin New User

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    the Swiss will begin the year a massive 5,460 points behind No. 1 Novak Djokovic.

    ...

    “Well, that’s a long way to go, but who knows? One day maybe I’ll get there,” Federer said of the hunt for No. 1. “I had to just kind of ignore it at the moment because I know that Novak with his unbelievable year has kind of put that very far from me, but then again, all of the sudden you play well and you win 17 matches in a row and you’re back where you at least feel if you win a Slam or something, you’re right in the conversation again, so that’s interesting and that excites me.”

    http://www.atpworldtour.com/News/Tennis/2011/12/Features/Federer-Will-Chase-No1-Ranking.aspx
     
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  4. celoft

    celoft Guest

    He could for a short time.
     
    #4
  5. Hitman

    Hitman G.O.A.T.

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    And that would be all he needs....
     
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  6. cc0509

    cc0509 G.O.A.T.

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    Possible but very unlikely IMO.
     
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  7. ultradr

    ultradr Hall of Fame

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    indoor season is increasingly becoming irrelevant these days. top players often tank the season or take their injuries and recoup during that time.

    so i'm not sure Federer actually resurrected. top 10 players will be increasingly
    problem for him in 2012.
     
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  8. FlashFlare11

    FlashFlare11 Hall of Fame

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    It may not be a "resurrection" for Roger, but the fact that he is basically the only player who takes full advantage of the indoor season gives him an advantage in points until at least after the US Open. The rest will be decided upon how well the top 3 do until the USO. Murray can gain a lot during the spring hard court season. It's definitely possible for Roger, though.
     
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  9. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    In the race to Shanghai 2012, he's 3000 points clear of Murray, Djokovic, Nadal and Del Potro. So sure, he has a chance. I'd say a 10% chance now, 30-40 % if he is to win the AO next month.
     
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  10. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    What's happening in Shanghai in 2012 and what are these 3000 points you are talking about? If you're talking about year end 2012 rankings then Roger currently has the same number of points as Novak, Murray and Nadal i.e zero.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2011
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  11. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Nothing. Fed's one and only chance to ever be no. 1 again is after that tournament I think. After that, with 3500 points to defend, he'll lose it again most defenitely. His season won't be good enough to finish the year no. 1, but he might not be 3500 points behind after US Open, so IF he plays an asian swing, he'll have LOTS of post-USO points after Shanghai, maybe giving him that extra week or 2 he needs on Pete.
     
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  12. batz

    batz G.O.A.T.

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    OK mate - sorry for the mis-understanding.
     
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  13. CocaCola

    CocaCola Professional

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    Let's be realistic. It's highly unlikely that he'll do it. He constantly needs to outperform Djokovic at MS1000 tournaments throughout the year, not to mention the slams.
    It would be nice to see him grabbing no.1 spot for at least those 2 more weeks but I think his chances are very slim.
     
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  14. mattennis

    mattennis Hall of Fame

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    He can do it.
     
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  15. Cup8489

    Cup8489 Legend

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    if he wins a couple of masters and a couple of slams, I dont think it will matter beyond that. or just a couple of slams, even.
     
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  16. Bobby Jr

    Bobby Jr Legend

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    If Federer has a moderately better first 2/3 of the season and Djokovic slips up almost anywhere in one of the three slams he won the points will be a lot closer than they seem. It may be a 5000+ points gap but the trailing player doesn't have to earn nearly that many points to overtake if the leading player is losing piles of his points at the same time.

    My opinion is Federer will struggle to get #1 ever again. On the same token I doubt Djokovic will ever have such a successful first 2/3 of his season again. Especially this coming year.
     
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  17. Eternity

    Eternity Semi-Pro

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    You probably didn't mean it this way but your post makes it sound like it will be relatively straightforward to do this. But who know if there's no dominant player next year maybe he won't need multiple slams. I think it's possible but also more likely Novak will stay no. 1.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2011
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  18. slickerthansleek

    slickerthansleek Rookie

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    It's not just about Fed gaining points, the points are also there for Djokovic and Nadal to lose too.

    I think if Federer can beat Djokovic at the AO and rattle him, he can gain the upper hand.
     
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  19. OddJack

    OddJack Legend

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    I was surprised that Gimelstob predicted this happening for a short time.
    Needs huge help from Djoko, an injury would do it, which is likely.
    All he needs is couple of week.
    Whats important is that if he takes Nadal's ranking then Nadal can go out to Djok in semis, which would be huge boost for his chances winning FO or Wimby
     
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  20. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Djokovic and Nadal have so many points to defend in the first half of the season that I wouldn't be surprised to see Federer sneak into the conversation. I'm doubtful he'll actually get there, but I'd be ecstatic if he does. It'd be nice to see him break another amazing record.
     
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  21. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Don't think he will get back to #1 and don't particulary care, I'd like to see him win an additional slam(or maybe even two if he sticks around long enough. He's been #1 more than enough, few more weeks aren't gonna change anything.
     
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  22. zagor

    zagor Talk Tennis Guru

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    Still it's impressive for a CC specialist to have two excellent indoors season in a row, right Fasdtunn ?
     
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  23. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Won't happen. We have to be logical here. As amazingly talented as Federer is, we all need to realize that he won tournaments near the end of the season when the Slams for the year had already been decided and the top 2 players in the world had basically finished the season.

    He will probably be in the fight of his life anywhere in the first week of the Australian Open.
     
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  24. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    Federer has to defend a bunch of semifinals and finals himself. At most, he may get close to Nadal but nowhere near Djokovic.
     
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  25. MariaRafael

    MariaRafael Banned

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    Sure. Anything is possible. I can reverse my sex, join ATP and become their No.1. Things do happen.
     
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  26. Mike Sams

    Mike Sams Legend

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    How do you figure that you could become No.1 in the ATP, Maria?
     
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  27. MariaRafael

    MariaRafael Banned

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    I've already posted my potential program. See above.

    Actually it was a prankish answer to a stupid question. The actual answer would be "no". Federer's No.1 train is gone.

    Notwithstanding, he can stay in top 10 for some 5-6 years and win big things. Maybe he can follow Pete Sampras in this respect who stopped caring about his ranking and cared for slams only after 28-29.
     
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  28. Clarky21

    Clarky21 Banned

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    I'm not sure if he can get back to #1,but he will most likely take over the #2 spot by April if not sooner.
     
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  29. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Yes, but he has a lot more lee-way. If Djokovic finishes runner-up in Australia, he'll have lost 800 points. Federer only won 720 points at the Australian last year, so unless Djokovic wins it again, Federer will have narrowed the gap between himself and Djokovic regardless of his own results. If he makes the final or wins it, then there's an even bigger swing in points.

    Djokovic is in the exact same situation in the first five Masters events. Even saying optimistically that he defends three of the five, he'll have lost at least 1200 points, and that's only if he reaches the final of both of those he doesn't defend. Throw in a possible early upset and the tables can really turn. Of course, Federer would have to be consistent himself, winning a couple big titles here and there and reaching plenty of finals and semis. And Nadal would have to be less consistent than he was last year. It's a stretch, but there's definitely a shot for Federer to take back the number one ranking, if only for a couple weeks.
     
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  30. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    "race to Shanghai 2012" means that we're only looking at the points gathered AFTER Shanghai 2011 (and Federer has won 3 tournaments = 3000 points, while the rest did miserably), Federer has to collect as many points possible till shanghai 2012 cause this is probably his final chance to reach no 1, I made a separate thread about it in the pro match section
     
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  31. MariaRafael

    MariaRafael Banned

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    Have you ever heard about Nadal? Federer will have to close the gap between himself and Nadal to begin with. Looking at the previous history of their relationship it doesn't look very probable.
     
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  32. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    Looking at their previous HISTORY of their relationship Federer has been more often ahead of Nadal rather than the other way round and by quite some margin.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2011
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  33. MariaRafael

    MariaRafael Banned

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    Since Nadal has never been behind Fed in their H2H, they were on par only once, and in all the other cases Nadal was the leader, it's not Fed's achievement that he stayed ahead of Nadal. It's a lot of luck and a lot of chokers who lost their matches in the locker room.
     
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  34. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Hmm? Historically, Federer's been ahead of Nadal more often than not.
     
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  35. roysid

    roysid Professional

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    He need to win titles. Only grand slams won't do but usually when u win GS, u win a few Masters 1000 too.

    It will be nearly impossible for Djokovic to win so many again. He will drop points.

    Roger needs to win the AO and go to No. 2 to start off. Then he can target No. 1
     
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  36. tennis_pro

    tennis_pro G.O.A.T.

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    you mean the very same chokers who beat Nadal only to get bageled by Federer in the later rounds?

    it's Nadal's problem he never had the aura of invincibility as Fed did
     
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  37. FlashFlare11

    FlashFlare11 Hall of Fame

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    Federer has never trailed Nadal at any point in his career. Greatness in tennis is determined by many thing, such as GS titles, weeks at No. 1, records, etc. No one will look at the head-to-head down the line (of course, even that's skewed with 14 out of 26 being on one surface). Nadal has and will probably never be ahead of Federer in those departments.

    Secondly, where do you think that "aura of invincibility" comes from? Let me tell you something, it comes from winning. So what if Federer won some matches in the locker room? It just shows that he was too good to play against and the lower ranked players reflected that thought. And even at the age of 30, he still instills fear into those who play him.

    It's not Federer's fault that more players feel like they can challenge Nadal. Nadal never dominated like Federer did. Nadal doesn't have the mass collection of titles and records that Federer has. It's only natural that more players would feel like they could challenge him, and they should. Now, at the age of 25, Nadal is being challenged by players on tour you would never have thought would beat him a year ago.

    You simply feel like Nadal is being robbed of everything he's supposedly "entitled" to, whereas that's simply not ther case. Nadal was beaten by better players on those days. The bitterness shows in your comments about Federer and, especially, Djokovic.
     
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  38. merlinpinpin

    merlinpinpin Hall of Fame

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    Sure, but should he win the AO while defeating Djokovic in the semis, the Serb would lose almost half this huge lead (2,560 points to be precise), so you never know.

    AO sure looks crucial for Federer, though. That, and the spring HC season, when he'll have to steal points from Djokovic and Nadal (possibly with the help of Murray, and maybe Delpo/Tsonga).

    So, stay tuned for 2012, this promises to be a very interesting year... ;)
     
    #38
  39. Sentinel

    Sentinel Bionic Poster

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    Not probable, but possible, yes.
     
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  40. joeri888

    joeri888 G.O.A.T.

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    Which got him washed up, burned out, at what, 29/30? He scraped a final grandslam title and quit. Fed loves the game. He handles himself well (unlike Pete who was willing to play 8 weeks straight for the record books, which he is perfectly allowed to though) and just wants to play. He loves competing. Ripping Murray of the no. 3 ranking still brings joy to mr. Federer. I love that, and I think it's the best way to handle things. The motivation and passion and pleasure from within is more difficult to retain than the legs.
     
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  41. tusharlovesrafa

    tusharlovesrafa Hall of Fame

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    What if fed starts with an unbeaten streak of 41 matches then Novak beats him in RG semis..
     
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  42. Frankenstine

    Frankenstine New User

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    Nope, 2012 will be Del Potro's year!
     
    #42
  43. tudwell

    tudwell Hall of Fame

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    Looking at Nadal's results last year and comparing them to his results in previous years ... he actually won fewer points in the first five Masters events than he usually does. Last year he got 3400 points from one win and four finals. In 2010 he got 3720 with three wins and two semis. In 2009 he got 3780 with three wins, a final, and a quarterfinal. You have to go all the way back to 2008 to find a year he didn't win more than 3000 points in the first five Masters events (assuming 2008 had the same point distribution - I can't remember when the point system changed). And then go back to 07 and he had the exact same results as 09.

    So basically, despite reaching an unprecedented five consecutive finals last year, Nadal normally gains even more points from the first five Masters events. If tradition holds, he should actually gain points by the French Open, especially if he does better than a quarterfinal at the Australian. Sure, Djokovic will most likely shed a bunch of points, but Federer needs a major slip-up from Nadal to get a whiff at the number one ranking.
     
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  44. jackson vile

    jackson vile Legend

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    LOL, well that is **** logic right?

    But seriously, if you blink you will miss it, never underestimate this "old crippled man".
     
    #44
  45. Fedchamp

    Fedchamp Semi-Pro

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    Look, I'm one of the biggest Fed-fans out there, but even I have to say no. I think he can compete well with the top 4 , and I think he can beat Murray consistantly at the slams. I think he has a good chance against Djok & Nadal at Wimbolden and the US , but he would need to win at least 2-3 slams and several 1000 tournaments. Can't see him doing that.
    I think he's got a couple more slams left in him at the very best.
     
    #45
  46. Laurie

    Laurie Professional

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    Federer finished 2010 in similar fashion with 3 indoor tournaments in a row including the Year end championships. Then after winning a pre Aussie warm up in January, didn't win another tournament for 10 months. Therefore, I think we will have to see if next year will be any different. I think with many guys refreshed after the break and playing outdoors, Federer will find a lot of players can still beat him in big matches.

    Let's see what happens.
     
    #46
  47. li0scc0

    li0scc0 Hall of Fame

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    Seriously, though, do you think DelPo will crack the Top 6? If so, a big accomplishment.
     
    #47
  48. [Z]engin

    [Z]engin Rookie

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    He'll have a good shot, if he wins the AO.
     
    #48
  49. djokovicgonzalez2010

    djokovicgonzalez2010 G.O.A.T.

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    I think he could briefly recapture it if Nadal is in legitimate decline not a slump, because Nadal is fading so quickly and all of Djokovic's points are pre-indoor season
     
    #49
  50. TheMusicLover

    TheMusicLover Legend

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    The Voice of Reason. :)
    Impossible is nothing, though. Even Murray might grab the #1 spot for a while! ;)
     
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